11/16/041 Using Smart Growth and Growth Visioning in Developing a Regional Growth Forecast By Seong-Youn Simon Choi, Ph. D. Southern California Association.

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Using Smart Growth and Growth Visioning in Developing a Regional Growth Forecast

BySeong-Youn Simon Choi, Ph. D.

Southern California Association of Governments

Presented at the International Solar Cities Congress 2004, Daegu, Korea, November 14-18, 2004.

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What is New?

• Growth Vision Forecast: Trend + Local Input (Local Vision) + “Regional Vision”– Growth visioning: survey and public

workshops. – Develop growth vision principles & smart

growth strategies

• A concrete growth forecast

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Purpose of Study• Reviews macro forces behind the movement

of smart growth and growth visioning in urban planning and development.

• Assesses the role of smart growth and growth visioning in developing a regional forecast.

• Discusses some of the technical and policy challenges in developing a regional “vision” growth forecast.

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Federal Role• Two major forces have driven the federal government's

role in regional transportation: transportation funding and planning, and air quality protections.

• Transportation funding and planning is mandated by the ISTEA (now TEA-21) and overseen by U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT), while air quality efforts are guided by the Clean Air Act and overseen by the Environmental Planning Agency (EPA).

• The two efforts, once separate, are now coordinated on a variety of levels. With the introduction of the ISTEA in 1991 and the CAAA in 1990, the regional planning process has significantly changed.

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Comparison of Planning Aspects between Before and After ISTEA

Aspect Status Quo ISTEA Goals 1. General MPO role Removed from major

decisions Broker, leader, consensus builder

2. Long range plan Single scenario Focus on 1 or 2 modes

Alternative scenarios Multi-modal and inter-modal. Focus on system performance. Incorporates 15 factors.

3. Links between RTP and TIP

Not clearly established Clearly established. TIP – strategic management tool.

4. Financially constrained Plan/TIP

No. Yes.

5. Public role Participation Representation

Limited—e.g., hearings on draft Plan/TIP. Limited

Actively encouraged. Early and substantive. Broad- public/private sector, citizens

(Lyons, 1994, p.25).

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Regional Initiative & Networking

• Growth visioning: Portland, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Chicago have used this growth visioning to successfully get in front of growth.

• Smart Growth Network (1996): the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency joined with several non-profit and government organizations to form the Smart Growth Network (SGN). The Network was formed in response to increasing community concerns about the need for new ways to grow that boost the economy, protect the environment, and enhance community vitality.

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Growth Visioning

• Survey

• Public Workshops

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•187 Cities

•38,000 square miles

•6 Counties

•10th largest economy in the world

•18 million people

•Projected to add 5 million more in next 25 years

The SCAG RegionThe SCAG Region

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Project Vision: To Plan Without BoundariesPortland, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Chicago have used this process to successfully get in front of growth

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Survey• Concerns:

– Traffic congestion (86%),

– Air pollution (84%),

– Water/grounded water pollution (83%)

• Policy options: – Planning for growth (78%),

– High density newer neighborhoods with careful design (72%),

– Redevelop blighted areas in existing neighborhoods (71%).

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Public Workshops

• 13 workshops, more than 1000 participants

• Growth game: Participants build scenarios

Public Workshops:Participants build scenarios

The Workshop Game PiecesOverview

e.g. Pasadena, Santa Monica

City

Per Chip – 360 Acres55 Housing Units/Acre100 Jobs/Acre

3/43/4milemile

e.g. Brea, Ventura, Orange, San Juan Capistrano

Town

Per Chip – 360 Acres25 Housing Units/Acre20 Jobs/Acre

3/43/4milemile

e.g. South Coast Plaza, Ontario Mills

Activity Center

Per Chip – 360 Acres15 Housing Units/Acre15 Jobs/Acre

3/43/4milemile

Employment District

Per Chip – 360 Acres75 Jobs/Acre

3/43/4milemile

Residential Subdivision

Single Family, 7-10 Units per

Acre

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The Workshop Exercise:

Starter Chip Sets

The Workshop Exercise:

Starter Chip Sets

Four different Four different ways to ways to

accommodate accommodate projected projected

growth for the growth for the regionregion

#2

116 Chips116 Chips

#3

127 Chips127 Chips

#4

164 Chips164 Chips

#1

103 Chips103 Chips

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Public Workshops

• Presentations of alternative growth scenarios• Analysis of scenarios established four overriding

growth vision principles and smart growth strategies

• Positive result: demonstrated the importance of transportation corridors.

• Challenging issue: balance small area growth allocation with a regional perspective.

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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies

MOBILITYLocate new housing near existing jobs and new jobs near existing housing

Encourage transit-oriented development

Promote a variety of travel choices

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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies

LIVABILITYPromote infill development and redevelopment to revitalize existing communities

Promote mixed-use development

Promote walkable communities

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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies

PROSPERITYProvide, in each community, a variety of housing types to meet the needs of all income levels

Support growth of industries that offer high-paying jobs and allow upward mobility

Ensure environmental justice

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Growth Vision Principles and Strategies

SUSTAINABLITY

Preserve rural, agricultural and environmentally sensitive areas

Focus development in urban centers

Develop strategies to accommodate growth that use resources efficiently, eliminate pollution and reduce waste

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Scenario Planning• Integrated land use – transportation analysis• Two “Bookends” along with several traditional

scenarios• PILUT 1 – Infill Scenario• PILUT 2 – Fifth Ring Scenario

• Hybrid “Growth Vision” Scenario – Built From: • Survey • Public Workshops• PILUT Scenarios

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PILUT 1 ScenarioIncremental Growth

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PILUT 2 ScenarioIncremental Growth

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Evaluation of Growth Scenarios

• Five growth scenarios

• Two transportation networks: baseline & plan.

• Use performance results of growth scenarios. mobility, air quality, energy consumption.

• Preferred growth alternative.

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Benefits of Smart Growth on TAE Measures

TAE Measures Baseline* Smart Growth** Change*** % Change**** Benefits of Smart Growth*****

Transportation

Transit (Person Trips) (millions) 1.49 2.22 0.73 48.8% 24.2%

Avg Trip Length: Home-to-Work Travel Time (minutes) 25.9 20.6 -5.3 -20.5% 15.3%

Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) (millions) 488.76 459.69 -29.07 -5.9% 29.7%

Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) (millions) 15.36 13.09 -2.27 -14.8% 16.3%

Vehicle Hours Delay (VHD) (millions) 3.69 2.13 -1.56 -42.2% 11.9%

Air Quality (tons)

ROG 87.3 82.1 -5.2 -5.9% 39.2%

CO 659.3 608.2 -51.2 -7.8% 26.0%

NOx 135.9 133.6 -2.3 -1.7% 64.2%

PM10 24.4 22.4 -2.0 -8.2% 23.4%

SOx 3.0 2.8 -0.2 -6.8% 25.0%

Energy Consumption (1000 gallons)

Gasoline 24569 22364 -2206 -9.0% 22.6%

11/16/04 30The 2004 SCAG Regional Transportation

Plan

Household Growth 2010-2030 (without Growth Vision)

11/16/04 31The 2004 SCAG Regional Transportation

Plan

Household Growth 2010-2030 (with Growth Vision)

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Housing Sprawl at the RSA Level

0.68 0.68

0.570.54

0.52

0.46

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Concentration Centralization

1970 2000 2030

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Employment Sprawl at the RSA Level

0.720.74

0.610.590.57

0.51

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Concentration Centralization

1970 2000 2030

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Urban Sprawl at the TAZ Level

% ChangeIndicators 2000 2030 2000-2030

Housing Concentration 0.3842 0.3700 -3.7%Centralization 0.4669 0.4713 1.0%

Employment Concentration 0.7146 0.6810 -4.7%Centralization 0.6183 0.5434 -12.1%

Note: Concentration is measured using Delta index (Hoover, 1941; Duncan et al, 1961),

Centralization is measured using Absolute Centralization index (Massey & denton, 1988)

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Smart Growth at the TAZ Level

% ChangeIndicators 2000 2030 2000-2030

Housing Mixed Land Use 0.4669 0.4713 1.0%Clustering* 1.2340 1.2106 -1.9%

Employment Mixed Land Use 0.3321 0.3387 2.0%Note: Mixed land use is measured using Interaction index (Massey & Denton, 1988), clustering (compact development) is measured using Spatial Proximity index (White, 1986).* Clustering index applies to both housing and employment.

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Findings• Federal role (CAAA, ISTEA) and regional

initiative (growth visioning) are important.– Local implementation strategies (2% strategies) will

play a decisive role. • Growth visioning was effective as an educational

and learning tool. • Beneficial effects of smart growth on TAE

measures• Small effects of smart growth on the regional

spatial structure. Sprawl continues with smart growth.

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Technical and Policy Challenges• Growth visioning: how to balance small area

growth allocation with a regional perspective• Development of a regional growth forecast: not a

simple application of technical forecasting method, but a combination of techniques & professional judgments. – Hard to translate vision into numbers due to judgmental

elements.– Hard to duplicate the land use modeling process

(30m*30m grid cell).– Is forecasting art?

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Technical and Policy Challenges

• Tremendous spatial changes are not expected with smart growth:– Vision seems an extension (a slight

modification) of baseline trends with local visions.

– Smart growth is a “small scale”.– Do we need a “regional scale” smart growth?