6/1/2010 1 Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level 28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 -1- SUN 2.1 + 2.5 (ID 666) International Disaster and Risk Conference, IDRC Davos 2010 Dr. Alexander Fekete Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany KritisKAT University of Würzburg Background 1: Multiple Risks Multiple hazard and risk assessment Contents: • Landslide and Earthquake • Landuse • Infrastructure 28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 -2- 2 Method: GIS, Remote Sensing
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100531 Davos WS Fekete - Global Risk Forum GRF Davos 01, 2010 · 28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 -44-– Transport. 6/1/2010 23 Hierarchy of needs Hierarchy of needs, Maslow (1943) ...
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6/1/2010
1
Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level
28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 1 -
SUN 2.1 + 2.5 (ID 666) International Disaster and Risk Conference, IDRC Davos 2010
Dr. Alexander FeketeFederal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany
KritisKAT
University of Würzburg
Background 1: Multiple Risks
Multiple hazard and risk assessment
Contents:• Landslide and Earthquake • Landuse• Infrastructure
28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 2 - 2
Method: GIS, Remote Sensing
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UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY –Institute for Environment and Human
Background 2: Social Vulnerability
Security
Social and Infrastructure Flood Vulnerability Index
Composed of:•Social Susceptibility / Capacities•Infrastructure density•Exposure to floods
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Method: Statistics, GISData: Census data of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany,Statistical extreme event scenarios of river-flood areas
Project KritisKAT
Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany 2009 - 2012
C t t
• A concept for criticality assessment• Criticality criteria
Deliverables
• Identification of infrastructures critical for society• Assessment of impacts due to outages
Criticality is revealed in case of a failureCriticality is revealed in case of a failure, when services and resources are suddenly not available anymore.
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Critical Mass
• First nuclear reactor in Germany: Haigerloch 1945
Lit. on interdependencies: Rinaldi et al. 2001, Rose 2007, MSB 2009
Value for multiple hazards?
Value for dependency?
Value for impacts?
Research questions
Value for dependencies?
Fig. Fekete 2010
Priorities by time
Normal case• Immediate dependency
(15 minutes) highest on:
Disaster case• Immediate dependency
(15 minutes) highest on: ( ) g– Emergency response – Health care– Electricity– ICT
( ) g– Emergency response – Health care– Electricity– ICT – Water– Stability of buildings– Media
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Media– Transport
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Hierarchy of needs
Hierarchy of needs, Maslow (1943)
1 Immediate survival needs
Air, Water and FoodHealth care Search and Rescue Buildings
• Inter-dependencies
•Priorities of society
•Timing
Buildings
2 Additional survival needs
EnergyInformationTransport
3 Immediate SecurityAdministration / Police
4 Financial Security
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4 Financial SecurityFinance, Insurance, Economy
5 CultureScienceCultural heritage
Protection goals
• "Sustainability" (Brundtland 1987)
Abstract societal goals
• Global warming: 2°C• Sea-level rise: x meters
Sustainability (Brundtland 1987)
• "Living with risk"
Climate Change scenarios
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• "The loss of public telecommunication services in a region could last for up to five days."(Direct.gov.uk 2009 Loss of utilities and communications in an emergency)
UK infrastructure scenarios
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Protection goals
Rule of thumb for a disaster (Broemme, THW): "4 days, 10% of the population of a region"
Possible ways to identify thresholds:
• Capacities (hours of emergency power, up to 100.000 customers, affected persons...)
• Tolerance (Zero mortality, not more than X days, up to
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x Bio.€, …)
• Calculations (damage X expected for 5 days every 10 years)
Dr. Alexander FeketeFederal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster AssistanceSection II.4 National Hazard Register; CIP ConceptsProvinzialstraße 9353127 Bonn Phone: 0228 99 550 3401Email: [email protected]
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Suggested Literature
• Critical Infrastructure Protection in Switzerland: http://www.bevoelkerungsschutz.admin.ch/internet/bs/en/home/themen/ski.html
• Tierney, Kathleen; Bruneau, Michel (2007). Conceptualizing and Measuring Resilience. A Key to Disaster Loss Reduction, TR News 250, 14-17
• Rinaldi, Steven M.; Peerenboom, James P.; Kelly, Terrence K. (2001). Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, Dec. 2001:11-25
• Rose, Adam (2007). Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions, Environmental Hazards 7 (2007) 383–398