12 e-Learning Predictions for 2014

12 E-LEARNING PREDICTIONS FOR 2014

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1. Big Focus on User Engagement

2. From MOOCs to SOOCs

3. Widespread Adoption of BYODStrategies

4. The Rise ofData and Analytics

5. Mobile Casual and Informal Learning Apps

6. Peer-to-Peer Learning Platforms

7. Increased Use of Video and Immersive Learning Environments

8. Emergence of Learning Record stores

9. Increased Focus on Rewards, Certifi cation and Accreditation

10. Large Media Corporations Actively Investing in e-Learning

11. Continued Growth in Online-Enabled Private Tuition

12. Growing Use of Technology Platforms for Vocational Training

Benjamin Vedrenne-Cloquet: CEO of Edxus Group and

Co-Founder of EdTech Europe

Charles McIntyre: CEO of IBIS Capital and

Co-Founder of EdTech Europe

Mark Jeynes: Partner at

OC&C Strategy Consultants

The European EdTech sector has moved from a stage of experimentation to a stage of adoption. e-Learning is now a commercial reality in Europe. 2014 will see an increased level of investment and consolidation in the sector.

“ Over the last few years, we have seen the initial signs of disruption from e-Learning. We believe 2014 is the beginning of the next phase that will see a tipping point of acceptance combined with a growing investor interest to create a market that will be comparable to other sectors in the technology space.

“

We expect to see further exciting developments in the European e-Learning market in 2014. The combination of continuing advancements in technology, together with growing adoption of digital content, tools and applications, will create opportunities for both operators and investors.

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As content has started to proliferate across a range of academic and vocational genres, we have seen concerning data emerging on fall-out rates and limited course completion.

For example in 2013, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania reported that the online classes it offered had failed miserably. Only about half of the students who registered ever viewed a lecture and only 4% completed a course. 1 Also in 2013, Times Higher Education published an article, based on a study of 29 MOOC courses, which highlighted completion rates were below 7%.

The highest rate of completion was Functional Programming Principles in Scala from Switzerland’s Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, offered on Coursera, with 19.2% of the 50,000 students who enrolled completing the course. Also, 5 of the Top 6 most-completed MOOCs relied on automatic marking alone, meaning that no peer assessment was required. Courses that relied purely on peer grading generally fared far worse in terms of the percentage of students reaching the end.

Although there is some debate as to whether we should expect high attrition rates in e-Learning as people are quick to engage with an exciting and cheap new resource but slow to complete, this should not avoid the

issue of assessing whether the content is fi t for purpose in a digital environment.

2014 will see the emergence of tools, interactive content and rewards designed to improve completion rates.

From MOOCs to bespoke vocational training, the emphasis will be on how to make more effective use of this digital learning environment.

1. Big Focus on User Engagement

12 e-Learning Predictions For 2014

We see 2014 as an important year of change for European e-Learning. We expect a signifi cant increase in the level of investor activity around both the educational and training markets. To date the level of investment as a proportion of the size of the overall e-Learning market has lagged other industry sectors. As access to capital improves from both fi nancial and strategic investors, we will see European EdTech fi rms beginning to build scale both in their domestic markets but also internationally. 7%

A STUDY OF29 MOOC

COURSES FOUND

19.2%The percentage of MOOC courses that were completed in 2013 based on a study of 29 by Times Higher Education

HIGHESTRATE OF

1 Source: MIT Technology Review 18 Dec 2013

of 50,000 studentscompleted course

on FunctionalProgramming

Principles

COMPLETIONRATES BELOW

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2. From MOOCsto SOOCs

3. Widespread Adoption of BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) Strategies

24%

MOOCs have opened the education market right up. They have caught the public’s imagination and disrupted a market that had been long under innovated.

However, the business models to create profi table or even just self-sustaining organisations have been challenging.

There have been moves to use advertising or charging for completion certifi cates, but no established model has yet to emerge.

In 2014 we will see a move to “Selective” online courses or SOOCS. Selection will arise through pre-quali� cation requirements or through membership to a vocational organisation.

The selection criteria will provide better learner engagement with the course and a more identifi able need from the user which in turn will allow the course provider to charge more easily for the value added provided.

Smart phone and tablet penetration has grown strongly in Europe. Currently, in the top fi ve European Markets (EU5), smart phone penetration has reached approximately 45%. If we look at the younger age groups then we fi nd the penetration levels dramatically higher with the level rising to over 81% in the 18-24 age group. 2

Meanwhile, in the UK, according to the British Educational Suppliers Association (BESA), by the end of 2013, more than 10% of teaching computers in schools were tablets (up from 6% in 2012). By the end of 2015, it is expected to rise to 24%. BYOD has been a key factor driving the adoption of tablets.

With the ready availability of devices both within the K-12 market and adult markets, we will see digital publishers focus on providing mobile content that can address the e-Learning mantra of “anywhere, anytime”.

In 2014 we will see an increased supply of interactive content that is both device agnostic and “lite” so that the streaming, download and storage experiences are maximised on mobile devices.

10%

2013 2015

Tablet devices asteaching computersare on the increase

in UK schools

2 Source: Our Mobile Planet (Google) data for 2013

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4. The Rise of Data and Analytics

5. Mobile Casual and Informal Learning Apps

2013 saw the fashionistas fall in love with Big Data. Everywhere you turned you couldn’t escape Big Data being spouted as the next big thing in pretty much every facet of our lives. Well education and training is no exception. However, for data to be useful we need to reach a tipping point of collected and collated data that can be fed back into the system to be of functional use.

At present the data being collected around the learning process is not suffi ciently widespread or meaningful, except for on a very personal basis. In the UK, only a small number of providers, including SAM Learning, Espresso Education and Renaissance Learning, have started to publish data from studies that demonstrate that personalised learning can enhance academic outcomes.

Big Data in education is an enabler of adaptive personalised learning.

2014 will see the arrival of the data analysers who will have suf� cient data to drive adaptive learning programmes, provide meaningful performance measurement statistics and guide e-Learning educational and training policy.

For example, an independent report commissioned by SAM learning and conducted by the Fischer Trust into the relationship between e-Learning and GCSE results of 258,599 students between 2009 and 2011, concluded that there is a positive relationship between the use of SAM Learning and students’ progress. On average, students using SAM Learning for 10+ task hours achieved 12.3 capped points more than expected.

The pervasive use of mobile technology in our day-to-day lives provides ready access to an “always on” learning device. In the top 5 European markets (EU5) an individual’s smart phone usage has increased on average by over 30% in the last six months. 3

According to Google, the typical smart phone owner checks their device 150 times a day!

Where learning is embedded in daily tasks, we have an ideal environment for informal and habitual learning.

For example we have seen casual learning linked simply to the access code of your smart phone; every time you access your phone you learn something new.

For 2014 we see a signi� cant increase in the availability and use of casual and informal learning apps both in education but also in the workplace.

This trend is expected to accelerate further, with 40% of all ICT-based learning on educational apps by 2020, up from 28.5% in 2012.

150The typical smart

phone owner checks their device

times a day

40%28.5%

2012 2020

ICT-based learning on educational

apps expected to accelerate further

3 Source: Our Mobile Planet (Google) data for 2013

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6. Peer-to-Peer Learning Platforms

7. Increased Use of Video and Immersive Learning Environments

The initial disruption of e-Learning was its ability to deliver one-to-many on a completely new cost base. Stage 2 disruption is to harness the collective power of the users and create “many-to-many” or peer-to-peer learning.

Peer-to-peer can address many issues such as content curation, problem solving, reviewing and assessing course work.

2014 will see “Social” play a big part in e-Learning development.

Platforms will adapt to provide users the ability to learn from each other within an organised structure.

A good example of this trend is the University of Liverpool with its virtual degree programmes, offered in associate with Laureate, the US for-profi t operator of private universities. Small classes of MBA students interact entirely online during the course of their studies, with a network of 70+ professors around the world available 24/7 to contribute to live debates on the MBA forum online.

Over 6 billion hours of video are currently being watched each month on YouTube; that’s almost an hour for every person on Earth, and 50% more than last year. 4 Video already plays a big part in the learning process and is an obvious part of the success of the MOOCs.

Video learning formats have been shown to accelerate the learning process and are an attractive format to the user. With the advances in software and 3D animation engines, the link between video and immersive environments is close, as can be seen in the video games market.

In 2014, we expect strong growth in video within e-Learning as publishers seek to transition online. We also expect a range of exciting new immersive learning platforms that will bring skills that have developed from the gaming world.

4 Source: YouTube website

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8. Emergence of Learning Record Stores

9. Greater Focus on Rewards, Certifi cation and Accreditation

The skill requirements in labour markets are becoming more complex and are changing rapidly. The result is that learning has increasingly become an on-going requirement, we continually need to update our skills whether this is simply to respond to the advances in day-to-day software programmes or to learn new types of workplace or personal skills. Learning is now a lifelong requirement, not something we can leave behind at schools and colleges. With lifelong learning comes a need to record an individual’s experiences and progress and so the need for Learning Record Stores.

2014 will see a range of initiatives to address the need to quantify, track and share individual’s experiences in both informal and formal learning.

One of the challenges that has faced e-Learning has been its limited ability to reward course completion in an effective and useful way to the consumer.

The reward for course completion needs to be in a format suitable for the course and material covered, so that a course for basket weaving can effectively reward a hobbyist, or for the professional weaver, provide an accredited certifi cate that can be used in the workplace.

For e-Learning to address the needs of its audience fully, it must provide better access to recognisable and verifi able certifi cation.

We expect in 2014 the emergence of independent e-Learning course assessors and an increased role from existing accreditation bodies as they address the needs of the e-Learning marketplace.

The digital transformation that has occurred more generally in the media sector has provided a roadmap for some of the key issues that are being tackled by the traditional providers and publishers within the education market: diversifi cation of delivery platforms, proliferation of content, need for digital interactivity and minimal costs of distribution, to name a few.

The experience of large media corporates in this digital transition means that they will look on the education market as a sector in which they already have some very relevant skills.

By comparison, the share of digital in the global media industry is 30%, while the share of digital in education is only 2% of the total education industry.

We expect a big uptick in 2014 in the level of investment into e-Learning in Europe from a range of large domestic and international media companies.

For example, Discovery Communications has recently acquired Espresso Education, a leading provider of e-Learning content to primary and secondary schools in the UK and Sweden.

10. Large Media Corporates Actively Investing in e-Learning

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11. Continued Growth in Online-Enabled Private Tuition

We expect to see continued growth in private tuition delivered fully or partially online.

In markets like the UK, ongoing concerns about the quality of the education delivered in state-funded schools (as evidenced by the recent PISA rankings), has resulted in an increased demand for private tuition delivered outside school hours.

Traditionally, the private tuition market has taken the form of one-to-one tuition delivered in person and often in students’ homes.

New delivery models that transcend individual provision by offering standardised or technology-enabled tuition have allowed a step-change in provider growth, including the emergence of international learning centre chains, such as Kumon and Kip McGrath (and Explore Learning and TES Brightspark in the UK). Elsewhere, Tutor Vista has created a convenient, affordable service for children, providing unlimited (24/7) tutoring online, using tutors versed in Western education, but based in India.

The advent of new delivery models is making the private tuition market accessible to new customer groups. The traditional one-to-one model for private tuition excluded many potential users due to high price points. The new models of centre-based private tuition, school-based private tuition and online-based private tuition are making private tuition affordable and accessible to new customer groups thus growing the market.

For 2014, we see an increasing shift towards online-based private tuition, sometimes by integrating it directly into schools.

Although relatively impersonal, this model is favourable from a cost perspective, for families and is growing rapidly.

12. Growing Adoption of Technology as a Delivery Mechanism in the Government Funded Vocational Skills Training Market

A key driver here is ongoing pressure on funding and the desire of governments to deliver vocational skills training (e.g. adult-based learning, apprenticeships) at a lower cost per learner.

Government reform stimulates demand for

vocational e-Learning courses.

For example, in the UK, the government has invested in Learn Direct, a technology platform to deliver lower cost adult-based training.

In France, the ongoing reform of vocational training could be an accelerator. The reforms include the creation of a “Compte Personnel de Formation”, a personal account where people can store training credits, gained over time (up to a maximum of 150 hours). Whilst this kind of online account previously existed, the real novelty is that people will now be able to use these credits even when unemployed, without the validation of their employer and during working hours (if the employer agrees). We anticipate that this new mechanism will stimulate demand for e-Learning courses.

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