#13: Ozone Depletion ESD.864 Noelle Selin Session 13
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#13: Ozone DepletionESD.864Noelle Selin
Session 13
Montreal Protocol Case Study
� In the environmental area, the canonical example of good science-policy interaction
� “Modeled after the Montreal Protocol” – lots of other processes have drawn lessons from it
� How can we understand and isolate what made science-policy work and how we can apply it?
Good Ozone, Bad Ozone
Source: Montreal Protocol 2010 Scientific Assessment
Figure Q1-2 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Antarctic Ozone Hole
The “Ozone Hole” was discovered in 1985 – well after negotiations for the Vienna Convention got under way!
Source: Montreal Protocol 2010 Scientific Assessment
Figure Q11-1 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Figure Q11-3 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Ozone Hole: Changes over time
Cause of Ozone Depletion
CFCs were present in aerosols, used in industrial processes Long-lived in the atmosphere (make it to the stratosphere) Converted to reactive Cl/Br – catalytic process that destroys ozone
Figure Q8-1 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp.,Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Ozone: Scientific History
Source: Montreal Protocol 2010 Scientific Assessment
Figure Q0-1 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessmentof Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp.,Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Figure Q0-1 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessmentof Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp.,
Ozone: Assessment History
Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Figure Q0-1 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessmentof Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp.,
Ozone: Protocol History
Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Assessment + Protocol history
Figure Q0-1 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessmentof Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp.,Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Montreal Protocol: Effects
Subsequent amendments “bend the curve” of stratospheric chlorine
Lessons drawn about dynamic policy, repeated assessment inputs
Figure Q15-1 from: WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. This image is in the public domain.
Technological Option Assessments (Parson)
� Collaboration between industry, policy actors (Users vs. producers)
� Linking public and private benefit � “Backwards” policy process –
regulatory targets first, then feasibility
� Least successful where individual interests at stake
Epistemic Community (Haas)
� Epistemic Community: group of like-minded scientists/technocrats that band together to influence policy
� Haas thinks they exerted a strong influence on the Montreal Protocol regime formation
� Some criticisms (of many) relate to the mechanisms by which these knowledge-brokers exerted power
How to explain Montreal Protocol science-policy success?
� Political factors � Science-politics: � Epistemic community? � Assessment process
� Lessons drawn: � Dynamic process � Periodic assessments � Create scientific community � Framework Convention + protocols
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ESD.864 Modeling and Assessment for PolicySpring 2011
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