HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 1 October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal SurveyInterviews: 1,000 Adults, including 350 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: October 15-18, 2015 28 respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline. Study #15462 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Please note: all result s are shown as percentages un less otherwise stated. The margin of erro r for 1,0 00 interviews among Ad ults i s ±3. 10% The margin of erro r for 400 interviews amon g Republican Primary Voters i s ±4.90% The margin of erro r for 400 interviews amon g Democratic Primary Voters is ±4.90% Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults. Q2a For statistic al purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST) 18-24 ...................................................... 11 25-29 ...................................................... 7 30-34 ...................................................... 12 35-39 ...................................................... 8 40-44 ...................................................... 9 45-49 ...................................................... 6 50-54 ...................................................... 9 55-59 ...................................................... 9 60-64 ...................................................... 11 65-69 ...................................................... 8 70-74 ...................................................... 4 75 and over ............................................ 5 Not sure/refused................................... 1 Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you plea se t ell me whether you a re from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? Yes, H ispa nic ........................................... 11 No, not Hispanic ....................................... 88 Not sure/ refused ..................................... 1 Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or s omething else? Whit e .. ....................................................... 74 Black ......................................................... 12 Asian ......................................................... 2 Other ......................................................... 3 Hispan ic (VOL) ........................................ 8 Not sur e/r efused . ..................................... 1 48 Male 52 Female
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HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 1October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Interviews: 1,000 Adults, including 350 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: October 15-18, 201528 respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline.
Study #15462NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Please note: all result s are shown as percentages un less otherwise stated.
The margin of error for 1,000 interviews among Adults i s ±3.10%
The margin of error for 400 interviews among Republican Primary Voters i s ±4.90%
The margin of error for 400 interviews among Democratic Primary Voters is ±4.90%
Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults.
Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are?(IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST)
70-74 ...................................................... 475 and over ............................................ 5Not sure/refused ................................... 1
Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanicor Spanish-speaking background?
Q4 All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel thatthings are off on the wrong track? 1
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 4October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q6 Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you torate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or verynegative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (AFTER THE FIRST TEN ITEMS, READ:) And,
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 12October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q9 Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person forthe Democratic nomination president in 2016. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZELIST)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES Yes, Could See
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 13October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q10 And, thinking about people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the nextDemocratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would youfavor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLYONE ANSWER.) (IF BIDEN, THEN ASK:) And, if Joe Biden decides not to seek the Democratic nomination forpresident in 2016, which candidate would you favor? (READ :1-6)
FIRST CHOICE (WITH JOE BIDEN)THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters whosay they would vote in the Democratic Primary
(IF BIDEN, THEN ASK:) And, if Joe Biden decides not to seek the Democratic nomination for president in2016, which candidate would you favor? (READ :1-5)
RECALCULATED FIRST CHOICE (WITHOUT JOE BIDEN)THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
RESULTS SHOWN AMONG ALL VOTERS WHO SAY THEY WOULD VOTE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 14October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q11a In selecting a presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, which of the following is most important to you?(ROTATE)
10/15^^ 7/15^^ A candidate with the best chance to defeat the Republican candidate ................. 20 12 A candidate who comes closest to your views on issues ...................................... 52 53 A candidate who has the right personal style and strong leadership qualities ...... 27 34
^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the DemocraticPrimary
(Q11b ASKED ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO CHOSE “ PERSONAL STYLE AND LEADERSHIP” IN Q11A)Q11b Now, if you had to choose, which would be the next most important to you in selecting a presidential
nominee for the Democratic Party? (ROTATE)
10/15^^ 7/15^^
A candidate with the best chance to defeat the Republican candidate .................. 8 7 A candidate who comes closest to your views on issues ....................................... 19 25
Not sure ............................................................................................................... - 1Best chance to defeat Republican/Closest to views/None/Not Sure (Q11a) ......... 73 66
^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
Q11A/B COMBINED 10/15^^ 7/15^^
A candidate with the best chance to defeat the Republican candidate .................. 28 20 A candidate who comes closest to your views on issues ....................................... 71 79
^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who saythey would vote in the Democratic Primary
Q13 Would you describe Bernie Sanders as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Hillary Clinton is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat(liberal/conservative)?^^
Very liberal ................................................... 44
^^ Results shown reflect responses among registeredvoters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
Q14 Would you like to see Joe Biden run for the Democratic nomination, would you prefer that he NOT run forthe nomination, or do you not really have an opinion one way or the other?^^
Would like to see Joe Biden run .................. 30Would prefer that Joe Biden not run ............ 38Do not have an opinion ................................ 31Not sure ..................................................... 1
^^ Results shown reflect responses among registeredvoters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
March 2007Would you like to see Al Gore run for the
Democratic nomination, would you prefer that heNOT run for the nomination, or do you not really
have an opinion one way or the other?
Would like to see Al Gore run ................... 40Would prefer that Al Gore not run ............. 39Do not have an opinion ............................. 20
Not sure .................................................. 1
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 16October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q15 Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person forthe Republican nomination president in 2016. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (AFTER THEFIRST TEN ITEMS, READ:) And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE LIST)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES Yes, Could See
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 18October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q16/a And, if a Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidateswould you favor (RANDOMIZE) Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, MikeHuckabee, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Donald Trump, or Carly Fiorina, or would you vote for one of the othercandidates? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) (IFCHOICE, THEN ASK:) And, which of the following candidates would be your second choice (RANDOMIZEREMAINING LIST FROM :1-10) or would your second choice be one of the other candidates? (IFPREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CANDIDATE FOR FIRST OR SECOND CHOICE IN Q16, THEN ASK:) Which
one of the following candidates would you favor -- (RANDOMIZE) Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, GeorgePataki, Bobby Jindal, or Jim Gilmore?
FIRST CHOICETHIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who saythey would vote in the Republican Primary
Q17 Now, when it comes to the next Speaker of the House who will replace John Boehner, do you generally wantsomeone who (ROTATE) is more likely to seek compromise and work to get more done or is more likely tostand up for principles even if this means that less gets done.^
Seek compromises ............................................. 40Stand up for principles ....................................... 56Not sure............................................................ 4
^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voterswho say they would vote in the Republican Primary
Q18 If Paul Ryan is elected to be the next Speaker of the House to replace John Boehner, would yougenerally feel (ROTATE) comfortable and positive about this or skeptical and uncertain about this? ^
Comfortable and positive ................................... 63Skeptical and uncertain ...................................... 28Mixed (VOL) ....................................................... 1Not sure............................................................ 8
^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voterswho say they would vote in the Republican Primary
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 20October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Now, thinking about the 2016 election for President…(Q19-24 RANDOMIZED AMONG REG VOTER)Q19 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and Ben Carson were the Republican candidate and
Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Q20 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and Marco Rubio were the Republican candidate andHillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Q21 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and Ted Cruz were the Republican candidate and HillaryClinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? +
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Q22 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and Ben Carson were the Republican candidate andBernie Sanders were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? +
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Q23 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and Marco Rubio were the Republican candidate andBernie Sanders were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? +
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Q24 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and Ted Cruz were the Republican candidate and BernieSanders were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?+
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 21October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Moving on…Q25 Now, which of the following best describes how you would feel if (READ ITEM) were elected president –
(ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM/BOTTOM TO TOP) optimistic and confident that (he/she) would do a good job,satisfied and hopeful that (he/she) would do a good job, uncertain and wondering whether (he/she) would doa good job, or pessimistic and worried that (he/she) would do a bad job?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY‘OPTIMISTIC AND CONFIDENT’ OR ‘SATISFIED AND HOPEFUL’
Optimistic And
Confident
Satisfied And
Hopeful
Uncertain And
Wondering
Pessimistic And
Worried
Not
Sure
Joe BidenOctober 015+ ............................................ 22 24 23 29 2
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.1 In April 2006, the question read “Which of the following best describes your feeling about how Hillary Clinton would do aspresident…”
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 22October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q26 Now, NOT thinking about any specific candidates, I'm going to list several types of people who might run forpresident. For each one, please tell me whether that type of candidate is someone you would (a) beenthusiastic about, (b) be comfortable with, (c) have some reservations about, or (d) be very uncomfortablewith.
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY ENTHUSIASTIC OR COMFORTABLE
A person who is not a poli ticianand has no previous electedexperience in government
October 2015+ ............................... 11 23 35 29 2 April 2015 ....................................... 9 21 34 35 1
A Mus lim
October 2015+ ............................... 5 27 23 42 3 A socialist
October 2015+ ............................... 6 21 25 45 3
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
Q27 Do you think American capitalism is working...(ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM/BOTTOM TO TOP) very well,somewhat well, not too well, or not at all well?
10/15 5/13Very well .................................................... 12 9Somewhat well ........................................... 48 45Not too well ................................................ 24 26Not at all well ............................................. 13 16
Not sure ................................................... 3 41 Data from a May 2013 Public Religion Research InstituteEconomic Values Survey
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 23October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
(ROTATE Q28 – Q29 AMONG REG VOTERS) And, thinking some more about (jus t one/ano ther) candidate…Q28 How would you rate Hillary Clinton on the following qualities, using a five-point scale, on which a "5" means
a very good rating, a "1" means a very poor rating, and a "3" means a mixed rating? (IF "NOT SURE,"RECORD AS "DK.")
TABLE RANKED BY %4-5 (GOOD RATING) AMONG ALL VOTERS
Very GoodRating Very PoorRating Cannot5 4 3 2 1 Rate
Being knowledgeable and experienced enough tohandle the presidency All Voters
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.^^ Results shown reflect responses among Democratic Primary Voters (definitions of Democratic Primary Voters vary prior to 2014)
And, thinking some more about (jus t one/ano ther) candidate…Q29 How would you rate Bernie Sanders on the following qualities, using a five-point scale, on which a "5"
means a very good rating, a "1" means a very poor rating, and a "3" means a mixed rating? (IF "NOTSURE," RECORD AS "DK.")
TABLE RANKED BY %4-5 (GOOD RATING) AMONG ALL VOTERS
Very GoodRating
Very PoorRating Cannot Don’t Know
5 4 3 2 1 Rate Name (Q6)Being honest and straightforward All Voters
October 2015^^ .................................................................. 35 23 24 2 2 2 12Being knowledgeable and experienced enough tohandle the presidency All Voters
October 2015^^ .................................................................. 27 29 23 4 3 2 12Bringing real change to the direction of the country All Voters
October 2015+ .................................................................... 18 15 24 8 18 4 13
Democratic primary votersOctober 2015^^ .................................................................. 38 20 21 3 4 2 12Sharing your positions on the issues All Voters
October 2015^^ .................................................................. 30 25 23 4 4 2 12+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
October 2015 .................................... 42 48 1 9Guns
October 2015 .................................... 38 52 1 9
Q34 Whether or not you agree with this party’s position, when it comes to its approach on [RANDOMIZE INSERTITEM] would you describe the Republican Party’s position as generally being in the broad mainstream, oris its position outside the mainstream?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY IN THE MAINSTREAM
Q36 Which of the following comes closer to your point of view about the threat the situation in Syria presents tothe U.S. (ROTATE)
It is NOT a threat to the United States ..................... 16It is not a threat to the United States now butlikely will be soon ..................................................... 56It is an immediate threat to the United States .......... 23Not sure ................................................................. 5
Q37 Do you think Russia poses an immediate military threat to the United States, a long-term military threat, orno real military threat to the United States?
10/15* 3/05Immediate military threat .......... 14 8Long-term military threat ........... 60 34No real military threat ................ 23 53Not sure .................................. 3 5
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
And, turning to a different issue…Q38 In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 28October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q39 How worried are you that (READ ITEM)--very worried, fairly worried, only slightly worried, or not reallyworried at all?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY VERY OR FAIRLY WORRIED
VeryWorried
FairlyWorried
Only SlightlyWorried
Not ReallyWorried at all
NotSure
You or someone you love will bethe victim of gun violenceOctober 2015 .................................. 17 15 31 37 -
You or someone you love will bethe victim of a terrorist attackOctober 2015 .................................. 9 16 35 40 -September 2001 ............................. 16 12 31 40 1
Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only.
QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November2012 election for president? (IF “YES,” ASK:) For whom did you vote––Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, orsomeone else? +
Voted for Barack Obama ............................... 44Voted for Mitt Romney ................................... 32Voted for someone else ................................. 10Not sure ......................................................... 1No, Did Not Vote ............................................ 12
Not sure ....................................................... 1+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
QF2 Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do?(RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-at-home mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work?
Currently Employed Professional, manager ............................ 25
Not Currently Employed Student .................................................... 4
Stay at home mom/dad ........................... 7Retired .................................................... 23Unemployed, looking for work ................. 3Other ....................................................... -Not sure ................................................ 1
QF3 What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.)
Grade school ........................................................... -Some high school .................................................... 3High school graduate ............................................... 24Some college, no degree ......................................... 16Vocational training/School ...................................... 22-year college degree .............................................. 114-year college/bachelor's degree ............................. 25Some postgraduate work, no degree ....................... 32-3 years postgraduate work/master's degree ......... 11Doctoral/law degree ................................................. 4Not sure/refused .................................................... 1
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 29October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
QF4 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or somethingelse? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican)or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONGDEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to theRepublican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF"NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.")
QF5 Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, orconservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very(liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)?
Very liberal ......................................................... 10Somewhat liberal ............................................... 14Moderate ............................................................ 40Somewhat conservative ..................................... 19Very conservative .............................................. 15Not sure ........................................................... 2
(READ QF5a-f ONLY IF Q9:2 - REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS) And, On a scale from one to ten where ten represents a description that is perfect for you and one a description thatis totally wrong for you, how well do each of the following describe you? You can, of course, use any numberbetween one and ten. __ __ (RECORD EXACT NUMBER 1-10, USE 99 FOR DK/REF)
To what extent do you regard yourself as...(RANDOMIZE)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY %8-10 AMONG REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS8-10 4-7 1-3 Refused Mean
A supporter of the tradi tionaldefinition of marriage as beingbetween one man and one womanOctober 2015^.................................... 70 16 14 - 8.0
A supporter of the Right-to-Li femovementOctober 2015^.................................... 62 26 9 3 7.8
Someone who enjoys l istening toconservative talk radioOctober 2015^.................................... 39 34 25 2 6.0
A supporter of the Tea PartyMovementOctober 2015^.................................... 33 44 20 3 5.9
A Li bertar ianOctober 2015^.................................... 11 36 46 7 3.9
^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 30October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
QF6a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR"NOT SURE" IN QF6a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member?
Labor union member ........................................ 12Union household .............................................. 8Non-union household ....................................... 80Not sure .......................................................... -
QF7 If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year,would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousanddollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars andforty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousanddollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousanddollars, or would the total be more than that?
Less than $10,000 ............................................... 3Between $10,000 and $20,000............................ 7Between $20,000 and $30,000............................ 10Between $30,000 and $40,000............................ 10Between $40,000 and $50,000............................ 9Between $50,000 and $75,000............................ 17
Between $75,000 and $100,000.......................... 13More than $100,000 ............................................ 25Not sure/refused ................................................. 6
QF8 Do you, or does anyone in your household, own a gun of any kind?