13 slides

The Economics of Climate Change

and the ties that (double) bind usBy Nick van der Leek

www.nickvanderleek.com

This text is a placeholder.• Here is the second level.

• You may change this text

• Here is the third level

• Formatting is controlled by the slide master

and the layout pages.

• There is a third level

• And even a fourth level

Add a subtitle here

An accent box,

click to edit the

text inside.

An accent box,

click to edit the

text inside.

Dori: Here, Mr. Gandalf? Can't you do

something about this deluge?

Gandalf: It is raining, master dwarf.

And it will continue to rain until the

rain is done! If you wish to change

the weather of the world, you should

find yourself another wizard.

Climate Change Denial Is Winning

Trends suggest regional interest in climate

change comes exclusively from the

developing world with 8 of the top 10

countries by search volume from Africa.

These areas have the least resources to do

anything about it.

In 2010, 3.2 million people

died prematurely from

outdoor air pollution, mainly in Asia

smoke from indoor cooking fires kills about 2

million people a year — more than malaria and

tuberculosis combined. – WHO

stoves also a major source of black carbon

(soot) which is a major global warming culprit

A Few Facts...

The largest and most valuable company in the world is....

Saudi Aramco, worth up to $10 trillion by FT

The single largest consumer of energy in the world is

US Department of Defence: spend $13 billion on fuel alone

automobiles are the largest net contributor to climate change ...- Nadine Unger,

NASA

2nd burning household biofuels— wood and animal dung for home heating and cooking

3rd raising methane-producing cattle, contribute the third most.

84 million autos produced in 2012 = 230 136 per day

America’s Department of Defences Joint Operating Environment

report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when

there is serious economic upheaval.

"One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number

of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their

nations by ruthless conquest.‖

According to The Stern Review climate change is

the ―greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.‖

In 2012 total global emissions set a new record.

400ppm CO2 level reached in May 2013

China increased their emissions by 300 million tons, more than offsetting lower emissions in the USA and Europe.

Japan’s carbon dioxide emissions increased 70-million tons after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011.

China’s emissions slowed to lowest level in a decade.

America’s switch from coal to gas power generation reduced emissions by 200-million tons = mid-1990s.

Emissions in Europe declined 50-million tons because of the economic slowdown, growth in renewables, and emissions caps on industrial and power

companies

Stats...now...

Stats going forward...

Drought is projected to cost Americans $1 trillion annually by 2100.

for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology avoided before 2020,

an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate

for the increased emissions. – IEA

$1?

$4?

2 myths

1. CO2 is plant food

2. Volcanoes produce more CO2

than we do

•Higher CO2 levels can increase

•yields.

•yields for wheat and soybeans

increase by 30% or more

•yields for corn smaller response

(less than 10% increase).

•Caveat: temperature + crop's

optimal level or - water and nutrients

•Extreme events like droughts

and floods prevent crops from

growing altogether.

•2008, the Mississippi River flooded

just before the harvest period

•estimated loss of $8 billion

•Many weeds, pests and fungi thrive

under warmer, wetter climates.

•US farmers spent over

$11 billion in 2009 to fight weeds

Mississippi River: the chief conduit for

American grain

corn production: shifted 150 miles northwest

since 1950

Higher temperatures = $$$ barge transport.

southern Africa > less 30% of maize crop by 2030.

South Asia > regional staples rice, millet and maize could drop

10%

Global Breadbaskets…more or less?

Soil Quality

1815

Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions

rose 1.4% to 31.6-billion tons If $1.5-trillion in low-carbon investments are avoided before

2020, $5-trillion in additional investments would be required

thereafter to get back on track. For reference, global GDP is

$70 trillion (7.14%). - IEA

Per capita every man, woman and child contributes 4.5 tons of

CO2 per year. Driving an average car = 10 tons of CO2 per year.

IT INDUSTRY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

2 searches on a typical desktop computer

= boiling a kettle

20 google queries = driving 1km in a

modern car

Google handles about 3-5 billion searches

daily.

The global IT industry generates 2% of

global CO2 = 2X world's airlines

Cars are #1 driver of manmade

climate change

Currently 1 billion cars

1.7 billion by 2035

Ergo – make cars more ‘efficient’

>>>fossil fuel to electric?

CARS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is difficult Analogous to an organism trying to lose weight but organism is also heavily addicted, highly distracted and over-stressed

Volcanoes versus Cars

Google: "your own personal computer will use more

energy than Google uses..."

Key insights

exorbitant cost of EV’s due to the battery

―range anxiety‖

Nissan Leaf sold 1000 units during the first quarter of 2013. for perspective, Ford’s F-Series pickups sell at a rate of over 2000 units per day

"For the next 10 years plug in hybrids have a better chance to become a relevant volume

in comparison to just fully electric cars.” - Jochem Heizmann, head of Volkswagen in China

6.3 million hybrid electric vehicles have been sold globally between 1997 and March 2013

Sold 1.2 million in 2012, sales doubled.

The IEA expects total subsidies for renewable energy to rise

from $90 billion now to $240 billion in 2030.

Renewables, according to this IEA projection, will account for a third of

total electricity output by 2035 –

subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $523 billion in 2011

30% increase on 2010 and 6X value for renewables

By 2050 New #1:

electric power generation overtakes

road transportation as the biggest

promoter of warming.

In 2100 New #3:

The industrial sector jumps from the

smallest contribution in 2020

Household gadgets on standby

account for 10% of

electricity use…

crisis = efficiencies + adaptation + innovation

+ complacency = crisis

―They think Sandy was a fluke, a storm

to end all storms, the kind they won't

ever see again.‖

―Collectively, humanity has yawned and

decided to let the dangers mount.‖ – Martin Wolf, May 14, 2013

Statistical projections... A 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated

with a 10% loss of farming productivity.

According to the FAO, global food production

must rise 70 percent by 2050 as the Earth’s

population reaches 9.1 billion.

How Realistic Are Our Motoring Prospects?

How long before we’re building

100 million cars a year, 1 billion

per decade?

estimated accumulation

= 10 billion Hiroshima atomic bomb detonations

average of +- 2 detonations per second since the 1870s

Half of that energy has accumulated in the oceans since

1970,

at an average rate of about 4 atomic bomb detonations per

second

accelerated global

warming.

2° Celsius = 44-billion tons of carbon

dioxide equivalent by 2020.

the world is on a path to average temperature rise of 3.6° Celsius - 5.3° Celsius. - IEA

Efficiencies can delay lock in by 5

years…necessary to ―buy time‖

2013…2014…2015…2016…2017…2020

Action is essential during this temporary window

"What is most troubling to me is that there appears to be a complacency setting in about transitioning to a more sustainable energy economy.

Shales should be used as a bridge. But we are hearing far too much euphoric talk about 100-200 years of natural gas.

Therefore no need to worry, it can be business as usual.This is highly problematic in my opinion. We must globally transition away

from hydrocarbons."

2015

Farmlands, Oceans and Food

June 2013……..According to

AccuWeather.com, Andrea

delivered the rainiest June 7 on

record for cities in North

Carolina to Massachusetts,

which experienced between 3

inches and slightly more than 6

inches of rain on Friday.

Two storms, Alberto and Beryl,

spun up this spring before the

official hurricane season start

date of June 1, an unusual

occurrence. ..

Beryl was the earliest 2nd-

named storm of any season

since record-keeping began

in 1950, according to

government records.

FOODCheap Carbohydrate crops (high fructose corn syrup)

= obese (unhealthy) populations

= Diabetes

Today 1 billion are overweight, 800 million malnourishedThe rate of obesity is increasing approximately 1% per annum worldwide

the economic cost of looking after the world’s diabetic population =

entire Australian health budget within 20 years

A 1 metre rise in sea levels will cause Hurricane Sandy type

inundations of New York City once every 3 years.

Rates of sea level rise are increasing three-to-four times faster

along portions of the U.S. Atlantic Coast than globally

Sea levels have risen 200mm (1/5th of a metre) since 1870

Currently increasing at

an average 3.2 mm p.a.

Japan’s capital, flanked by rivers to the east

and west, as well as running through it,

faces 33 trillion yen ($322 billion) in

damages should the banks break on the

Arakawa River that bisects Tokyo

= 5 X $60.2 billion aid package for Sandy

Overfishing, rising water temperatures and

ocean acidification create ideal environments

for jellyfish to thrive and multiply

They eat things higher up on the food

chain than themselves – things that are

bigger, faster and smarter than they are.

compete with whales - consume plankton

―biodiversity of the world's water will

eventually resemble that of the

Precambrian era, when oceans were ruled

by jellyfish and mammals and reptiles did

not exist.‖ – Lisa-Ann Gershwin

United Kingdom

The insurance industry is directly affected

by the risks of climate changes.

"Climate change is not a remote issue for

future generations to deal with; it is, in

various forms here already, impacting on

insurers' businesses now." - Association

of British Insurers

Weather related risks for households and

property were already increasing by 2–4%

per year due to the changing weather

conditions, and claims for storm and flood

damages in the UK had doubled to over £6

billion over the period from 1998–2003

compared to the previous five years.

United States

federal government's newly released

advisory flood maps ---14 feet on stilts at a

cost of $150,000 or face up to $30,000 a

year in flood insurance premiums.

a small cottage can cost $60,000 to

elevate, while a sprawling multilevel home

could run upwards of $250,000

Several months before Sandy hit, Congress

quietly passed the Biggert-Waters Flood

Insurance Reform Act, a bill that

authorized skyrocketing premium increases

for people in flood-prone communities.

It was a desperate attempt to keep the

program financially solvent after it was

nearly bankrupted by an onslaught of

claims from Hurricane Katrina, which

forced the federal government to

borrow about $17 billion from the

Treasury.

Bangladesh – population 161 million

In 1998 30 million made homeless by flooding

75% of Bangladesh is less than 10m above sea level

and 80% is flood plain

Floods submerged 17 million acres

(69,000 km2) of Pakistan's most fertile crop

land, killed 200,000 livestock and washed

away massive amounts of grain.

On 7 September 2010, the International

Labour Organization reported that the

floods had cost more than 5.3 million jobs

Forecasts estimated that the GDP growth

rate of 4% prior to the floods would turn to

−2% to −5% followed by several

additional years of below-trend growth. The loss of over 10 million head of

livestock along with the loss of other crops

would reduce agricultural production by

more than 15%.

Nationwide car sales were predicted to fall

as much as 25%. Milk supplies fell by 15%.

Mitigation, Impact on GDP

4 climate policies – do not harm economic

growth.

1. improve energy efficiency in buildings,

industry and transport;

2. Limit the construction and use of inefficient

power plants;

3. halve methane emissions; and

4. partially phase out fossil fuel subsidies.

Reality

Check

the largest dry-cooled coal fired power station in the world

The largest contract ever awarded by SA’s state utility Eskom

The most costly factor in terms of combating climate change –

our own complacency (and deniers)

We have to regain hearts and minds

Identify problems – offer solutions

“Messages about climate change and energy

that use fear- and threat-based tactics have

not mobilized responses. Let’s try a positive

tack instead. As the old sales saying goes: “Sell

the sizzle, not the steak.” - Chris Nelder, energy analyst, Marin

County, California

11 March 2011…the largest nuclear disaster since the Chernobyl disaster of

1986 and only the second disaster (along with Chernobyl) to measure Level 7 on

the International Nuclear Event Scale

Energy from nuclear is far more than fossil

fuels

Radiation pollution can be significantly

greater too

Given the stakes – worth the risk?

Nuclear in some ways like premarital sex –

the risks of failure are huge, but a sensible

approach can largely mitigate those risks, if

not eliminate them entirely, and if

successful very enjoyable results.

Is our species mature enough to undertake

such risk?

The truth is that no combination of alternative fuels or

systems for using them will allow us to continue

running America, or even a substantial fraction of it, the

way we have been. We are not going to run Wal-Mart,

Walt Disney World, Monsanto, and the Interstate

Highway System on any combination of solar or wind

energy… tar sands, oil shale, methane hydrates, nuclear

power, thermal depolymerisation, ―zero-point‖ energy,

or anything else you can name. We will desperately use

many of these things in many ways, but we are likely to

be disappointed in what they can actually do for us.

Try this...

Not this...

Geo-engineering

Volcanoes to the rescue“The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 gave us an opportunity to learn many things about using sulphur-based aerosols to cool the Earth. The aerosols it spewed into the stratosphere remained there for an average of 1-2 years before falling down through the troposphere.”

Stability is most efficient economic

model…

but the only constant is change

rewards for learning how to

manage things on a planetary

scale…

We’ve done it before…

Mastery of Our Planet >>>Mastery Of Mars and perhaps other planets

Thank you