10/28/97 1 ATM and ADSL for High Speed ATM and ADSL for High Speed Internet Access Internet Access Luis Rodrigues ([email protected]) ITU - International Telecommunication Union IBC Asia Conference on “High Speed Internet Infrastructure ‘97” Singapore, Sydney November 1997
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10/28/971 ATM and ADSL for High Speed Internet Access Luis Rodrigues ([email protected]) ITU - International Telecommunication Union IBC Asia Conference.
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10/28/97 1
ATM and ADSL for High Speed ATM and ADSL for High Speed Internet AccessInternet Access
Data BasesInformation ServicesAudio-Visual ProductsFilmsMusicPhotos
Source: OECD
10/28/97 5
The IT
Path
The MobilePath
The Capaci
tyPath
The Conte
ntPath
TheInforma
tionSociety
TheInforma
tionSociety
Mainframe
PC MmediaPC
Fixed MobileAdvancedMobileServices
NarrowbandVoice
Narrowbanddata
ISDN&
Comp.
BroadBand
Paper ElectronicMessaging
On-line
The TV
Path
The PC
Path
The MobilePath
The Conte
ntPath
TVPayTV
InteractiveTV
PCNarrowbandInternet
BroadbandInternet
FixedLinePhone
MobileAdvancedMobileServices
PublicLibraries
InformationKiosksMessaging
Routes to the Information SocietyRoutes to the Information Society
Source: Spectrum Analysis
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Internet and the computing paradigmInternet and the computing paradigm
60-70 million Internet users Growth rate more than 100% per annum
• Traffic growth more than 200% Public Telephone Network: compound annual growth
of 5.4% (situation till 1985. Around 6-7% today)
Competitive market High stock capitalizations
Remarkable resilience Common standards, technical efficiency Pricing schemes
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Total Internet Services Opportunity by Year 2000
60%21%
9%7% 3%
Basic Access
Web hosting
Other value-addedservicesSystems Integration
SecurityBasic = $7.1 Biillion
1996 1998 20000%
50%
100%
1996 1998 2000
Internet Traffic Mix
Other
E-Mail and NewsFTP and Telnet
Static WWWDynamic WWW
Multimedia
Evolution of InternetEvolution of Internet
Source: The Yankee Group, 1996
(From top to bottom)
60%
21%
9%
7%
3%
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Evolution of Internet TelephonyEvolution of Internet Telephony
Now 1998 2010Source: MCI
Circuit Switched Telephony
Internet Telephony andRelated ServicesCurrent PC-PC
“IP Phone”
Projections by MCI:• From 1998, today’s PC-to-PC phone will be replaced by commercial grade Internet telephony.• By 2010, 50% of all telephony will be via what’s called today Internet telephony.
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The value chainThe value chain
ContentCreation
Content andservice
packaging
Presentationgateway
EndUser
Equipment and service supply
Content Providers, Advertisement Brokers , Merchants Telephone Companies Service Providers (ISPs, Value-added) Cable operators Satellite operators New entrants Vendors
Increase end-user offer and relations Capitalize on the access network Provide infrastructure Ammeliorate end-to-end scope (global connectivity) Move to ISP role Collaborate with vendors and content providers
Service Providers (ISPs, value-added) Prepare and adapt to market shifts (consolidation) Flexible packaging: users, services, information
New entrants Vendors
Mix, migrate and extend the Telecom and Internet bridge
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Pricing: TPricing: Telephone network vs the Internetelephone network vs the Internet
Public telephone Network More than 100 years Mix analog and digial
technologies Optimised for voice
(cicuit switched) Pricing: distance and
duration dependent Uses accounting rates at
international levels (settlements)
The Internet More than 10 years Digital, computer-to-
computer technology Optimised for data
(packet switched) Pricing: Flat-rate based
on circuit capacity No formal mechanisms
for revenue sharing (sender-keeps all)
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Pricing: Pricing: usage-based vs flat-rateusage-based vs flat-rate
Usage-based pricing works best for/when:
Scarce capacity Short transactions Want to minimize traffic Users are familiar with the
service Cope with traffic priorities Store-and-forward
communications
Flat-rate tariffs works best for/when:
Abundant capacity Long sessions Want to maximize usage Users are unfamiliar with
the service No priorities Real time
communications
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AlternativesAlternatives Internet collapse ?
Growing usage, investments, commitments Web functionality Electronic-commerce prospects
Internet fragmentation Intranets and extranets Parallel infrastructure with its own tariffs
Internet/Public telephone convergence Telco pricing moves towards flat-rate Internet moves towards usage-based Which becomes dominant ? Telcos ?
Internet/broadcasting convergence The advertising model is adopted to fund Internet
10/28/97 14
The convergence requirementsThe convergence requirements
Corporations, businesses, consumers, residential
PC / ServerNetwork
Computer
PC / NetworkComputer/ TV orconsumer device
Set-top boxor similar
Open Architecture(e.g. Internet)
Proprietary networks(e.g. CATV)
Broadcast systems(e.g. digital TV)
PSTN
ISDN
xDSL
WirelessCable
Cable Modem
Satellite
Digital TV
Usersandservices
User interfacesandterminals
Backboneinfrastructure
AccessNetwork
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Scenarios for the access networkScenarios for the access network
S e r v e r s
S e r v e r s
S w i t c h e dD ig i t a l A c c e s s
N e t w o r k
H y b r idF ib e r - C o a x
A c c e s s N e t w o r k
N a r r o w b a n dA c c e s s N e t w o r k
( e .g . d i a l - in )
N a r r o w b a n dA c c e s s N e t w o r k
( e .g . c e l l u l a r )
W ir e le s sA c c e s s N e t w o r k
( e .g . D B S )
S e r v e r s
S e r v e r s
S e r v e r s
S e r v e r s
S e r v e r s
S e r v e r s
T V D H T V T VD H T VO N U
P C x D S Lx D S L A c c e s s
A d a p t e r
In t e r n a t io n a l A T M B a c k b o n e s
N a t io n a l A T M B a c k b o n e s
M A N s a n d r e g io n a lA T M N e t w o r k s
M o d e mP o o l s
M o d e m
P C
D ia lu p
F ib e r -c o a xP la n t
F ib e r -c o a xP la n t
F ib e r
C o p p e r
P D CD H T V = D ig i t a l H o m e V id e o T e r m in a lO N U = O p t i c a l N e tw o r k U n i t
P D C = P e r s o n a l D ig i t a lC o m m u n ic a to r
L A N sP r iv a t e a n d C o r p o r a t e N e t w o r k s
P u b l i c D a t a N e t w o r k s( e .g . F r a m e R e l a y )
V D S L
V D S L
IS D N
T A
P C
W o r l d W i d e W e b
I n tern et / I n tran ets
10/28/97 16
Connectivity requirementsConnectivity requirements Large organizations
Very high speed 24 hours connectivity Small business (PMEs)
High speed, 8-24 hours/day, affordable cost “High bandwidth” residential users
High speed, 3-24 hours/day, low cost “Low bandwidth” residential users
Good speed, 1-3 hours/day, low cost
USER ACCESS SERVICES and NETWORKS
copper
fiber
coaxial (CATV)
satellite (wireless)
• Higher speeds• Minimum expenses• Increasing IT dependency
INTERNET
Public Networks (e.g. DATA, ATM, MANs, etc.)
Corporate Networks(e.g. Intranet)
Content, Broadcast, VoD
10/28/97 17
ADSL ProjectionsADSL ProjectionsxDSL Equipment and Revenue Projections