14 th Weather Squadron ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO GENERATOR (ESG) Tom Kotz Technical Director.

14th Weather Squadron

ENVIRONMENTALSCENARIO

GENERATOR(ESG)

Tom KotzTechnical Director

2/15

Purpose

Explain the Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG)

3/15

Overview

What is ESG? How ESG Works ESG Products

4/15

What is ESG?

IlluminationIllumination

Terrain surface Terrain surface and Featuresand Features

ClimateClimate

Hydrologic CycleHydrologic Cycle

Sea StateSea State

Ocean Ocean ParametersParameters

TransmittanceTransmittance

Surface and Surface and Subsurface FlowsSubsurface Flows

WeatherWeather

MobilityMobility

Flight RoutesFlight Routes

Line of SightLine of Sight

Weapon EffectsWeapon Effects

Course of ActionCourse of Action

Acoustic TrackingAcoustic Tracking

VisibilityVisibility

Route SelectionRoute Selection

Dynamic TerrainDynamic TerrainSea StateSea State

ElevationElevation

ClimateClimate

FeaturesFeatures

Weather ModelsWeather Models

BathymetryBathymetry

Hydrologic ModelingHydrologic Modeling

Physical Physical ParametersParameters

Ocean ModelsOcean Models MobilityMobility

Flight RoutesFlight Routes

Line of SightLine of Sight

Weapon EffectsWeapon Effects

Course of ActionCourse of Action

Acoustic TrackingAcoustic Tracking

VisibilityVisibility

Route SelectionRoute Selection

The SameThe Same

Environment Processes Behaviors

Natural

Synthetic

Sen

sors

Sen

sors

Beh

avio

r M

odel

sB

ehav

ior

Mod

els

Dec

isio

n M

aker

sD

ecis

ion

Mak

ers

5/15

What is ESG?

https://esg.afccc.af.mil/https://esg.afccc.af.mil/

Scenario Search Mechanism Rapidly searches historical

archives Weapon System Impacts Fuzzy-Logic Classification Interactive Data Analysis

Produce Realistic Data Sets High-Quality data and models Recreate historic scenarios Customized post-processing Standard/Custom formats

Can request 14th WS support or request a user account

6/15

How ESG Works

ESG Process

Customer RequestCustomer Request• ConditionsConditions• Place/TimePlace/Time• ParametersParameters• ResolutionResolution• FormatFormat

Subject Matter ExpertSubject Matter Expert(SME) Processing(SME) Processing• Search for ScenarioSearch for Scenario• Identify Data SourceIdentify Data Source• Verify Data OutputVerify Data Output• Check FormatCheck Format

DatabasesDatabases• ACMESACMES• NCEP/NCARNCEP/NCAR• MODASMODAS• WW3WW3• Space ArchivesSpace Archives• Previous ProductsPrevious Products

Scenarios in Scenarios in Various FormatsVarious Formats• SEDRISSEDRIS• GRIBGRIB• BinaryBinary• CSVCSV• PRFPRF• OtherOther

“Wet and windy”“Korea in winter”“Temp, humidity, winds”“40km, hourly for 3 months”“CSV, GRIB, SEDRIS”

7/15

M&S Support Using ESG

8/15

ESG Products

Environmental Representations Scenarios or Data Sets (Standard and Customer-unique)

Environmental data (18-Environmental data (18-month atmospheric at 6-hour month atmospheric at 6-hour

intervals with 1-degree intervals with 1-degree resolution) helped identify resolution) helped identify

effects of weather on ISR and effects of weather on ISR and refueling ops.refueling ops.

Aeronautical Systems Center Aeronautical Systems Center (ASC) using data to determine (ASC) using data to determine how capable future systems how capable future systems

are under various are under various environmental scenarios.environmental scenarios.

LPD-17 using authoritative LPD-17 using authoritative atmospheric data to atmospheric data to

determine probability of determine probability of raid annihilation. Ensured raid annihilation. Ensured

consistent environment for consistent environment for distributed simulations. distributed simulations.

OSD(PA&E) and AF/A5XS OSD(PA&E) and AF/A5XS incorporating atmospheric incorporating atmospheric

and ocean data into and ocean data into THUNDER campaign THUNDER campaign

analysis simulation to analysis simulation to analyze various Courses of analyze various Courses of

Action.Action.

Army used data to determine Army used data to determine Grizzly antimine vehicle Grizzly antimine vehicle

performed poorly in muddy performed poorly in muddy conditions. Ultimately led to conditions. Ultimately led to project cancellation saving project cancellation saving

millions in development and millions in development and production costs. production costs.

Taught F-35 team member how Taught F-35 team member how to use ESG to generate to use ESG to generate

environmental representations. environmental representations. Facilitates M&S testing outside Facilitates M&S testing outside

the scope of live testing.the scope of live testing.

9/15

ESG Products

Environmental Representations Pseudo Observations

Text and JMIBL formats

<?xml version="1.0" ?> - <urn:JMO_obsList xmlns:urn="urn:metoc:jmcbl:jmibl">- <urn:JMO_obs urn:horizontalDatum="WGE" urn:latitude="45.4" urn:longitude="141.8" urn:networkType="ICAO" urn:observationTime="20060213000600" urn:platformHeight="11.0" urn:platformId="RJCW" urn:reportTypeCode="FM-16" urn:securityId="1" urn:stationMode="1" urn:verticalDatum="MSL">  <urn:JMO_surfaceObs urn:airTemperature="-3.0" urn:altimeterSetting="1004.1" urn:cloudCavok="N" urn:cloudCeiling="610" urn:cloudCover="07" urn:dewPointTemperature="-6.0" urn:windConditions="N" urn:windDirection="260" urn:windMeasurementMode="4" urn:windSpeed="8.7" />   <urn:JMO_cloudLayerObs urn:cloudBaseHeight="213" urn:cloudCover="02" urn:cloudLayerId="1" urn:verticalDatum="AGL" />   <urn:JMO_cloudLayerObs urn:cloudBaseHeight="305" urn:cloudCover="04" urn:cloudLayerId="2" urn:verticalDatum="AGL" />   <urn:JMO_cloudLayerObs urn:cloudBaseHeight="610" urn:cloudCover="07" urn:cloudLayerId="3" urn:verticalDatum="AGL" />   <urn:JMO_remarks urn:remarks="2ST007 4ST010 7CB020 A2965 CB ALL QUAD;" />   <urn:JMO_visibilityObs urn:occurrenceId="1" urn:supLocationCode="S" urn:visibility="5000" urn:visibilityType="P" />   <urn:JMO_message urn:bbbStatus="I" urn:messageSequenceId="1" urn:originalMessage="METAR RJCW 130006Z 26017KT 5000 -SHSN FEW007 SCT010 BKN020CB M03/M06 Q1004 RMK 2ST007 4ST010 7CB020 A2965 CB ALL QUAD;" urn:receiptDtg="20060213001644" urn:securityId="1" />   </urn:JMO_obsList>

METAR RJCW 130006Z 26017KT 5000 -SHSN

FEW007 SCT010 BKN020CB M03/M06 Q1004 RMK

2ST007 4ST010 7CB020 A2965 CB ALL QUAD

10/15

ESG Products

Environmental Representations Pseudo Observations Pseudo Satellite and Radar Images

11/15

ESG Products

Environmental Representations Pseudo Observations Pseudo Satellite and Radar Images Graphics

Verifies data Can be used as pseudo “Forecaster-in-the-loop” (FITL)

products or as a source to produce them

12/15

ESG Products

Environmental Representations Pseudo Observations Pseudo Satellite and Radar Images Graphics Effects

Environmental Hypercube

13/15

ESG Products (Future)

Space Environmental Integration System (SEIS) Generate space data set based on desired effects

TAF (Text and JMIBL) GUI (Generate Data and Effects) Weather and Effects Server

KFBG 090

539Z 090

606 1601

5G25KT 9

999 SCT0

50

TEM

PO 0912

3200 -SH

RA BKN05

0 OVC100

BEC

MG 1214

22012KT

9999 SCT

100

TEM

PO 1421

8000 –SH

RA BKN03

0

14/15

Summary

ESG enables models and simulations (M&S) to produce effects resulting from the environment

Current customers include wide-ranging interests and uses

ESG products suited to M&S, but have other uses Ongoing projects add power and versatility to ESG

15/15

Questions