111 TAG Meeting December 16, 2010 ElectriCities Office Raleigh, NC.

111

TAG MeetingDecember 16, 2010

ElectriCities Office

Raleigh, NC

222

TAG Meeting Agenda1. Administrative Items – Rich Wodyka

2. 2010 – 2020 Collaborative Plan Study Results – Kai Zai

3. Regional Studies Update – Bob Pierce

4. EISPC Report – Kim Jones

5. 2011 Study Scope – Denise Roeder

6. 2011 TAG Work Plan – Rich Wodyka

7. TAG Open Forum – Rich Wodyka

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2010-2020 Collaborative Plan Draft Report

Kai Zai

Progress Energy

444

Base Reliability Study– Year 2015 and 2020

Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios Climate Change Legislation Scenarios

– Coal Generation Retirements– Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind Sensitivity

Outline of Studies

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2015 & 2020 Summer No new issues identified in Eastern or Western

Areas- Projects already in the Collaborative Plan to

address network loadings

2015-16 Winter No new Issues identified in Western Area

Base Reliability Results – Progress Energy

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2015 & 2020 Summer No new issues identified

- Projects already in the Collaborative Plan to address network loadings

2015-16 Winter No new Issues identified

Base Reliability Results - Duke

7777

Projects shifting within planning window:

London Creek 230 kV line (for loss of parallel line)- Deferred from 2015 to 2020

Projects now outside of planning window:

Fisher 230 kV line (for loss of parallel line)- Deferred from 2017

Base Reliability Results - Duke

8888

Request SOURCE SINK MW Service Dates

1 Cleveland Co. site CPLE 1000 1/12 to 1/22

2 Cleveland Co. site DVP 1000 1/12 to 1/22

3 SOCO DVP 1000 1/12 to 1/22

4 SOCO CPLE 1000 1/12 to 1/22

Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios

9999

Request 1- Cleveland County - CPLE 1000 MW

Progress Energy

- Construct Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV 3rd Line (14 Miles)

Duke

- No previously unidentified issues


10101010

Request 2- Cleveland County- DVP 1000 MW

Progress Energy


Duke



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Request 3- SOCO-DVP 1000 MW

Progress Energy


Duke



12121212

Request 4- SOCO-CPLE 1000 MW

Progress


Duke



13

Import into Progress

Cleveland CountyDate Needed ($M)

Southern CompanyDate Needed ($M)

To accept Transmission Service Request

$203-4 Years after TSR Start

Date$20

Import into Dominion

Cleveland CountyDate Needed ($M)

Southern Company Date Needed ($M)

2 Years after TSR Start Date $20 --- ---

2015 Enhanced Access Scenarios Studied1000 MW Imports to Progress East or Dominion

Primary Alternative Investigated

Issue IdentifiedLead Time

(years)

Construct Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV 3rd Line

Overloads of the Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV Black and White Lines

4

14141414

Climate Change Legislation Scenarios

Coal Generation Retirements

Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind Sensitivity Study

15151515


Progress Energy Wayne County & Sutton Combined Cycles

- Coal plant replacements were modeled- Scheduled for 2013 and 2014, respectively

Cape Fear & Weatherspoon Coal Plants- Retirements built into models- Scheduled for 2014

16161616

Duke

Retirements

Buck Steam Station (256 MW)

Lee Steam Station (370 MW)

Riverbend Steam Station (266 MW)


17171717

Duke No previously unidentified issues


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Approximately 3,000 MW total capacity Injected at three locations on Progress system

MW allocation – 60% Duke, 40% Progress

NC Off- Shore Wind Sensitivity Scenario

Injection Point On-peak MW(30-40% CF)

Off-peak MW(90% CF)

Wilmington 125 375

Morehead City 675 1,500

Bayboro 425 1,125

TOTAL 1,225 3,000

NC Off-Shore Wind- Strawman Proposal

FERC Order No: 630The original slide contains

Critical Energy Infrastructure Informationand is not available to the Public

20202020

Hypothetical NC Off-Shore Wind Sensitivity Scenario Original Strawman

- NCTPC starting point in evaluating off-shore wind

- Based on UNC Report

Four Options were developed by PWG

- Based on power flow results and analysis

- Assessment of costs versus benefits

Solving transmission constraints for off-peak loads with wind capacity factor at 90% also solved on-peak transmission problems with lower wind capacity factors

21212121

Duke

No previously unidentified issues

NC Off- Shore Wind Results

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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind Options Summary

Option 1A: 3,000 MW - Estimated Cost $1.195 B- 230 kV wind connection to network

Option 1B: 3,000 MW - Estimated Cost $1.310 B- 500 kV wind connection to network

Option 2: 2,500 MW - Estimated Cost $1.155 B- 500 MW reduction of output doesn’t create a breakpoint- Rebuilding 2-230 kV Lines is only difference from 1A

Option 3: 2,000 MW - Estimated Cost $0.525 B- Significant breakpoint in transmission upgrades- Removed 500 kV Infrastructure- Construct Greenville West -New Bern 230kV Line

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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 1A

Total Wind Power Injection: 3000 MW

Southport 375 MW

Sutton

Jacksonville Morehead 1500 MW

Havelock

New Bern

Bayboro1125 MW

Wommack

Wake

Cumberland

230 KV500 KV

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Line/Equipment NameVoltage

(kV)Est. Mileage

(Miles)Est. Cost

(M)

Brunswick area –Sutton 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90

Sutton area 230 kV Switching Station 230 $15

Jacksonville – Sutton 230 kV line 230 45 $90

Havelock -Morehead City area 230 kV lines 230 60 (3 lines) $90

Havelock – New Bern 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90

Bayboro – New Bern 230 kV lines 230 50 (2 lines) $75

Bayboro – Bayboro Tap 230 kV line 230 5 $10

Aurora- Greenville 230 kV line partial rebuild 230 20 $20

Aurora-New Bern 230 kV rebuild 230 20 $20

New Bern 500KV Substation w/ 2 Banks 500 $60

Womack 500 kV Switching Station 500 $30

New Bern – Wommack 500 kV lines 500 70 (2 Lines) $175

Wake-Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195

Cumberland-Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195

SVC at Wommack 500 $40

Totals 580 Miles $1,195 M

Option 1A: Wind Generation Output 3,000 MW

252525

Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 1B

Southport 375 MW

Sutton

JacksonvilleMorehead 1500 MW

New Bern

Bayboro1125 MW

Wommack

Cumberland

230 KV500 KV

Wake


2626

Option 1B: Wind Generation Output 3,000 MW

Line/Equipment Name Voltage(kV)

Est. Mileage(Miles)

Est. Cost (M)

Brunswick –Sutton area 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90

230 kV Switch Station at Sutton 230 $15

Sutton – Jacksonville 230 kV line 230 45 $90

Morehead City area– New Bern 500 kV lines 500 100 (2 lines)

$250

Bayboro – New Bern 500 kV lines 500 50 (2 lines) $125

New Bern 500KV Substation w/ 2 Banks 500 $60

Womack 500 kV Switch Station 500 $30


Wake- Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195




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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 2

Southport 375 MW

Sutton

Jacksonville Morehead 1250 MWHavelock

New BernBayboro875 MW

Wommack

Wake

Cumberland

230 KV500 KV


2828

Option 2: Wind Generation Output 2,500 MW


(kV)Est. Mileage

(Miles)Est. Cost

(M)

Brunswick–Sutton area 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90




Havelock – New Bern 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90

Bayboro – New Bern 230 kV line 230 50 (2 lines) $75


New Bern 500 kV Substation w/ 2 Banks 500 $60

Womack 500 kV Switching Station 500 $30


Wake-Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195




292929

Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 3

Southport 375 MW

Sutton

Jacksonville Morehead 1000 MWHavelock

New BernBayboro625 MW

Greenville West

230 KV500 KV


3030

Option 3: Wind Generation Output 2,000 MW


(kV)Est. Mileage

(Miles)Est. Cost

(M)

Brunswick area –Sutton 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90




Havelock – New Bern 230 kV line 230 30 $60

Bayboro – New Bern 230 kV line 230 25 $50


Greenville West- New Bern 230 kV line 230 40 $80

New Bern SVC 230 $40

Totals 265 Miles $525 M

31313131

Comparison to Previous Collaborative Transmission Plan

2009 Plan 2010 Plan

Number of projects with an estimated cost of $10 million or more each

18 14

Total estimated cost of Plan $595M $473 M

3232323232

Major Projects in 2010 Plan

Reliability Project TO Planned I/S Date

Asheville-Enka 230 kV line, Convert 115 kV line; &

Asheville-Enka 115 kV, Build new lineProgress

December ’10

December ’12

Rockingham-West End 230 kV East line Progress June ’11

Ft Bragg Woodruff Street-Richmond 230 kV Line

Progress June ‘11

Pleasant Garden-Asheboro 230 kV line, replace Asheboro 230 kV xfmrs

Progress

& Duke

June ’11

Clinton-Lee 230 kV line Progress December ’11

Brunswick 1 - Castle Hayne 230kV Line, Construct New Cape Fear River Crossing

Progress June ’12

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Import Scenarios

Major Projects in 2010 Plan (Continued)


Jacksonville Static VAR Compensator Progress June ‘13

Folkstone 230/115kV Substation Progress June ’13

Harris-RTP 230 kV line Progress June ’14

Greenville-Kinston Dupont 230 kV line Progress June ’17

Durham-RTP 230kV Line, Reconductor Progress June ’20

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Import Scenarios

Major Projects in 2010 Plan (Continued)


Sadler Tie-Glen Raven Main Circuit 1 & 2 (Elon 100 kV Lines), Reconductor

Duke June ‘11

Reconductor Caesar 230 kV Lines(Pisgah Tie-Shiloh Switching Station #1 & #2)

Duke June ‘13

Reconductor London Creek 230 kV Lines(Peach Valley Tie-Riverview Switching Station #1 & #2)

Duke June ‘20

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Bob Pierce

Duke Energy

Regional Studies Reports

373737

Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC)

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EIPC background

EIPC Objectives1. Integration (“roll-up”) and analysis of approved regional plans

2. Development of possible interregional expansion scenarios to be studied

3. Development of interregional transmission expansion options

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EIPC Structure

39

Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC)

(Open Collaborative Process)

EIPC Analysis TeamPrincipal InvestigatorsPlanning Authorities

Steering Committee

Stakeholder Work Groups

Executive Leadership

Technical Leadership &

Support Group

Stake-holder Groups

States Provinces FederalOwners

OperatorsUsers

…

404040

EIPC Focus between now and end of 2012 Perform analysis under the Department of Energy Topic A award for

Transmission Planning Analysis for the Eastern Interconnection Phase I - between now and October, 2011

– Integrate existing regional plans - Perform roll-up of existing 2020 transmission plans

– Production cost analysis of regional plans - Perform production costing analysis of existing 2020 transmission plans

– Develop macroeconomic scenarios on possible futures and perform analysis on these futures

– Agree on expansion scenarios for Interregional Transmission Options development in Phase II

Phase II - October, 2011 to Late 2012– Develop transmission expansion options, along with associated

costs, for agreed on expansion scenarios

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EIPC Current ActivitiesPlanning Authorities

Have refined roll-up of existing regional transmission plans detailing modeling assumptions for the 2020 summer model in response to Stakeholder concerns

Rerunning analysis of bulk energy transfers between markets/regions on the 2020 summer model

Working with CRA on economic analysis methods and populating databases with additional data required

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EIPC Current ActivitiesStakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) 12/13, 14

meeting in Charlotte Broad representation of interests – states,

NGO’s, TO’s, GO’s, End-users …. Developing a common language and

understanding of expectations Difficult process to work through, negotiation

between multiple stakeholder groups Breakout sessions

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EIPC Current ActivitiesSSC 12/13, 14 meeting in Charlotte Roll-up model and transfer capability results Baseline model – negotiated criteria for inclusion

of generation & transmission facilities, petitioning GE MAPS analysis and transfer capability

analysis of Baseline model Reached agreement on 8 future scenarios and

sensitivities to be modeled in NEEM Analysis (pipes & bubbles)

4444

EIPC Current Activities Business as Usual Federal Carbon Constraint - national implementation Federal Carbon Constraint - state/regional

implementation Energy Efficiency/Demand Response/SmartGrid National RPS - Top down national implementation National RPS - state/regional implementation Nuclear Resurgence Combined Federal Climate and Energy Policy

4545

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Report on Eastern Interconnection States

Planning Council (EISPC)

4747

Kim Jones

NC Utility Commission

4848

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http://www.eipconline.com/

505050

Southeast Inter-Regional Planning Process (SIRPP)

Update

515151

Requests selected at the October 2010 meeting

2010 series MMWG 2016 and 2021 Summer Peak cases updated to reflect 2016 and 2020 Summer Peaks

SIRPP

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2010-2011 SIRPP Study Requests

HVDC Injection in Duke to VACAR – 3000 MW (2016)

SCRTP to PJM West – 1000 MW (2016)

SCRTP to TVA – 1000 MW (2016)

PJM West to VACAR – 1000 MW (2016)

PEC to the Southeast – 2000 MW (2020)

SIRPP

545454

HVDC Injection in Duke to VACAR – 3000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Generation to Generation Source: New generator interconnecting to a new

500 kV transmission line that connects to the following Duke lines:– Asbury line (A new substation on the Oconee – Newport

500 kV transmission line)– South Mountain line (A new substation on the Jocassee –

Cliffside 500 kV transmission line) Sink: Generation within VACAR allocated to

participating transmission owners in VACAR

SIRPP

555555

SCRTP to PJM West – 1000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Generation to Load Source: Generation within the SCRTP

– Generation to source the transfer will be based upon the load serving ratio of SCE&G and SCPSA provided that there is sufficient existing generation “on-peak” to supply the transfer amount.

Sink: Uniform load scale of the PJM West area.

SIRPP

565656

SCRTP to TVA – 1000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Generation to Generation Source: Generation within the SCRTP

– Generation to source the transfer will be based upon the load serving ratio of SCE&G and SCPSA provided that there is sufficient existing generation “on-peak” to supply the transfer amount.

Sink: Generation within TVA’s area.

SIRPP

575757

PJM West to VACAR – 1000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Load to Generation Source: Uniform load scale of the PJM West area. Sink: Generation within VACAR.

– This transfer will be allocated to the participating transmission owners in VACAR by the ratio of their load to the total load of all of the participating transmission owners in VACAR.

SIRPP

58

PEC to the Southeast – 2000 MW (2020) Type of Transfer: Generation to Generation Source: Five injection points of 400 MW each of

off-shore wind at substations in the Carolinas Sink: Generation within the Southeast Sub-Region

of SERC (1700 MW) and the FRCC (300 MW) allocated to transmission owners in the Southeast Sub-Region based upon the ratio of their load to the total load included in the sink and in the FRCC that have ties to Southern Balancing Authority.

5858

SIRPP

595959

http://www.southeastirpp.com/

606060

NCTPC/PJM Interface Meeting

616161

RTEP Backbone Update TRAIL – Trans-Allegheny Line, on schedule for 2011 PATH – Potomac-Appalachian Line, now 2015 MAPP – Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway, 2 HVDC lines

across onto Delmarva Peninsula by 2015. Sets up accepting wind farm energy off of Indian River

2nd 500/230 kV bank at Clover by 2015, meets reliability and market efficiency needs.

NCTPC/PJM

626262

NCTPC/PJM

TRAIL PROJECT

636363

NCTPC/PJM

PATH PROJECT

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NCTPC/PJM

MAPP PROJECT

656565

NCTPC/PJM

CLOVER 500/230 TRANSFORMER PROJECT

666666

NCTPC/PJM

RTEP Sensitivity Analysis Evaluated RPS requirements for each state and

interconnection queue requests for renewable sources.

Wind cluster off the coast of DE & NJ (~4%), on the Appalachian Mountains (~35%) and spread throughout PJM West (~60%).

Would need 12,000 MW by 2015 and 28,000 MW by 2020.

Traditional EHV system limitations across PA/MD/VA were observed.

6767676767

SERC Long-term Study Group(LTSG)

6868686868

Completed 2010 Study of 2016 Summer

Finalizing 2010 Series ERAG MMWG models

SERC LTSG

6969696969

2010 LTSG Study Evaluate inter-regional and inter-BA

transfer capability and base case reliability under N-1 conditions in 2016S

SERC LTSG

7070707070

DUKE/PEC Significant Facilities Everetts-Greenville 230 kV (DVP/PEC)

McGuire 500/230 kV Transformer (DUKE)

McGuire-Riverbend Steam Station 230 kV 1/2 (DUKE)

Wateree-Great Falls 100 kV 1/2 (DUKE)

Parkwood 500/230 kV Transformers (DUKE)

SERC LTSG

71717171

Request for Proposals Southeastern Offshore Wind Energy Infrastructure Project

72727272

Southeastern Offshore Wind Energy Infrastructure Project

SCOPE Funded by a DOE State Energy Program

grant

Administered by the Georgia Environmental Finance Authority (GEFA)

Facilitated by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE)

73737373


SCOPE Multi-phased project is a collaboration among

state, regional, and national agencies to create a thorough understanding of the infrastructure required to develop GW scale ocean renewable energy resources in an economic manner.

74747474


SCOPE

RFP - Phase 2A - Siting Analysis for Potential Offshore Wind Farm Development

RFP - Phase 2B - Offshore Wind Farm Electricity Generation Output Data

RFP - Phase 2C - Gigawatt-Scale Offshore Wind Farm Transmission

https://sites.google.com/site/requestforproposals2010/home/goog_1566558297

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https://sites.google.com/site/requestforproposals2010/

https://sites.google.com/site/requestforproposals2010/

7676

NERC Reliability Standards Update

7777

NERC Reliability Standards Update

FERC BES Final Rule

CIP-002-4 Critical Cyber Assets

PRC-023 Relay Loadability

FAC-013-2 Transfer Capability

TPL-001-2 and Footnote b

7878

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2011 NCTPC StudyScope

Denise Roeder

ElectriCities

808080

1. Assumptions Selected2. Study Criteria Established3. Study Methodologies Selected 4. Models and Cases Developed5. Technical Analysis Performed6. Problems Identified and Solutions Developed7. Collaborative Plan Projects Selected8. Study Report Prepared

Study Process Steps

818181

Study years- Short term (5 yr) and long term (10 yr)

base reliability analysis- Alternate model scenarios

Thermal power flow analysis - Duke & Progress contingencies- Duke & Progress monitored elements

• Internal lines• Tie lines

Collaborative Study Assumptions

828282

LSEs provide:– Inputs for load forecasts and resource

supply assumptions– Dispatch order for their resources

Area interchange coordinated between Participants and neighboring systems

Study Inputs

838383

TAG request to be distributed in early February, 2011

Requests can now include in, out and through transmission service

Enhanced Transmission Access Requests

848484

Base reliability case analysis– 2016 summer and winter– 2021 summer

An “All Firm Transmission” Case(s) will be developed which will include all confirmed long term firm transmission reservations with roll-over rights applicable to the study year(s).

Duke and Progress will each create their respective generation down cases from the common Base Case and share the relevant cases with each other.

2011 Study - Base

858585

Study Year – 2021

Resource Supply Options- Hypothetical Transfers from neighboring

control areas revisited every other year - Southern, SCE&G, SC, PJM, TVA

Other suggestions?

2011 Study – Sensitivities

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8787

Rich Wodyka

Independent Consultant

2011 TAG Work Plan

8888 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

Enhanced Access Planning Process

Coordinated Plan Development

Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions

Review Reliability Study Results

Evaluate current reliability problems and transmission upgrade plans

Propose and select enhanced access scenarios and interface

Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions

Review Enhanced Access Study Results

Reliability Planning Process

OSC publishes DRAFT Plan

TAG review and comment

Combine Reliability and Enhanced Results

2011 Overview Schedule

TAG Meetings

8989

January - February

Finalize 2011 Study Scope of Work- Receive final 2011 Reliability Study Scope for comment

- Review and provide comments to the OSC on the final 2011 Reliability Study Scope including the Study Assumptions; Study Criteria; Study Methodology and Case Development

- Receive request from OSC to provide input on proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces for study

- Provide input to the OSC on proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces for study

Proposed 2011 TAG Work Plan

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April - May TAG Meeting

Receive feedback from the OSC on what proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces will be included in the 2011 study

Receive a progress report on the 2011 Reliability Planning study activities and results

9191

June - July TAG Meeting 2011 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, PROBLEM

IDENTIFICATION and SOLUTION DEVELOPMENT– TAG will receive a progress report from the PWG on the

2011 study

– TAG will be requested to provide input to the OSC and PWG on the technical analysis performed, the problems identified as well as proposing alternative solutions to the problems identified

– Receive update status of the upgrades in the 2010 Collaborative Plan

– TAG will be requested to provide input to the OSC and PWG on any proposed alternative solutions to the problems identified through the technical analysis

9292

August - September TAG Meeting 2011 STUDY UPDATE

– Receive a progress report on the Reliability Planning and Enhanced Transmission Access Planning studies

2011 SELECTION OF SOLUTIONS– TAG will receive feedback from the OSC on any alternative

solutions that were proposed by TAG members

9393

December

2011 STUDY REPORT– Receive and comment on final draft of the 2011

Collaborative Transmission Plan report

TAG Meeting– Receive presentation on the draft report of 2011

Collaborative Transmission Plan – Provide feedback to the OSC on the 2011 NCTPC

Process– Review and comment on the 2012 TAG Work Plan

Schedule

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TAG Open Forum Discussion

111 TAG Meeting December 16, 2010 ElectriCities Office Raleigh, NC.

Documents

kv line

mw progress energy

transmission service

kv black

unidentified issuesdukeno

base reliability study

cleveland county cple

cleveland county dvp