141028.tourism in 2050

Tourism in 2050

European Tourism Futures Institute

Jeroen Oskam

1. the European Tourism Futures Institute

2. Strategy and scenario thinking

3. Tourism in 2050

4. Experiences?

Based in the Netherlands; tourism researchers from 17 EU-countries.

1. European Tourism Futures Institute

The ETFI specializes in scenario planning for the international tourism industry

1. European Tourism Futures Institute

The ETFI publishes academic publications and the Journal of Tourism Futures

1. European Tourism Futures Institute

2. Strategy and scenario thinking

“Strategy as Planning”

A company’s chess play determined by the variables of its own operations, its customers and its competitors.

“Deliberately choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique mix of value”(Porter)

2. Strategy and scenario thinking

We used to think of the business environment as a“Surprise-free”future.

2. Strategy and scenario thinking

The “horse manure crisis” (1894) shows the limitation of trend extrapolations.

2. Strategy and scenario thinking.

From “Strategy as Planning” to “Strategy as Learning”.

•Increased awareness of the volatility of the environment.•Resilience and strategic robustness.•Metaphor of evolutionary biology.

2. Strategy and scenario thinking

2. Strategy and scenario thinking

From forecasts to scenarios

•Forecasting: quantitative estimate of the future outcomes of current developments.•Scenarios as “an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be” (Porter).•“a well-worked answer to the question: ‘What can conceivably happen?’” (Lindgren and Bandhold). •“Future memory” (De Geus).

2. Strategy and scenario thinking

Wat kan er hier de komende jaren veranderen?

3. Tourism in 2050

3. Tourism in 2050

2050

A. Distribution of wealth in our own society and over the world.

B. Availability of resources: oil, water, food

C. Technology

The future of tourism depends on global wealth distribution, available resources and the evolution of technology.

3. Tourism in 2050

A. Distribution of wealth

20% of BRIC tourists will travel globally; massive numbers. But they look at our destinations differently.

3. Tourism in 2050

B. Availability of resources

We now take showers as long as we want in our hotel and pay for 1 hour of Wifi. In 2050 this will seem absurd.

3. Tourism in 2050

C. Technology “Exponential growth”

Technological developments will go faster and faster: our knowledge will grow explosively with the size of our population.

3. Tourism in 2050

Qatar will invest 40-45 Billion in tourism development. Are their plans realistic?

Workforce scarcity may limit the growth of Middle East destinations.

3. Tourism in 2050

The UK may leave the EU, Scotland and Catalonia discuss independence. What will this mean for tourism?

Political and economic volatility may affect European destinations.

3. Tourism in 2050

Is virtual reality a threat or an opportunity for tourism?

When movie theaters were introduced, it was thought that people would stop travelling. How about virtual reality?

4. Experiences in 2050?

4. Experiences in 2050

More wealth, more choice, more information:

Different holiday decisions.

“@SamuelVetrak: “Youth tourists travel to something, not away from something”.

4. Experiences in 2050

More wealth, more choice,

more information

A. Distribution of wealth

B. Availability of resources

C. Technology

In 2050 we will still look for the optimal experience but the 3 drivers will change its composition.

A: “De-experiencing”4. Experiences in 2050

With increased wealth we were willing to pay for staged extras, but as our wealth decreases the trend will be commoditization.

B. More limited choices4. Experiences in 2050

The kind of experiences we can get will depend on the availability and price of energy and water.

B. Pressure on cities

4. Experiences in 2050

Tourism will continue to grow. But how will tourist pressure affect the value of a destination?

Will Google, Facebook and Amazon dominate tourism marketing?

4. Experiences in 2050

Will the internet be an open communication platform or will content be filtered politically and commercially?

Final

Please visit www.etfi.eu for information on:

• Trends in tourism• Scenario planning

methods• Current projects• Downloadable

reports• Publications

Jeroen Oskam @TourismFutures