1 The EEA approach towards an indicator based assessment with a focus on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Biodiversity O. Schweiger, M. Füssel, A. Jol, A. Marx.

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The EEA approach towards an indicator based assessment with a focus on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Biodiversity

O. Schweiger, M. Füssel, A. Jol, A. Marx

Strasbourg, 01.10.2012

ETC/CCA

ETC/CCA

Key relevant EU policy processes

• Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth: ‘strengthen our economies' resilience to climate risks’

• Climate change adaptation (Mainstreaming in EU policies, Clearinghouse on adaptation by early 2012, EU strategy by 2013)

• Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive

• Nature protection directives and policies to halt biodiversity loss

• Marine Strategy Framework Directive; Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)

• Other (e.g. sectoral, cross-cutting): maritime, agriculture; forestry; human health; disaster risk reduction; infrastructure e.g. energy, transport (regional policies); urban areas

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Impacts of Europe’s changing climate (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008), update in 2012

• Atmosphere and climate• Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice)• Marine biodiversity and ecosystems• Water quantity• Freshwater quality and biodiversity• Terrestrial ecosystems and

biodiversity• Soil• Agriculture and forestry• Human health• Vulnerability and economic aspects • (sectors)

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Objectives of the 2012 report

• Present past and projected climate change and impacts through indicators

• Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable/at risk

• Increase awareness of need for adaptation actions

• Present summary of adaptation actions across Europe

• Highlight the need for enhanced monitoring and scenarios at appropriate scale; communication of uncertainties and sharing of information

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Europe’s key past and projected impacts and risks (SOER2010), to be updated/extended

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Draft scope of the report, main structure

1. Introduction, EU Adaptation Policy, Indicator selection, Uncertainties2. Changes in the climate system

• Key climate variables• Cryosphere

3. Climate impacts on environmental systems• Ocenas and Marine environment• Coastal zones• Inland waters• Terrestrial ecosystems and Biodiversity• Soil

4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health• Agriculture• Forests and Forestry• Fisheries and aquaculture• Human health• Energy • Transport• Tourism

5. Vulnerability to climate change6. Indicator and data needs

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Terrestrial biodiversity indicators

• Conservation status

• Phenology: Plants and Animals

• Species Distribution

• plant species

• animal species (incl Arctic species index; butterflies and birds)

• Species Ecosystem Relationships

Invasive alien species: Examples on plants and animals

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Spring trends of phenology in Europe 1971-2000

Note: Each dot represents the mean for spring at a station. Dot size adjusted for clarity. A negative phenological trend corresponds to an earlier onset of spring.Source: (Estrella, Sparks, und Menzel 2009)

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Spatial pattern of trend in egg-laying dates of the pied flycatcher 1980-2004 corresponds to temperature trend

Note: Dots: weather stations used to calculate changes in local egg-laying dates (derived from temperature data); triangles: location of pied flycatcher laying date time series.Source: (Both und Marvelde 2007)

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Observed latitudinal shifts of four species over 25 years in Britain

Note: Observed latitudinal

shifts of the northern range

boundaries of species within four

exemplar taxonomic groups:

Spiders (85 species), ground

beetles (59 species), butterflies

(29 species), and grasshoppers

and allies (22 species). Positive

latitudinal shifts indicate

movement toward the north

(pole); negative values indicate

shifts toward the south (Equator).

Horizontal lines mark the

Median, boxes the 25 to 75%

quartile and whisker the range

(up to 1.5 times the

interqwuartile distance). Open

Circles are outliers.

Source: Modified after (Chen u.

a. 2011)

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European variations in the temporal trend of bird and butterfly CTI.

Note: A temporal increase in CTI directly reflects that the species assemblage of the site is increasingly composed of individuals belonging to species dependent on higher temperature. The height of a given arrow is proportional to the temporal trend and its direction corresponds to the sign of the slope (from south to north for positive slopes). The arrow is opaque if the trend is significant.Source: Devictor u. a. 2012)

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Changes in mammalian species richness until 2100

Note: Units in percentage, changes under two climate scenarios B1 (left) and A2 (right) in a 10’ resolution

Source: (Levinsky u. a. 2007)

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Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell 2050 and 2080

Note: Future distribution of climate niche space of Aglais urticae under the A2 climate change scenario

Northern parts of Europe are expected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large

areas of central Europe would become unsuitable. The worst case loss is 55% of its

climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46% loss under full dispersal.

Source: (J. Settele et al., 2008)

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Time schedule 2012 report

Period Activity

April - Oct/Nov 2011 ETC CCA Technical paper on evaluation of climate change state, impact and vulnerability indicators

15 June 2011 1st Advisory Group meeting

1 November 2011 first draft indicator chapters

30 Nov 2011 2nd Advisory Group meeting

Feb 2012 second draft chapters including indicators

April 2012 3rd Advisory Group meeting

May 2012 final draft chapters and full report

June-July 2012 external EIONET and other review

August-Sep 2012 inclusion of comments

October/November 2012 final editing, layouting

21 November 2012 publication and launch

DONE

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Expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios 2100

Note: The S550e scenario corresponds to a stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent and a global mean temperature increase of 2°C, the baseline scenario corresponds to a global mean temperature increase of more than 3°C.Source: (Alkemade, Bakkenes, und Eickhout 2011)

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Actual and potential future alien plant invasion hotspots (2081-90) under two extreme climate scenarios

Note: Potential future alien plant invasion hotspots in Germany and Austria under climate change, based on total 30 invasive alien vascular plant species. ColorsColours mark number of invasive alien species being at least suitable in an area.Source: (Kleinbauer u. a. 2010)

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Spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plants

Note: future simulation under BAMBU (Business-As-Might-Be-Usual, Climate A2) scenario.

Source: (Oliver Schweiger et al. 2012)

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