14 October 2021 2QFY22 Results Preview Cement

14 October 2021 2QFY22 Results Preview

Cement

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Strong demand; rising costs to hit margin

Demand recovery continues post COVID second wave impact: Cement

demand picked up Jun-21 onwards, as COVID impact started to recede.

Subsequently, we estimate our coverage universe (15 companies) to deliver

4% QoQ volume growth in 2QFY22 (on a lower base of Q1), leading to 11%

jump YoY. Thus, average utilisation should recover to 75% vs 72/70%

QoQ/YoY.

Seasonal price correction: We estimate the average NSR of our coverage

universe in 2Q would fall 3% QoQ, mainly on account of monsoon impact.

On a YoY basis, we estimate NSR would remain higher by ~2%. On QoQ

basis, our channel check suggests cement prices corrected ~4% each in east

and south regions, followed by ~3% fall in north and flattish in central and

west regions.

Rising fuel and diesel prices to inflate operating costs: While pet coke

prices have surged another 20% QoQ (~double YoY), imported thermal coal

prices have also spiked up by 33% QoQ (~140-150% YoY). Rising crude

prices have pushed up diesel prices by 7% QoQ (+20% YoY). Thus, we have

built in ~INR 80-100/MT input cost inflation and ~INR 20-40/MT freight cost

increase QoQ for our coverage universe. Subsequently, we estimate unitary

opex to firm up 3/8% QoQ/YoY, pulling the margin down. We estimate

average unitary EBITDA would fall 19/13% QoQ/YoY to INR 1,117/MT.

Performance of companies: We expect aggregate revenue for our coverage

universe to rise 14% YoY on higher volumes in 2QFY22E. However, we

estimate EBITDA/APAT would fall 3/6% YoY on account of rising costs. We

expect Orient Cement, UltraTech, Ambuja, and Nuvoco to deliver EBITDA

growth YoY. We expect all other companies to deliver an EBITDA decline

YoY (on their high bases), barring ACC (flattish EBITDA).

Sector outlook and recommendation: Cement demand is recovering well;

this has supported limited price correction during the monsoon period. We

expect cement prices to rise during H2FY22, as cost inflation is firming up

unabated and has impacted the whole industry. Good demand and

increased consolidation should support the industry’s cost pass through

ability. Thus, despite the rising cost pressure, we expect average unitary

EBITDA for our coverage universe to remain flattish YoY at ~INR 1,210/MT

in FY22E (vs INR 1,230/MT in FY21), owing to a healthy pricing outlook. We

roll forward valuations to Sep’23E (vs Jun’23E earlier). Post the sharp run-up

in stocks, we downgrade our ratings on Sagar Cements to ADD from BUY

earlier. We also upgrade Ramco Cements to ADD from REDUCE earlier,

owing to comfortable valuations. We maintain our ratings for the rest. Our

top picks are – UltraTech (in large caps) and Birla Corp and Nuvoco Vistas

(in mid-caps).

COMPANY RATING TP (INR)

UltraTech Cem BUY 8,490

Shree Cem REDUCE 28,400

Ambuja Cem ADD 400

ACC BUY 2,670

Dalmia Bharat ADD 2,240

Nuvoco Vistas BUY 827

Ramco Cem ADD 1,096

JK Cement ADD 3,295

Birla Corp BUY 1,634

Heidelberg Cem ADD 250

Star Cement BUY 130

JK Lakshmi BUY 780

Orient Cem BUY 185

Sagar Cement ADD 295

Deccan Cem ADD 785

Rajesh Ravi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7352

Keshav Lahoti

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7353

Page | 2

2QFY22E estimates

Y/E March

(INR mn)

Net sales (INR mn) EBITDA (INR mn) EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT (INR mn)

Sep-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Sep-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Sep-21 YoY (pp) QoQ (pp) Sep-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

ACC $ 38,434 8.7 (1.1) 6,753 0.6 (22.3) 17.6 (1.4) (4.8) 4,182 14.9 (26.6)

Ambuja 32,700 14.6 (3.0) 7,218 6.1 (24.8) 22.1 (1.8) (6.4) 4,750 7.8 (34.3)

Birla Corp $ 16,339 (1.2) (6.6) 2,587 (32.4) (24.7) 15.8 (7.3) (3.8) 800 (52.0) (43.5)

Dalmia $ 26,843 11.4 3.7 5,655 (19.4) (19.2) 21.1 (8.1) (6.0) 1,635 (29.5) (38.5)

Deccan Cem 1,884 (4.9) (16.0) 340 (31.9) (38.6) 18.1 (7.2) (6.6) 208 (38.5) (43.5)

Heidelberg Cem 5,312 3.4 (4.5) 1,005 (20.2) (23.4) 18.1 (5.6) (4.7) 432 (30.8) (37.1)

JK Cement$ 19,291 18.0 12.5 3,985 (7.6) (1.1) 20.7 (5.7) (2.8) 1,928 (13.0) 0.4

JK Lakshmi $ 12,666 11.9 (4.5) 1,827 (18.7) (29.2) 14.4 (5.4) (5.1) 699 (22.0) (46.8)

Nuvoco Vistas $ 21,890 23.0 (0.6) 4,055 6.1 (21.2) 18.5 (2.9) (4.8) 324 731.2 (71.6)

Orient Cem 7,171 50.2 3.8 1,551 37.0 (16.7) 21.6 (2.1) (5.3) 718 106.1 (19.8)

Ramco Cem 13,193 5.0 7.4 3,654 (17.3) 0.4 27.7 (7.5) (1.9) 1,644 (30.3) (2.7)

Sagar Cem $ 3,957 21.4 0.8 874 (16.5) (18.4) 22.1 (10.1) (5.2) 347 (30.9) (32.4)

Shree Cement 32,476 7.5 (5.9) 8,485 (14.1) (16.3) 26.1 (6.6) (3.3) 3,947 (27.9) (40.4)

Star Cem $ 4,197 4.4 (17.9) 579 (26.6) (37.5) 13.8 (5.8) (4.3) 327 (47.0) (52.0)

UltraTech Cem $ 1,24,319 19.7 5.1 30,163 11.8 (8.8) 24.3 (1.7) (3.7) 13,414 9.0 (21.2)

Total 3,60,672 14.2 1.0 78,732 (2.5) (15.4) 21.8 (3.7) (4.2) 35,354 (6.4) (29.1)

Source: Company, HSIE Research, $ - Consol numbers, For ACC/Ambuja, estimates to pertains to Q3CY21E, In case of Nuvoco, 2QFY21

EBITDA/APAT are our estimates

2QFY22E operational estimates

Y/E March Sales volume (mn MT) NSR (INR/MT) EBITDA (INR/MT) Opex (INR/MT)

Sep-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Sep-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Sep-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Sep-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

ACC $ 7.0 8.6 3.0 5,148 0.0 (3.0) 938 (12.4) (25.5) 4,210 3.3 4.0

Ambuja 6.4 13.2 0 5,094 1.2 (3.0) 1,124 (6.3) (24.8) 3,969 3.6 5.7

Birla Corp $ 3.4 4.3 1.7 4,806 (1.5) (3.0) 737 (36.1) (26.1) 4,069 9.2 2.8

Dalmia $ 5.3 10.0 8.0 5,083 1.2 (4.0) 1,071 (26.8) (25.2) 4,012 12.7 3.9

Deccan Cem 0.4 (3.3) (13.3) 4,300 (1.6) (3.2) 776 (29.6) (29.2) 3,524 7.8 5.4

Heidelberg Cem 1.2 4.7 (2.0) 4,578 (1.3) (2.5) 866 (23.8) (21.8) 3,712 6.1 3.5

JK Cement $ 3.0 20.4 7.0 4,676 1.3 (2.5) 936 (15.5) (19.0) 3,739 6.6 2.7

JK Lakshmi $ 2.8 9.2 (2.0) 4,575 2.5 (2.5) 660 (25.5) (27.8) 3,915 9.4 3.6

Nuvoco Vistas $ 4.3 10.5 1.0 4,726 2.6 (3.5) 949 (1.1) (21.3) 3,777 3.6 2.3

Orient Cem 1.5 42.6 7.0 4,924 5.3 (3.0) 1,065 (4.0) (22.2) 3,859 8.2 4.1

Ramco Cem 2.4 7.3 11.0 5,397 (2.8) (4.5) 1,404 (25.8) (14.2) 3,992 9.1 (0.5)

Sagar Cem $ 0.9 27.9 5.0 4,285 (5.0) (4.0) 947 (34.7) (22.2) 3,338 9.0 2.8

Shree Cement 6.6 1.6 (3.0) 4,826 5.1 (3.0) 1,271 (15.9) (13.8) 3,555 15.4 1.5

Star Cem $ 0.7 0.3 (14.5) 6,456 8.9 (4.0) 891 (26.9) (27.0) 5,565 18.2 1.1

UltraTech Cem $ 23.1 14.8 7.2 5,385 4.3 (2.0) 1,306 (2.6) (15.0) 4,078 6.7 3.0

Total 68.9 11.3 3.5 5,089 2.4 (2.7) 1,117 (12.5) (19.1) 3,973 7.6 3.2

Source: Company, HSIE Research, $ - Consol numbers, For ACC/Ambuja, estimates to pertains to Q3CY21E, In case of Nuvoco, 2QFY21

EBITDA/APAT are our estimates

Cement: 2QFY22 Results Preview

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Cement: 2QFY22 Results Preview

Estimates revision summary

Estimates revision summary

Sales vol (mn MT) Vol chg. (%) Net sales (INR bn) Net sales chg. (%)

FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E

UltraTech $ 93.8 101.1 113.0 - - - 500.7 547.9 618.0 - - -

Shree Cem 29.1 32.6 36.8 - - - 139.1 157.8 181.9 - - -

Ambuja Cem 27.2 29.3 31.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 139.4 152.7 165.7 3.0 3.0 3.0

ACC $ 30.4 32.5 37.0 - - - 169.7 183.6 209.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Dalmia Bharat $ 23.8 27.1 30.5 - - - 122.0 136.2 154.6 - - -

Nuvoco Vistas $ 15.9 20.0 23.1

74.9 103.4 122.0

Ramco Cem 10.8 12.6 13.6 - - - 59.8 69.7 76.0 1.9 0.9 0.9

JK Cement $ 13.4 15.0 17.3 - - - 75.5 86.2 100.4 - - -

Birla Corp $ 15.4 19.2 21.1 - - - 74.3 86.9 95.3 - - -

Heidelberg 5.2 5.6 6.0 - - - 24.6 26.7 29.1 (1.5) (1.5) (1.5)

Star Cem $ 3.4 4.0 4.6 (2.3) (2.3) (2.3) 21.2 24.6 27.9 (2.2) (1.2) (0.6)

JK Lakshmi $ 11.7 12.6 13.5 - - - 53.8 58.6 63.6 - - -

Orient Cem 5.9 6.4 7.0 - - - 28.0 29.9 32.6 - - -

Sagar Cem $ 3.7 5.1 5.6 - - - 16.0 21.4 23.8 - - -

Deccan Cem 1.9 2.0 2.5 - - - 8.3 8.8 11.0 - - -

Source: Company, HSIE Research, $ - Consol numbers, For ACC and Ambuja, the financial year is CY21E/22E/23E resp

EBITDA (INR bn) EBITDA chg. (%) APAT (INR bn) APAT chg. (%)

FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E

UltraTech $ 123.75 138.26 157.27 - - - 59.76 73.11 97.09 - - -

Shree Cem 44.15 51.69 59.56 - - - 24.82 29.00 32.81 - - -

Ambuja Cem 33.79 35.14 38.91 3.5 (2.0) 1.6 22.92 23.82 26.82 3.9 (2.1) 1.7

ACC $ 32.20 32.72 37.97 4.9 (1.7) (1.7) 20.28 20.59 22.94 5.8 (2.0) (2.1)

Dalmia Bharat $ 29.75 32.87 36.03 - - - 11.24 11.90 11.53 - - -

Nuvoco Vistas $ 14.61 23.23 28.04 - - - (0.26) 5.91 10.63 - - -

Ramco Cem 16.65 19.85 21.54 2.9 (0.8) (0.8) 8.08 10.31 11.69 4.1 (4.1) (5.5)

JK Cement $ 18.32 21.66 24.61 - - - 8.93 11.34 12.54 - - -

Birla Corp $ 14.71 17.35 19.68 - - - 4.86 5.82 7.80 - - -

Heidelberg 5.16 5.89 6.63 (17.9) (13.2) (11.6) 2.70 3.11 3.89 (21.8) (16.2) (14.3)

Star Cem $ 3.98 5.20 6.19 (11.2) (5.9) (2.9) 2.77 3.97 4.83 (14.0) (6.9) (3.4)

JK Lakshmi $ 9.49 11.45 12.70 (6.7) (2.7) (2.6) 4.28 5.56 6.39 (9.6) (3.6) (3.5)

Orient Cem 5.83 5.77 6.21 - - - 2.47 2.54 2.91 - - -

Sagar Cem $ 3.92 5.01 5.42 - - - 1.50 1.98 2.20 - - -

Deccan Cem 1.69 1.68 2.20 - - - 1.09 1.07 1.28 - - -

Source: Company, HSIE Research, $ - Consol numbers, For ACC and Ambuja, the financial year is CY21E/22E/23E resp

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Cement: 2QFY22 Results Preview

Operating assumptions summary

Operational assumptions/estimates for coverage universe

Sales Vol (mn MT) Sales Vol YoY (%) NSR (INR/MT) EBITDA (INR/MT) Opex (INR/MT)

FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E

UltraTech $ 93.8 101.1 113.0 8.6 7.8 11.7 5,280 5,359 5,413 1,262 1,309 1,335 4,018 4,050 4,078

Shree Cem 29.1 32.6 36.8 8.3 12.1 13.0 4,722 4,787 4,889 1,512 1,580 1,612 3,209 3,204 3,274

Ambuja Cem 27.2 29.3 31.4 19.9 8.0 7.0 5,129 5,202 5,278 1,244 1,197 1,239 3,885 4,005 4,039

ACC $ 30.4 32.5 37.0 19.1 7.0 13.7 5,083 5,131 5,173 1,002 947 969 4,081 4,184 4,204

Dalmia

Bharat $ 23.8 27.1 30.5 15.0 14.0 12.3 5,122 5,019 5,069 1,249 1,211 1,181 3,872 3,808 3,888

Nuvoco $ 20.0 23.1 24.1 25.7 15.5 4.3 4,666 4,713 4,689 1,134 1,177 1,130 3,532 3,536 3,559

Ramco Cem 10.8 12.6 13.6 8.0 17.0 8.0 5,482 5,476 5,529 1,507 1,544 1,554 3,976 3,932 3,975

JK Cement $ 13.4 15.0 17.3 12.0 11.5 15.6 5,618 5,752 5,796 1,363 1,446 1,421 4,255 4,306 4,376

Birla Corp $ 15.4 19.2 21.1 15.3 24.4 9.9 4,744 4,833 4,934 963 985 1,041 3,781 3,848 3,893

Heidelberg 5.2 5.6 6.0 16.0 7.0 7.0 4,718 4,789 4,885 991 1,058 1,112 3,727 3,731 3,773

Star Cem $ 3.4 4.0 4.6 27.4 17.0 15.0 6,145 6,107 6,029 1,158 1,293 1,338 4,994 4,814 4,691

JK Lakshmi $ 11.7 12.6 13.5 12.1 7.8 7.0 4,592 4,638 4,708 810 907 940 3,783 3,732 3,768

Orient Cem 5.9 6.4 7.0 17.0 9.0 8.0 4,740 4,645 4,692 987 896 893 3,754 3,749 3,799

Sagar Cem $ 3.7 5.1 5.6 16.5 37.7 10.1 4,339 4,221 4,264 1,063 987 972 3,276 3,234 3,292

Deccan Cem 1.9 2.0 2.5 7.0 7.0 23.8 4,317 4,295 4,338 881 818 869 3,436 3,477 3,469

Source: Company, HSIE Research, $ - Consol number, For ACC and Ambuja, the financial year is CY21E/22E/23E resp

Peer set valuations and TP revisions

Rating and target price revision summary

Company Mcap

(INR bn)

CMP

(INR/sh)

New

Rating

Old

Rating New TP Old TP

Valuation

multiple^

EV/EBITDA (x) EV/MT (INR bn)

FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E

UltraTech $ 2,144.1 7,428 BUY BUY 8,490 8,155 16.0 17.7 15.3 12.9 17.9 16.7 14.9

Shree Cem 1,010.4 28,005 REDUCE REDUCE 28,400 27,500 16.5 21.6 18.3 15.7 21.8 19.6 17.5

Ambuja Cem 812.1 409 ADD ADD 390 400 14.0 20.1 17.3 15.2 21.7 19.3 18.9

ACC 434.5 2,314 BUY BUY 2,670 2,610 12.0 11.6 12.2 10.4 10.8 10.2 10.1

Dalmia Bharat 385.6 2,067 ADD ADD 2,240 2,210 13.0 13.6 13.1 12.3 11.7 12.4 10.0

Nuvoco Vistas 166.4 528 BUY BUY 827 827 11.0 9.6 7.7 7.4 9.3 8.6 8.3

Ramco Cem 235.0 996 ADD REDUCE 1,096 1,044 13.0 15.6 13.0 11.8 13.4 12.6 12.5

JK Cement 266.6 3,450 ADD ADD 3,295 3,210 11.5 15.7 13.3 11.5 14.7 14.7 12.0

Birla Corp 109.9 1,427 BUY BUY 1,634 1,545 8.5 10.1 8.6 7.2 7.6 7.3 7.0

Heidelberg 58.2 257 ADD ADD 250 283 8.5 10.8 9.7 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.5

Star Cem 42.9 104 BUY BUY 130 130 8.0 9.5 7.2 6.3 8.1 7.5 6.2

JK Lakshmi 74.5 633 BUY BUY 780 850 8.0 9.0 7.2 6.7 6.1 6.0 5.2

Orient Cem 33.4 163 BUY BUY 185 187 7.5 6.4 7.2 7.5 4.4 4.9 5.5

Sagar Cem 34.8 296 ADD BUY 295 285 7.5 10.6 8.3 7.6 5.0 5.0 5.0

Deccan Cem 10.8 768 ADD ADD 785 800 6.5 6.5 7.8 6.8 4.9 4.3 3.5

Source: Company, HSIE Research, For ACC and Ambuja, the financial year is CY21E/22E/23E resp, ^ Target multiples are EV/EBITDA based on Sept’23E

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Cement: 2QFY22 Results Preview

HDFC securities

Institutional Equities

Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,

Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013

Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

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