10 fn s31

SmartGrids  –  The  Cynics'  view

Richard  ShockeyShockey  Consulting

2427  Silver  Fox  Lane

Reston,  VA  20291

[email protected]

Voice  +1  703  593  2683

Skype/AIM/LinkedIn/Facebook  –  rshockey101

What  are  we  talking  about  here?

• The SmartGrid is IMHO the complete redesign of thecommunications networks that control and deliverelectric power.

• There has been a substantial disinvestment in both theIT tools and communications networks that underlie thegrid.– 2003 collapse of the Grid in the North East a major wake up call

• Caused by communications system failure to anticipate load.

• The goal. Like the Internet .. A resilient network ofnetworks.

Why  ?

• Buildings  account  for  70  percent  of  all  U.S.electricity  consumption  and  40  percent  oftotal  U.S.  greenhouse  gas  emissions.

SmartGrids  Need

• Needs  for• IP  –  Yes  IP.• Authentication• Authorization• Security• Location

•    Confidentiality•    Integrity•    Availability•    Access  Control  &  Intrusiondetection•    Non_repudiation•    Role  base  access

What’s  the  big  rush?• Cars  ..can  you  remember  high

gas  prices?

• Most  of  the  energy  in  internalcombustion  engines  goes  outin  heat.

• Millions  of  hybrid  electricvehicles  all  plug  in  at  7  PM.  Thenew  DoS  Attack!

The  Locus  of  AttentionAdvanced  MeteringInfrastructure  (AMI)2.65  billion  existing  MetersWorldwide•  Only  ~  8%  Automated•Business,  Regulatory  andEnvironmental  Drivers  forAutomation•Multi  modal  interfaces

What  is  happening  now  ?• 3.2  Billion  spent  so  far.

• Where  are  the  standards  ??

– Sort  of  maybe  ..• C12.22

• IEC  61850

• National  Institute  of  Standards  andTechnology  (NIST)  coordinatingindustry  wide  effort.– http://www.nist.gov/smartgrid/

– http://www.oe.energy.gov/smartgrid.htm

What  they  are  not  telling  you.

• Less  than  .2  %  of  all  US  households  have  a  220  V  /  30Amp  circuit  in  their  garage.– Plug  my  car  in  where?

• Tell  you  kid  to  be  a  electrician!

• The  utilities  want  end  to  end  control  of  their  network.Its  their  cash  register.

• Telecos  fighting  uphill  battle  for  the  business• Spectrum  fights  only  the  beginning  (White  Spaces)

• Integrating  Wind  and  Solar  is  not  as  easy  as  it  soundsand  its  still  uneconomic.  (subsidies)

• Negative  spot  pricing• NIMBY  to  high  voltage  towers.

What  they  are  not  telling  you.

• Will  rate  payers  tolerate  SmartGrid  CAPEX  in  the  ratebase?• Will  rate  payers  tolerate  Time  of  Day  pricing?

• Is  there  any  savings  in  Home  Energy  Management?• The  Prius  effect  has  only  marginal  utility  (15%?)

• What  the  heck  is  home  energy  management?– 802.11x  networks  vs  802.15.4

• How  do  you  bridge  the  networks?– Zero  appreciable  progress  on  home  energy  management  standards

consolidation– At  least  5  competing  proposals

• Highly  entrenched  economic/technical  interests.

• Lack  of  Comparison  Data  appalling.– How  do  I  know  I’m  wasting  energy  if  I  cant  compare  Apples  to  Apples?

What  they  are  not  telling  you.

• Most  of  the  utilities  are  fundamentallyunaware  of  the  IPv6  issue.– Yes  I’ve  heard  ..”Well  we’ll  just  put  our  metersbehind  a  NAT”

• Who  owns  the  meter  data?– Can  you  spell  Google  or  Microsoft.– The  largest  potential  application  for  SAML  orOPEN  ID  ever.

Guess  where  we  are?

Conclusions• Market = BIG. Very Big.

– John Chambers has been seen to drool in the hallways.

• The Challenge of Scale = Technically Interesting

• Utilities think differently. “Reliability” is a mantra to them .– Intuitionally very conservative– FERC, the regulator has real teeth and power to fine the utilities.

• CAPEX is typically on 20 to 40 year depreciation cycles unlikethe technology industry.

• It’s “ the right thing to do”. ™ but I’m not holding my breath