17_Technical_Analysis_Review_270913

7/28/2019 17_Technical_Analysis_Review_270913

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/17technicalanalysisreview270913 1/7

Technical Analysis

Review

27-09-2013

Review_27/09/13 - ( Rating - 3/15 ) → Negative - High Risk - Rupee is Breaking Down / Nifty on verge of Breaking into Down trend (Stage 4) / AD is -ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK

Hi/Low is -ve / Bonds is +Ve (--) Big Picture is Negative.

| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |



It is Notable that $ Index is at Weekly Demand Zone & is testing Weekly Ascending

Triangle, $ is expected to Raise against all Currencies (Trouble for Rupee) Also With

Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been considered to be the Hedge (Preferred

Vehicle For Cash). (* Note : This time around, This Process is Going to Hurt the

Instution the Most.Time will Prove this Historic Process would FAIL & set the Financial

world into a issue.

Indian Rupee - ( 0/4 ) → Rupee's Breakout on All timeframes from Ascending triangle

Pattern ( Consolidation Range was from 58.932 to 61.230 ). Measured Move Target of

61.734 has been achived & As $ is at lifetime High v/s Rupee, $ has entered a new Bull

Maket in Rupee Depreciation.. Rupee has exceeded Measured move target & 100 %

@ 66.386 Rupee has given a Fresh Breakdown from Top (Near Lifetime Highs) &

Demand Zone . Rupee is Giving a Bounce from Demand Level.

Supply Zone at 1) 69.228 (68.860) 68.578 2) 64.074 (63.669) 63.206

Demand Zone are at 1) 61.154 (60.720) 60.373 & 2) 59.368 (59.044) 58.688

Nifty - ( 0/4 ) → Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631 (22-02-2012) is Uptrend &

there was retracement upto 4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012

Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to 6110 (29-01-2013) There was

correction from 6110 (29-01-2013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013)

After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-05-2013) There was correction

in Uptrend (as Higher Low is formed at 5570 on 25-06-2013 after Neckline of 5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to

6229)

Lower High Lower Low Trend (Down Trend from 6229 (20-05-2013) to 5565 (24-06-

2013). Retest & Double Top Was From 5565 (24-06-2013) & Ended at 6077.79 ( 23-07-

2013 ). Another Lower High is Created at 5742.29 (14-08-2013)



Dimensions →

Previous Highs of 5742.29 (14-08-2013) & 6077.79 (23-07-2013) broken on Upside has

been Rejected & Price is at 5833 (27-09-2013) & Started Move Down as This is a

Parabolic Upmove & Not Like to Sustain Uptrend can resume only Price closes on Life

time Highs

Supply Levels are - 1) 5807 (5791) 5780 2) 6133 (6100) 6102 3) 6354 (6228.45)

6187.80

Demand Levels are 2) 5755.28 to 5714.63 3) 5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 4) 5276.86 -5211.20 5) 5128.09 (5079.67) 5032.70 6) 4842.27 4770.73

Price → Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of 2532 - 4534 - 4775 was

broken on the down side ( Trendline Break is Now Tested with current Upmove ) Now

Measured move of Break of Ascending Tringle is very very Low 3345 (50%) & 2864

(61.8%)

Volume → Volumes are in increasing Trend.In Oct series Nifty future shed 1.54 lakhposition in Open Interest and this accounts to -0.86 % of Total Open Interest in Oct

series.The Nifty Oct series is trading at 54.95 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative

cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net shed 0.27 lakh position in open

interest and this accounts to -0.14 % of Total Open Interest in all series and

cumulatively trading in average premium of 93.27 Rs to Underlying.

Indicators MCDA -Ve Trend RSI -Ve Trend

Open Intrest (OI) → NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(5888.15) is currently in SLIGHTLY BEAR

trend.The open interest is also not increasing with trend so be careful and premium of share.

In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even though put/call ratio is high At

current price strike the activity is tilted to put side and ratio is still strong Hence is also

increasing so sellers be cautious

NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 1.03 & (Money Wise) - 0.5



Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) → (Rating 1 for Each +ve)

TIme → After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5882 ) Nifty could now build Short Position due

to Sharp Pullback Rally….. As per Nifty's 56 Day Cycle Trend changed to up after (02-09-

2013) & Now Expected to Reverse to Down side with Momentum (+56Days) ( Next

Date 28-10-2013 )..... Mid month Reversal date of 17-10-2013 ( Sudden Red CandleAppeared with shift in Momumtum )..... Quaterlies Settlement is on 3rd Friday ( 20-12-

2013) Previous on 20-09-2013 was Huge Bearish

Sentiments → Sentiments are now Positive as current Pullback has Broken Previous

Swing Highs in Down trend, Due to Sharp Pullback Traders are forced to cut their Short

Position,Once Trend Resumes, Panik will get created for getting out of Long Positions

Risk Reward would be favourable on Sell Side. Earnings are mostly -ve are expected

P & F Chart → No Signal. There is Resistance at 5950 & Support at 5800.Post Strong

Exhaustion Pullback in Downtrend.

Advance Decline Line (0/1) → If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks

advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even

reverse.

AD Line is Not Rising with increase in Nifty, indicates Strength in Down trend But some

Balance in AD needs to be achieved.

Midcaps are Falling with Deciling Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels )

But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Huge Momentum &

Breakdowns

Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (0/1) → To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline

Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty

TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0

(More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that

are Declining

SMA Trin is Between 0.9 & 1.0 indicated Strength in Pullback & space for more stocks

to Decline even tho Nifty is Rising,The series of Lower Highs in SMA10 of TRIN has

been Restored with Inverse H & S & indicates -Ve strength



3 Y 10 Y 30 Y

Indian Bonds (3/4) → Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period

= Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market)

NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) → More Stocks in the index making new highs

versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs

indicate Market’s Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive

There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" has been broken on upside is

now Restored… indicating Strength in Down Trend. The "Troughs of stocks Hitting 52

Week Lows" Should increase in case of strong Down Trend

India Vix →Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied

volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor

& used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with

Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will

move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index

VIX is Breaking Down from 52 week High to 24.73. Fear/ Volitality is decreasing with

Down Trend indicating strength in stage 4...Volume is also High....

All Bonds indicating Down Turn. 3 Year Rate is Higher than 10 Year Rate has been Rectifed & Correct Relation of 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI is achived (Caution Money

is Moving to Short term Bond Market from Share Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) ..… . Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market)

to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed by Govt) & with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured

Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets.



http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Group 1 - Oil + Gas -> 33% Weight Group 2 - Natural Gas + Metal + Corn + Soya -> 42% Weight Group 3 - Others -> 25% Weight

Commodities (Negative Correlation) → $CRB has made a Double top & Distribution

Pattern (Downtrend has emerged), Commodities Crude Has Broken uptrend ( Bulltrap

was set for ascending Triangle breakout on weekly chart ), Post Pullback, Gold has

broken Down again ... ( Equity Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic

Growth (& Reduced Commodity Demand) & Geo Political Tensions are also

increasing,Now Commodities are to Resume Down Trend as Major banks are set to

Move out of Physical Commodity Markets. (Excess Supply Over Demand)

Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) → Dollar is the Only Appriciating Currency

& has Reached Demand Zone (Breakout of Ascending Triangle on weekly Timeframe)

& Hence Some Currencies are Reaching Supply Zone. Japan Yen Aussie $ are

Depriciating & Market are trying to Rebuild (Distribution) after Fed's Stance of No

Tapering in QE, Hints at Liquidity Reversal is on Hold (Market failed to Build Gains on

Good News & has Declined on Next Day..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off Mode

.. Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency (Developed & OtherEmerging Mkt Currencies ) are depreciating against $ to take advantage of investment

in safe Govt Secured Bond





http://

in.advf

n.com

/world

The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise → ( 0/10 ) Extremely Negative

INDEX → HDFC → DBR from Demand Zone to Test 200 SMA - Death Cross - Y

FINANCE → ICICIBANK → Drop From Supply Level - Death cross - Y

ENERGY → RELIANCE → Down from Top of Range - Golden Cross - Y

IT → INFY → Distribution Rounding Top - Golden Cross - Y

FMCG → ITC → Bounce from 200DMA Inverse H&S (Up From Weekly Support) - Golden Cross - Y

AUTO → TATAMOTORS → Top of Range into Weekly Supply Zone - Golden Cross - Y

PHARMACEUTICALS → SUNPHARMA → Right Shoulder @ Weekly & Retest of Top Done (With Lower High) Golden Cross - Y

CAPITAL GOODS → L&T → Pullback in Downtrend (Up From Weekly Support) - Death Cross - Y

METALS → TATASTEEL → Pullback from Lows in Downtrend - Death Cross - YCEMENT → ULTRACEMCO → Pullback in Downtrend (Up From Weekly Support) - Death Cross - Y

World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) → Chinese Recover is Slow with raised

concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan & US Markets has weekly Breakdown

(Markets are Distributing Stocks on Good News are now Ferouscliously Selling.Europe

CAG DAX are Near Resistance & FTSE have given Fresh Breaking Downs (Global

Markets are Now at Resistance. Syncronisation in BreakDowns is seen after Creating

Bearish Patterns (Some Double Tops).Also Global Liquidity is Drying,interest Rates are

increasing ..All Equity Markets are on Risk OFF Mode

NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any

investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.

17_Technical_Analysis_Review_270913

Documents