130ºE 140ºE 150ºE Annual Report 1 2009 - 2010160ºE 170ºE … · 2017. 5. 13. · Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia Palau Papua New Guinea East Timor Solomon Islands

Marshall IslandsFederated States of Micronesia

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Papua New Guinea

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Tonga Niue

Samoa

Cook Islands

KiribatiKiribati

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Tuvalu

Nauru

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Annual Report 1 2009 - 2010

contentsList of

Executive Summary 4

List of Abbreviations 7

1. Introduction 8 1.1 Visionstatement 8 1.2 Objectives 9 1.3 Partnercountries 9 1.4 Programcomponents 9

2. Addressing the Program’s Objectives 12 2.1 Provisionofscientificinformation 12 2.1.1 Managementofclimatedataandanalysisofdatatrends 13 2.1.2 Extremeevents 14 2.1.3 Understandinglargescaleclimatefeatures 14 2.1.4 Climateprojections 15 2.1.5 Oceanprocessesandchanges 16 2.1.6 Remainingscientificgaps 17 2.2. Buildingcapacityofpartnercountriesinclimatechangescience 18 2.2.1 Processofengagement 18 2.2.2 Regionalworkshops 19 2.3 Informationdissemination 23

3. Progress 24 3.1 Component1:Currentandrecentclimate 24 3.1.1 Descriptionofcomponent1 24 3.1.2 Summaryofprogressincomponent1 24 3.2 Component2:Regionaldrivers 26 3.2.1 Descriptionofcomponent2 26 3.2.2 Summaryofprogressincomponent2 26 3.3 Component3:Climatechangeprojections 27 3.3.1 Descriptionofcomponent3 27 3.3.2 Summaryofprogressincomponent3 28 3.4 Component4:Oceansandsealevelrise 29 3.4.1 Descriptionofcomponent4 30 3.4.2 Summaryofprogressincomponent4 31 3.5 Component5:Scienceinformationsynthesisandcommunication 32 3.5.1 Descriptionofcomponent5 32 3.5.2 Summaryofprogressincomponent5 32

4. Concluding remarks 34

Annex 1 PCCSPPublications 35

Annex 2 PresentationsonPCCSPandPCCSPscience atexternalmeetingsandconferences 37

List of figures

1 FrameworkforthePCCSP 10 2 Emissionsscenarios 15 3a Averageannualcyclonedensitiesforallseasons 25 3b AverageannualcyclonedensitiesforElNiñoseasons 25 3c AverageannualcyclonedensitiesforLaNiñaseasons 25 4 PositionoftheMonsoon,SPCZandITCZ 27 5 Climateprojections:Potentialtailoredproducts 29 6 Climateprojections:Identifiedusergroups&sectors 29

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summaryExecutive

The Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) has been developed to assist decision makers and planners in 14 Pacific island countries and East Timor better understand how their climate and oceans have changed and how they may change in the future. The Program has been set up to deliver early results in priority knowledge areas while providing the base upon which longer-term climate change science outcomes can be delivered. It is part of the larger International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative.

The 15 PCCSP partner countries are Cook Islands, East Timor, Federated States ofMicronesia,Fiji,Kiribati,MarshallIslands,Nauru,Niue,Palau,PapuaNewGuinea,Samoa,SolomonIslands,Tonga,TuvaluandVanuatu.

ThisreportisthefirstAnnualReportforthePCCSPandsummarisesprogressindeliveringthePCCSPover theperiod1July2009 to30June2010.ThePCCSPconsistsoffivecomponents,fourofwhichcoverresearch:

•Component 1:Currentandrecentclimate;

•Component 2:Regionaldrivers;

•Component 3: Climatechangeprojections;

•Component 4:Oceansandsealevelrise;and

•Component 5: Scienceinformationsynthesisandcommunication.

The components interact with each other and involve research, training and capacitybuilding,andinformationsharing.Onaverageacrossthefivecomponents,atleast40%oftheworkhasbeencompletedmakingthePCCSPonscheduletodeliverall thefinalproducts by 31 December 2011. As the PCCSP embarks on its second year of

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implementation,therewillbeagreaterfocuson in-country activities to engage manymorestakeholdersinthepartnercountries.

This Annual Report presents the progressmade towards each of the PCCSP’s threemain objectives. The first objective seeksto provide meteorological, climatologicalandoceanographic (physical and chemical)information, particularly in areas wherethere are identified gaps in partner countryknowledge. In the PCCSP’s first year,significantresearchhasbeenundertakenontheanalysisofcurrentclimatetrendsandthelarge-scaleclimatefeaturesthatdriveclimatevariability.ThereliabilityoftheGlobalClimateModels used in the Fourth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change has been evaluated in theregion and interim projections prepared.Work on downscaling climate modeloutputs to 60 km is underway to providemore detailed information for each partnercountry.Inaddition,downscalingto8kmisbeingundertakenforselectedcountries.Analysisoftheregionalchangesinsealevelandextremesealeveleventshasbeenadvanced,togetherwithanimprovedunderstandingoftrendsandfutureprojectionsforoceanacidificationandoceanpropertiesandprocesses.

Recognising the urgent need for countryspecific climate and ocean projectioninformation to inform adaptation planning,the PCCSP has revised its schedule andadvanced the preparation of some of theplannedpeerreviewedjournalpapers.Thefullresults of the research will be available byNovember2011.

The second major objective of the PCCSPis to build the capacity of partner countryscientific organisations, where feasible,

to undertake scientific research to support the provision of this information. Thisobjective has also been a major focus in the first year. Activities have includedthree regional workshops, and several in-country visits. These have all beenextremely successful in building the knowledge base for climate science inthepartnercountriesandinsharinginformationaboutthePCCSPwithpartnercountries

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and regional organisations.Ongoing communicationwith identified focal points,technical representativesand other stakeholders is aregular part of the PCCSP’sengagementprocess.

Dissemination of the climatescience information topartner countries and otherstakeholders, the thirdobjective of the PCCSP,has been conducted usinga variety of delivery modesguided by the PCCSPCommunication Plan,revised in May 2010. Sharing of information with partner country stakeholders hasbeena focusduring the three regionalworkshopsandseveral in-country visits. Fournewclimatesciencesoftwaretoolshavebeendevelopedanddemonstratedtopartnercountriesandfeedbackobtained.AnumberofpresentationsonthePCCSPhavebeenmadeatinternationalandregionalmeetingsandconferences.Twopeerreviewedjournalpapershavebeenpublishedandelevenothersareunderpreparation.Adetailedoutlineofthefinaltechnicalreporthasbeenpreparedandcirculatedwidely,andthezeroorder(first)draftofthisreporthasbeencompiled.Finally,ageneralbrochureonthePCCSPhasbeenpreparedandwasprintedintimefordistributionatthePacificIslandsForuminAugust2010.

Partnercountries,regionalorganisationsandPCCSPresearchershavealsocontributedtoananalysisof thegaps inclimatechangesciencethatneedtobefilled.Amongtheidentified gaps are: broader communication and capacity building of partner countrystakeholders in climate change science; improved monitoring of climate and oceanicvariables; robustattributionof climatechange tonatural and/oranthropogenic factors;updated atmospheric and oceanic projections using the new emissions scenarios andmodels for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange;detailedprojectionsforextremeeventsincludingco-incidentevents;andimpactofimprovedatmosphericandoceanprojectionsonselectedsectorsandregions.

ThePCCSPpresentsauniqueandchallengingopportunitytoprovidepartnercountrieswith a solid scientific foundation on which to base their adaptation responses. Allthescientificandsupport staffworkingon thePCCSParededicated tomeeting thischallenge.

summaryExecutive

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abbreviationsList of

AusAID Australian Agency for International Development

BoM Bureau of Meteorology

CAWCR Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

CCAM Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model

CDMS Climate data management system

COP Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

DCCEE Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation

ERA European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis

GA Geoscience Australia

GCM Global Climate Model

GCOS Global Climate Observing System

ICCAI International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC AR4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

IPCC AR5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report

ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

LSE Large Scale Environment

MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MSLP Mean sea level pressure

NCEP National Centre for Environmental Prediction

NIWA National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (New Zealand)

NMS National Meteorological Service

NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA)

PACC Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change Project

PASAP Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program

PCCSP Pacific Climate Change Science Program

SOI Southern Oscillation Index

SPC Secretariat of the Pacific Community

SPCZ South Pacific Convergence Zone

SOPAC Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission

SPREP Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme

SST Sea surface temperature

TCLV Tropical cyclone-like vortex

TCRM Tropical Cyclone Risk Model

USP University of the South Pacific

WMO World Meteorological Organisation

WPM West Pacific Monsoon

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ThePacificClimateChangeScienceProgram (PCCSP)hasbeendeveloped toassist decision makers and planners in 14 Pacific island countries and East Timor better understand how their climate and oceans have changed and how they may change in the future.TheProgramhasbeensetuptodeliverearlyresultsinpriorityknowledgeareas while also providing the base upon which longer-term climate change scienceoutcomes can be delivered. It is part of the International ClimateChangeAdaptationInitiative(ICCAI).

The ICCAI is jointlymanagedby theAustralianAgency for InternationalDevelopment(AusAID) and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE).TheobjectivesoftheICCAIareto:

1.1 Vision statementThe PCCSP is a partnership between Australianscience agencies andPacific island countries andEastTimor, carried out in collaboration with Pacific regionalorganisations, with the objective of conducting acomprehensiveclimatechangescienceresearchprogramtoprovidebetter informationaboutthelikely impactsofclimatechangetostakeholdersinparticipatingcountries.

Introduction

Establishasoundpolicy,scientificandanalyticalbasisforlong-termAustralianactiontohelppartnercountriesadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange;

Increaseunderstandinginpartnercountriesoftheimpactsofclimate changeontheirnaturalandsocio-economicsystems;

Enhancepartnercountrycapacitytoassesskeyclimatevulnerabilities andrisks,formulateappropriateadaptationstrategiesandplans,and mainstreamadaptationintodecisionmaking;and

Identifyandfinancepriorityadaptationmeasuresthatcanimmediately increasetheresilienceofpartnercountriestotheimpactsofclimatechange.

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1.2 ObjectivesTheobjectivesofthePCCSPareto:

1.3 Partner countriesThe15PCCSPpartnercountriesare:

1.4 Program componentsThePCCSPconsistsoffivecomponents,fourofwhichcoverresearch,andthefifthfocusesonscienceinformationsynthesisandcommunication:

•Component 1:Currentandrecentclimate;

•Component 2:Regionaldrivers; •Component 3:Climatechangeprojections;

•Component 4:Oceansandsealevelrise;and • Component 5:Scienceinformationsynthesisandcommunication.

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Cook Islands Marshall Islands Samoa

EastTimor Nauru SolomonIslands

FederatedStatesofMicronesia Niue Tonga

Fiji Palau Tuvalu

Kiribati PapuaNewGuinea Vanuatu

Provide meteorological, climatological and oceanographic (physical andchemical)information,particularlyinareaswherethereareidentifiedgapsinpartnercountryknowledge;

Buildthecapacityofpartnercountryscientificorganisations,wherefeasible,toundertakescientificresearchtosupporttheprovisionofthisinformation;and

Disseminatetheinformationtopartnercountriesandotherstakeholders.

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1Introduction

The components interact with each other and involve research, training and capacitybuilding,andinformationsharing.Figure 1 showsaframeworkforhowthecomponentsworktogethertowardsproducingthefinaloutputs.

Figure 1: Framework for the Pacific Climate Change Science Program.

The PCCSP’s new station data portal provides partner countries with interactive access to historical climate series and a suite of data analysis tools to enhance

the understanding of climate variability and change over recent decades.

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1

PCCSP researchers discuss cross component issues at the PCCSP Internal Workshop, 22-24 February 2010.

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the Program’sAddressing

This section discusses how PCCSPactivitiesin2009-2010haveaddressedthethreeobjectives:(a)fillingidentifiedscientificgapsintheexistingknowledgebase; (b) building capacity of partnercountries in climate change science;and(c)disseminatingtheinformation.

2.1 Provision of scientific informationThePCCSPwasdesignedtoaddressthefollowingmajorgapsinclimatechangescienceinthepartnercountries:

Twoscientificpaperspresentingresultshavealreadybeenpublishedinacademicjournalsandelevenothershavebeensubmittedforpublicationorareclosetosubmission,seelistinAnnex1.AllfindingswillbeincludedinatechnicalreportClimate change in the Pacificandthefirst(zero-order)draftofthisreportwascompiledinJune2010.

In2009-2010 representatives frompartnercountries, regionalorganisationsandotherprojects have emphasised an urgent need for specific climate and ocean projectioninformationtoinformadaptationplanning.Recognisingthisurgentneed,theProgram’sschedulehasbeenrevisedtoadvancethepreparationofsomeplannedpeerreviewedjournal papers to provide regional and national partners with verifiable projectioninformationasearlyaspossible.

ProgressuptoJune2010inprovidingthescientificinformationisdescribedingeneraltermsinsections2.1.1to2.1.5,whilesection2.1.6focusesonfurthergapsthatneedtobefilledafterthePCCSP.Section3ofthisreportdescribesprogresscomponentbycomponent.

Objectives.

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Managementofclimatedataandanalysisofdatatrends;

Extremeevents,includingtropicalcyclones;

Understandingof large-scaleclimate features in thePacific region, includingthemaindriverofclimatevariability–theElNiño-SouthernOscillation(ENSO);

Climateprojectionsintheregionandforspecificcountries;and

Understanding of ocean processes and how theymay change in the futureunderglobalwarming,especiallysealevelriseandoceanacidification.

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2.1.1 Management of climate data and analysis of data trends

The climate of the Pacific is changing. Scientific studies show an increase in averagetemperaturesthroughouttheregionduringthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury.Changesinrainfalloverrecentdecadesaremorevariedthanthoseoftemperature.Overtheperiod1960-2000mostlocationsnortheastofalinedrawnfromtheSolomonIslandstotheCookIslandsrecordedincreasedrainfall,contrastingwithdeclinestothesoutheastofthisline.Changesinextremerainfallhavetendedtomirrortheshiftsintotalrain.Allrainfalltrendsdisplaygreatnatural variability associatedwith climatephenomena suchasENSO.Unfortunately littledataandfewsoundstudiesexistforotherclimatevariables,suchassolarradiation.Manyoftheexistingstudiesareout-of-dateandrelyonincompleteandinconsistentdatarecords,creatingseriousproblemsgiventheneedforenhancedscrutinyofhistoricalobservationalrecords.

Scientists from the PCCSP are working closely with partner countries to address theseproblems and rescue, collate and analyse existing climate records from observationalstationsintheregion.Thisinvolvesimprovingmethodsofstorageandmanagementofdata.A customised climate databasemanagement system has been designed as part of theProgramandwillbetestedandinstalledinpartnercountriesin2011.Theprovisionofthedatabase,togetherwithappropriatetraininginitsuse,willsupportNationalMeteorologicalServices(NMS)andenablethemtoimprovetheirclimatedatastorage,climateservicesandundertakemoreclimateresearchworkinthefuture.

Many climate data recordsin the partner countriescontain inconsistenciesassociated with changesin instrumentation andrecording methods. A newweb-based climate dataportal that incorporatesa range of interactivenavigation controls andgeospatial information hasbeen developed. This willenable NMS to check forerrors and inconsistenciesintheirdatarecords,therebyimprovingthequalityoftheirdatatrendsandanalysesandidentifypatternsofchange.

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2.1.2 Extreme events

Tropical cyclones are among the mostdestructive natural hazards affectingmillions of people around the world eachyear. There is some uncertainty as tohow climate change influences tropicalcyclones. Detecting trends in tropicalcyclones requires long, accurate datarecords.Changesinrecordingpracticescaninfluence the analysis of tropical cyclonetrends.Forexample,sincetheearly1970stherehasbeenanincreaseinavailabledatawiththeintroductionofsatellites.Arigorousanalysis of the data is being undertakenby the PCCSP. This includes a detailed

investigation into the influence of large-scale climatic features, e.g. ENSO, on tropicalcyclone variability. In addition, a web-based portal ‘Tropical cyclones in the southernhemisphere’isbeingfurtherdevelopedasatoolforNMStoaccessandanalysetropicalcyclonehistoricaldata.

Stormsurgescauseelevatedsealevelswhichcanresultinfloodingandcoastalerosion.Assealevelrises,theimpactofextremesealevelevents,duetostormsurgesandhightides,willbecomemoresevere.PCCSPscientistsareworkingtodevelopabetterunderstandingoftheregionalpatternofsealevelriseintheregionandtoquantifythelikelihoodofextremesealevelevents.Thiswillprovideinformationneededbypartnercountriestoplancoastaldevelopment, aswell as safeguarding existing coastal infrastructure, agriculture,waterresourcesandsitesofculturalsignificance.

2.1.3 Understanding large- scale climate features

The climates in partner countries are stronglyinfluencedbyoneormoreofthefollowingfeaturesof the climate: the South Pacific ConvergenceZone(SPCZ),theWestPacificMonsoon(WPM),the Inter-TropicalConvergenceZone (ITCZ)andENSO.Thesefeaturescan‘drive’rainfall,winds,tropicalcyclonetracks,oceancurrents,nutrientsand many other aspects of the environment.Despite their fundamental importance to theregion, there are still major deficiencies in

PCCSP scientist and NMS representatives discuss climate drivers at the PCCSP Technical

Workshop, Vanuatu, 12-16 October.

Photo: Courtesy of the Climate Change Office, Ministry of Environment, Conservation

and Meteorology, Solomon Islands.


Objectives.

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2055

2090

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A2: (High)

A1B: (Medium)

B1: (Low)

understandingtheirpropertiesandimpacts.PCCSPscientistsareaddressingthissignificantknowledgegapbyworkingwithpartnercountries’NMStoincreasetheunderstandingoftheimpactofthesedriversontheircountries.Thisresearchincludesexamininghowwell theclimatemodelssimulatethedrivers,andhowthesedriversmightchangeinthefutureunderglobalwarming.Forexample,arainfallprojectioninonecountrymightbeexplainedasashiftinthepositionoftheSPCZandthereforearesultofnaturalvariabilityintheclimate.

2.1.4 Climate projections

Limited information iscurrentlyavailableonclimateprojectionsforthePacific.TheIPCCFourth Assessment Report (AR4) providesannual and seasonal average temperatureandrainfallprojectionsforthewholePacificdivided into only two regions (north andsouth)andprojectionsofglobalaveragesea-level.ThePCCSPwillprovidemoredetailedatmosphericandoceanprojectionsforeachpartnercountry.

Twenty-three global climate models usedbythe IPCC,plusanadditionalmodel fromCSIRO,havebeenevaluatedbycomparingthepresent-day climate simulations againsthistorical observations. The most realisticmodelshavebeenusedtocreateprojectionsfor each country for time periods centred on 2030, 2055 and 2090 for three differentgreenhousegasandaerosolemissionsscenarios(Figure 2).Dynamicaldownscaling(usingfinerresolutionclimatemodels),combinedwithstatisticaldownscalingforselectedregions,isbeingundertakentoprovidemoredetailedinformation.Atmosphericprojectionsforeachcountry are being prepared for temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, evaporation, solarradiationandextremeweatherevents.

ThePCCSPisapplyinganewapproachcalledClimateFuturestodevelopprojectionsforpartnercountries.Thisapproachgroupstheprojectionsfromindividualmodelstoformasetofinternallyconsistentclimatefutures,e.g.groupingthemodelsthatshowawarmerandwetterclimateforaparticularcountryanddevelopingprojectionsusingthatgroupofmodels,thenfollowingthesameprocedureformodelsthatshowahotteranddrierfutureclimate,andsoon.Thisisamorescientificallyrobustmethodthanmixingprojectionsfromdifferentmodels.Aweb-basedClimateFuturestoolisbeingdevelopedbythePCCSPtohelppartnercountriesaccessnationalclimateprojections.Thistoolhasalreadybeendemonstratedtopartnercountriesandvaluablefeedbackobtained.

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Figure 2| Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (parts per million, ppm) associated with the three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). The

PCCSP will analyse climate model results for periods centred on 1990, 2030, 2055 and 2090 (shaded).

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ThePCCSPhasprovidedadviceonthemostrobustandup-to-dateprojectionsavailablefor the development of AusAID’s country-specific climate change profiles.Many of thepartnercountriesarepreparingtheirSecondNationalCommunications(SNC)totheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.AdvicehasbeenprovidedtoseveralpartnercountriesonhowtoaccesscountryspecificinformationfromtheIPCCAR4.ThePCCSPiscollaboratingcloselywiththeUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)toensurethatthenewprojectioninformation,onceithasbeenpeerreviewed,willbemadeavailabletopartnercountriesforuseintheirSNCs.

2.1.5 Ocean processes and changes

The atmosphere and theocean are closely linked soit is vital to understand thenature of the interaction andhowitwillchangewithglobalwarming. Changes in theoceanwillalsodirectlyimpactbiological systems includingfisheries and coral reefs. ThePCCSPisworkingwithpartnercountries to understand howthe increased heat enteringthe ocean will change oceancurrents,salinity,temperaturesandthesupplyofnutrients.

Manypartnercountriesarealreadyexperiencingsealevelrise.ProjectionsforsealevelrisefromtheIPCCAR4,includinganallowanceforadynamicice-sheetresponse,areabout18to80cmby2100.However,theIPCCcautionedalargerrisewaspossiblebutthelikelihoodcouldnotyetbeassessed.Morerecentprojectionssuggestthatariseofuptoonemetreormoreispossibleby2100.Significantuncertaintiesarestillpresentinimportantaspectsofsealevelscience.PCCSPscientistsaremappingregionaldistributionsofsealevelriseforrecentdecadesandforthe21stcentury.

Theoceanisamajorsinkforatmosphericcarbondioxide.Itabsorbsaboutonequarterofthecarbondioxideemissionsresultingfromhumanactivitieseachyear.Thishelpstoslow the rateofatmosphericcarbondioxide increasebut results inoceanacidification.This in turndecreases the capacity of reef building corals, calcareousalgaeandmanyotherkeyspeciesintropicalecosystemstogrowcalciumcarbonateskeletonsandshells.TheresearchbeingundertakeninthePCCSPaimstounderstandhowoceanacidification


Objectives.

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impacts the Pacific region. Scientists are analysing regional measurements and oceancarboncyclemodelstoprojectfuturechangesunderdifferentgreenhousegasemissionsscenarios.Thisresearchwillprovideasolidfoundationforassessingtheriskofacidificationtothemanyreefsystemsthroughouttheregion.

2.1.6 Remaining scientific gaps

During2009-2010,agapsandneedsanalysisofclimatechangescienceintheregionwasconducted.Thiswasbasedonfeedbackfrompartnercountriesandregionalorganisationsduring three regionalworkshopsandseveral in-countryvisits.TheanalysisshowedgapsthatneedtobeaddressedafterthePCCSPhasbeencompleted:

Communication and capacity building are key objectives of the PCCSP and are beingdeliveredandundertakeninavarietyofways(thesewillbediscussedindetailinthefollowingsections).Particularlysinceclimatechangescienceisarelativelynewfield,andisperceivedasaveryrelevantareaamongpartnercountries,thereisahugedemandforincreasedeffortsincommunicationandcapacitybuilding.

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Broader communication of climate change science to partner countrystakeholders;

Furthercapacitybuildingandeducation;

Reducinguncertaintyinatmosphericandoceanicprojections;

Robustattributionofclimatechangetonaturaland/oranthropogenicfactors;

Updatedregionalandcountryspecificatmosphericandoceanprojectionsfor2020 to2100andbeyond for thenew IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)FifthAssessmentemissionsscenariosandclimatesimulations;

Moredetailedprojections forextremeevents includingco-incidentextremeevents;and

Detailedatmosphericandoceanicprojectionsforselectedeconomicsectorsandregions.

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2.2 Building capacity of partner countries in climate change science

2.2.1 Process for engagement

WithaPrograminvolvingmorethan60researchscientists,andstakeholdersin15partnercountries,itwasfirstimportanttoestablishaclearpathofcommunication.PCCSPFocalPointswereestablishedineachcountry,theseareforthemostpartrepresentativesfromagencieschargedwiththeenvironmentportfolio.PCCSPTechnicalRepresentativeswerealsoidentifiedandthesearegenerallyfromtheNMS.Thecommunicationprocessworkswellandhasbeenendorsedbyeachcountry.

Ongoingengagementwiththepartnercountriesandregionalorganisationsisanimportantpart of capacity building. Direct engagement takes place during in-country visits andregionalworkshops.Thefocusforpartnercountriesduring2009-2010hasbeenonregionalworkshops,butthiswillshifttoafocusoncapacitybuildingduringin-countryvisitsinthesecondyearofthePCCSP.ThecountriesarekeptinformedaboutsignificantmilestonesintheProgramandtheirfeedbackisactivelyencouraged.

Recognising that air travel contributes a significant amount of carbon dioxide into theatmosphere,theadditionalcarbongeneratedbyallPCCSPrelatedairtravelandeventsisoffsetthroughtreeplantingprogramsinWesternAustralia.Similarprogramshavenotyetbeenidentifiedinthepartnercountries.

CollaborationwithregionalorganisationshasbeenanothermajorfocusduringthefirstyearofthePCCSP.ThisisextremelyimportantforbuildingsustainabilityandregionalownershipoftheoutcomesofthePCCSP.Duringthesecondhalfof2009,meetingswereheldwiththePacific IslandsAppliedGeoscienceCommission (SOPAC),Secretariatof thePacificCommunity(SPC),SecretariatofthePacificRegionalEnvironmentProgramme(SPREP),UNDP,UniversityofHawai’i,andtheUniversityoftheSouthPacific(USP).ThisresultedinspecificcollaborationonPCCSPactivities,inparticularwithSPREP,UNDPandUSP(directcollaborationwithSPChadcommencedbeforeJuly2009).

Within the framework oftheICCAI,thePCCSPhasalsocollaborateddirectlywith Pacific AdaptationStrategy AssistanceProgram (PASAP), e.g.in the implementationof the PCCSP Climateand Ocean ProjectionsWorkshop,heldinCairns,22-26March2010.

PCCSP Climate Data, Variability and Change, Research and Training Workshop 31 May – 9 June 2010: Darwin Convention Centre, Darwin, Australia.


Objectives.

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PCCSP Technical Workshop, 12-16 October, 2009, Vanuatu.

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ThePCCSPisrepresentedonthePASAPManagementCommitteeandthishasimprovedconnectionsbetweenthetwoPrograms,highlightedsynergiesandlimitations,andledtomodificationofsomePCCSPmilestonessothatthescientificfindingscanbetter informadaptation.

The PCCSP has also been represented at several international events, e.g. the PacificClimateChangeRoundTableheldintheMarshall Islands,19-21October2009.AlistofPCCSPpresentationsatinternationaleventsispresentedinAnnex2.

Developing fair and secure data sharing arrangements between PCCSP scientists andpartnercountrieshasbeenakeyprioritythatwasfirstdiscussedatthePCCSPRegionalWorkshopheldinVanuatu,12-16October2009.Asaresultofthosediscussions,anInterimAgreementonDataSecurityArrangementswaspreparedandsent topartner countriesinNovember2009.Asof30June2010,sixofthe15partnercountrieshavesignedtheAgreement.

2.2.2 Regional workshops

ThreePCCSPregionalworkshopshavebeenconducted:

PCCSPRegionalWorkshop,Vanuatu,12-16October2009;

PCCSPClimateandOceanProjectionsWorkshop,Cairns,22-26March2010;and

PCCSPClimateData,VariabilityandChangeResearchandTrainingWorkshop, Darwin,31May–9June2010.

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Climate and Ocean Projections Workshop Report, 22-26 March 2010 – Cairns, Australia.

Partner country representatives described their country’s current climate,howtheirclimateischanging,climatedatamanagementstatus,andclimatechangeissues;

PCCSP scientists introduced the detailed components of the PCCSP andobtainedfeedback;and

ProgresswasmadeoncreatingasenseofownershipofthePCCSPamongpartnercountriessoastoencouragetheiractiveandongoingparticipation.

TheworkshopinVanuatuwasattendedby35participants,ofwhich16werefromPCCSP’spartnercountries’NMS.RepresentativesfromDCCEE,SPCandtheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO)alsoattended.Theworkshopachieveditsthreemainobjectives:

The workshop in Cairns was conducted in partnership with SPREP and PASAP. Thisfive-dayworkshopwasattendedbyatotalof63participants,ofwhich25werefromthePCCSP’s15partnercountries.Themajorityofthepartnercountryrepresentativescamefrom their country’s administration engaged in national planning, resource allocation,and/or mainstreaming of climate change and environment issues across government.

Representatives from AusAID, DCCEE, National Institute of Water and AtmosphericResearch(NIWA)NewZealand,SPCandSPREPalsoattendedthemeeting.ThefirstfourdaysoftheprogramweredevotedtoPCCSPandthefifthdaytoPASAP.Theworkshopachieveditsthreemainobjectives:


Objectives.

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Theworkshop inDarwinwasattendedby54participants,29ofwhomwere fromNMSand related agencies in all 15 partner countries. This workshop was also attendedby representatives from DCCEE, Environment Canada, the US National Oceanic andAtmosphericAgency(NOAA),NIWAandSPREP.

Theworkshopprogramintroducedconceptsrelatingtoclimatedatamanagement,dataquality control, trend analysis and correlation with climate driver indices. Participantswere introduced to a newly designed climate database management system and twodata analysis web portals, and feedback was obtained. Global climate models, andclimate and ocean projections were also introduced and the Climate Futures tool for

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Stakeholders from Samoa, together with PCCSP scientist, Yuriy Kuleshov (left), test the tropical cyclone web portal at the Climate Data, Variability and Change

Research and Training Workshop, held in Darwin, 31 May – 9 June 2010.

Participants’knowledgewasenhancedaboutobservedclimatetrends,driversofclimatevariability,globalclimatemodelapplicationsandtheirreliability,andthebenefitsofdownscaling;

InterimprojectionsforclimateandoceanchangesacrossthewholePCCSPregionwerepresentedandfeedbackreceived;and

TheprototypeoftheClimateFuturessoftwaretoolforcreatingprojectionsatthenationallevelwastestedandfeedbackreceived.

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country-specific projections was demonstrated. The highlight of the last three daysoftheworkshopwasthepreparationofcountryclimatesummaries,accompaniedbyPowerPointpresentationsbyeachpartnercountry.Duringthecomingmonths,partnercountriesandPCCSPscientistswillfurtherdevelopthesesummariestoformthebasisofpartofanappendixinthePCCSPfinaltechnicalreport.Thehighstandardofthesesummaries isaclear indicationof thebenefitsof thePCCSP’scapacitybuildingandtraining activities. Based on detailed evaluations conducted by the partner countryparticipants, these three workshops have been highly successful in building theknowledgebaseofclimatescience in thepartnercountriesand informationsharing.Full reports have been prepared and distributed for the first twoworkshops, and asimilarreportisbeingfinalisedfortheworkshopheldinDarwin.

AfterthesuccessoftheworkshopinCairns,partnersatSPREPinvitedthePCCSPtogiveaone-daypresentationonclimateandoceanprojectionsatthePacificAdaptationtoClimateChange(PACC)ProjectWorkshopheldinSamoafrom10-14April2010.ThreePCCSP scientists conducted the session and again there was considerable interestamongthePacificcountryrepresentativesinthepreliminaryclimateandoceanprojectioninformationthatwaspresented.

Screenshot of the tropical cyclone portal interface showing detailed information about Tropical Cyclone Heta.


Objectives.

2

23

32

2.3 Information disseminationDisseminationof information isan importantpartof thePCCSP.Specificways inwhichinformationhasbeendisseminated in thefirst full yearof theProgramare listedbelow(manyoftheseitemshavebeenmentionedinsection2.1and2.2):

In-countryvisitshavebeenundertakentoraiseawarenessaboutthePCCSPandgaininsightintostakeholderneeds.ThishasincludedvisitstoMarshallIslandsin October 2009, Fiji and Samoa in November 2009, Noumea in December2009 and East Timor in February 2010. In each country PCCSP staff gavepresentations and held discussionswith colleagues inministries responsibleforagriculture,environment,infrastructure,NMS,planningandwater.Meetingswere also held with regional organisations including SOPAC, SPC, SPREP,UNDP,andUSP;

Four software tools (climate database management system; climate portal;tropical cyclonewebportal;ClimateFutures tool) havebeendeveloped (seesections2.1.1and2.1.4)anddemonstratedtopartnercountriesandregionalorganisationsattheregionalworkshopsandfeedbackobtained;

Twopeerreviewedpapershavebeenpublishedinscientificjournalsandelevenothersareunderpreparationorhavebeensubmitted(Annex1);

PresentationsaboutthePCCSPhavebeenmadeatinternationalandregionaleventsandmeetings(Annex2);

ReportsontheregionalworkshopsinVanuatuandCairnshavebeenpreparedand sent to partner countries and regional organisations (the report on theDarwinworkshopisinfinalpreparation);informationsheetsandhandoutshavebeenprovidedat,andfollowing,thefourregionalworkshops;

Asix-pagebrochureonthePCCSP,targetingleadersofthepartnercountries,wasdistributedatthePacificIslandsForum,3-6August2010;

WorkisunderwayonamoresubstantivebrochuredetailingsomeinterimfindingsinpreparationfortheConferenceofPartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(COP)16inNovember2010;and

Adetailedoutlineofthefinal technicalreporthasbeenpreparedandsenttopartnercountriesforcomment;materialforthefirst(zeroorder)draftofthefinaltechnicalreportwascompiledbyendJune2010.

24

Progress3

This section summarises progress in delivering the PCCSP over the periodJuly2009toJune2010.Foreachcomponent,thereisabriefdescriptionandsummaryoftheprogresstodate.

3.1 Component 1: Current and recent climate

3.1.1 Description of Component 1

A rigorous assessment of recent climate variability and changewill underpin a betterunderstandingofthelikelyclimatechangeintheregionandisessentialforinterpretingand validatingprojections fromglobal climatemodels.Assessmentsof recent climatewill include analysis of existing meteorological records and augment existing oceanobservation programs. In some cases rehabilitation anddigitisation of recordswill berequired. Documentation of trends will significantly improve knowledge of the extenttowhichglobalwarming is already affecting the region.Quality observations are alsoessentialforimprovinglong-termprojectionsofclimateandforseasonalandinter-annualpredictionsofthelikelihoodofdroughts,floodsandotherclimaticextremes.

Therearethreeinter-relatedprojectsinthiscomponent:

•Datarescueandmanagement;

•Rehabilitationofmeteorologicaldata;and

•Improvingtheunderstandingoftropicalcycloneclimatology.

3.1.2 Summary of progress to date in Component 1

Project % complete Comments

Datarescueandmanagement 40 Projectisonscheduleandwillmeetmilestones.

Rehabilitationofmeteorologicaldata 53 Projectisonscheduleandwillmeetmilestones.Obtainingdatahasbeensomewhatchallenging.

Improvingtheunderstandingoftropicalcycloneclimatology

50 Projectisonscheduleandwillmeetmilestones.

25

33

Significantprogresshasbeenmadeincomponent1andalltheprojectsareonschedule,withsomeaheadofschedule.Threeweb-basedtools:aclimatedatabasemanagementsystem,climatedataportal,andatropicalcycloneportal,havebeendeveloped.Thesewill support the improvement of climate data storage, climate services and climateresearch work undertaken by partner countries. Input on user needs from partnercountrieshasbeencrucialforthesuccessfuldevelopmentofthesetools,whichhaveallbeendemonstratedduringregionalworkshops.ThestageisnowsetforthesetoolstobeinstalledinNMSandtrainingintheiruseprovided.

Some valuable scientific findings are already emerging from the analytical work.Temperaturesshowsubstantialwarmingwhichhascontinued into the21stcenturyatmostlocations.Thereisalsosomeevidenceofareversaloftherainfalltrendsobservedoverthelastfewdecadesofthe20thcentury.

Figure 3c: Average annual cyclone densities for La Niña

Figure 3b: Average annual cyclone densities for El Niño seasons, and;

Figure 3a: Average annual cyclone densities for all seasons;

26

3.2 Component 2: Regional drivers


ENSO,SPCZ,ITCZandtheWPMareimportant‘drivers’ofclimateintheregion.Thethreeinter-relatedprojectsinthiscomponentarefocusingongainingabetterunderstandingofthefourmaindrivers,inparticularhowtheyarecontrollingseasonalandlarge-scalechangesinrainfall,windsandtropicalcyclonesnow,aswellashowthiswillbealteredbyglobalwarminginthefuture.

Therearethreeinter-relatedprojectsinthiscomponent:

•ClimatechangeandENSOimpact;

•SPCZ;and

•WPMandITCZ.



ClimatechangeandENSOimpact

40 Projectisonscheduleandwillmeetmilestones.

SPCZ 40 Projectisonscheduleandwillmeetmilestones.

WPMandITCZ 35 Projecthashadsomedelaysduetorecruitmentdifficulties.Thishasnowbeenaddressedandmilestonesarebeingmet.

Extensiveworkhasbeenconductedonthemain‘drivers’ofPacificclimateandtheirimpacts.Thisincludesliteraturereviewsandassessmentsofhowthefour‘drivers’arerepresented in theglobal climatemodels.Diagnostic andanalytical toolshavebeendevelopedtoassessthemodels.Collaborativeworkisunderwaytogetherwiththeothercomponentstoevaluatethemodelsandworkisprogressingonjournalpublications.

Planning has been advanced for the first international meeting on the SPCZ. Thismeeting has been endorsed by theWorldClimateResearchProgrammeonClimateVariabilityandPredictability,InternationalPacificImplementationPanel.Themeeting,plannedforAugust2010,willbringtogetheranumberoftheworld’sSPCZexperts,aswellasseveralrepresentativesfromPCCSPpartnercountries.

Progress3

27

3

Figure 4: Position of the Monsoon, the SPCZ and the ITCZ shown by the rainfall they produce on average during December to February. The WPM is the eastern part of the Monsoon shown on this map.

3.3 Component 3: Climate change projections


Regionalprojectionsof likelychangestomeanandextremeweatherconditions(includingtropical cyclones) areneeded to assess vulnerability topotential climate change impactsandplanadaptationresponses.Thiscomponentwillprovidecomprehensiveandup-to-dateprojections,withsomeproductstailoredforuseinimpactstudiesandawareness-raising.

Key variables to be considered are surface air temperature, sea surface temperature,rainfall,windspeedanddirection,evaporation,humidity,andsolarradiation.Analysisofextremeswillfocusontemperature,rainfallandwinds,aswellastropicalcyclones.

Collaborationwithuniversitiesandresearchinstitutionswithexpertiseindeliveringresearchoutputs relevant to thePCCSP is an important featureof this component. Inparticular,thePCCSPiscollaboratingwithfourotherinstitutions(TheUniversityofMelbourne,TheUniversityofNewSouthWales,NIWAandIowaStateUniversity)toundertakeadditionaldynamicaldownscalingtocomplementtheCSIROdownscaling.

Therearesixinter-relatedprojectsinthiscomponent:

•Climateprojections; •Additionaldownscaling;

•Tropicalcyclones; •Dynamicaldownscaling;

•Statisticaldownscaling; •Tailoredprojects.

28



Climateprojections 50 Projectisaheadofscheduleandwillmeetmilestones.

Tropicalcyclones 40 Projectisonscheduleandwillmeetmilestones.

Dynamicaldownscaling 40 Projectonschedule,andwillmeetmilestones.

Additionaldownscaling 35 Projectisslightlybehindscheduleduetodelaysinsigningcontracts,butwillmeetmilestones.

Statisticaldownscaling 40 Projectonschedule,andwillmeetmilestones.

Tailoredproducts 40 Projectonschedule,andwillmeetmilestones.

The reliability of theGCMsused in the IPCC-AR4 to simulate key climate processesand average climate patterns has been evaluated together with other components.Sixmodelswere judged tohave inadequate reliabilityandhavenotbeenused in thepreparationofthePCCSPclimateprojections.Theselectedmodelshavebeenusedtoprepareprojectionsofkeyclimatevariables:temperature,rainfall,wind,humidity,solarradiationanddroughtforeachcountryfortwoemissionsscenarios(A2andA1B)centred

on2030,2055and2090.

To further complement theprojections fromtheGCMs,dynamical and statisticaldownscaling work is beingconducted.SixGCMshavebeen downscaled at 60 kmresolution over the wholePCCSP region from 1961-2100 for the A2 emissionscenario.Asetofcriteriawasusedtoselectsevenregions(eachmeasuringabout500x500km)fordownscalingat8km resolution. Downscalingto 8 km will be conductedin the second year of thePCCSP and will providemore detailed projection

Karen Kalayer Hiawalyer from Papua New Guinea and Netatua Pelesikoti from SPREP put the Climate Futures

tool to the test at the Climate and Ocean Projections Workshop Report 22-26 March 2010 – Cairns, Australia.

Progress3

29

3

Figure 5: Potential climate projection products identified at PCCSP Technical Workshop,Vanuatu, 12-16 October 2009.

Tailored Products

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Figure 6: Groups and sectors identified as users of climate projection products, PCCSP Technical Workshop, Vanuatu, 12-16 October 2009.

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30

information for thepartnercountries.TheadditionaldownscalingworkbeingdonebypartnerinstitutionsisonscheduleandwillbecompletedinthesecondyearofthePCCSP.Thestatisticaldownscalingworkisonscheduledespitesomechallengeswithpoordataqualityforsomecountries.

Workonclimateprojections for tropical cyclones isonscheduleandanew index fortropicalcyclonegenesisandintensificationbasedonlarge-scaleenvironmentalfactorshasbeendeveloped.

Awebinterfaceforcreatingclimatefuturesforall15countrieshasbeendevelopedandtested in four workshopswith partner country representatives (three PCCSP regionalworkshopsandonePACCworkshop).Positivefeedbackandsuggestionsforimprovementwerereceived.Thewebinterfaceisunderpinnedbydatafrom24GCMs,withvariablesincludingannual-averageandseasonal-averagechangesintemperature,rainfall,wind-speed,solarradiation,potentialevaporation,extremerainfall,extremewind-speedandrain-days.Furtherenhancementstothewebinterfaceandsupportingguidancematerialareunderway.

3.4 Component 4: Oceans and sea level rise


ChangesinsealevelandoceanprocessesareparticularlysignificantforislandnationsinthePacific region.This researchcomponent, inclosecollaborationwith theother threecomponents,isaimingtoimproveunderstandingofthesechanges.Specificallytheywillexaminetheregionaldistributionofsealevelchangesandtheeffectsofclimatevariabilityandclimatechangeonextremesealevelscausedbyextremeweatherevents.TheyarealsoinvestigatingtherelationshipbetweencomplexoceandynamicsinthewesternequatorialPacificandENSO;andoceanacidificationwhich isexpected tocauseadecline in thehealthandsustainabilityofreefecosystems.

Therearefourinter-relatedprojectsinthiscomponent:

•ENSOvariabilityandclimatechange;

•Effectofclimatevariabilityandclimatechangeonextremesealevelevents;

•Oceanacidification;and

•Sealevelprojections.

Progress3

31

3

Tropical cyclone occurrences for selected locations in the region have been analysedunderaverageconditionsandENSOextremesandhydrodynamicmodelsimulationsforextremesealeveleventsinselectedlocationsisunderway.

Historical dataoncarbonate chemistry forthe study region have been compiled andanalysed.Alongwithdatafrommooringandshipboardsamplingthesewillformthebasisfordeterminingthedriversofacidificationinthe region and for testing biogeochemicalmodels. Model simulations are underwayto assess current variability in carbonatechemistrywithvalidationagainsthistoricaldata.

Work is ongoing on the time series andmapsoftheregionaldistributionofsealevelriseforrecentdecades.Thisworkincludesanalysis of the regional distributionof sealevel rise from glacier contributions andfromoceanthermalexpansion.



ENSOvariabilityandclimatechange 40

Thisprojectisonschedule.InitialstaffshortageswereaddressedbydrawingoncapabilityfromtheUniversityofNewSouthWales.

Effectofclimatevariabilityandclimatechangeonextremesealevelevents

30

Thisprojecthassuffereddelaysduetorecruitmentdifficulties.Thishasnowbeenaddressedandallmilestonesarelikelytobemet.

Oceanacidification 50 Thisprojectiswellonschedule.

Sealevelprojections

25

Thisprojectwasdelayedduetorecruitmentdifficulties.Thescheduleforprojectoutputshasbeenrevisedandunderthenewplanmilestoneswillbemet.

Analysisofchangesintemperatureandsalinityoverthepast60yearsshowthesurfaceoceanbeneathrainfall-dominatedregionshasfreshened,whereasoceanregionsdominatedbyevaporationaresaltier.Furthermore, resultsconfirm that thesurfacewarmingof theworld’soceansoverthepast50yearshaspenetratedintotheoceans’interiorchangingdeep-oceansalinitypatterns.Analysisofmodeldriftforthe20thcenturyrunsoftheIPCCsimulations iswell-advanced and contributes to thework of the other components onmodelevaluation.

32

3.5 Component 5: Science information synthesis and communication


This component supports projectmanagement, international and national coordination,outreachactivitiesandworkshopstobeundertakenthroughthefourresearchcomponents.Inaddition,thecomponentisresponsibleforsynthesisingthescienceoutputsandmakingthemavailabletoplannersanddecisionmakersintheregionandmorebroadly.

Therearethreemainactivitiesinthiscomponent:

•Domesticcoordination;

•Internationalcoordination;and

•Informationsynthesis.



Domesticactivities40

Alldomesticcoordinatingactivitiesarewellinhandandprogressingsatisfactorily.Thisprojectisonschedule.

Internationalactivities40

Thisprojectisonschedule:effectiveengagementwithpartnercountriesandregionalorganisationsisprogressingverywell.

Scienceinformationsynthesis&communication

23 ThisprojectdependstoalargeextentonthecompletionofthePCCSPresearchcomponents,sowhilstshowingonly23%complete,itis,neverthelessonschedule.

Thiscomponent isonscheduleandprovidesthecoordinationandprojectmanagementto support the other components. A revised management structure for the ProjectManagement Team has been put in place and is functioning effectively. Progress andbudgetary oversight is provided by the PCCSPManagement Committee based on bi-monthlytrafficlightreporting,six-monthlyandannualreporting.Oneinternalmeetingfor

Progress3

33

allPCCSPresearcherswasheldinFebruary2010toshareresearchfindingsandconductagapsandneedsanalysisofclimatechangescienceintheregion.

Three PCCSP regional workshops have been coordinated and evaluations show theywere extremely successful in building the knowledge-base of climate science in thepartnercountries.Specificmodesofcommunicationwiththepartnercountrieshavebeenestablished and are proving effective. Several in-country visits havebeen important forinformationsharingwithpartnercountrystakeholdersandregionalorganisations.An InterimAgreementonDataSecurityArrangementshasbeenputinplaceandhasbeenendorsedbysixcountries.

Internal PCCSP monthly meetings areheld to plan the final technical reportandadetailedoutlinehasbeenpreparedandendorsedby thepartnercountries.All input to the first (zero-order) draftof the final technical report has beencompiled. A six-page brochure on thePCCSPwaspreparedandcirculatedatthePacificIslandsForuminAugust2010and planning has started for a secondmoresubstantivebrochure.WorkonthePCCSPwebsiteisadvancing.

3

PCCSP Internal Workshop, 22-24 February 2010.

Climate observational station in the Marshall Islands.

34

The PCCSP is on schedule andexpected to deliver all finalproductsontime.

Research work is progressingwith the full engagement of thepartner countries and regionalorganisations and already someinteresting results are emerging.Several scientific papers havebeenpreparedandpresentationsmadeatinternationalevents.

AstheProgramprogresses,therewillbeanincreasingtrendtowardsin-country activities which willallowfortheengagementofmanymorestakeholders in thepartnercountries.

The PCCSP presents a uniqueand challenging opportunity toprovide partner countries in thePacificregionwithasolidscientificfoundationonwhichtobasetheiradaptation responses. All thescientificandsupportstaffworkingon theProgramare dedicated tomeetingthischallenge.

4Concluding remarks

35

Annex 1 PCCSP Publications

Published papers

Kuleshov,Y.,R.Fawcett,L.Qi,B.Trewin,D.Jones,J.McBride,andH.Ramsay (2010),Trends in tropical cyclones in theSouth IndianOcean and theSouthPacificOcean, J.Geophys.Res.,115,D01101,doi:10.1029/2009JD012372

Durack, P.J., Wijffels, S. 2010. Fifty-year trends in global ocean salinities and theirrelationshiptobroad-scalewarming,AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,JournalofClimate,doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1/

Papers in preparation

Papers submitted to Journals

Brown,J.etal.EvaluationoftheSouthPacificConvergenceZoneinWCRPCMIP3climatemodelsimulationsofthe20thcentury,submittedtoJournalofClimate,June2010

Kokic, P. et al. Forecasting climate variables using a mixed-effect state-space model,submittedtoEnvironmetrics

Papers in draft stage

Chattopadhyay,M.,Abbs,D.Brown,J.andLavender,S.TropicalcycloneindicesandinrelationtotheSPCZincurrentandfutureclimates,tobesubmittedtoJournalofClimate

Irving,D.etal.GCMevaluationpaper,tobesubmittedtotheOpenAtmosphericScienceJournal

Katzfey,J.etal.CCAM60kmevaluationofpresentclimatefortheglobe,Journalyettobeselected

Kuchinke,M.,Tilbrook,B.,Lenton,A.ThecarbonatechemistryresponsetonaturaldriversinthePacificIslandregions,Journalyettobeselected

Annex 1

36

McInnes, K.,McBride, J.,Walsh, K. Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones andextremesealevelinthesouthPacific,Journalyettobeselected

Nguyen,K.etal.CCAM60kmevaluationofpresentclimateforthetropicalPacific,Journalyettobeselected

Nguyen,K.etal.CCAM60kmclimateprojectionsforthetropicalPacific,Journalyettobeselected

Perkins, S. et al. GCM atmospheric projections paper, to be submitted to the OpenAtmosphericScienceJournal

SenGupta,A.Climatedrift in theCMIP3coupledclimatemodels, tobesubmitted toJournalofClimateorClimateDynamics

Annex 1

37

Annex 2

Annex 2 Presentations on PCCSP and PCCSP Science at Meetings and Conferences

2009

20-24April2009,DiscussionofPCCSPatMeetingofTechnicalWorkingGroup/SPCProjectonAssessingtheVulnerabilityofFisheriesandAquaculturetoclimatechange,Noumea,NewCaledonia,SusanWijffels,Component4scientist

August2009,MeetingatUniversityofHawai’i,PresentationonPCCSP,byScottPowerComponent2scientist

August 2009,MeetingwithNIWAandNZAID,PresentationonPCCSPbyScottPower,Component2scientist

21-23October,2009,PacificClimateChangeRoundtable,RepublicoftheMarshallIslands.PresentationonPCCSP:AdvancingthescientificbasisforadaptationbyGillianCambers,ProgramManager

21-25 October, 2009, SOPAC Science and Technology and Resource Network (STAR),Vanuatu. Presentation on Ocean acidification in the South Pacific region by MarevaKuchinke,Component4ResearchScientist

20November,2009,DelegationfromPhilippinesNationalEconomicDevelopmentAuthorityvisitedBoM.PresentationonPCCSPbyGillianCambers,ProgramManager

23-24 November, 2009, Presentations on PCCSP to SOPAC, SPREP, USP in Fiji byElizabethBoulton,GillianCambers,JohnClarkeandKevinHennessy,representativesofComponents3and5

25-26 November, 2009, Presentations on PCCSP to SPREP and UNDP in Samoa byElizabethBoulton,GillianCambers,JohnClarkeandKevinHennessy,representativesofComponents3and5

25November2009,PresentationonPCCSPtoNationalEnvironmentConferenceinSamoa,KevinHennessy,Component3scientist

38

7December2009,GroupundertakingSPREPReviewofMeteorologicalServicesvisitedBoM.PresentationonPCCSPbyElizabethBoulton,InternationalLiaisonOfficer

8December,2009,Delegation fromChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationvisitedCSIRO.PresentationonPCCSPbyGillianCambers,ProgramManager

2010

27-29January2010,AustralianMeteorologicalandAtmosphericSociety(AMOS)NationalConference,Canberra,2010:

PaulDurack,Component4scientist:Fifty-yearchangesinthehydrologicalcycleexpressedinoceansalinity

AlexSenGupta,Component4scientist:ProjectedchangestothetropicalPacificOceanintheCMIP3models

12February,2010,BoMRegionalOfficeinDarwin,PresentationonPCCSP,RodHutchinsonandAurelMoise,Component1andComponent2scientists

13-14April2010,SeaLevelDataApplicationsWorkshop,BoM,PresentationonSealevelmonitoringandapplicationsbyGillianCambers,ProgramManager

13May2010,PacificAdaptationtoClimateChange(PACC)Workshop,Apia,Samoa,seriesofpresentationsonPCCSPworkonClimateandOceanProjections,bySarahPerkinsandJohnClarke,Component3scientists,andLesMuir,Component4scientist

24May2010,PacificIslandClimateChangePredictionProject,Melbourne,PresentationonKeyclimatedriversinthePacificregion,BradMurphy,Component2scientist

29June–1July2010,NationalClimateChangeAdaptationResearchFacilityConference:

DeanCollins,DavidJones,SimonMcGreeandJohnPhan,Component1scientists:AnewclimatechangemonitoringwebsitefortheSouthPacific

W.J.Wright,R.HutchinsonandA.Howard,Component1scientists,Data insupportofclimatechangeadaptationinthePacific.

Annex 2

For more information please contact:

DrGillianCambers–ProgramManagerPacificClimateChangeScienceProgram•Phone:+61392394400•Email:[email protected],AspendaleVIC3195Australia

For communications or media enquiries please contact:

JillRischbieth–CommunicationsOfficerPacificClimateChangeScienceProgram•Phone:+61392394400•Email:[email protected],AspendaleVIC3195Australia

130ºE 140ºE 150ºE Annual Report 1 2009 - 2010160ºE 170ºE … · 2017. 5. 13. · Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia Palau Papua New Guinea East Timor Solomon Islands

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