Climate models: predictions and projections 12.340 Global Warming Science May 1, 2012 Dan Cziczo Reading: IPCC 2007 WG2 Ch 10,11 1
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Climate models: predictions and projections
12.340 Global Warming Science
May 1, 2012 Dan Cziczo
Reading: IPCC 2007 WG2 Ch 10,11
1
Today’s Class
• What are climate models? (recap) • Sub-grid / unresolved processes • AR4 Predictions • Global vs. Regional Effects
2
Today’s Class
• What are climate models? (recap) • Sub-grid / unresolved processes • AR4 Predictions • Global vs. Regional Effects
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4
5
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This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see the similarImage on page http://www.ucar.edu/communications/millennium/fig9.gif.
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This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please seethe image on page http://atoc.colorado.edu/~dcn/ATOC7500/.
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 1.2. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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Today’s Class
• What are climate models? (recap) • Sub-grid / unresolved processes • AR4 Predictions • Global vs. Regional Effects
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There’s Always a ‘But’…
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Representing aerosol size distributions in models
Bin
Section
Modal/Moment
Monodisperse
Image courtesy of Chien Wang. Used with permission.12
Representing aerosol composition in models
Image courtesy of Chien Wang. Used with permission.
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0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
Observed nIN,T (L-1)
Pred
icte
d n I
N,T
(L-
1 )
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Aerosol and Indian Summer Monsoon
JJAS Indian Rainfall Relative to 1930-1960 Average
Wrong with only GHG considered. Wrong if only sulfate considered. “Right” with correct size and composition.
Courtesy of National Academy of Sciences, U. S. A. Used with permission.Source: Figure 5A in http://www.pnas.org/content/102/15/5326.full.pdf.Copyright © 2005 National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A.
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Today’s Class
• What are climate models? (recap) • Sub-grid / unresolved processes • AR4 Predictions • Global vs. Regional Effects
16
Following from AR4 WG2 Ch 10
Test 1, 2 (Sensitivity, Postcast)
Forecast 1, 2 (Scenarios)
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.1. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 17
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Table 10.2 and 10.3. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 18
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contributionto the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, Figure 9.5. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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AR4 Scenarios
A1 “Family” – Rapid on average since 1850 through 2100. Shift of countries toward “developed”. Various commitments to new technology – none, in some areas, in whole world. Assumes abundant resources. A1B is commonly used intermediate. A2 – Slowdown of global economy and consolidation. B1 – Global commitment to environment and sustainable resources. B2 – Similar to B1 but with more regionalism.
1750: ~280
2011: ~390
20IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC), Figure 1 from http://www.ipcc-data.org/ddc_co2.html. Used with permission.
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.5. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.4 and Table 10.5. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.29. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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We’re talking this….
…not this
From National Geographic, 20th Century Fox
This image has been removed due to copyrightrestrictions. Please see all the images on pagehttp://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/12/venice_under_water.html.
This image has been removed due to copyrightrestrictions. Please see the image on page
This image has been removed due to copyrightrestrictions. Please see the image on pagehttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/06/090629-mississippi-river-sea-levels/.
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.31. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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http://i.stack.imgur.com/cchfV.jpg.
Today’s Class
• What are climate models? (recap) • Sub-grid / unresolved processes • AR4 Predictions • Global vs. Regional Effects
25
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.9. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.18 and 10.19. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Box 11.1, Figure 1 and 2. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 11.11 and 11.12. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission.
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How Are We Doing?
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Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, et. al. The University of New SouthWales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp. Courtesy of The Copenhagen Diagnosis. Used with permission.
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Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, et. al. The University of New SouthWales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp. Courtesy of The Copenhagen Diagnosis. Used with permission.
lab/numerical EXPERIMENT
OBSERVATION
THEORY
Foundation
Data & Phenomena
The Triangle
Courtesy of Chien Wang. Used with permission. 32
MIT OpenCourseWarehttp://ocw.mit.edu
12.340 Global Warming ScienceSpring 2012 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
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