1 UIUC ATMOS 397G Biogeochemical Cycles and Global Change Lecture 25: Climate, Energy and Carbon Sequestration Don Wuebbles Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

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ATMOS 397GATMOS 397GBiogeochemical Cycles and Global ChangeBiogeochemical Cycles and Global ChangeLecture 25: Climate, Energy and Carbon Lecture 25: Climate, Energy and Carbon

SequestrationSequestration

Don WuebblesDon Wuebbles

Department of Atmospheric SciencesDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Illinois, Urbana, ILUniversity of Illinois, Urbana, IL

April 29, 2003April 29, 2003

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Achieving a Sustainable Climate (ASC)—Positioning Achieving a Sustainable Climate (ASC)—Positioning National Resources to Resolve Climate ChangeNational Resources to Resolve Climate Change

Improving definition of the problem Diagnosis and understanding (climate, carbon cycle,

etc.) Evaluating the impacts Determine ability to adapt to some climate change

Solving the problem Technology to increase conservation / efficiency Reduced-carbon energy technology development

—Public acceptance of nuclear technology—Fuel cells, etc.

Carbon capture and sequestration

ASC would also help solve other energy issues (e.g., California 2001; Reliance on foreign oil)

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ASC---The Climate Change ChallengeASC---The Climate Change Challenge

1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)

GOAL—”…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (Article 2)

Stabilizing Concentrations Is not the Same as Stabilizing Emissions

Stabilizing Concentrations Implies Human-related Emissions Must (approximately) Go to ZERO.

Cumulative EmissionsConcentrations

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SRES Emissions ScenariosSRES Emissions Scenarios

CO2

SO2

N2O

CH4

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Derived CO2 Concentration – SRES ScenariosDerived CO2 Concentration – SRES Scenarios

All SRES envelopreference case

A1B Scenario envelop including climate sensitivity uncertainty

All SRES envelop including climate sensitivity uncertainty

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ASC---The Climate Change ChallengeASC---The Climate Change Challenge

Changes Required in Human-related CO2 Emissions to Stabilize Atmospheric Concentrations

Requires peak & then decline in emissions

Emissions Trajectories Consistent With Various Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Ceilings

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0

5

10

15

20

1990 2090 2190 2290

750 ppmv650 ppmv550 ppmv450 ppmv350 ppmvIS92a

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Without New Technology: Without New Technology: Carbon Emissions & Concentrations Will RiseCarbon Emissions & Concentrations Will Rise

Emissions Concentrations

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

PgC

/yr

IS92a(1990 technology)IS92a550 Ceiling

0

100

200

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500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

ppm

v

IS92a(1990 technology)IS92a550 CeilingPreindustrial

Preindustrial CO2

Current EnergyS&T can reducecarbon emission.

But stabilization

requires additional

Carbon S&T!

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Reducing Emissions to Fill in the GapReducing Emissions to Fill in the Gap

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mill

ions

of T

onne

s of C

arbo

n pe

r ye

ar

Reference Emissions

CO2 Emissions Cap

GAP

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Resolving scientific uncertainty Emissions mitigation, including

carbon sequestration Technology development, Climate adaptation

Climate policy requires a portfolio of responses, Climate policy requires a portfolio of responses, including …including …

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1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 20802095

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Mill

ions

of T

onne

s of C

arbo

n pe

r ye

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soil carbon sequestrationsequestration from fossil power generationsequestration from synfuels productionsequestration from H2 productionend-use technology improvementsnuclearsolarbiomass550 ppmv emissions

19902005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Mill

ions

of T

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s of C

arbo

n pe

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soil carbon sequestrationsequestration from fossil power generationsequestration from synfuels productionsequestration from H2 productionsynfuelsfinal energynuclearsolarbiomass550 ppmv emissions

CBF 550 AOG 550

Uncertain Technology …

Need flexibility while developing technology

Analyses from Jae Edmonds, 2001

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When take a cost effective technology out of the portfolio, the costs of stabilizing CO2 are raised—The Value of Carbon Capture & Sequestration

CBF

NOTESCP=Carbon capture & sequestration from fossil fuels used to generate electric

power.H2 Seq.=Fossil fuels used as feedstocks for hydrogen production with carbon

capture and sequestration.

Results from Jae Edmonds, 2001

No Sequestration

Soil Seq. Only

Central Power Seq.

CP + H2 Seq.

CP + H2 + Soil Seq.

750 ppmv650 ppmv

550 ppmv450 ppmv

$6,845

$4,738$4,928

$3,326

$2,180$1,453$1,034

$940 $520 $389$529 $377 $299 $149 $123$266 $193 $137 $62 $52$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$ bi

llion

s

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ASC---The Climate Change ChallengeASC---The Climate Change Challenge

Stabilization requires fundamental change in the energy system Technology advances are key to stabilizing CO2 concentrations and

controlling costs Diversified technology portfolios are essential to manage risk

Technologies that fill the “gap” are not part of the current energy system. Carbon capture and sequestration technologies expand dramatically. The technology portfolio changes over time. Some technologies are more important when others are also available. Some technologies expand their relative importance without expanding their

absolute deployment. Need to revisit the technology strategy frequently Energy R&D funding needs to be extensively increased as part of ASC

Solution will also require public-private partnerships

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Wood

Coal

OilOil (feedstock)

Gas

Hydro Nuclear

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1850

18

60 18

70 18

80 18

90 19

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10 19

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40 19

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80 19

90

It traditionally has taken 50 years or more for a technology to grow from 1 to 50% of the market.

Energy R&D

What is done in the next 10 years will strongly influence what is possible in the next 50 years

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Carbon Sequestration

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DOE report

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Fig. 1: Soil carbon sequestration: how it worksCarbon sequestration in soils suggests that fluxes or movements of carbon from the atmosphere can be increased while the natural release of carbon back into the air can be reduced. By absorbing carbon instead of emitting it, soils could evolve from carbon sources to carbon sinks. This process relies on respiration and photosynthesis, two basic processes of the carbon cycle. Carbon, entering the soil in form of roots, litter, harvest residues, and animal manure, is stored primarily as soil organic matter (SOM). In undisturbed environments, balanced rates of input and decomposition determine steady state fluxes. However, in many parts of the world, agricultural and other land use activities have upset this natural balance, thereby releasing alarming rates of carbon to the atmosphere.

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Carbon Storage in U.S. Prairie States

The soils in the Historic Grasslands region of the U.S. provide a huge reservoir to store carbon. These soils, under the current conservation reserves program enrollment, could offset about 20 percent of all U.S. agricultural emissions.

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Projected Global Surface Temperature Response:Projected Global Surface Temperature Response: ~ 2.5 to 10.4 °F by 2100 ~ 2.5 to 10.4 °F by 2100

Relative to 1990

Projected changes in emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases could lead to large changes in climate over the century

With recent advances in climate model’s ability to represent the earth-atmosphere system, there is now a wider range in potential global and hemispheric-level change due to the range in possible emission scenarios than the range in model results