1197-7299-1-PB

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http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/1197-7299-1-pb 1/34

7/21/2019 1197-7299-1-PB


J%*rn+l % In"* tri+l En&ineerin& +n" M+n+&e ent – htt :!!"#$"%i$%r&!10$3926!'ie $119

'riginalit%#value" he originality of the present research stems from how individuals are

profiled, and the model and simulation that is built to understand how they solve complex

problems. he development of the agent!based model adds value to the existing body of

knowledge within both social sciences, and modeling and simulation.

(e%words" modeling, simulation, agent!based, problem!solving, personality, complex problems

1. Introduction

.&ent-/+ e" M%"elin& (./M) h+ een e#ten i el * e" %*t i"e % the % %n + li +ti%n

en ir%n ent (en&ineerin&, % *ter ien e +n" % er+ti%n re e+r h, + %n& %ther )$ he e

%ther +re+ in l*"e le+"er hi ( i&li%tt+, Mi&lin% P+ri i, 200 ), "e i i%n- +7in& ( il %n,

200 S*n N+ eh, 2004), te+ %r7 (O er +lle ;e li&hen, 2006), % i%l%& (S+ll+ h

M+ +l, 2001 il ert . %t, 2005 %"", /ill+ri Si +%, 2005) +n" %&niti%n +n" e %ti%n

(/+n"*r+, 2001 r+t h M+r ell+, 2005)$

In rel+ti%n t% er %n+lit , %&niti%n +n" h%l%& , there h+ e een +ri%* t*"ie th+t * e"

%"elin& +n" i *l+ti%n t% &+in in i&ht +n" *n"er t+n"in& %n e i i i *e th+t +re % ere"

the e %"ie % 7n% le"&e$ E&&e , < hir +&+r +n" M%&nen+t- h+l +nn (2003) %n"* te" +

t*" here er %n+lit +n" e %ti%n % in"i i"*+l + i *l+te"$ <i7* hi +n" N+7+ %ri

(200 ) * e" the /i& =i e he%r % Per %n+lit P h%l%& + t%r + r*le %r + &eneti

+l&%rith $ In the t*" %n"* te" h+ e -.&h+ee +n" Oren (200 ), the +&ent th+t +re

ein& * e" h+ e ert+in er %n+lit tr+it , + e" %n /i& =i e Per %n+lit he%r $

M+rtine>-Mir+n"+ +n" .l"e+ (2005) h+ e t+te" th+t the * e % M*lti-.&ent S te i

ene i i+l, n%t %nl e +* e % the +*t%n% %* r% ertie the +&ent h+ e, *t e +* e

+""iti%n+l h+r+ teri ti +n" +&ent +n t+7e, * h + %%r"in+ti%n +n" % *ni +ti%n$

;en"ri 7 %n +n" M <el e (in Sil er +n, /h+r+th N e, 200 ) t+te th+t there i + nee" %r

the the%rie % % i+l ien e t% e % *t+ti%n+ll %r *li>e" + +&ent %"el , in %r"er t%

h% th+t the +re +n+l ti +ll +"e?*+te$

he Phil% % hi +l Pr% ile % the In"i i"*+l (PPI), i$e$ the er %n+lit r% ile th+t i ein&

%"ele" +n" i *l+te" here, h+ een "e el% e" in /%>7*rt, P+"ill+ +n" S%* +-P%>+ (200 )$

he "et+ile" re i e th+t +re * e" + the %*n"+ti%n % the r% ile +n e %*n" in th+t t*" $

Onl + rie % er ie ill e re ente" here t% +7e the re+"er + ili+r ith the %n e t

th+t ill e "i * e" thr%*&h%*t thi + er$ he % * % thi *rrent + er i %n "e el% in&

+n +&ent- + e" %"el +n" i *l+tin& it * in& Net@%&% ("e el% e" Ari ilen 7 in 1999),

+n" +n+l >in& the re *lt $

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2. The Philosophical Profile of an Individual

he Phil% % hi +l Pr% ile % the In"i i"*+l i + %"el hi h t+te th+t three *n"erl in&

hil% % hie , n+ el E i te %l%& , Ont%l%& +n" ele%l%& , +re re ent ithin +n in"i i"*+l +

e e""e" +l*e th+t &*i"e h% the in"i i"*+l + r%+ he re+lit , h%% e t% + ?*ire

7n% le"&e, +n" "e+l ith the *t*re$ he %n tr* t % the PPI +re * e *l hen in"i i"*+l

ten" t% %l e % le# r% le $ he PPI i *ilt +n" re re ente" * in& + three "i en i%n+l

&r+ hi , h% n el% in =i&*re 1 +n" =i&*re 2$ . three-"i en i%n+l re re ent+ti%n i * e" t%

etter +""re the hil% % hi +l r% ile $ Ei&ht r% ile +re % t+ine" %*t % the % in+ti%n %

the +r+"i& &%in& thr%*&h the %ll% in& te :

1$ E t+ li h the +in +te&%rie %r the +#i

• #-+#i : Ont%l%&

• -+#i : E i te %l%&

• >-+#i : ele%l%&

2$ E t+ li h %rth%&%n+l % %nent %r e+ h +te&%r

• Ont%l%& : S* t+nti e-Pr% e

• E i te %l%& : E iri i -B+ti%n+li

• ele%l%& : %+l Oriente"-N% %+l Oriente"

3$ C%n tr* t +ll % i le % in+ti%n * in& +ll three +te&%rie

=r% the + % e et-* , + t%t+l % ei&ht r% ile +re % t+ine"$ De en"in& %n the "i en i%n, the

h+r+ teri ti +n" + + ilitie % the PPI ill h+n&e$

=i&*re 1$ he PPI tr* t*re 1 =i&*re 2$ he PPI Str* t*re 2

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E+ h % the three "i en i%n i re ent ithin +n in"i i"*+l, in e the "i en i%n % lete

e+ h %ther in +n in e +r+ le +$ .n in"i i"*+l, +t +n %int in ti e, ill h+ e + re re ent+ti%n

+n" "e initi%n % re+lit , %r the thin& +r%*n" hi el %r her el the in"i i"*+l ill h+ e % e

e+n % + ?*irin& in %r +ti%n +n" 7n% le"&e + %*t the %rl" *rr%*n"in& hi el %r her el

+n" the in"i i"*+l ill + t %r eh+ e in + ert+in + %r "i erent *r % e $

Empiricist-Substantive-Goal (ESG) profile represents PPI1: he in"i i"*+l h% it thi r% ile

nee" t% % er e + t , +7e * e % en e "+t+ +n" h+r", t+n&i le %n tr* t in %r"er t%

+ ?*ire 7n% le"&e + %*t + ert+in r% le $ En&ineer +re + &%%" e#+ le %r thi t e %

r% ile$ he hi&hl % er +nt n+t*re % en&ineerin& i er ittin& here, +l%n& ith the

re"* ti%ni t, re"i t+ le +n" &%+l-%riente" + r%+ he $

Empiricist-Process-Goal (EPG) profile represents PPI2: In the e %n" r% ile, the

e i te %l%&i +l ten"en % the in"i i"*+l i +&+in e iri i , here 7n% le"&e i + ?*ire"

thr%*&h % er +ti%n, "+t+ +n" + t $ he %nt%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n i r% + r% e

hil% % h er e ti e, here the re+lit i een + + %ntin** , e+nin& th+t the in"i i"*+l

ill h+ e + ten"en t% %n i"er thin& + + h%le$ he *t*re i een + re"i t+ le +n" the

in"i i"*+l i &%+l-%riente"$

Rationalist-Substantive-Goal (RSG) profile represents PPI3: .n in"i i"*+l ith thi t e %

r% ile ee7 7n% le"&e * in& re+ %nin& +n" "e"* ti%n, hi h i re re ent+ti e % + r+ti%n+li t

e i te %l%&i +l re"i % iti%n$ M+the +ti i+n %*l" e + &%%" e#+ le %r thi , in e +

*rel the%reti +l + r%+ h t% re+lit +n" 7n% le"&e i "% in+nt in thi r% ile, e e i+ll in

ter % e i te %l%&i +l +r&* ent $

Rationalist-Process-Goal (RPG) profile represents PPI4: he %*rth r% ile "e ri e +n

in"i i"*+l h% h+ + ten"en t% +r" ee7in& +n" &+inin& 7n% le"&e r% + r+ti%n+li t

er e ti e$ M+n+&er , %r in t+n e, + e + &%%" e#+ le %r thi t e % r% ile$ he

+n+&er % ten nee" t% %r7 ith "e+"line there %re 7ee in& * ith ert+in &%+l %*l" e

+n + r% ri+te h%i e %r the $ .l %, the % ten + nee" t% +7e "e i i%n hen e iri +l

"+t+ i l+ 7in& there %re + r+ti%n+li t re"i % iti%n %*l" e een in +n+&er +n" le+"er ,

in e the %*l" %ll% ert+in re+ %nin& r% e e t% re+ h "e i i%n $

Empiricist-Substantive- oGoal (ES ) profile represents PPI!: hi i th r% ile re ent +n

in"i i"*+l h% h+ +n e iri i t ten"en r% +n e i te %l%&i +l t+n e, e+nin& th+t

reli+n e * %n % er + le + t l+ +n i %rt+nt r%le %r thi in"i i"*+l$ One nee" t% h+ e +

ert+in h%li ti + r%+ h in %r"er t% etter "e+l ith *n7n% n t+te $

Empiricist-Process- oGoal (EP ) profile represents PPI": In the i#th r% ile, the in"i i"*+l i

+n e iri i t h% ten" t% rel %n en e "+t+, % er +ti%n , e+ *re ent , et $ =r% +n%nt%l%&i +l er e ti e, the in"i i"*+l ee re+lit + + r% e , + + h%le$ S% e le el %

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Complex Problem Related Premises:

• . % le# r% le i "e ine" the %ll% in& r% ertie

– In %r +ti%n + +il+ le

– . i&*it– i e-Sen iti it

– St+ ilit

– N* er % entitie

• . %r"in& t% the "i erent r% ertie , the r% le r+n&e r% i le t% % le#

(D+ i , 1969)$

• In"i i"*+l ith "i erent r% ile "e+l ith r% le "i erentl (M* %r", 1998)$

• Information available in a problem (D*n +n, 19 2 /+r-H+ , 1993 ;%%", @%& "%n

h% %n, 1993): hi re re ent +n in %r +ti%n + %*t the r% le th+t i *rrentl

+n" %tenti+ll + +il+ le t% the r% le %l er$ hi + e + +il+ le re %*r e ,

+ +il+ le h+r" "+t+, hi t%ri +l "+t+, et $ In % le# r% le , % e in %r +ti%n ( *t

n%t en%*&h) i r% i"e" t% %l e the r% le there %re + +il+ le in %r +ti%n i l% ,

here+ in i le r% le , the + +il+ le in %r +ti%n i hi&h$

• umber of entities in a problem (@l% ", 19 8 Stein er&, 1983 /+r-H+ , 1993 =l%%"

C+r %n, 1993): N* er % entitie i the n* er % % %nent th+t % e t%&ether t%

%r *l+te the r% le $ A *+ll , thi e+n th+t the %re % %nent + r% le h+

the %re % le# it &et $ here %re, in % le# r% le , the n* er % entitie i

hi&h, here+ in i le r% le the n* er % entitie i l% $

• %mbi&uit' in a problem (@+ ren e @%r h, 196 Bittel e er, 19 3 @l% ", 19 8

=*n7e, 1991): .n + i&*%* r% le in %l e *n ert+intie $ In te+" % h+ in& + le+rl

"e ine" r% le , there +re &r+ +n" l+ 7 +re+ ithin the %*n"+rie % + r% le $ In

% e + e , the + i&*it + e en *r + e "*e t% the +&*ene % the %*n"+rie $

he le + i&*%* the r% le i + %re le+r "e initi%n e#i t $ hi + initi+ll

ee rel+te" t% + +il+ le in %r +ti%n$ =%r in t+n e, +n + r% le till e + i&*%*

e en th%*&h there i + l%t % in %r +ti%n + +il+ le + %*t the r% le He $ he

in"i i"*+l + h+ e!%r + ?*ire in %r +ti%n + %*t + r% le , *t + n%t 7n% h% t%

* e it, h% %r here t% + l it$ .l %, hen + r% le i " n+ i , the in %r +ti%n +n

in"i i"*+l h+ + n%t e * e *l + ter + hile, + ter the r% le h+ h+n&e" t+te $

• Stabilit' in a problem (S inth, 19 1 @l% ", 19 8 =*n7e, 1991 G*e +"+ et +l, 2005):

St+ ilit "e+l ith the initi+l +n" in+l t+te % the r% le $ . r% le + e

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%n i"ere" t% e t+ le i the %n"iti%n % + r% le "% n%t h+n&e$ C% le# r% le

h+ e + ten"en t% e %l e r% %ne t+te t% +n%ther$ .t +n ti e t, the

h+r+ teri ti % the r% le + h+ e h+n&e"$ he "e ire" en"- t+te &et

%ntin*%* l re"e ine", hi h e+n th+t the r% le i " n+ i $ . hi&h le el %

t+ ilit in"i +te th+t the r% le i i le$

• ime-Sensitivit' in a problem (@+ ren e @%r h, 196 =*n7e, 1991 .*&ier et +l,

2001 G*e +"+ et +l, 2005): he te %r+l % %nent % the r% le i % * e" %n

hether the %l*ti%n % the r% le i +tt+ he" t% +n "e+"line , ti e re tri ti%n %r

li it+ti%n $ =%r ert+in t e % r% le , ti e + e the % t i %rt+nt % %nent$

=%r %ther r% le , e en th%*&h in"in& + %l*ti%n i the *lti +te &%+l, the + in

hi h %l*ti%n +re %*n", %ther e er&in& + e t % the r% le hile thi r% e i

in e e t, + +l % e i&ni i +nt i r% e ent $ hi +r&* ent +n +l % e * %rte"

hether the r% le h+ + l%n&-ti e h%ri>%n ( hi h in thi + e the 7e %n ern%*l" e e e ti ene ) %r + h%rt-ti e h%ri>%n ( hi h %*l" +7e the 7e %n ern

e i ien )$ hi +ri+ le +l % e % e i %rt+nt hen +ll the %ther + t%r +re *t in,

%r in t+n e, hen tr in& t% %lle t +ll % i le "+t+ + %*t + r% le + hel ith

+ *r+te r% le "e initi%n, i the r% le h+ ti e %n tr+int , thi + n%t e

"e ir+ le$

3. Anal !in" Theor throu"h #imulation

.&ent- + e" %"elin& +n" i *l+ti%n h+ it % n the%reti +l %*n"+ti%n , %rl" ie +n"

hil% % hie *ilt thr%*&h it %nne ti%n t% %ther iel" * h + % le#it ien e, te

ien e, te " n+ i , tr+"iti%n+l %"elin& +n" i *l+ti%n, +n" the % i+l ien e (M+ +l

N%rth, 2005)$ E tein (1999: +&e 56) "e ri e ./M + + K % er *l t%%l in the +n+l i %

spatiall' istribute s'stems of *etero&eneous autonomous actors +it* boun e information

an computin& capacit' Lit+li %ri&in+l $ M% t % i+l +n" h%l%&i +l hen% en+ % *r n%t

+ the re *lt % i %l+te" "e i i%n in"i i"*+l *t r+ther + the re *lt % re e+te"

inter+ ti%n et een *lti le in"i i"*+l % er ti e (S ith C%nre , 200 )$ here %re, it i

i %rt+nt t% h%% e + e i i eth%" th+t ill en+ le the re e+r her t% % er e the e

re etiti e inter+ ti%n +n" the +ttern th+t e er&e + + re *lt % the e inter+ ti%n $

S ith +n" C%nre (200 ) r% % e th+t ./M i +n +ltern+ti e + r%+ h t% the%r *il"in& in

%r"er t% *n"er t+n" " n+ i +n" inter+ ti e r% e e $ KOne h+ll +r7 % ./M i th+t it

t i +ll + * e th+t the % er+ll te % le#it e er&e r% the inter+ ti%n % +n

er i le % %nent , r+ther th+n r% &re+t % le#it in the eh+ i%r % in"i i"*+l

+&ent (<+* +n, 1995 in S ith +n" C%nre )$ .&ent- + e" %"el +re " n+ i , e# re i e

+n" + %r" i e"i+te ee" + 7 (. r+h+ %n ilen 7 , 2005)$ ./M % h* +n eh+ i%r i +

&r% in& re e+r h r+ ti e th+t h+ he" li&ht %n % le# " n+ i hen% en+ (e$&$,

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<+* +n, 1995 ;%ll+n", 1995)$ .&ent- + e" %"el +re +rti *l+rl * e *l %r *n"er t+n"in&

comple, p*enomena (. r+h+ %n ilen 7 , 2005)$ .&ent-/+ e" %"el ill e %n tr* te"

in the %ll% in& +rt$

E tein (1999) hi&hli&ht % e % the h+r+ teri ti th+t +7e ./M + *ni?*e +r+"i&

+""re in& ert+in %n"iti%n th+t +re er + i e in +n+&eri+l %n"iti%n $ h% e %n"iti%n +re

*etero&eneit' , here +ll +&ent % *l+ti%n , i il+r t% in"i i"*+l , +re heter%&ene%* +n" +

"i er in +ri%* + hi h +n h+n&e %r +"+ t % er ti e autonom' , here there i + l+ 7 %

t% -"% n tr* t*re, +n" there %re +&ent +re +*t%n% %* in eh+ i%r e,plicit space , hi h i

the e"i* here +ll the e ent et een +&ent t+7e l+ e local interactions , here +&ent

inter+ t ith e+ h %ther, + ell + the en ir%n ent (%r the + e) it el +n" in+ll boun e

rationalit' , hi h i + %n e t th+t + initi+ll "e el% e" Si %n (19 2), hi h t+te th+t

in"i i"*+l +nn%t % e % lete 7n% le"&e % re+lit $ .ll % the e %n e t re le t the

le#i ilit +n" % enne % +&ent- + e" %"elin& hen "e+lin& ith int+n&i le, re+l-li e%n tr* t * h + er %n+lit $

Pe h7in (1993: +&e 2 ) t+te th+t K l+ri in& +n" *n"er t+n"in& % le#it Lit+li r%

%ri&in+l ?*%te , +n%ther %*t % e % inter ret+ti%n, i i %rt+nt e +* e % t % h+t e

t*" i tr*l % le#, rel+tin& t% e% le, e ent , +n" it*+ti%n h+r+ teri>e" %re

+ri+ le th+n +n %ne +n +n+&e t% i"enti , ee in rel+ti%n hi , %r % er+ti%n+li>e $ he

i *l+ti%n +r+"i& i e?*i e" ith t%%l +n" te hni?*e th+t hel re e+r her +""re the e

% le# rel+ti%n , +n" +n+l >e the it*+ti%n here the e rel+ti%n hi t+7e l+ e$

. %"el i "e ine" il ert +n" r%it> h (2005) + K+ i li i +ti%n- +ller, le "et+ile",

le % le#, %r +ll % the e t%&ether-% % e %ther tr* t*re %r te ( $ 2)$ he *rther

t+te th+t thr%*&h + r% e % + tr+ ti%n, + %"el i *ilt (either thr%*&h + et %

+the +ti +l e?*+ti%n , t+ti ti +l e?*+ti%n %r + % *ter r%&r+ ) hi h %*l" in t*rn e

* e" t% "e el% ne the%rie $

=%r the *r % e % thi re e+r h, +n *n"er t+n"in& h% in"i i"*+l ith "i erent hil% % hi +l

r% ile ten" t% %l e % le# r% le i &%in& t% e e t+ li he" thr%*&h thi t e %

i *l+ti%n$ .&ent-/+ e" %"elin& h+ een h% en + +n + r% ri+te t%%l %r thi re e+r h,

in e it % e e ert+in h+r+ teri ti th+t +re nee"e" in the%r e# l%r+ti%n, + ell +

&+inin& in i&ht %n % le# it*+ti%n $ /e +* e % *ter i *l+ti%n r% i"e the + + ilit %

h+rin& + eth%"%l%& , e# eri ent+ti%n +n" "+t+ e# li itl , th%r%*&h in e ti%n +n"

replicabilit' i +l % e t+ li he" (. r+h+ %n ilen 7 , 2005)$

il ert +n" r%it> h (2005) r% i"e +n e# l+n+ti%n %n h i *l+ti%n ee t% e + r% er it

%r % i+l t*"ie :

*e ma.or reason for social scientists becomin& increasin&l' intereste in computer

simulation is its potential to assist in iscover' an formali/ation0 *e process of

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formali/ation +*ic* involves bein& precise about +*at t*e t*eor' means an ma in&

sure t*at it is complete an co*erent is a ver' valuable iscipline in its o+n ri&*t ( $ 5)

il ert +n" r%it> h +l % t+te th+t the initi+ti%n %int hen * in& i *l+ti%n + + eth%" i

th+t there i + re+l %rl" hen% en%n (the t+r&et) th+t the re e+r her i intere te" in

in e ti&+tin&$ he +in *r % e % the i *l+ti%n, there %re, i t% re+te + %"el % th+t

t+r&et, hi h %*l" e i ler t% t*"$ ;% e er, + i"e r% thi i li i +ti%n, the %"el +l %

nee" t% e " n+ i , in e in % i+l ien e the t+r&et i %n t+ntl h+n&in& % er ti e, +n"

re+ tin& t% it en ir%n ent$ ;+ in& "e i"e" %n h+t the %"el h%*l" % ri e, +

re re ent+ti%n % the %"el + + e i i +ti%n nee" t% e %r *l+te"$ hi e i i +ti%n +n e

+"e in ter % + +the +ti +l e?*+ti%n, + l%&i +l t+te ent, %r + % *ter r%&r+ $ In

% e in t+n e , e e i+ll hen thi e i i +ti%n i n%t line+r, +n+l ti +l re+ %nin& + e

"i i *lt, %r e en i % i le$ h+t i h , il ert +n" r%it> h %n l*"e, i *l+ti%n i % ten the

%nl + $

. + re *lt % the + t + %*nt % re e+r h th+t h+ een "%ne %n ./M, it +n e +i" th+t

there i %n en * t% % e "e&ree %n h+t h+r+ teri ti +n +&ent h%*l" % e $ +7in&

int% %n i"er+ti%n + + le % the e re e+r he (<+* +n, 1995 Jennin& , S +r+

%%lri"&e, 1998 il ert ern+, 2000 /%n+ e+*, 2002 M+ +l N%rth, 2005), here i h%

+n +&ent +n e "e ine":

1$ .&ent +re i"enti i+ le, el - %nt+ine", "i rete in"i i"*+l , % e in& their % n et %

h+r+ teri ti +n" r*le $ hi e+n th+t +n +&ent h+ it % n %*n"+rie , hi h hel

"eter ine hether % ethin& el%n& t% +n +&ent, %r i %*t i"e % the %*n"+rie %

th+t +&ent$

2$ .&ent +re it*+te" in +n en ir%n ent, hi h r% i"e the e"i* %r +&ent t%

inter+ t ith %ther +&ent $ here ert+in r*le %r the inter+ ti%n % +&ent $

3$ .&ent +re &%+l-"ire te", e+nin& th+t e+ h +&ent h+ + &%+l t% + hie e$

4$ .&ent +re +*t%n% %* the in"e en"entl ee7 their % n &%+l + e" %n their % nl% +l in %r +ti%n$ here i n% entr+l +*th%rit , %ntr%ller %r l+nner$ hi +7e el -

%r&+ni>+ti%n % i le$

5$ .&ent +re inter"e en"ent$ he + ti%n % e+ h +&ent in l*en e the %ther $

6$ .&ent %ll% e#tre el i le r*le , i le t +n" e t * %rte" + * ti%n + %*t

in"i i"*+l +&ent eh+ i%r$

$ .&ent +re le#i le, e+nin& th+t the h+ e the + ilit t% le+rn +n" +"+ t their

eh+ i%r % er ti e$ hi i re le te" +t the in t+n e here +n +&ent h+ + %r %

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e %r , +n" it + h+ e % e r*le th+t %"i it eh+ i%r + %r"in& t% the e

e %rie $

=%ll% in& the e +n" re i%* l "i * e" te , the .&ent-/+ e" %"el ill e %n tr* te" in

the %ll% in& +rt$

$. Research %ethodolo"

he +in re e+r h te t+rt ith the oncept $ hi i %ll% e" the oncept to omputer

( 2 ) h+ e$ In thi te , the re i%* l "e el% e" %n e t*+l %"el +n" the re i e +re

h+ e" +n" %r +li>e" in * h + + th+t the +n e * e" + in *t %r the % *ter

i *l+ti%n %"el$ hi +n e th%*&ht % + the e*"% %"e$ ;+ in& e t+ li he" thi , the in+l

h+ e ( omputer ) %n i t % *il"in& the % *ter i *l+ti%n %"el$

$.1. Conceptual #tep

he %n e t*+l h+ e %n i t % the re i%* l "e el% e", i"enti ie" +n" ele te" re i e ,

r*le +n" the %nte#t$

Premises

1$ Phil% % hi +l +r+"i& + *n"erl in& "i en i%n %r er %n+lit r% ile hen "e+lin&

ith % le# r% le

+) he hil% % hi +l r% ile % the in"i i"*+l (PPI) %nt+in three hil% % hi +l

"i en i%n E i te %l%& , Ont%l%& +n" ele%l%& $

) E i te %l%&i +l "i en i%n %nt+in E iri i t +n" B+ti%n+li t re"i % iti%n $

) Ont%l%&i +l "i en i%n %nt+in S* t+nti e +n" Pr% e re"i % iti%n $

") ele%l%&i +l "i en i%n %nt+in %+l-%riente" +n" N%t %+l-%riente" re"i %-

iti%n $

2$ ;% the e r% ile "e+l ith! %l e % le# r% le

+) h+t +7e + r% le % le#

i$ @+ 7 % in %r +ti%n

ii$ ;i&h n* er % entitie

iii$ . i&*iti $ In t+ ilit

$ e %r+l %n tr+int

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) @e el % % le#it

) ;% "% the r% ile "e+l ith % le# r% le

i$ E+ h re"i % iti%n ill h+ e + "i erent + % "e+lin&, i$e$ "i erent

+ + ilitie $

ii$ hen the +re % ine", h+t h+ en

$.2. &rom Concept to Computer

he C%n e t t% C% *ter (C2C) r% e , re ente" el% in =i&*re 3, in %l e t+7in& the

+ % e %n e t*+l the%r , tr* t*rin& it +n" %r +li>in& it in + + th+t it +n e *t int% +

i *l+ti%n e"i* (./M) * in& + +rti *l+r t%%l (Net@%&%)$ .n i %rt+nt %int t% +""re

here i th+t the el% r% e i n%nline+r iter+ti%n , tri+l +n" err%r , +n" %"i i +ti%n +rere ent in e er te $

=i&*re 3$ C2C Pr% e ( il ert r%it> h, 2005)

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$.3. Computer Implementation #tep

hi l+ t t+&e i here the +&ent- + e" %"el i *ilt, %n i tin& % t % h+ e $ Ph+ e 1

re ent +n e# l+n+ti%n %n h% the * er- %"el inter+ ti%n t+7e l+ e, +n" Ph+ e 2 i +

"et+ile" "i * i%n %n the + t*+l i *l+ti%n %"el, +n" h+t i t+7in& l+ e in i"e the

i *l+ti%n r*n$ here %re, the e t % le el % *r i *lt+ne%* l $ he * er i re %n i le r%

the initi+l et* %n"iti%n , +n" the r*nnin& % the r%&r+ $ hile the i *l+ti%n i ein& r*n

+ %r"in& t% the r*le +n" inter+ ti%n "e ri e" in Ph+ e 2, the * er +n "ire tl % er e the

%*t *t i"enti ie"$ . %re "et+ile" +n+l i % thi %*t *t t+7e l+ e + ter +r" $

$.3.1. Representation of the Individual

he three "i en i%n % the r% ile %r the in"i i"*+l ( r% n% %n Kin"i i"*+l +&ent ) +re

re re ente" + e +r+te +&ent $ he +in re i e % the PPI i th+t the er %n+lit r% ile i

% % e" % three hil% % hi +l "i en i%n , +n" the e "i en i%n h+ e t % +in % %nent

hi h re re ent the re"i % iti%n % the in"i i"*+l$ /*il"in& * %n th+t re i e, the e %n"

% %nent % thi re e+r h i t% ee h% the e re"i % iti%n , "i en i%n +n" r% ile "e+l

ith r% le % ert+in % le#it $ .ll +&ent % e % %n +ttri *te , n+ el h+ e,

i>e, l% +ti%n, n* er, +n" % e ent, ener& +n" ID$

•

#hape: E+ h % the hil% % hi +l "i en i%n (e i te %l%& , %nt%l%& +n" tele%l%& ) ire re ente" + "i erent h+ e$

• #i!e: he in"i i"*+l +&ent h+ e + i>e % 1$4$ hi +l*e i "i erent r% the i>e %r

the r% le +&ent n%t %nl e +* e % i *+l *r % e , *t +inl e +* e % ert+in

tr+ 7in& "% n +n" %*t *t l%ttin& *r % e $

• 'ocation: E+ h % the in"i i"*+l +&ent i r+n"% l l+ e" hen re+te"$

• (umber: he initi+l n* er % in"i i"*+l +&ent i "eter ine" the * er +n" +n e

et een >er% +n" i t , ith in re+ in& in re ent % 2 (i$e$ 0, 2, 4, et $)$ he re+ %n

%r thi i e# l+ine" in l+tter e ti%n $

• %ovement: hen + 7e" t% % e, +ll r% le +&ent % e %ne te %r +r", then

+7e + r+n"% 90 t*rn, +n" % e %ne te %r +r" +&+in$ he *r % e ehin" the

% e ent i t% re+te + e+n % inter+ ti%n %r the +&ent re re entin& + r% le

+n" +n in"i i"*+l$

•

#pecific variable: .ll in"i i"*+l +ri+ le h+ e ert+in Kener& $ =%r the in"i i"*+l+&ent , thi re re ent the capabilit' % the e i i re"i % iti%n t% %l e the e i i

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r% le $ hi + + ilit i + r+n"% l + i&ne" n* er &re+ter th+n >er%, +n" +ller

th+n 120$

• )pist*id+,nt*id+Tel*id: he in"i i"*+l +&ent % n + e i i K i entification (i ) $ hi

e % e +n i %rt+nt %int in the re re ent+ti%n % the in"i i"*+l +&ent $ S% +r, the

+ % e e# l+n+ti%n h+ e een in rel+ti%n t% the three hil% % hi +l "i en i%n $ N% ,

the % * t*rn t% the re"i % iti%n , hi h i h+t the i" re re ent $ he

E i te %l%&i +l i" + either e E iri i t %r B+ti%n+li t$ he Ont%l%&i +l i" + either

e S* t+nti e %r Pr% e $ he ele%l%&i +l i" +n either e %+l %r N% %+l$ hree

+le , +lle" the K pre isposition scales (=i&*re 4), h+ e een re+te", hi h i

%ntr%lle" + li"er in the ./M$ he e +le re re ent the "i erent re"i % iti%n ,

%re e i i +ll , h% * h % th% e re"i % iti%n +re re ent ithin the %"el

inter + e$ he +le i re re ente" + + er ent+&e, ith in re+ in& in re ent % 10$

=i&*re 4$ Pre"i % iti%n S +le

he ir t +le, rel+te" t% the E i te %l%&i +l "i en i%n, i the Empiricist5Rationalist

+le$ he initi+l +l*e % the +le i "eter ine" the * er$ he e#tre e en" % the

+le re re ent the t % % % ite re"i % iti%n $ =%r in t+n e, i the er ent+&e i et

+t 0 , thi e+n th+t +ll % the e i te %l%&i +l +&ent +re Ke iri i t +&ent $ I the

+le i et +t 10 , thi e+n th+t 90 % the e i te %l%&i +l +&ent +re e iri i t ,

+n" 10 % the t%t+l e i te %l%&i +l +&ent +re Kr+ti%n+li t +&ent $ I the +le i et

+t 100 , thi e+n th+t +ll % the e i te %l%&i +l +&ent +re Kr+ti%n+li t +&ent $

• Color: . %r"in& t% the e i i re"i % iti%n +le "eter ine" initi+ll the * er, the

E i te %l%&i +l +&ent ill h+ e the %l%r K l*e %r K 7 the Ont%l%&i +l +&ent ill h+ e

the %l%r K +&ent+ %r K i%let , +n" the ele%l%&i +l +&ent ill h+ e the %l%r K r% n %r

K ell% $

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=i&*re 5 re re ent the te t+7en t% re+te +n in"i i"*+l +&ent$ . "e ri e" + % e,

hen +n in"i i"*+l +&ent i re+te", the i>e +n" l% +ti%n +re re et in the en e th+t

the * er "%e n%t h+ e +n %ntr%l % er the e ettin& $ he * er, h% e er, "eter ine

h% +n +&ent there ill e thr%*&h the * e % the Kn* er % in"i i"*+l +&ent

li"er$ he * er +n +l % "eter ine hi h % the e +&ent ill e re re entin& hi h

re"i % iti%n $ In %ther %r" , i the * er +nt t% e# l%re PPI1 (ES ), he! he ill et

the E iri i tQB+ti%n+li t +le t% 0 , hi h en *re th+t +ll % the e i te %l%&i +l

+&ent ill e E iri i t $ +7in& int% %n i"er+ti%n the t e % +&ent , the r%&r+

"eter ine the h+ e +n" the %l%r % the +&ent $ E+ h +&ent, + "i * e" + % e,

% e e + ert+in + + ilit $ hi + + ilit i +l % et r+n"% l $ . %r"in& t% +ll %

the e ettin& , + ert+in n* er % +&ent +re re+te" +n" l% +te" r+n"% l

thr%*&h%*t the +ti+l en ir%n ent in thi + e, the +&&re&+te % in"i i"*+l +&ent +re

n% re re entin& PPI1$

=i&*re 5$ Set* %r In"i i"*+l .&ent

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$.3.2. Representation of the Complex Problem

E+ h % the i e +ri+ le th+t %n tit*te + % le# r% le i re re ente" + + "i erent +&ent

%ll% in& the r*le el% :

•

#hape: .ll r% le +ri+ le ( r% n% %n K r% le +&ent ) h+ e i il+r h+ e , %retter i *+li>+ti%n *r % e $ In thi + e, e+ h r% le +&ent i re re ente" + +

"i erent t e % "ie$

• #i!e: .ll r% le +&ent h+ e + i>e % 1$5$

• 'ocation: hen re+te", +ll r% le +&ent +re l+ e" +t + r+n"% l h% en l% +ti%n$

• %ovement: hen + 7e" t% % e, +ll r% le +&ent % e %ne te %r +r", then

+7e + r+n"% 90 t*rn, +n" % e %ne te %r +r" +&+in$

• (umber: he initi+l n* er % r% le +&ent i "eter ine" the * er, +n" i

et een >er% +n" 50$ he n* er % +&ent +n e in re+ e" +t in re ent % 10 (i$e$

10 +&ent , 20 +&ent $ et $)$ he re+ %n i e# l+ine" in the l+tter e ti%n $

• #pecific variable: .ll r% le +&ent h+ e ert+in Kener& , +lle" ifficult' $ hi

re re ent the level of comple,it' % the r% le +&ent$ hi re e+r h * e the

l+ i i +ti%n Si le-Me"i* -C% le#$ ;+ in& %nl Si le +n" C% le# %*l" e +

* e *l i li i +ti%n h% e er, r% le "% n%t h+n&e r% % le# t% i le +t +nin t+nt$ he "i i *lt % + r% le +&ent i r+n"% l + i&ne" hen the +&ent i

re+te"$ It +n e &re+ter th+n >er%, +n" +ller th+n 120$ he +#i * li it %*l"

h+ e een +n n* er$ he le el % % le#it i "i i"e" int% three ( i le, e"i* ,

+n" % le#), +n" i re le te" in the K"i i *lt +ttri *te % the r% le +&ent + * h:

+) i R 80 ("i i *lt % r% le +&ent) 120, r% le +&ent: hi&h % le#it

) i R 40 ("i i *lt % r% le +&ent) 80, r% le +&ent: e"i* % le#it

) i R 0 ("i i *lt % r% le +&ent) 40, r% le +&ent i le

• Color: he le el % % le#it i re le te" %n the r% le +&ent in ter % %l%r$ he

K i le r% le +&ent +re &reen, K e"i* r% le +&ent +re %r+n&e, +n" Khi&h

% le# +&ent +re re"$

• ,verall Problem Complexit : E en th%*&h e+ h r% le +ri+ le i re re ente"

e +r+tel , the % er+ll r% le % le#it i rele +nt t% the %"el, +n" i there %re

re re ente" + the +&&re&+te +l*e % in"i i"*+l r% le +ri+ le th+t i , the % er+ll

% le#it % the r% le +&ent ill e e?*+l t% the * % Kin %r +ti%n , Kentit ,

K t+ ilit , K+ i&*it , +n" Kti e +&ent % le#itie $

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=i&*re 6 re re ent the + % e te %r the re+ti%n % the r% le +&ent $ hen +

r% le +&ent i re+te", i il+r t% the in"i i"*+l +&ent , the i>e +n" l% +ti%n +re

re et$ he initi+l n* er % +&ent i "eter ine" thr%*&h the Kn* er % r% le

+&ent li"er$ he le el % % le#it % the r% le i "eter ine" + "i * e" + % e$

he %l%r +n" the "i i *lt +l*e %r the +&ent +re "eter ine" + %r"in& t% the initi+l

ettin& the * er h%% e $

=i&*re 6$ Set* %r Pr% le .&ent

-. Rules

. ter &%in& thr%*&h the &ener+l +ttri *te %r +ll +&ent , +n" e i i +ttri *te %r r% le

+n" in"i i"*+l +&ent , thi e ti%n r% i"e the el+ %r+ti%n %r the r*le th+t the +&ent %ll% $

here +re three et % r*le th+t the i *l+ti%n en ir%n ent +n %nt+in: (1) B*le

( h+r+ teri ti ) % in"i i"*+l +&ent , hi h +re %n i"ere" t% e K ri +te in %r +ti%n,r% i"e" t% e+ h in"i i"*+l +&ent * h th+t the +re re+" t% e in *t in the Net@%&%

en ir%n ent, %r +&ent t% %ll% (2) B*le th+t +re % %n t% +ll +&ent , hi h +re

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%n i"ere" + K * li in %r +ti%n, +n" +re + e i le +n" + +il+ le t% +ll % the +&ent +n"

(3) B*le %r %nne tin& the +&ent , hi h i %n i"ere" + %* lin& here it ill r% i"e the

%n"iti%n here %ne +&ent + %nne t ith +n%ther$

-.1. Public Rules

P* li r*le +re e i i r*le , %r in tr* ti%n th+t +re &i en t% +ll the +&ent $ he e r*le +re

+ e i le +ll the +&ent +t +n ti e$

.ll +&ent +re re+te"

• i>e, h+ e, %l%r

.ll +&ent +re l+ e"

• r+n"% l

.ll +&ent % e

• h%% e r+n"% "ire ti%n, % e %ne te

.ll in"i i"*+l +&ent inter+ t ith +ll r% le +&ent

• C+ + ilit % the in"i i"*+l +&ent ill h+n&e

• Di i *lt % the r% le +&ent ill h+n&e

he in"i i"*+l +&ent "% n%t inter+ t ith e+ h %ther

he r% le +&ent "% n%t inter+ t ith e+ h %ther

.ll +&ent "ie

• %r Pr% le : i "i i *lt 0, then "ie

• %r In"i i"*+l: i + + ilit 0, then "ie

-.2. Private Rules

he e r*le +re * t% i>e" %r e+ h +&ent, e+nin& th+t e+ h t e % +&ent ill h+ e +

"i erent et % ri +te r*le $ he + i +ll tell e+ h +&ent h+t t% "%, +n" hen t% "% it$

he e et % r*le +n e th%*&ht % + &%+l , %r *r % e th+t +re r% i"e" t% the +&ent , %r

the t% + hie e it, hi h i in line ith the re?*ire ent . r+h+ %n +n" ilen 7 (2005)

"i * $ he e "e ri e the eh+ i%r +n" + ti%n % the r% le +n" in"i i"*+l +&ent $ /%th the

in"i i"*+l +n" the r% le +&ent +re + i&ne" + &%+l, + ell + + riteri%n t% e t+ li hhether th+t +&ent h+ et it &%+l %r n%t$

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Individual A"ents Purpose is to solve problems/:

l%%7 %r r% le +ri+ le

i in" + r% le +&ent

• tr t% %l e the r% le : the + + ilit th+t + + i&ne" t% the in"i i"*+l +&ent in the

e&innin& ill h+n&e$

%ntin*e % in&

Criteri+ %r in"i i"*+l r% ile: ;% "% I 7n% i the r% ile i e e ti e

• S* e

• C%n i ten

Problem A"ents Purpose is to be solved/:

i et ith +n in"i i"*+l +ri+ le

• tr t% &et %l e": the "i i *lt th+t + + i&ne" t% the r% le +&ent in the e&innin&

ill h+n&e$

%ntin*e % in&

Criteri+ %r r% le : ;% "% I 7n% r% le i %l e"

• In"i i"*+l r% le +ri+ le %l*ti%n

• O er+ll r% le % le#it

he + % e te +re e# l+ine" in =i&*re $

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=i&*re $ C% %n B*le Di+&r+ %r Inter+ tin& .&ent

-.3. Interaction Rules

he e r*le +re inter+ ti%n r*le %r e+ h % the in"i i"*+l +&ent ith the r% le +&ent $ In

el% i&*re (=i&*re 8), +n e#+ le % the e r*le i &i en$ he i&*re re re ent h+t

h+ en hen +n in"i i"*+l +&ent h% i +n e iri i t eet i e % the r% le +ri+ le $ KC

"en%te comple, , +n" KS "en%te simple $ =%r e#+ le, hen + +il+ le in %r +ti%n + %*t the

r% le i ;i&h, thi in"i i"*+l ill "e+l ith the r% le etter, e +* e the + + ilitie +re

tr%n&er, in e the t%%l he h+ +7e hi re"i % e" in + + * h th+t he ill +nt t%

%lle t in %r +ti%n %n the r% le ir t$ hi + t+7e + l%n&er ti e ( hi h e % e

i %rt+nt hen the r% le i ti e-"e en"ent), *t thi + +7e *re th+t the r% le i

%rre tl i"enti ie"$ hi i % er+ti%n+li>e" + K r% le %l e" $ hen + +il+ le in %r +ti%n

+ %*t the r% le i @% , in %ther %r" , hen the r% le +nn%t e "e ine" r% erl , the

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E iri i t ill "e+l ith the r% le %%rl $ hi i % er+ti%n+li>e" + K r% le n%t %l e" $

he in"i i"*+l ill +nt t% %lle t in %r +ti%n, *t ill +il t% "% %$ hi ill le+" t% +n

in % lete *n"er t+n"in& % the r% le $ C%% er, =%lt+ +n" %% (1995), %r in t+n e, %*n"

th+t entre rene*r ith rele +nt in"* tr e# erien e ill till er %r %re in %r +ti%n e+r h

%n + r% le $

=i&*re 8$ S+ le Inter+ ti%n B*le %r E iri i t .&ent

. een r% + % e i&*re, there +re "i erent + + r% le +n e %l e", %r n%t %l e"$ .

re i%* l "i * e", there +re t % +ri+ le th+t h+n&e "*rin& the e inter+ ti%n : the

r% le "i i *lt +n" the re"i % iti%n + + ilit $ he %ll% in& r*le +re * e" %r the e

h+n&e in the +ri+ le ( + le 1)$

Capabilit 0ifficult

Pr% le n%t %l e" –2 N% h+n&e

Pr% le n%t %l e" le –1 N% h+n&ePr% le %l e" T2 –2

Pr% le %l e" le T1 –1

+ le 1$ B*le %r C+ + ilit +n" Di i *lt

• Problem ot Solve : hi r*le in"i +te th+t the re"i % iti%n "i" n%t h+ e en%*&h

+ + ilitie t% "e+l ith th+t +rti *l+r +ri+ le, there %re l% t + + ilitie ith +n

in re ent % -2$ he r% le "i i *lt "%e n%t h+n&e$

• Problem ot Solve 6ess : hi r*le i + %"i i +ti%n %n the ir t %ne$ he r% ile +

till n%t h+ e en%*&h + + ilitie t% "e+l ith + r% le +ri+ le, h% e er in + li&htl

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le er "e&ree$ =%r in t+n e, the "i +" +nt+&e +n E iri i t h+ % er l+ 7 % + +il+ le

in %r +ti%n i n%t in the + e e#tent th+t + %+l-%riente" in"i i"*+l h+ ith +n

+ i&*%* r% le , hen e the "e re+ e in + + ilit ith +n in re ent % -1$ ;% e er,

the r% le "i i *lt till re +in *n h+n&e"$

• Problem Solve : hi r*le in"i +te th+t the re"i % iti%n "%e h+ e tr%n& + + ilitie

hen "e+lin& ith th+t +rti *l+r r% le +ri+ le, e$&$ +n E iri i t +&ent + in& +n

in %r +ti%n +ri+ le ith + hi&h le el % + +il+ le in %r +ti%n$ In thi + e, thi +&ent i

+ le t% %l e th+t +rti *l+r r% le +ri+ le, +n" in t*rn in re+ e it + + ilitie

T2$ he r% le "i i *lt "e re+ e -2$

• Problem Solve 6ess : hi r*le, i il+r t% the e %n" %ne, i + %"i ie" er i%n % the

re i%* r*le$ In thi + e, the re"i % iti%n i till + + le % "e+lin& ith + +rti *l+r

r% le +&ent, +l eit in + le er "e&ree$ here %re the + + ilit &+in i T1, +n" ther% le "i i *lt i "e re+ e" -1$

he e * tle "i eren e +re ne e +r in %r"er t% + t*re the n*+n e ithin re"i % iti%n ,

+n" the + the "e+l ith e+ h r% le +ri+ le$ ith%*t the e "i erent r*le , the e er&ent

+ + ilit % the +&ent- + e" %"el %*l" h+ e een i&n%re", +n" the h%le *r % e % * in&

thi e i i eth%" %*l" h+ e een "e e+te"$

he te % h% the % *ter i *l+ti%n i &%in& t% t+7e l+ e +re * +ri>e" in =i&*re 9$

=i&*re 9$ O er+ll B*le Ch+rt

. the ir t te , the * er ele t the n* er % +&ent "e ri in& the r% le +ri+ le , +n"the n* er % +&ent "e ri in& in"i i"*+l re"i % iti%n $ =%ll% in& thi , thr%*&h the

re"i % iti%n +le , the * er ele t the r% ile t% e e# l%re"$ he r% le %n"iti%n +n

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e "eter ine" the * er + ell$ E+ h % the i e +ri+ le (+ +il+ le in %r +ti%n, n* er %

entitie , t+ ilit , + i&*it +n" ti e) +n e +"'* te" e +r+tel $ i e %r the i *l+ti%n r*n

+n +l % e +"'* te" + %r"in& t% the nee" % the * er$ he r*n +n h+ e n% ti e li it in thi

+ e the %"el i %"e" in * h + + th+t it %*l" ter in+te it el hen there +re n%

in"i i"*+l %r r% le +&ent $ hen the * er hit the K et* *tt%n, the re"eter ine"

n* er % +&ent ill e re+te" +n" r+n"% l "i tri *te" %n the inter + e, hi h i the

en ir%n ent in hi h the +&ent inter+ t ith e+ h %ther$ he in"i i"*+l +&ent +re + i&ne"

ert+in + + ilitie , +n" the r% le +&ent +re + i&ne" "i i *ltie $

hen the r%&r+ i t+rte" ith the K&% *tt%n, %th the in"i i"*+l +n" r% le +&ent ill

t+rt % in& r+n"% l $ hi e+n th+t there i n% + r% le th+t the in"i i"*+l nee" t%

+""re $ he in"i i"*+l +&ent l%%7 %r r% le +&ent t% %l e$ On e the in"i i"*+l +&ent

% e + r% + r% le +&ent, the in"i i"*+l +&ent "eter ine h+t t e (e$&$ Kin % ) +n"

h+t le el (e$&$ Khi&h ) th+t r% le +&ent i $ . %r"in& t% the h+r+ teri ti % the r% le+&ent +n" the in"i i"*+l +&ent it el , the in"i i"*+l ill either %l e the r% le %r n%t$ I the

in"i i"*+l +&ent +n %l e the r% le , the + + ilit % th+t +&ent ill in re+ e, +n" the

"i i *lt % the r% le +&ent ill "e re+ e$ I the in"i i"*+l +&ent +nn%t %l e the r% le ,

the + + ilit ill in re+ e, +n" the r% le "i i *lt ill re +in the + e$ hi r% e

%ntin*e *ntil there +re n% %re r% le %r in"i i"*+l +&ent re +inin&$

-.$. )valuation Criteria

In %r"er t% + *r+tel "eter ine +n" inter ret the re *lt , ert+in riteri+ nee" t% e

e t+ li he"$ he ir t i rel+te" t% the in"i i"*+l, +n" the e %n" i rel+te" t% the % le#

r% le $

Criteria for the Individual:

hi i rel+te" ith the e e ti ene % the PPI *n"er ?*e ti%n, +n" trie t% +n er the

?*e ti%n: ;% "% I 7n% i the r% ile i e e ti e

• Success: he etter +n in"i i"*+l +&ent i ith + r% le +&ent (+ %r"in& t% the r*le

+ % e), the %re + + ilitie it ill &+in hen %l in& the r% le $ here %re, hen +n

in"i i"*+l +&ent +tte t t% %l e + r% le +&ent th+t it i % %rt+ le %l in&, the

+ + ilit % the in"i i"*+l +&ent ill in re+ e$ I n%t, the + + ilit % the in"i i"*+l

+&ent ill "e re+ e$

• onsistenc': hi ill "e en" %n h% * e *l +n in"i i"*+l +&ent i % er ti e, in

"i erent r*n $ It i r* i+l t% l%%7 +t hether %r n%t the + + ilit % the +rti *l+r

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re"i % iti%n, + ell + the % er+ll + + ilit % the r% ile in re+ e %r "e re+ e in +

i il+r + hi%n hen "i erent r*n *n"er + e %n"iti%n +re trie"$

Criteria for the Problem:

• hi i rel+te" t% the r% le th+t the in"i i"*+l i +tte tin& t% %l e, +n" trie t%

+n er the ?*e ti%n: ;% "% I 7n% r% le i %l e" he r% le i %n i"ere"

solve hen the "i i *lt i e?*+l t% >er%$ he "i i *lt % + r% le +&ent ill

"e re+ e i the in"i i"*+l +&ent i % %rt+ le ith "e+lin& ith th+t t e % r% le $ I

n%t, the "i i *lt ill in re+ e$

=i&*re 10 el% i + n+ h%t % the Net@%&% +&ent- + e" %"el th+t + %n tr* te" +

"i * e" + % e$

=i&*re 10$ Sn+ h%t % the PPI M%"el

. Results and 0iscussions

In thi e ti%n, e i i re *lt + hie e" + +rt % the i *l+ti%n ill e re ente", + ell +

"i * i%n %n the i&ni i +n e % the e re *lt $ he e %n" +rt % thi e ti%n in l*"e

"i * i%n %n the +n%n % re e+r h, * h + eri i +ti%n +n" +li"it $

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.1. #imulation Results

In %r"er t% % +re +ll ei&ht r% ile ith e+ h %ther, t % +t he % +n+l e ere %n"* te"$

he ir t +n+l i i %n"* te" %n the r% le %l e", +n" the ti e it t%%7 the r% ile t% %l e

the % le# r% le $ he e %n" +n+l i i %n the + + ilitie % the r% ile $ he +r h+rt

el% + % t+ine" r% the in"i i"*+l re *lt % the i *l+ti%n r*n $ =i&*re 11 i +

re re ent+ti%n % the ti e it t%%7 %r e+ h r% ile t% re+ h 80 , 90 +n" 100 %l*ti%n %r

the % le# r% le $ ithin the %"el, the % le# r% le i %l e" % letel e+ h %

the r% ile $ ;% e er, the ti e it t+7e %r the r% ile t% "% thi i "i erent, "e en"in& %n the

re"i % iti%n % the r% ile $

. %r"in& t% re *lt h% n el% , PPI8 (BPN) %l e" + % le# r% le % letel in the

le+ t + %*nt % ti e$ hi i %ll% e" PPI (BSN)$ In %th the e + e , the %nt%l%&i +l

re"i % iti%n + B+ti%n+li t, +n" the ele%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n + N% %+l %rient+ti%n$

hen "e+lin& ith + % le# r% le , the re *lt h% th+t the e +rti *l+r re"i % iti%n

r% i"e * e *l + + ilitie t% the in"i i"*+l$ On the %ther h+n", the r% ile th+t nee"e" the

l%n&e t ti e ere PPI1 (ES ) +n" PPI4 (BP )$ he &%+l-%rient+ti%n % the r% ile %r7 + +

"i +" +nt+&e in the + e % the e t % r% ile $

=i&*re 11$ C% +ri %n % Pr% ile %r C% le# Pr% le S%l*ti%n

S% e intere tin& %n l* i%n +n e "r+ n r% thi $ It %*l" e % er e" th+t the r% ile

ere l* tere" int% 2 &r%* the ir t &r%* %n i tin& % PPI8, PPI , PPI6 +n" PPI3 +n" the

e %n" &r%* ein& PPI2, PPI5, PPI4 +n" PPI1$ ith the e# e ti%n % PPI3 +n" PPI5, the t %

&r%* +re "i i"e" + %r"in& t% their tele%l%&i +l "i en i%n, ith the r% ile h+ in& n% &%+l

%rient+ti%n %n the le t h+n" i"e, in"i +tin& ?*i 7er r% le %l*ti%n, +n" the &%+l %riente"

r% ile t+7in& + l%n&er ti e t% %l e + r% le $ E en th%*&h PPI5 (ESN) h+re the + e%nt%l%&i +l +n" tele%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n ith r% ile PPI (BSN), the e i te %l%&i +l

re"i % iti%n i the "% in+nt %ne in thi + e$

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In %r"er t% %n"* t + "ee er +n+l i % thi , the %ll% in& .NOF. t+ le h+ een % t+ine" %r

the ei&ht r% ile ( + le 2)$

A(, A

Problem solved

#um of s uares df %ean s uare & #i".

/et een &r%* 965335$396 13 905$05 180$15 $000

ithin &r%* 2$64ET0 34440 65$4 3

%t+l 2$ 3ET0 3444

+ le 2$ .NOF. %r +ll r% ile %l in& r% le

. een r% + % e t+ le, the ei&ht &r%* +re "i erent r% e+ h %ther ( 0$05)$ ;% e er,

in %r"er t% +""re the "i eren e et een the r% ile %re + *r+tel in ter % time ,

*rther +n+l i h+ e een %n"* te" %r the r% ile %n i"erin& the i il+ritie + %r"in& t%

the re i%* +r h+rt$

he tr+"iti%n+l % t h% +n+l i eth%" * h + *7e %*l" n%t e * e" in thi + e,

e +* e the + le "i" n%t + the h% %&eneit % +ri+n e te t$ . + re *lt % thi ,

+ e -;% ell % t h% +n+l i + %n"* te"$ he re *lt % t+ine" h% e" th+t, i il+r t%

the +r h+rt + % e, PPI2, PPI4 +n" PPI5 ere n%t i&ni i +ntl "i erent r% e+ h %ther +n"

there %re %r e" %ne l* ter$ he + e re *lt ere een %r PPI6, PPI +n" PPI8, hi h ere+l % n%t i&ni i +ntl "i erent r% e+ h %ther$ ;% e er, PPI1 +n" PPI3 ere i&ni i +ntl

"i erent r% +ll % the %ther r% ile , +n" r% e+ h %ther$ he e re *lt re re ent the

i il+ritie +n" "i eren e et een the ei&ht r% ile in ter % the ti e it t%%7 the t% %l e

the % le# r% le $ he %ll% in& %n l* i%n +n e "r+ n r% the e re *lt : hen the

e i te %l%&i +l re"i % iti%n i r+ti%n+li t, +n" there i n% &%+l %rient+ti%n, then the

%nt%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n "%e n%t h+ e + i&ni i +nt e e t %n the % er+ll eh+ i%r % the

r% ile, hen e the l+ 7 % "i eren e et een PPI +n" PPI8$ hi + e "*e t% the + t th+t

in e the r+ti%n+li t re"i % iti%n ill * e 7ill * h + re+ %nin&, "e"* ti%n +n" l%&i t% &+inin %r +ti%n +n" + ?*ire 7n% le"&e + %*t + % le# r% le , h% th+t r% le i "e ine"

( hether + in"i i"*+l entitie , %r + + e?*en e) "%e n%t e % e rele +nt$ I the

e i te %l%&i +l re"i % iti%n + e iri i t, thi %*l" h+ e een "i erent, + in the + e %

PPI5 (ESN) +n" PPI6 (EPN)$ he e t % r% ile +re "i erent r% e+ h %ther, e+nin& th+t the

%nt%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n in thi + e h+ + i&ni i +nt e e t, in e the e iri i t in"i i"*+l ill

nee" t% %lle t h+r" "+t+ +n" + t t% *n"er t+n" + r% le $ he "e initi%n % th+t r% le

e % e rele +nt in thi t e % it*+ti%n$

It +n e een th+t PPI3 +n" PPI2 +re i&ni i +ntl "i erent r% e+ h %ther + ell$ E en

th%*&h the +re "i erent in ter % %th their e i te %l%&i +l +n" %nt%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n ,

%ne % the +in re i e + th+t the e iri i t re"i % iti%n + h% n t% h+ e * h le

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+ + ilit hen "e+lin& ith % le# r% le , hen e the i& in re+ e in ti e$ . een r%

=i&*re 12, % e r% ile &+ine" + + ilit , +n" % e r% ile l% t + + ilit$ hi i +li&ne" ith

the r% % iti%n th+t ert+in re"i % iti%n %*l" r% i"e etter + + ilitie t% the in"i i"*+l

th+n %ther$

=i&*re 12$ C% +ri %n % Pr% ile %r C+ + ilit +ine"!@% t

;ere +re % e initi+l %n l* i%n th+t +n e "r+ n r% the + % e i&*re$ Si il+r t% re i%*

re *lt , PPI + the % t * e *l in ter % &+inin& + + ilitie , %ll% e" PPI8$ PPI1

+n" PPI5, %n the %ther h+n", + the le+ t * e *l % the ei&ht r% ile $ he e t % r% ile

%n the l% er en" % the &r+ h %nt+in the + e e i te %l%&i +l +n" %nt%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n,

n+ el E iri i +n" S* t+nti e-%rient+ti%n$ here %re, "e ite the h+n&e in the

tele%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n, the e i te %l%&i +l +n" %nt%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n ere t%%

"% in+nt in ter % their "i +" +nt+&e $ E en th%*&h PPI , hi h &+ine" % t + + ilit ,

+l % h+ + * t+n e-%riente" %nt%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n, the % in+ti%n % the B+ti%n+li t +n"

N% %+l %rient+ti%n ee t% r% i"e etter + + ilitie t% the r% ile, + % % e" t% PPI5,

hi h h+re the + e %nt%l%&i +l +n" tele%l%&i +l re"i % iti%n$ Si il+r t% the re *lt %r

r% le %l e", +n .NOF. + %n"* te" t% l%%7 +t +ll % the ei&ht r% ile in ter % their

+ + ilitie $ he %ll% in& t+ le i % t+ine" ( + le 3)$ he re *lt h% th+t +ll r% ile +re

i&ni i +ntl "i erent r% e+ h %ther$

A(, A

Capabilit

#um of s uares df %ean s uare & #i".

/et een &r%* $ 1ET10 1$10ET10 41028$581 $000

ithin &r%* 9$26ET09 3448 268403$859

%t+l 8$63ET10 34494

+ le 3$ .NOF. %r +ll r% ile + + ilitie

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;% e er, in %r"er t% l%%7 +t *rther "et+ile" inter ret+ti%n , + % t h% +n+l i + +l %

%n"* te"$ he + + ilit +ri+ le +l % "i" n%t + the h% %&eneit % +ri+n e te t,

there %re i il+r t% the re i%* e ti%n, + e -;% ell % t h% +n+l i + %n"* te"$ he

re *lt h% th+t %nl PPI +n" PPI8 +re n%t i&ni i +ntl "i erent r% e+ h %ther$ he

%ll% in& %n l* i%n +n e "r+ n r% thi : Si il+r t% the r% le %l e", the %nt%l%&i +l

"i en i%n "i" n%t h+ e +n e e t %n the + + ilit &+ine" the r% ile PPI +n" PPI8$ In

ter % + + ilitie &+ine" %r l% t, *nli7e the r% le %l e", the r% ile eh+ e" "i erent

r% e+ h %ther ( ith the e# e ti%n % PPI +n" PPI8)$ hi e+n th+t +ll three hil% % hi +l

"i en i%n h+" % ethin& "i erent t% %ntri *te t% the eh+ i%r % the % er+ll r% ile$

.2. Canons of Research

ener+li>+ ilit , + li + ilit , %n i ten , re r%"* i ilit , re i i%n, eri i +ti%n +n" +li"+ti%n

+re e#+ le % +n%n th+t + re e+r h, thr%*&h it re e+r h "e i&n, * t r% i"e * i ient

"e th$ .n re e+r h th+t "e+l ith % i+l i *e , th+t h+ + *r % e % &+inin& in i&ht %n

% le# r% le , +n" th+t h+ little %r n% e iri +l %*n"+ti%n %r % %rt*nit % % er +ti%n

% hen% en+ *n"er ?*e ti%n nee" t% e t+ li h the + r% ri+te +n%n t% e * e", +n" %ll%

the $

E,ternal vali it' i rel+te" t% the &ener+li>+ ilit % the t*" , e$&$ r% + + le t% +

% *l+ti%n, hi h i + e" %n e t+ li hin& the "% +in % + t*" $ <eli'nen (1999: +&e 648)n%te th+t KLi n% "+t+ %n the re+l te +re + +il+ le, then tr%n& +li"+ti%n l+i +re

i % i le $ =r% the r+ti%n+li t er e ti e, e#tern+l +li"it i % * e" %n the + li + ilit t%

the %nte#t r% hi h the re i e ere "eri e"$ In %ther %r" , the re *lt h%*l" +7e

en e hen ein& %n i"ere" r% +ri%* %"ie % 7n% le"&e th+t r% i"e the + i %r the

+ 7&r%*n" re e+r h$ In the + e %r thi re e+r h, %r in t+n e, "% the in i&ht th+t h+ e een

&+ine" +7e en e D%e the + +n in"i i"*+l ith + ert+in PPI %l e % le# r% le

+7e en e =%r i *l+ti%n in the % i+l ien e , <* er +n" @enh+r" (2005) +r&*e th+t

+li"it (in the l+ i +l, tr+"iti%n+l en e) i n%t +n +"e?*+te e+ *re$ . /% el (1994)

t+te , the %n tr* ti%n % + %"el ill +l + in l*"e i li i +ti%n , +&&re&+ti%n , % i i%n

+n" + tr+ ti%n $ S+r&ent (1999) t+te" th+t "e el% in& + %"el h%*l" e + e" %n + e i i

*r % e, +n" the +li"it % th+t %"el nee" t% e %n i"ere" ith re e t t% th+t *r % e$

/% el (1994) h+" +r&*e" the + e %int hen he t+te" th+t + i *l+ti%n %"el +nn%t e

"i * e" in ter % it correctness *t %nl in ter % it +li"it ith re e t t% the %"el

*r % e$

onstruct vali it' i "e ine" + Kthe "e&ree t% hi h in eren e +n le&iti +tel e +"e r%

the % er+ti%n+li>+ti%n in Lthe t*" t% the the%reti +l %n tr* t %n hi h th% e% er+ti%n+li>+ti%n ere + e" ( r% hi , 2006)$ In %ther %r" , e t+ li hin& %n tr* t

+li"it +7e *re th+t %rre t % er+ti%n+l e+ *re +re * e" %r the %n e t th+t +re ein&

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t*"ie" (Hin, 2003)$ hen %n i"ere" ith re e t t% the r+ti%n+li t "e"* ti e eth%"%l%& ,

thi t e % +li"it i + li + le "*rin& the tr* t*r+ti%n "e el% ent t+&e$ C%n tr* t

+li"it i rele +nt t% the re i e ein& +"e e# li it$ Si il+r t% intern+l +li"it , %n tr* t

+li"it i + e" %n the %herent tr* t*re % the re i e +n" the + the +re %r *l+te" in

%r"er t% "e ri e +n" *il" 7n% le"&e l+i $ he + the re i e +n e tr+ e" + 7 t%

liter+t*re +n" + t the%rie i +n in"i +t%r %r thi t e % +li"it $

/+l i (199 : +&e 1) "e ine verification % + %"el + K * t+nti+tin& th+t the %"el i

tr+n %r e" r% %ne %r int% +n%ther, + inten"e", ith * i ient + *r+ $ In %ther ter ,

it +7e *re th+t the %"el i *ilt ri&ht$ . %r"in& t% S+r&ent "e initi%n (S+r&ent, 1999),

eri i +ti%n % + %"el en *re th+t the % *ter r%&r+ % the %"el +n" the

i le ent+ti%n +re r*nnin& %rre tl $ . %r"in& t% S+r&ent (1999), i + i *l+ti%n l+n&*+&e

i * e" ithin the % *ter r%&r+ in&, %"el eri i +ti%n +7e *re th+t the i *l+ti%n

l+n&*+&e i err%r ree, h+ een r% erl i le ente", +n" h+ een %rre tl r%&r+ e"$S% e re e+r her , the eri i +ti%n h+ e i i"enti +l t% the intern+l +li"it h+ e +n" in l*"e

"e *&&in&, hi h i "%ne t% en *re th+t the % *ter r%&r+ i r*nnin& + inten"e"$ here

+re ert+in te th+t nee" t% e t+7en in %r"er t% eri the i *l+ti%n %"el$ he %ll% in&

te +re "e ri e" il ert (2008), + ell + M+ +l +n" N%rth (200 ):

• o e ele&antl' : hi +" i e tie + 7 t% the %re % %"elin& +n" i *l+ti%n, here the

%"in& nee" t% e + i le + % i le, *t n%t t%% i le th+t ne e +r "et+il

%*l" e % itte"$ It + the intenti%n % the +*th%r t% * e + i le +n" e line +

% i le, hile +7in& *re th+t +ll the "et+il % the %"el ere in %r %r+te" ithin

the i le ent+ti%n$

• Inclu e output an ia&nostics : Net@%&% r% i"e + r+n&e % *tt%n , li"er +n"

%nit%r t% tr+ e e+ h te % the i *l+ti%n, +n" t% en *re th+t e+ h %*t *t +n"

%*t % e r% the i *l+ti%n i % eh% + t*re" thr%*&h the +n t%%l + +il+ le t%

the %"eler$

•

7bserve simulation step b' step : hi te i tie" t%&ether ith the re i%* %ne$Settin& * the %rre t tr+ 7er +n" %nit%r &i e the * er the +" +nt+&e t% % er e

h+t e#+ tl i &%in& %n +t +n %int % the i *l+ti%n$ Sl% in& "% n the i *l+ti%n

r% e +l % i + * e *l + r%+ h th+t + +"+ te" the +*th%r$ he % e ent %

e+ h +&ent +n" their inter+ ti%n thr%*&h + i *l+ti%n r*n %ne ti e te +t + ti e +

% er e"$ hi + , +n +n% +lie th+t % *r "*rin& the i *l+ti%n %*l" e +*&ht +

%%n + the % *r$

• % comments an up ate t*em : he C% +n" Center e+t*re th+t i + +il+ le in

Net@%&% +n e, +n" + , * e" t% tr+ 7 "% n e er % e ent th+t % *rre" in the

i *l+ti%n$ =%r in t+n e, hen +n +&ent re re entin& +n in"i i"*+l +nn%t %l e +

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+rti *l+r r% le , the C% +n" Center re+" K %*l"n t %l e % le# r% le , +n"

+ %r"in& t% the r*le + i&ne" t% th+t +rti *l+r +&ent, the + + ilit % the +&ent

h%*l" "e re+ e$ .n%ther e#+ le %*l" e K %*l" %l e e"i* r% le , here the

+ + ilit i e# e te" t% in re+ e$ / re+"in& thi , +n" +l % l%%7in& +t the +&ent , the

re e+r her %*l" ee i h+t + h+ enin& + + t*+ll + +t h ith h+t + %"e"$

• 8se unit testin& : In thi re e+r h, thi i "%ne e +r+tin& the Net@%&% r%&r+ int%

* - e ti%n % %"e, tr+n errin& th% e +rti *l+r line % %"e int% + e +r+te ile +n"

+7in& *re th+t e+ h +t h % %"e r*n ith%*t +n err%r$

4. Conclusion

hi re e+r h "%e n%t +tte t t% "e el% + *ll % rehen i e +n" "et+ile" %"el % h%in"i i"*+l thin7, eh+ e +n" + t$ S* h % le#it i +l % t i % i le t% *n"er t+n" in re+l

li e, let +l%ne in + i *l+te" %"el$ ;% e er, h+t thi re e+r h r% i"e i + e+n t% &+in

in i&ht %n + +ll %rti%n % in"i i"*+l er %n+litie , %n h% in"i i"*+l ith "i erent

hil% % hi +l r% ile "e+l ith % le# r% le $ It h+ een e t+ li he" +n "i erent

t*"ie ( %th + +"e +n" in"* tr -%riente") th+t the + li +ti%n % er %n+lit r% ile

in re+ e the r%"* ti it % the ir , + ell + the r%"* ti it +n" +ti + ti%n % the

in"i i"*+l$ Sel -+ +rene i +n e#tre el * e *l +n" ne e +r %n e t t% h+ e ithin +n

in"i i"*+l li e$ I e +re + +re % %*r re"i % iti%n , %*r %rl" ie , %*r inner %rl", e ill*n ti%n etter in the %*ter %rl"$ E t+ li hin& hil% % hi +l r% ile % in"i i"*+l ill +l %

r% e t% e * e *l hen it % e t% inter+ ti%n ith %ther e% le, *il"in& te+ et $ It i

le+r th+t in"i i"*+l ith ert+in re"i % iti%n ill %r7 etter ith in"i i"*+l h% % e

the + e %rl" ie $ .&ent-/+ e" %"elin& h+ een h% en + +n + r% ri+te t%%l %r thi

re e+r h, in e it % e e ert+in h+r+ teri ti th+t +re nee"e" in the%r e# l%r+ti%n, +

ell + &+inin& in i&ht %n % le# it*+ti%n $

he %n e t*+l, eth%"%l%&i +l +n" r+ ti +l i li +ti%n % the re e+r h r% i"e +ri%*

% %rt*nitie %r *t*re re e+r h t% i $ One * h *t*re re e+r h +re+ i tr+n errin& the

re e+r h t% +n e iri i t +r+"i& +n" e iri +ll +n+l >in& the r% ile th+t h+ e een

"e el% e", r% % e" +n" e# l%re"$ he r% ile here re ente" +re "%ne % in + r+ti%n+li t

+nner, thr%*&h the * e % + % *ter i *l+ti%n, +n" +n + e ent %n h% t% e iri +ll

te t the PPI i +rt % + %r7 in r%&re $ he initi+l te t+7en %r thi i the % er+ti%n+li>+ti%n

% the r% ile $ hi i "%ne "e el% in& + ?*e ti%nn+ire (PPI-G) in %r"er t% te t +n" +li"+te

the "i en i%n , + ell + the r% ile the el e $ St+te ent * h + KIn %r"er t% + e t

% ethin& t% e tr*e, I %*l" nee" t% h+ e + t*+l r%% +n" KI li7e t% e %r&+ni>e" +n" l+n

+he+" +re * e" t% "eter ine the in"i i"*+l re"i % iti%n +n" rele +nt r% ile $ hr%*&h

+ r% ri+te "e %&r+ hi t*"ie , r% ile % "i erent &r%* * h + + +"e i $

r+ titi%ner +n e "eter ine"$ =*rther %re, r% ile % in"i i"*+l h% +re in "i erent

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r% e i%n ( * h + en&ineer , +n+&er , le+"er , ienti t , et $) +n e e# l%re"$ =%r

in t+n e, the PPI %*l" e + lie" t% le+"er +n" "i erent le+"er hi t le $ hi *t*re

re e+r h + % * %n + t*rin& the *n"erl in& hil% % hi +l + * ti%n % le+"er +n"

le+"er hi $ Sin e le+"er hi i + t% i th+t h+ een re e+r he" a nauseam ith n% % %n

+&ree ent ithin le+"er hi h%l+r %n h+t le+"er hi the%rie +re i&ni i +nt, +n" hi h

%ne re ent + h%li ti i t*re, * in& the hil% % hi +l "i en i%n % the PPI %*l" ill +

i&ni i +nt &+ in the %" % 7n% le"&e, + ell + %li"i in& the + li + ilit % the

"e el% e" r% ile $ It i h% e" th+t the PPI-G %*l" e * e" in "i erent %nte#t $ ;+ in& +

te te" +n" reli+ le t%%l t% + e the hil% % hi +l r% ile % +n in"i i"*+l ert+inl %*l" h+ e

+ i&ni i +nt i + t %n +n % erl+ in& %"ie % 7n% le"&e$

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