1 Uncertainty in Extrapolations of Predictive Land Change Models R Gil Pontius Jr ([email protected]) Joe Spencer ([email protected]) Prepared for presentation at the Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada, 16-18 October, 2003.
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1 Uncertainty in Extrapolations of Predictive Land Change Models R Gil Pontius Jr ([email protected]) Joe Spencer ([email protected]) Prepared for.
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Uncertainty in Extrapolations of Predictive Land Change Models
• Validation is a waste of time,– unless you use the validation statistic to express
the level of certainty of predictions of the unknown.
• The prediction’s accuracy approaches random as the prediction’s time interval grows.– We estimate how fast the accuracy approaches
random.
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Method is based on:Pontius. 2002. Statistical methods to partition effects of quantity and location during comparison of categorical maps at multiple resolutions. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 68(10). pp. 1041-1049.PDF file is available at www.clarku.edu/~rpontius or [email protected]
National Science Foundation funded this via: Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global ChangeHuman Environment Regional Observatory (HERO)