1 The outlook for recruitment David O’Brien, 0151 600 3707, [email protected] 23rd March 2013.
Dec 29, 2015
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Triple dip avoided With the Bank of England increasing their GDP growth expectations
2
The outlook for the UK economy
• Slow recovery beginning to feed through, GDP forecast raised from 1.2% to 1.5% for 2013 by the BoE
• Inflation continues to fall, aided by a stable oil price• UK employment rate at 71.4%• Modest average wage growth of 0.4%
Q1
19
81
Q2
19
82
Q3
19
83
Q4
19
84
Q1
19
86
Q2
19
87
Q3
19
88
Q4
19
89
Q1
19
91
Q2
19
92
Q3
19
93
Q4
19
94
Q1
19
96
Q2
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q4
19
99
Q1
20
01
Q2
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q4
20
04
Q1
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
13
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
GDP
Source: Datastream Source: Bank of England
Asda income tracker – pressure continues The falling oil price in £, should lead to a reduction in the CPI
3
Inflation falling
3708
737
361
3763
637
909
3818
338
457
3873
239
005
3927
839
553
3982
840
101
4037
440
648
4092
341
197
4147
041
744
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
Brent Sterling (yoy%) Fuel Contribution to CPI RHS
Assuming no change in
Brent £ level
Main components of CPI
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
150
155
160
165
-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
Change (%) (RH axis) Disposable income (£) (LH axis)
May 09 May 10 May 11 May 12 May 13-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Food CPI Utilities
'Essentials' CPI
• UK CPI inflation fell from 2.8% in March to 2.4% in April 2013
• Pressure from utilities set to fall as sterling cost of fuel declines
• Student fees drop out of the CPI from Autumn, where they currently add 0.3%
• Falling CPI in turn eases the pressure on disposable income
• Housing market improving
• We expect the consumer to begin spending again, albeit fuelled by debt rather than productivity gains initially
Source: Datastream
Source: Asda Source: Datastream
Lloyds Banking Group Business Barometer improving GfK Consumer Confidence has turned, with retail sales set to follow
4
UK economic confidence improving
• The Lloyds Banking Group Business Barometer, which measures the level of optimism on the economy and business activity, remains increasingly upbeat. This points towards strengthening GDP growth from Q2 to Q3.
• While consumer confidence remains at low levels, as evidenced within the Asda Income Tracker data, we think the worst is over for the consumer.
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-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Net economic optimism balanceNet business activity optimism balance
Q1 1990
Q2 1990
Q3 1990
Q4 1990
Q1 1991
Q2 1991
Q3 1991
Q4 1991
Q1 1992
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Q3 1992
Q4 1992
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Q2 2004
Q3 2004
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Q2 2005
Q3 2005
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Q2 2006
Q3 2006
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Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
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Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
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Q2 2011
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Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
GfK Consumer Confidence Retail Sales (yoy% RHS)
Source: Lloyds Banking Group Source; GfK
UK jobs growth continuing YoY, albeit at a slowing pace Working hours showing good growth, albeit slowing more recently
5
Employment - slight disappointment in recent figures
• The recent ONS labour market figures for January to march demonstrated an employment rate of 71.4% (from 71.6% in Oct – Dec 2012). This equated to 29.71m in employment aged 16 and over, down 43,000
• Unemployment rate of 7.8%, up 0.1%, with 2.52m unemployed, a rise of 15,000 from the previous report
• Vacancies of 503,000, an increase of 4,000 on December’s data
• AWE regular pay growth of 0.8%, the lowest growth rate since records began in 2001
01
/01
/20
02
01
/07
/20
02
01
/01
/20
03
01
/07
/20
03
01
/01
/20
04
01
/07
/20
04
01
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05
01
/07
/20
05
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/20
06
01
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/20
06
01
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/20
07
01
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/20
07
01
/01
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08
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/20
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01
/01
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09
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/07
/20
09
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/01
/20
10
01
/07
/20
10
01
/01
/20
11
01
/07
/20
11
01
/01
/20
12
01
/07
/20
12
01
/01
/20
13
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Working Hours % YoY (R...
Source: ONS Source: ONS
Q1
19
81
Q1
19
82
Q1
19
83
Q1
19
84
Q1
19
85
Q1
19
86
Q1
19
87
Q1
19
88
Q1
19
89
Q1
19
90
Q1
19
91
Q1
19
92
Q1
19
93
Q1
19
94
Q1
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q1
19
97
Q1
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q1
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q1
20
13
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
UK Jobs, YoY change %
6
Employment intentions broadly positive
• Net employment intentions (recruitment minus redundancy expectations) are positive in all but the public sector
• ..led by the voluntary sector, • With services demonstrating stronger growth than
manufacturing within the private sector
..with services leading the way in the private sectorNet employment intentions rising in two out of three UK sectors
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-13
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-20-10
010203040506070
Private Public Voluntary
01
/01
/20
02
01
/07
/20
02
01
/01
/20
03
01
/07
/20
03
01
/01
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/07
/20
04
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/20
05
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05
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06
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/20
07
01
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/20
07
01
/01
/20
08
01
/07
/20
08
01
/01
/20
09
01
/07
/20
09
01
/01
/20
10
01
/07
/20
10
01
/01
/20
11
01
/07
/20
11
01
/01
/20
12
01
/07
/20
12
01
/01
/20
13
-5-4-3-2-10123
Employment Intentions Services lag 4 monthsEmployment Intentions Manufacturing lag 4 months
Source: CIPD Source: Bank of England
7
Public sector job churn on the rise?
With net job satisfaction near to lows within the public sectorStrong public sector vacancy growth
01/0
6/20
02
01/0
1/20
03
01/0
8/20
03
01/0
3/20
04
01/1
0/20
04
01/0
5/20
05
01/1
2/20
05
01/0
7/20
06
01/0
2/20
07
01/0
9/20
07
01/0
4/20
08
01/1
1/20
08
01/0
6/20
09
01/0
1/20
10
01/0
8/20
10
01/0
3/20
11
01/1
0/20
11
01/0
5/20
12
01/1
2/20
12
-60-50-40-30-20-10
010203040
UK private sector vacancies YoY% UK public sector vacancies YoY%
Sp
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20
25
30
35
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45
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55
60
Overall Voluntary sector
Private sector Public sector
• A number of recruiters have commented on the strong activity levels YoY in the public sector during Q1
• We think that rising vacancy levels....,
• ..low job satisfaction and ,
• ..a desire to progress one’s career...,
• Despite the wider environment within the public sector this has led to an increase in CHURN
• With net job satisfaction in the private sector waning, coupled with an improvement in confidence, how long before churn begins to rise generally?
Source: ONS Source: CIPD
8
Greater demand for Full-time and temp employees currently
• ONS figures to February demonstrate that there was greater demand for full-time and temporary workers
• Demand for part-time employees slowed further during February
• We think this suggests slowly improving confidence in prospects for the UK economy
And demand for temps picked up marginallyWhile demand for P-T employees became more sluggish
Growth in F-T employees slowed recently, YoY%
01/0
4/19
93
01/0
4/19
94
01/0
4/19
95
01/0
4/19
96
01/0
4/19
97
01/0
4/19
98
01/0
4/19
99
01/0
4/20
00
01/0
4/20
01
01/0
4/20
02
01/0
4/20
03
01/0
4/20
04
01/0
4/20
05
01/0
4/20
06
01/0
4/20
07
01/0
4/20
08
01/0
4/20
09
01/0
4/20
10
01/0
4/20
11
01/0
4/20
12
-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%
Growth in full-time employees, YoY%
01/0
4/19
93
01/0
3/19
94
01/0
2/19
95
01/0
1/19
96
01/1
2/19
96
01/1
1/19
97
01/1
0/19
98
01/0
9/19
99
01/0
8/20
00
01/0
7/20
01
01/0
6/20
02
01/0
5/20
03
01/0
4/20
04
01/0
3/20
05
01/0
2/20
06
01/0
1/20
07
01/1
2/20
07
01/1
1/20
08
01/1
0/20
09
01/0
9/20
10
01/0
8/20
11
01/0
7/20
12
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Growth in part-time employees, YoY%
01/0
4/19
93
01/0
4/19
94
01/0
4/19
95
01/0
4/19
96
01/0
4/19
97
01/0
4/19
98
01/0
4/19
99
01/0
4/20
00
01/0
4/20
01
01/0
4/20
02
01/0
4/20
03
01/0
4/20
04
01/0
4/20
05
01/0
4/20
06
01/0
4/20
07
01/0
4/20
08
01/0
4/20
09
01/0
4/20
10
01/0
4/20
11
01/0
4/20
12
01/0
4/20
13
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Growth in temp employees, YoY%
Source: ONS
Source: ONSSource: ONS
9
Public-private sector employment growth
Even financial services growing within the private sector Public sector held back by administration segment
• All private sector segments growing at broadly similar rates in the year to February
• There even appears to have been a recovery within the financial services sector, although a number of retail banks have announced redundancies recently
• However, Public Administration remains the laggard within the Public Sector, with healthcare remaining the strongest of the three segments
Q1
19
81
Q2
19
82
Q3
19
83
Q4
19
84
Q1
19
86
Q2
19
87
Q3
19
88
Q4
19
89
Q1
19
91
Q2
19
92
Q3
19
93
Q4
19
94
Q1
19
96
Q2
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q4
19
99
Q1
20
01
Q2
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q4
20
04
Q1
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
12
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Manufacturing, % change YoY Services, % change YoYFinancial, % change YoY
Q1
19
81
Q1
19
82
Q1
19
83
Q1
19
84
Q1
19
85
Q1
19
86
Q1
19
87
Q1
19
88
Q1
19
89
Q1
19
90
Q1
19
91
Q1
19
92
Q1
19
93
Q1
19
94
Q1
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q1
19
97
Q1
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q1
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q1
20
13
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Public Admin, % change YoY Education, % change YoY
Health, % change YoYSource: Datastream Source: Datastream
10
Pay growth fell in March 2013 in the private sector but...
• Pay growth declined 1.3% YoY within the UK private sector in March
• But rising 1.1% in the UK public sector
• However, the CIPD labour market outlook survey suggests that growth in pay is likely to be higher within the private sector from Q2 2013 onwards
Annual pay growth negative in the private sector in the year to March 2013 Annual pay growth expectations higher within the private sector
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-0.50
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.5
Overall Private sector Public sector
Source: ONS
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Wage inflation, whole economy, YoY%Ave earnings growth, private sector, YoY%Ave earnings growth, public sector, YoY%
Source: CIPD
11
Outlook for UK economy improves
• The outlook for the UK economy is set to improve further, based on the Markit composite PMI
• While the Report on Jobs survey suggests the demand for recruiting new workers fell during April
• However, the Markit PMI for employment in the UK (across all sectors) is modestly upbeat from May onwards
• Source of charts / data : Markit / Datastream / REC / KPMG
REC / KPMG demand for perms and temps Markit all sector UK employment PMI
UK composite PMI suggests further GDP expansion
35
40
45
50
55
60
CIPS All sector PMI Employment Index 50 = no change MoM2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Overall Perms Overall Temps
Oct 97 Oct 99 Oct 01 Oct 03 Oct 05 Oct 07 Oct 09 Oct 11
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI Output/Business Activity Index
12
US, trends remain positive but slowing
• In view of the combination of tax increases and budget cuts during 2013 YTD, it is hardly surprising that growth trends are slowing in the US
• The most recent US employment PMI for April fell to 50.2, suggesting modest growth in the outlook for staffing levels generally
• There tends to be direct correlation between the ISM and US non-farm payrolls...
• ...the number of job openings and,• ..weekly hours worked• Source of charts / data : Datastream
..and weekly hours..as does the number of job openings
Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 1030
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-50-40-30-20-1001020304050
ISM Employment Balance Job openings (yoy%)
Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-50-40-30-20-1001020304050
Weekly hours yoy% Job openings (yoy%)
Jan 80Feb 80Mar 80Apr 80May 80Jun 80Jul 80Aug 80Sep 80Oct 80Nov 80Dec 80Jan 81Feb 81Mar 81Apr 81May 81Jun 81Jul 81Aug 81Sep 81Oct 81Nov 81Dec 81Jan 82Feb 82Mar 82Apr 82May 82Jun 82Jul 82Aug 82Sep 82Oct 82Nov 82Dec 82Jan 83Feb 83Mar 83Apr 83May 83Jun 83Jul 83Aug 83Sep 83Oct 83Nov 83Dec 83Jan 84Feb 84Mar 84Apr 84May 84Jun 84Jul 84Aug 84Sep 84Oct 84Nov 84Dec 84Jan 85Feb 85Mar 85Apr 85May 85Jun 85Jul 85Aug 85Sep 85Oct 85Nov 85Dec 85Jan 86Feb 86Mar 86Apr 86May 86Jun 86Jul 86Aug 86Sep 86Oct 86Nov 86Dec 86Jan 87Feb 87Mar 87Apr 87May 87Jun 87Jul 87Aug 87Sep 87Oct 87Nov 87Dec 87Jan 88Feb 88Mar 88Apr 88May 88Jun 88Jul 88Aug 88Sep 88Oct 88Nov 88Dec 88Jan 89Feb 89Mar 89Apr 89May 89Jun 89Jul 89Aug 89Sep 89Oct 89Nov 89Dec 89Jan 90Feb 90Mar 90Apr 90May 90Jun 90Jul 90Aug 90Sep 90Oct 90Nov 90Dec 90Jan 91Feb 91Mar 91Apr 91May 91Jun 91Jul 91Aug 91Sep 91Oct 91Nov 91Dec 91Jan 92Feb 92Mar 92Apr 92May 92Jun 92Jul 92Aug 92Sep 92Oct 92Nov 92Dec 92Jan 93Feb 93Mar 93Apr 93May 93Jun 93Jul 93Aug 93Sep 93Oct 93Nov 93Dec 93Jan 94Feb 94Mar 94Apr 94May 94Jun 94Jul 94Aug 94Sep 94Oct 94Nov 94Dec 94Jan 95Feb 95Mar 95Apr 95May 95Jun 95Jul 95Aug 95Sep 95Oct 95Nov 95Dec 95Jan 96Feb 96Mar 96Apr 96May 96Jun 96Jul 96Aug 96Sep 96Oct 96Nov 96Dec 96Jan 97Feb 97Mar 97Apr 97May 97Jun 97Jul 97Aug 97Sep 97Oct 97Nov 97Dec 97Jan 98Feb 98Mar 98Apr 98May 98Jun 98Jul 98Aug 98Sep 98Oct 98Nov 98Dec 98Jan 99Feb 99Mar 99Apr 99May 99Jun 99Jul 99Aug 99Sep 99Oct 99Nov 99Dec 99Jan 00Feb 00Mar 00Apr 00May 00Jun 00Jul 00Aug 00Sep 00Oct 00Nov 00Dec 00Jan 01Feb 01Mar 01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec 01Jan 02Feb 02Mar 02Apr 02May 02Jun 02Jul 02Aug 02Sep 02Oct 02Nov 02Dec 02Jan 03Feb 03Mar 03Apr 03May 03Jun 03Jul 03Aug 03Sep 03Oct 03Nov 03Dec 03Jan 04Feb 04Mar 04Apr 04May 04Jun 04Jul 04Aug 04Sep 04Oct 04Nov 04Dec 04Jan 05Feb 05Mar 05Apr 05May 05Jun 05Jul 05Aug 05Sep 05Oct 05Nov 05Dec 05Jan 06Feb 06Mar 06Apr 06May 06Jun 06Jul 06Aug 06Sep 06Oct 06Nov 06Dec 06Jan 07Feb 07Mar 07Apr 07May 07Jun 07Jul 07Aug 07Sep 07Oct 07Nov 07Dec 07Jan 08Feb 08Mar 08Apr 08May 08Jun 08Jul 08Aug 08Sep 08Oct 08Nov 08Dec 08Jan 09Feb 09Mar 09Apr 09May 09Jun 09Jul 09Aug 09Sep 09Oct 09Nov 09Dec 09Jan 10Feb 10Mar 10Apr 10May 10Jun 10Jul 10Aug 10Sep 10Oct 10Nov 10Dec 10Jan 11Feb 11Mar 11Apr 11May 11Jun 11Jul 11Aug 11Sep 11Oct 11Nov 11Dec 11Jan 12Feb 12Mar 12Apr 12May 12Jun 12Jul 12Aug 12Sep 12Oct 12Nov 12Dec 12Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13Apr 13May 13Jun 13Jul 13
25
35
45
55
65
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
ISM Employment Balance
US non-farm payrolls generally track the direction of the employment PMI
13
However, overall US employment continues to rise...just
And improving growth of full-time employees..with temp demand rising
...with demand for part-time employees static YoY%
01/0
1/19
81
01/0
8/19
82
01/0
3/19
84
01/1
0/19
85
01/0
5/19
87
01/1
2/19
88
01/0
7/19
90
01/0
2/19
92
01/0
9/19
93
01/0
4/19
95
01/1
1/19
96
01/0
6/19
98
01/0
1/20
00
01/0
8/20
01
01/0
3/20
03
01/1
0/20
04
01/0
5/20
06
01/1
2/20
07
01/0
7/20
09
01/0
2/20
11
01/0
9/20
12
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
US Total Employment, YoY%
01/0
1/19
91
01/0
2/19
92
01/0
3/19
93
01/0
4/19
94
01/0
5/19
95
01/0
6/19
96
01/0
7/19
97
01/0
8/19
98
01/0
9/19
99
01/1
0/20
00
01/1
1/20
01
01/1
2/20
02
01/0
1/20
04
01/0
2/20
05
01/0
3/20
06
01/0
4/20
07
01/0
5/20
08
01/0
6/20
09
01/0
7/20
10
01/0
8/20
11
01/0
9/20
12
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
US Temp employment, services, YoY%
01/0
1/19
81
01/0
9/19
82
01/0
5/19
84
01/0
1/19
86
01/0
9/19
87
01/0
5/19
89
01/0
1/19
91
01/0
9/19
92
01/0
5/19
94
01/0
1/19
96
01/0
9/19
97
01/0
5/19
99
01/0
1/20
01
01/0
9/20
02
01/0
5/20
04
01/0
1/20
06
01/0
9/20
07
01/0
5/20
09
01/0
1/20
11
01/0
9/20
12
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
US Full-Time workers, YoY%
Slowing growth in overall employment levels
01/0
1/19
81
01/0
8/19
82
01/0
3/19
84
01/1
0/19
85
01/0
5/19
87
01/1
2/19
88
01/0
7/19
90
01/0
2/19
92
01/0
9/19
93
01/0
4/19
95
01/1
1/19
96
01/0
6/19
98
01/0
1/20
00
01/0
8/20
01
01/0
3/20
03
01/1
0/20
04
01/0
5/20
06
01/1
2/20
07
01/0
7/20
09
01/0
2/20
11
01/0
9/20
12
-5.0%-3.0%-1.0%1.0%3.0%5.0%7.0%9.0%
11.0%13.0%15.0%
US P-T workers, YoY%
Source of all data / charts : Datastream
14
..and other US trends improving
..while the average period unemployed is declining
The number of redundancy notices are falling
..and unemployment falling
• The Challenger job cut announcements fell 6% during April, the best performance in three months
• With the average period of unemployment continuing to decline from peak levels
• Resulting in unemployment falling to 7.5%, the lowest level in 52 months
01/0
1/19
95
01/1
2/19
95
01/1
1/19
96
01/1
0/19
97
01/0
9/19
98
01/0
8/19
99
01/0
7/20
00
01/0
6/20
01
01/0
5/20
02
01/0
4/20
03
01/0
3/20
04
01/0
2/20
05
01/0
1/20
06
01/1
2/20
06
01/1
1/20
07
01/1
0/20
08
01/0
9/20
09
01/0
8/20
10
01/0
7/20
11
01/0
6/20
12
01/0
5/20
13
-200.0%-100.0%
0.0%100.0%200.0%300.0%400.0%500.0%600.0%700.0%
US Challenger job cuts announcements, YoY change%
01/0
1/19
80
01/0
9/19
81
01/0
5/19
83
01/0
1/19
85
01/0
9/19
86
01/0
5/19
88
01/0
1/19
90
01/0
9/19
91
01/0
5/19
93
01/0
1/19
95
01/0
9/19
96
01/0
5/19
98
01/0
1/20
00
01/0
9/20
01
01/0
5/20
03
01/0
1/20
05
01/0
9/20
06
01/0
5/20
08
01/0
1/20
10
01/0
9/20
11
01/0
5/20
13
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
US ave. duration of unemployment, weeks
01/0
1/19
80
01/1
1/19
81
01/0
9/19
83
01/0
7/19
85
01/0
5/19
87
01/0
3/19
89
01/0
1/19
91
01/1
1/19
92
01/0
9/19
94
01/0
7/19
96
01/0
5/19
98
01/0
3/20
00
01/0
1/20
02
01/1
1/20
03
01/0
9/20
05
01/0
7/20
07
01/0
5/20
09
01/0
3/20
11
01/0
1/20
13
0.0
100000.0
200000.0
300000.0
400000.0
500000.0
600000.0
700000.0
800000.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
US initial jobless claims US unemployment rate, %
Source of data / charts: Datastream / Challenger
15
..led by the US private sector
..and average earnings growth remains relatively healthy..with working hours also increasing
• Job creation continues to be led by the US private sector...
• ..with the US public sector shedding net jobs since mid-2010
• Not surprisingly, working hours continue to rise, led by the private sector and,
• At an annualised rate of 1.9% YoY, average earnings growth improved slightly in April
01/0
1/19
81
01/0
7/19
82
01/0
1/19
84
01/0
7/19
85
01/0
1/19
87
01/0
7/19
88
01/0
1/19
90
01/0
7/19
91
01/0
1/19
93
01/0
7/19
94
01/0
1/19
96
01/0
7/19
97
01/0
1/19
99
01/0
7/20
00
01/0
1/20
02
01/0
7/20
03
01/0
1/20
05
01/0
7/20
06
01/0
1/20
08
01/0
7/20
09
01/0
1/20
11
01/0
7/20
12
-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
US employment - Govt, YoY%US employment - Private sector, YoY change%
US private sector creating jobs
01/0
1/19
81
01/1
0/19
82
01/0
7/19
84
01/0
4/19
86
01/0
1/19
88
01/1
0/19
89
01/0
7/19
91
01/0
4/19
93
01/0
1/19
95
01/1
0/19
96
01/0
7/19
98
01/0
4/20
00
01/0
1/20
02
01/1
0/20
03
01/0
7/20
05
01/0
4/20
07
01/0
1/20
09
01/1
0/20
10
01/0
7/20
12
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
US working hours, private sector non-farm, YoY%
01/0
3/20
07
01/0
7/20
07
01/1
1/20
07
01/0
3/20
08
01/0
7/20
08
01/1
1/20
08
01/0
3/20
09
01/0
7/20
09
01/1
1/20
09
01/0
3/20
10
01/0
7/20
10
01/1
1/20
10
01/0
3/20
11
01/0
7/20
11
01/1
1/20
11
01/0
3/20
12
01/0
7/20
12
01/1
1/20
12
01/0
3/20
13
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
US ave. hourly earnings, YoY%
Source of data / charts: Datastream
EU & German indicators deteriorating
16
EU economic sentiment deteriorating
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
ZEW economic sentiment indicator, GermanyZEW economic sentiment indicator, EurozoneZEW economic sentiment indicator, FranceZEW economic sentiment indicator, Italy
German vacancies falling
..while hours worked are broadly unchanged YoY
Q1
20
01
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q3
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q3
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
German vacancies, YoY%
..with the declining trend widespread across a number of sectors
Q1
19
92
Q4
19
92
Q3
19
93
Q2
19
94
Q1
19
95
Q4
19
95
Q3
19
96
Q2
19
97
Q1
19
98
Q4
19
98
Q3
19
99
Q2
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q4
20
01
Q3
20
02
Q2
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q4
20
04
Q3
20
05
Q2
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q4
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q2
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q2
20
12
Q1
20
13
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
Germany: Hours worked - all employees, YoY%
Q1
19
92
Q4
19
92
Q3
19
93
Q2
19
94
Q1
19
95
Q4
19
95
Q3
19
96
Q2
19
97
Q1
19
98
Q4
19
98
Q3
19
99
Q2
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q4
20
01
Q3
20
02
Q2
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q4
20
04
Q3
20
05
Q2
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q4
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q2
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q2
20
12
Q1
20
13
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Germany: Hours worked - manufacturing, YoY%Germany: Hours worked - construction, YoY%Germany: Hours worked - financial services, YoY%
Source of data / charts: Datastream
Employment and vacancy levels decline in France
• Q1 results from the recruiters demonstrated sharp YoY declines in NFI in France, which were tending to bump along the bottom
• This is borne out by the relatively slow decline in employment levels and decelerating decline in temporary workers
• However, the level of vacancies continues to decline at an increasing pace
17
Change in employment and temp worker levels in France, YoY% Change in vacancy levels, YoY%
Q1
19
90
Q4
19
90
Q3
19
91
Q2
19
92
Q1
19
93
Q4
19
93
Q3
19
94
Q2
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q4
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q2
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q4
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q2
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q4
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q2
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q3
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q2
20
13
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
France: Change in employment, YoY%France: Change in temporary workers, MoM%
Q1
19
98
Q3
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q3
19
99
Q1
20
00
Q3
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q3
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q3
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%
France: New vacancies, YoY%
Source of data / charts: Datastream
While trends inasia Pacific are broadly positive...
18
Hong Kong vacancies remain strong ...with unemployment levels broadly unchanged YoY
...with overtime & weekly hours worked improvingSlowing employment growth in Singapore generally
Q1
19
91
Q4
19
91
Q3
19
92
Q2
19
93
Q1
19
94
Q4
19
94
Q3
19
95
Q2
19
96
Q1
19
97
Q4
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q2
19
99
Q1
20
00
Q4
20
00
Q3
20
01
Q2
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q4
20
03
Q3
20
04
Q2
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q4
20
06
Q3
20
07
Q2
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q2
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q4
20
12
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Singapore, weekly overtime hours, YoY%Singapore, hours paid weekly, YoY%
Q1
20
00
Q3
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q3
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q3
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
-30-20-10
0102030405060
-3-2-1012345
Singapore employment, construction, YoY%Singapore employment, manufacturing, YoY%Singapore employment, services, YoY%Singapore employment, financial services, YoY%Singapore employment, others, YoY% (RH Axis)
Q1
19
90
Q4
19
90
Q3
19
91
Q2
19
92
Q1
19
93
Q4
19
93
Q3
19
94
Q2
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q4
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q2
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q4
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q2
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q4
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q2
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q3
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
HK unemployment YoY % HK Job Vacancies, YoY%
Q2
19
89
Q1
19
90
Q4
19
90
Q3
19
91
Q2
19
92
Q1
19
93
Q4
19
93
Q3
19
94
Q2
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q4
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q2
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q4
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q2
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q4
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q2
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q3
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
HK JOB VACANCIES(TOTAL INDUSTRY SECTORS EXC. CIVIL SERV...
Source of data / charts: Datastream
..although Australia takes a further lurch downwards
• Just as a stabilisation of the economy, at lower levels looked on the cards in Q1 2013
• ..the resources sector was hit by further project cancellations
• As a result, unemployment is on the rise,
• Vacancies are falling and,
• Hours worked have begun to decline further
19
Unemployment rises, while vacancies decline... ..and hours worked falls again
Q1
19
90
Q4
19
90
Q3
19
91
Q2
19
92
Q1
19
93
Q4
19
93
Q3
19
94
Q2
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q4
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q2
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q4
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q2
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q4
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q2
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q3
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q2
20
13
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Australian unemployment, YoY% Australian vacancies, YoY%
Q1
19
90
Q4
19
90
Q3
19
91
Q2
19
92
Q1
19
93
Q4
19
93
Q3
19
94
Q2
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q4
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q2
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q4
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q2
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q4
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q2
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q3
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q2
20
13
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Australian hours worked, yoY%
Source of data / charts: Datastream
20
What are results in the real world suggesting?
• The Q1 results, measured on a YoY basis demonstrated that an inflection point in YoY NFI growth levels was passed, particularly in professional services recruitment
• Europe remains the laggard, with Australia holding back the Asia Pacific region generally
• Asia begins to deliver green shoots• Argentina and Brazil mixed in the Americas• The UK, excl. Financial services, is showing green
shoots
Michael Page shows a turning point reached in three of four regions
Australian exposure is holding back Hays’ Asian business
Q1
20
07
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q4
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
UK C Europe Asia Pacific Americas
While all regions delivering YoY growth at Robert Walters
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
UK Asia Pacific Europe and RoW
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
UK Europe Asia Pacific RoW
Source: Michael Page
Source: HaysSource: Robert Walters
21
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