1 Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Cotton Rice & Soybean Kim Anderson Oklahoma State University
1 Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Cotton Rice & Soybean Kim Anderson Oklahoma State University.
Jan 18, 2016
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1
Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Cotton Rice & Soybean
Kim Anderson
Oklahoma State University
2
Wheat
3
Wheat Planted/Harvested Acres
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mil
lio
n A
cres
Harvested Ac
Planted Ac
10-Yr avg 57.35-Yr avg 52.4
10-Yr avg 66.8 5-Yr avg 62.2
4
Wheat Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mil
lio
n A
cres
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Bil
lio
n B
ush
els
Harvested AcPlanted Ac
Production
10-Yr avg 57.3 5-Yr avg 52.4
10-Yr avg 66.8 5-Yr avg 62.2
10-Yr avg 2.2 5-Yr avg 2.1
5
Wheat Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
Mil
lio
n A
cres
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Bil
lio
n B
ush
els
Harvested Ac
Planted Ac
Production
10-Yr avg 66.8 5-Yr avg 62.2+5-Yr avg 59.6
10-Yr avg 57.3 5-Yr avg 52.4+5-yr avg 50.3
10-Yr avg 2.2 5-Yr avg 2.1+5-Yr avg 2.1
6
Wheat Prices
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
1983
/84
1985
/86
1987
/88
1989
/90
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/04
2005
/06
2007
/08
2009
/10
2011
/12
$4.55
10-Yr avg $3.32 5-Yr avg $2.86+5-Yr avg $3.09
7
Wheat Summary
Planted/harvested acres lower 62.2/59.6 52.4/50.3
Price trend slightly higher $2.86/$3.09 3.23
Loan rate set @ ~$2.75
Direct payment set @ 52¢
Target price set @ ~$3.92 65¢ $3.75
8
Corn
9
Corn Planted/Harvested Acres
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mil
lio
n A
cres
Harvested
Planted
10-Yr avg 70.15-Yr avg 71.0
10-Yr avg 77.4 5-Yr avg 78.3
10
Corn Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mill
ion
Acr
es
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Mill
ion
Bus
hels
HarvestedPlanted
Production
10-Yr avg 70.1 5-Yr avg 71.0
10-Yr avg 77.4 5-Yr avg 78.3
10-Yr avg 9.0 5-Yr avg 9.5
11
Corn Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1983/84 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 1995/96 1998/99 2001/02 2004/05 2007/08 2010/11
Mill
ion
Acr
es
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Mill
ion
Bu
shel
s
Planted
Production
Harvested
10-Yr avg 77.4 5-Yr avg 78.3+5-Yr avg 78.8
10-Yr avg 70.1 5-Yr avg 71.0+5-yr avg 71.9
10-Yr avg 9.0 5-Yr avg 9.5+5-Yr avg 10.3
12
Corn Prices
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$3.24
10-Yr avg $2.34 5-Yr avg $2.05+5-Yr avg $2.14
13
Corn Summary
Planted/harvested acres higher 78.3\78.871/71.9
Price trend slightly higher $2.05/$2.14$2.23
Loan rate set @ ~$1.95
Direct payment set @ 28¢
Target price set @ ~$2.63 40¢ $2.52
14
Sorghum
15
Sorghum Planted/Harvested Acres
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mill
ion
Ac
res
Planted
Harvested
10-Yr avg 10.0 5-Yr avg 9.5
10-Yr avg 8.7 5-Yr avg 8.0
16
Sorghum Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mill
ion
Ac
res
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Mill
ion
Bu
sh
els
Production
Planted
Harveste
10-Yr avg 555 5-Yr avg 497
10-Yr avg 8.7 5-Yr avg 8.0
17
Sorghum Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
1983/84 1987/88 1991/92 1995/96 1999/00 2003/04 2007/08 2011/12
Mill
ion
Acr
es
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Mill
ion
Bu
shel
s
Production
Planted
Harvested
10-Yr avg 10.0 5-Yr avg 9.5+5-Yr avg 9.5
10-Yr avg 8.7 5-Yr avg 8.0+5-yr avg 8.3
10-Yr avg 555 5-Yr avg 497+5-Yr avg 564
18
Sorghum Prices
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
1983/84 1987/88 1991/92 1995/96 1999/00 2003/04 2007/08 2011/12
$3.19
10-Yr avg $2.18 5-Yr avg $1.92+5-Yr avg $2.01
19
Sorghum Summary
Planted/harvested acres steady 9.5/9.5 8.0/8.3
Price trend slightly higher $1.92/$2.01$2.09
Loan rate set @ ~$1.90/Bu.
Direct payment set @ 35¢
Target price set @ ~$2.57 32¢ $2.47
20
Cotton
21
Cotton Planted/Harvested Acres
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Harvested
Planted
10-Yr avg 13.15-Yr avg 12.6
10-Yr avg 14.4 5-Yr avg 14.6
22
Cotton Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mill
ion
Acr
es
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
Mill
ion
Bal
es
Harvested
Planted
Production
10-Yr avg 13.1 5-Yr avg 12.6
10-Yr avg 14.4 5-Yr avg 14.6
10-Yr avg 17.8 5-Yr avg 17.2
23
Cotton Planted/Harvested Production
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Mill
ion
Acr
es
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
Mill
ion
Bal
es
Harvested
Planted
Production
10-Yr avg 14.4 5-Yr avg 14.6+5-Yr avg 14.6
10-Yr avg 13.1 5-Yr avg 12.6+5-yr avg 13.3
10-Yr avg 17.8 5-Yr avg 17.2+5-Yr avg 17.6
24
Cotton Prices
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1983
/84
1985
/86
1987
/88
1989
/90
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/04
2005
/06
2007
/08
2009
/10
2011
/12
75.4¢
10-Yr avg 56.55¢ 5-Yr avg 45.10¢+5-Yr avg 46.64¢
25
Cotton Summary
Planted/harvested acres stable 14.6/14.6 12.6/13.3
Price trend slightly higher 45.10¢/46.64¢51.4¢
Loan rate set @ 52¢
Direct payment set @ 6.67¢
Target price set @ 72.4¢ 13.73¢ 69.34 ¢
26
Rice
27
Rice Planted/Harvested Acres
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1982/83 1984/85 1986/87 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03
Mill
ion
Ac
res
Harvested
Planted
10-Yr avg 3.15-Yr avg 3.3
10-Yr avg 3.2 5-Yr avg 3.3
28
Rice Planted/Harvested & Production
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1982
/83
1984
/85
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
Mil
lio
n A
cres
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mil
lio
n C
wt
Harvested
Planted
Production
10-Yr avg 57.3 5-Yr avg 52.4
10-Yr avg 66.8 5-Yr avg 62.2
10-Yr avg 2.2 5-Yr avg 2.1
29
Rice Planted/Harvested & Production
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1983/84 1987/88 1991/92 1995/96 1999/00 2003/04 2007/08 2011/12
Mill
ion
Acr
es
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mill
ion
Cw
t
Harvested
Planted
Production
10-Yr avg 66.8 5-Yr avg 62.2+5-Yr avg 59.6
10-Yr avg 57.3 5-Yr avg 52.4+5-yr avg 50.3
10-Yr avg 2.2 5-Yr avg 2.1+5-Yr avg 2.1
30
Rice Prices
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
1983/84 1987/88 1991/92 1995/96 1999/00 2003/04 2007/08 2011/12
$9.96
10-Yr avg $7.37 5-Yr avg $6.03+5-Yr avg $5.18
31
Rice Summary
Planted/harvested acres stable 3.3/3.3 3.3/3.2
Price trend lower but inc. $6.03/$5.18$5.53
Loan rate set @ $6.50/cwt
Direct payment set @ $2.35/cwt
Target price set @ $10.50 $1.65 $9.90
32
Soybeans
33
Soybeans Planted/Harvested Acres
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Planted
Harvested
10-Yr avg 67.25-Yr avg 72.0
10-Yr avg 68.7 5-Yr avg 73.6
34
Soybeans Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
1983/84 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
Mill
ion
Acr
es
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
Planted
Production
Harvested
10-Yr avg 67.2 5-Yr avg 72.0
10-Yr avg 68.7 5-Yr avg 73.6
10-Yr avg 2.5 5-Yr avg 2.7
35
Soybeans Planted/Harvested Acres & Production
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
1983
/84
1985
/86
1987
/88
1989
/90
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/04
2005
/06
2007
/08
2009
/10
2011
/12
Mill
ion
Acr
es
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Bill
ion
Bu
shel
s
Planted
Production
Harvested
10-Yr avg 68.7 5-Yr avg 73.6+5-Yr avg 73.510-Yr avg 67.2 5-Yr avg 72.0+5-yr avg 72.2
10-Yr avg 2.5 5-Yr avg 2.7+5-Yr avg 3.0
36
Soybeans Prices
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$7.42 $7.3510-Yr avg $5.65 5-Yr avg $4.81+5-Yr avg $4.95
37
Soybean Summary
Planted/harvested acres stable 73.6/73.5 72/72.2
Price trend slightly higher $4.81/$4.95-$5.20
Loan rate set @ ~$4.96
Direct payment set @ 44¢
Target price set @ $5.80 40¢ $5.67
38
Peanuts
39
Potential price guarantee $474/Tn
Loan rate set @ ~$355/Tn
Peanut Summary
Acres move to areas with rotation and water
Direct payment set @ $36/Tn
Target price set @ $495/Tn $104 $474
40
Kim Anderson
Oklahoma State University
http://agecon.okstate.edu/faculty.asp
41
Commodity 2004 Loan Rate 2002 Loan Rate
Corn 1.95 1.98
Wheat 2.75 2.80
Cotton .52 .52
Soybeans 4.96 5.03
Sorghum 1.90 1.93
Peanuts 355.00 355.00
42
Commodity Fixed Payment
Corn .28
Wheat .52
Cotton .0667
Soybeans .44
Sorghum .35
Peanuts .36
43
2002-03 2004-07
Commodity Target Price
Corn 2.60 2.63
Wheat 3.86 3.92
Cotton .724 .724
Soybeans 5.80 5.80
Sorghum 2.54 2.57
Peanuts 4.95 4.95
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