1.10 Water resource management challenges and perspectives (P.Fröhle)

Water resource management challenges and

perspectives: the research and the municipal point of

view with a focus on Hamburg

Gabriele Gönnert

Hamburg Administration of Streets, Bridges and Waters

Peter Fröhle

Hamburg University of Technology

Water resource management challenges and

perspectives: the research and the municipal point of

view with a focus on Hamburg

Peter Fröhle

Institute of River and Coastal Engineering

Hamburg University of Technology

Elbe Estuary Overview

High precipitation

Discharge

- Length 142 km: Cuxhaven

to the weir in Geesthacht

- Width: 500 m to 17 km

- tributaries

- Consistent dike line

- Mean tidel range - Cuxhaven 3,0 m - St. Pauli 3,6 m - Hamburg to

Geesthacht 2,0 m

Hydrological System of a low lying area

Influence of Human Interventions:

Development of tidal range in Hamburg (Gauge St. Pauli)

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Strotmann & Fickert 2007

Challenges

• Wide low lying and flood prone areas

• Stormwater and Coastal Flooding

• Highly dynamic system

• Highly anthropogenic influenced system

• Climate Change will have negative effects on pluvial and fluvial floods

• Responsibilities lay at the federal state level (Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg)

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Hazards and Risk – technical aspects

• Hazards: – North Sea / Elbe Storm Events

– Rainfall and pluvial flooding

– Drainage of the hinterland

– Effects of human interventions

– Climate change related effects

– Natural variation and developments

• Risk – Hazards and hazard analyses

• Determination of probabilities and joint probabilities of loads

– Reliability analysis • Determination of reliability of constructions

– Hydrodynamic analysis • Consequences of failure, flooding of areas

– Consequences • Damage potential and damages

– Communication and public awareness

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Hazards and Risk – technical aspects

• Hazards: – North Sea / Elbe Storm Events

– Rainfall and pluvial flooding

– Drainage of the hinterland

– Effects of human interventions,

– Climate change related effects

– Natural variation and developments

• Risk – Hazards and hazard analyses

• Determination of probabilities and joint probabilities of loads

– Reliability analysis • Determination of reliability of constructions

– Hydrodynamic analysis • Consequences of failure, flooding of areas

– Consequences • Damage potential and damages

– Communication and public awareness

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• Statistical analyses of storm events

Processes – Risk Analysis

=

+

Storm surge = astronomical tide + wind set-up

Processes

• Parametrization of measured wind set-up

Parameters: i) maximum water level ii) fullness of set-up event iii) course of set-up event

Processes

Bi-variate statistical

analyses of

parameters using

Copula - functions

Set of events with

identic probability /

average return period

Processes

Bi-variate statistical

analyses of

parameters using

Copula - functions

Set of events for given

period as basis for

Monte-Carlo-Simulations

Processes

Determination

of storm events

Course of set-up

statistically independent

427

Processes

• Automated storm surge

generator

Processes

• Automated storm surge

generator

Processes

• Automated storm surge

generator

Elbe Estuary Overview

High precipitation

Discharge

- Length 142 km: Cuxhaven

to the weir in Geesthacht

- Width: 500 m to 17 km

- tributaries

- Consistent dike line

- Mean tidel range - Cuxhaven 3,0 m - St. Pauli 3,6 m - Hamburg to

Geesthacht 2,0 m

Hydrological System of a low lying area

Ongoing Research

• PEARL – Preparing for extreme and rare events in Coastal Areas (holistic approach – multiple risks)

– Case study Hamburg / Elbe

• Elbe Estuary Model – Operational model of the Elbe Estuary

» Online nowcast and forecast based on a combination of measurements, statistical and numerical methods

» Implementation of “official” water level forecast into the model

» Integration of dike failure and real time mesh generation

» …

– Risk analysis

» Statistical classification of storm surges and dike failure

» Influence of parallel precipitation events

» Expectation of damages and losses for defined areas

» Evacuation

» Effectiveness of adaptation measure

» …

– Input in other WPs (wave modelling and climate change related effects) and for other case studies (Rethimno – Sediment Transport and Coastal Protection )

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Elbe Estuary Model

• Model set up with KalypsoTelemac

• Telemac 2D

• Implementation of MOS-Prediction

• Breaching process of protection measures

• Flooding of the hinterland

• Damage assessment

• Measures to minimize risks

Water level boundary

Discharge boundary

Elbe Estuary Model

• Implementation of BSH - MOS-Prediction (Model Output Statistics)

• 9 Gauges along Elbe Estuary: • Cuxhaven

• Brunsbüttel

• Brokdorf

• Glückstadt

• Stadersand

• Schulau

• Hamburg, St.Pauli

• Zollenspieker

• Geesthacht

Web-View: MOS-water level prediction of Cuxhaven

Ongoing Projects

• StucK – Stormwater management of coastal urban areas (Hamburg)

under the influence of climate change – LSBG

– High temporal and spatial measurement and forecast of precipitation with

high intensity or high volume

– Implementation of rainfall-run-off model and management of centralized

and de-centralized storages and drainage elements

– Acutal and future management of extreme situations and influence of

different water levels influenced by tides, storm events and climate

change

– Interdependencies between flood protection and ecology

– Application of results to selected urban project areas => Dove-Elbe and

Kollau

– Economic analysis

– Dissemination

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Planned projects

• Life-cycle management of hydraulic engineering and water management constructions

– Actual and future design conditions

• Climate change

• Safety requirements

• Public requirements

• …

– Influence of maintennance

• Probabilistic approach of maitennance works

– Optimization of investment planning of flood protection and water management constructions

• Date of rehabilitation / investment

• Scale of rehabilitation / investment

• Statistical / probabilistic assessment

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Open questions

• Hazards: – North Sea / Elbe Storm Events

– Rainfall and pluvial flooding

– Drainage of the hinterland

– Effects of human interventions,

– Climate change related effects

– Natural variation and developments

• Risk – Hazards and hazard analysis

• Determination of probabilities and joint probabilities of loads

– Reliability analysis • Determination of reliability of constructions

– Hydrodynamic analysis • Consequences of failure, flooding of areas

– Consequences • Damage potential and damages

– Communication and public awareness

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Adaptation and Communication

23

Entwicklung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen

© Banksy

Development of

Solutions

Understanding and

Generation /

Dissemination of

Knowledge

Assessment,

Communication

and

Minimization of

Conflicts

Common Problem:

Adaptation to Climate

Change

KLEE

Learn and Action Alliances: Idea and Approach

Adaptation Measures Participation of stakeholders

• Less water in the river

– Retention of water in the upper catchment (Geest)

• Centralized solutions

• De-centralized solutions

– Retention of water in the lower catchment (Marsch)

• Centralized solutions

• De-centralized solutions

• More space for the water

– In front of the dike

• Deepening of the floodplains

• Regulation with the Barrier

– Behind the dike

• Overflow – polder and water management

• Storage in centralized polders

Adaptation measures

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Adaptation to Climate Change

• Moderator: Prof. Reincke (Hochschule 21 Buxtehude)

• Gemeinden, Städte und Landkreise

• Nds. Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft, Küsten und Naturschutz (NLWKN), Behörde für Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt

HH (BSU)

• Landwirtschaftskammer Niedersachsen (LWK)

• Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt Hamburg, Hamburg Port Authority

• Deichverband Altes Land, Unterhaltungsverband Altes Land, Unterhaltungs- und Landschaftspflegeverband Este

• NGOs (BI Este, BUND, Naturschutzbund Deutschland, Angler- und Naturschutzgemeinschaft, …)

• Privatpersonen (Landwirte, Anwohner…)

Learn and Action Alliances: Participants

Adaptation Measures Stakeholder Involvement

Lern- und Action Alliances: Structure

Anschauungs-beispiel

Lern-Teil Impulsvortrag

Aktions-Teil Workshop

LAA 1

Anpassungsmaßnahmen Einbeziehung der Akteure

Example

Learning

Presentations

Action

Workshops

Lern- und Aktionsallianzen:

Ablauf der Veranstaltungen

Exkursion Exkursion

Vorstellung möglicher

Maßnahmen

Impulsvorträge: Landwirtschaft,

Naturschutz, Unterhaltungsver-bände, Finanzier-ungs- und Förder-

möglichkeiten

Hydraulische Wirksamkeit, Maßnahmen-Priorisierung

Vorläufiger Maßnahmen-

katalog

Erarbeiten von konkreten

Maßnahmen-vorschlägen

Einschätzung der Maßnahmen hinsichtlich

ausgewählter Kriterien

Diskussion der Priorisierung

sämtlicher Maßnahmen

Diskussion vorläufiger

Maßnahmen-katalog

Gemeinsam erarbeiteter

Maßnahmen-katalog

LAA 1 LAAs 2+3 LAA 5 Projektabschlu

ss

KLEE-Partner Alle Teilnehmer

LAA 4

Gastvorträge

Series of Learn- and Action Alliances => Assessment and

Acceptance of Adaptation Measures

Anpassungsmaßnahmen Einbeziehung der Akteure

• Klimzug – Nord

– Organized by the research project / research institutions

– Goals

• Involvement of administrative sector in the research project

• Dissemination of results in the project and the administrative sector

• Discussion of research results with adminstrative sector

• Awareness of the administrative sector

• KLEE

– Inititated by the administrative body / water management board

– Goals

• Involvement of all adminstrative bodies into the development and assessment of measures

• Involvement of public into the development and assessment of measures

• Acceptance of solution

29

Development of LAA over Time and Projects

Thank you very much!

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