1 Utility Analysis of Future Power Generat ion Based on the Choice Experiment Japan-US Workshop on Fusion Power Plants and Related Advanced Technologies with participatio n of EU March 5-7, 2008 at UCSD , US Ryoji Hiwatari*, Kunihiko Okano, Yoshiyuki Asaoka, Kohji Nagano Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry(CRIEPI) Yuichi Ogawa High Temperature Plasma Center, the Univ. of Tokyo Takaaki Kato Faculty of Environmental Engineering, The University of Kitakyushu Kenji Tobita Naka Fusion Energy Establishment, JAEA Takayoshi Norimatu Institute of Laser Engineering Osaka University Committee for an assessment on advanced energy technologies Organized by CRIEPI
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1 Utility Analysis of Future Power Generation Based on the Choice Experiment Japan-US Workshop on Fusion Power Plants and Related Advanced Technologies.
3 Summary (1) The key to choose a best-mix of energy systems is how to evaluate and compare quantitatively the merits and the demerits of each energy system. There is no single energy system to satisfy all the three aspects of sustainability, i.e. energy, economy, and environment. Hence, the well-balanced combination, i.e. best-mix, of several energy sources should be pursued In this study, a methodology to evaluate the merits and demerits of energy technology is developed based on the conjoint analysis technique.
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Utility Analysis of Future Power Generation Based on the Choice Experiment
Japan-US Workshop onFusion Power Plants and Related Advanced Technologies with participation of EU
March 5-7, 2008 at UCSD , US
Ryoji Hiwatari*, Kunihiko Okano, Yoshiyuki Asaoka, Kohji NaganoCentral Research Institute of Electric Power Industry(CRIEPI)
Yuichi OgawaHigh Temperature Plasma Center, the Univ. of Tokyo
Takaaki KatoFaculty of Environmental Engineering, The University of Kitakyushu
Kenji TobitaNaka Fusion Energy Establishment, JAEA
Takayoshi NorimatuInstitute of Laser Engineering Osaka University
Committee for an assessment on advanced energy technologiesOrganized by CRIEPI
Y. Ogawa (University of Tokyo, Chairman)K. Okano, Y. Asaoka, R. Hiwatari K. Nagano, T. Nanahara, N. Goto (CRIEPI)K. Itou (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan) T. Kato (University of Kitakyushu)R. Oomori (Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc.)) S. Konishi, Y. Oomura (Kyoto University) K. Itou (Kyushu University)K. Tokimatsu, T. Oosumi (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth) H. Suzuki (University of Tokyo)T. Norimatsu, H. Azechi (ILE, Osaka University)K. Tobita (Japan Atomic Energy Agency)A. Sagara (National Institute of Fusion Science)A. Hibiki (National Institute for Environmental Studies)
Members of Committee for an assessment on advanced energy technologies
•The key to choose a best-mix of energy systems is how to evaluate and compare quantitatively the merits and the demerits of each energy system.
•There is no single energy system to satisfy all the three aspects of sustainability, i.e. energy, economy, and environment. Hence, the well-balanced combination, i.e. best-mix, of several energy sources should be pursued
•In this study, a methodology to evaluate the merits and demerits of energy technology is developed based on the conjoint analysis technique.
•Utility values for energy abundance, environmental load (i.e. CO2 emission), stability of supply, sense of security, and other features as well as economic performance, are estimated from several thousands of choice experiments
•Difference of utility between gender, generations, and specialists on energy systems is discussed, and how to apply those utility values to energy development is proposed.
Example: a choice of your personal computer Profile example•Pentium D 3.0GHz•512MB•10GB•98000 Yen•HP, Slim type, etc
•The conjoint analysis is one of techniques to survey on public opinions.•Profile Cards, where various attributes of the target product or concept are listed, are used.
•The respondents choose the most preferable Profile Card from the set of the Cards (two or more) which are shown in each question.
-> Choice Experiment•The utility-function for the figure of merit on the individual attribute can be determined through a kind of statistical treatment.
Attributes*CPU speed*RAM size*Hard-disk capacity*Price*Brand image, design etc.
Choice Experiment on Future Electric Generation System
Impact at accident
Impact at accident
No impact to health
Some fatalities
Electricity expense in Japan
Electricity expense in Japan
Partial profile method of 3 attributes, which are chosen from all 8 attributes at random for each question, has been used. The levels of hidden attributes are assumed to be equal. 30 questions per person. The number of respondents is 1300. Then we got 39,000 answers.
1.Choice experiment and Conjoint analysis• Concept of conjoint analysis• Attribute and its levels on the future electric generatio
n system for choice experiment • Choice experiment applied in this study
2.Results• Utility values and those reproducibility• Difference between gender, generations in general pu
blic• General public v.s. specialists on energy system
3.Application of utility values• Development priority from the public viewpoint• Education tools (risk communication)
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Distribution of respondents - public -
Male50.6%
Female49.4%
Male n=682< >11.1%
22.6%
22.7%
21.6%
22.0%10's 20's 30's40's 50'sOver 60's
Female n=667< >21.4%
19.8%22.6%
13.6%22.5%
10's 20's 30's40's 50'sOver 60's
<n=1349>
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Results and Reproducibility of Utility Values
In this method, the differential of effects for every attributes can be compared each other.Resource 100 times as large as petroleum has a same effect to resource distributed in most of country. The increment of effect by “every country” is small.
An effect reduction due to 200$ increment in cost can be canceled by an increment of effect due to a reduction of CO2 emission by half.
Comparison between 1st (262persons) and 2nd (1349persons) shows the clear reproducibility
•The key to choose a best-mix of energy systems is how to evaluate and compare quantitatively the merits and the demerits of each energy system.
•There is no single energy system to satisfy all the three aspects of sustainability, i.e. energy, economy, and environment. Hence, the well-balanced combination, i.e. best-mix, of several energy sources should be pursued
•In this study, a methodology to evaluate the merits and demerits of energy technology is developed based on the conjoint analysis technique.
•Utility values for energy abundance, environmental load (i.e. CO2 emission), stability of supply, sense of security, and other features as well as economic performance, are estimated from several thousands of choice experiments•Utility difference between gender, generations, and specialists on energy system is discussed, and how to apply those utility values to energy development is proposed.