18 June 2021 CLIMATE FROM EARTH AND SPACE – ESA Climate ...

CLIMATE FROM EARTH AND SPACE – ESA

Climate from Space – communicating beyond science and policy

18 June 2021

AGENDA• Tracking climate change: ESA’s long-term records• Climate change from space: research results• New ESA missions• Tools for new audiences

Carbon dioxide – then and now

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

CO2

ppm

Atmospheric CO2 concentration

803,719 BCE 2020600,00 BCE 400,00 BCE 200,00 BCE

§ Highest for over 800,000 years

§ Unprecedented emissions in 20th

century

§ CO2 and CH4 are at their highest levels on record

Bereiter et al, GRL, 2015

Taking the Pulse of our Planet

ESA’s Vision for EO

Satellites25 under development

15 in operation

ESA-Developed Earth Observation Missions

Tracking climate change: ‘Essential Climate Variables’

• Established 2010• €160M • 450 researchers• 13 now operational

(Copernicus)

CARBON from space • In 2020, despite

lockdown, CO2 hit 413 ppm

• CO2 has a clear upward trend 0.6% per year

• Methane is also up 0.4% per year

SEA ICE shrinking is widespread

[Sea_Ice_CCI_FM.mp4]

• 2020 was 2nd lowest minima on record• Long term decline of 78,000 km2 per

year• Arctic amplification as darker ocean is

exposed

ARCTIC ICE LOSS DIRECTLY FOLLOWS ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS

• For every ton of CO2 emitted, 3m2 of sea ice is lost.

• Ice-free Arctic expected by 2050

GLOBAL WARMING SEEN FROM SPACEGlobal Sea Surface Temp anomaly trends 1981-2018 relative to 1982-2010 period.

Degrees C change per decade Bulgin et al, Sci Rep, 2020

• SST drives many weather and climate processes

• Trends of 0.11℃ per decade excluding perennial ice

OCEAN SALINITY from space• Saline areas

getting saltier• Freshwater areas

getting fresher• Intensification of

the hydrological cycle

SEA LEVEL RISE IS ACCELERATING

• Global mean sea level is rising 3.3mm per year and accelerating

• Copernicus Sentinel-6 is extending the record with unprecedented resolution

• Sea level rise is different everywhere & made worse by sinking coastlines

• Tacking subsidence more effective than mitigation for saving lives up to 2050

Mimura, N., NCC. (2021).

ANTARCTIC AND GREENLAND ICE SHEETSEl

evat

ion

chan

ge (m

/yr)

-1

+1

Ocean tem

perature (°C)-2 +1

#FIMC2021

SEA LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ICE SHEETS

IMBIE, Nature, 2019&2020, Slater et al, NCC, 2020

ICE SHEETS CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE

[IMBIE video]

• Consolidated estimates of ice sheet loss

• Greenland losing ice seven times faster then 1990s

• Losses on track for IPCC worst-case climate warming scenario

• Puts 44-66 million people at risk of annual coastal flooding by 2100

RECENT ACCELERATION IN GLACIER RETREAT

Hugonnet et al, Nature, 2021

The Earth’s glaciers have lost as much ice as both ice sheets combined over two decades

Kaab et al, The Cryosphere, 2021

SUDDEN GLACIER FLOWS akin to avalanches - more common than thought

PERMAFROST THAW IN THE ARCTIC

Tem

pera

ture

at d

epth

℃

Credit: G Hugelius

Permafrost CCI[Permafrost video]

Permafrost CCI, Obu et al,. 2019 via the CEDA archive

LAKE HEATWAVES and stratification

Woolway et al., Nature, 2021

• Lakes are sensitive to climatic change.• Thermal habitat moving faster than ability of

species to disperse: likely worse negative consequences than land or ocean ecosystems

Woolway et al, Nat Comms, 2021 Woolway and Maberly, NCC, 2020

TRACKING Fires• The modelling community needs a global fire time series that exceeds 30 years.• More than 4 million km2 burnt globally per year (area of India+Pakistan).• Human development is a main factor (more than weather) in driving global interannual variability in burnt area.• African fire emissions 80% higher than previously thought, doubling emissions estimates.

Lizundia-Loiola et al., Rem. Sens., 2020; Chuvieco et al, Sci of the Total Environ. 2021; Ramo et al, PNAS, 2021

CARBON SINKS: Biomass from space

[Biomass video]

• New maps for 2010, 2017 and 2018 at 100m

• Vegetation biomass is a key carbon sink, drawing down CO2 from the atmosphere

• Maps aim to support forest management, emissions reduction and inform Paris commitments, REDD+

CRISTAL – Polar Ice & Snow Topography

CIMR – Passive Microwave Radiometer

CO2M - Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring

CHIME – Hyperspectral Imaging Mission

ROSE-L – L-band SAR Mission

LST – Land Surface Temperature Mission

Causes of Climate Change

Agriculture & Urban Management

Effects ofClimate Change

Food Security, Soil, Minerals, Biodiversity

Sea: Surface Temp. & Ice Concentration

Vegetation & Ground Motion & Moisture

Copernicus: Sentinel Expansion Missions

Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) Mission

Artists impression of CO2M Mission. Credit: OHB

Copernicus Land Surface Temperature Mission (LSTM)• To increase agricultural production

by monitoring crop stress• Temp at 30-50m resolution: 400

times finer than currently possible• Relevance: drought, heatwaves,

urban heat islands, permafrost thaw

COPERNICUS IMAGING MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (CIMR)

• A game-changer for Earth observation: microwaves unaffected by cloud

• Focus is Arctic ‘no hole at the pole’• 99% global coverage after 1.5 days• Contributions to many climate variables

FORUM – ESA’s 9th Earth Explorer• Far-infrared Outgoing Radiation

Understanding and Monitoring• Will evaluate the role of far IR in

shaping current climate: benefit for NWP and climate projection

• Improved detection of ice clouds

CLIMATE FROM SPACE - WEB APP

à https://cfs.climate.esa.int

§ Explore the climate via 40 years of satellite data

§ 3D Globes & maps

§ Pinch, zoom, scroll

§ Select specific datasets

§ ‘Climate stories’

§ PC | Mobile |Tablet

§ Supporting lesson plans

[CfS video]

ESA CLIMATE CLASSROOM RESOURCES

§ Primary & Secondary (upper and lower)§ Teacher guide & Student worksheets § Integrates use of ESA’s Climate from Space web app§ Supports STEM curricula§ Languages Eng – end Q2 DE, FR, ES, NL

à climate.esa.int/educate

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

www.climate.esa.int