1 The Asian Aerosol Contribution The Asian Aerosol Contribution to North American PM Pollution: to North American PM Pollution: Recognizing Asian Transport Recognizing Asian Transport Composition and Concentration Composition and Concentration Modeling Regional Aerosol Burdens Modeling Regional Aerosol Burdens Richard “Tony” VanCuren California Air Resources Board ICAP October 22, 2004
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1 The Asian Aerosol Contribution to North American PM Pollution: Recognizing Asian Transport Composition and Concentration Modeling Regional Aerosol Burdens.
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The Asian Aerosol Contribution to The Asian Aerosol Contribution to North American PM Pollution:North American PM Pollution:
Recognizing Asian TransportRecognizing Asian TransportComposition and ConcentrationComposition and Concentration
Richard “Tony” VanCurenCalifornia Air Resources Board
ICAP October 22, 2004
2
MOPITT CO March-Dec. 2000 MOPITT CO March-Dec. 2000
3
The April 1998 Asian Dust Storms: The April 1998 Asian Dust Storms: a Natural Experimenta Natural Experiment
Image after Husar, 2000
VanCuren & Cahill, 2002
4
Asian Dust Frequency (% of days by month 1988-Asian Dust Frequency (% of days by month 1988-99)99)
Northeast Pacific BasinNortheast Pacific Basin
VanCuren & Cahill, 2002
5
Comparative Frequency and ConcentrationComparative Frequency and ConcentrationAsian Asian vsvs. African Dust in Eastern North . African Dust in Eastern North
AmericaAmerica
FREQUENCY CONCENTRATION|
VanCuren & Cahill, 2002
6
Composition of the Whole Asian Composition of the Whole Asian Plume:Plume:“Minimum Concentration” Hypothesis:• Lemma:
Asian pollutants in West are broadly distributed, and ~ equal;local pollutants are variable.
• Implications:Mean concentration = mean Asian + mean local concentrations. Lowest means imply least local pollutants - CRLA & LAVO.
Staged Analysis (Crater Lake & Lassen):• Selected Asian Days: First Approximation - composition
when Asian dust dominates and no local fires (low OC/S).• All Asian Days: Aerosol composition for all days with Asian
Dust - recognize local fire contribution.• All Days: Aerosol composition for all days in transport
season (March - October) - recognize local sources.
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Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
0.00.10.20.30.4
PC
1
ASIAN DUST & COMBUSTION 0.93
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
0.00.10.20.30.40.5
ASIAN DUST & COMBUSTION 0.79
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.10.00.10.20.30.4
CRLV_PCZ16_ALL
ASIAN DUST & COMBUSTION 0.87
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.4-0.2-0.00.2
PC
2
AGED SMOKE, REACTED SEA SALT 0.08
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.3-0.10.10.3
AGED SMOKE, REACTED SEA SALT 0.43
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.3
AGED SMOKE, REACTED SEA SALT 0.17
Cl-
Na
Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on
Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3--0.3
-0.00.30.6
PC
3
SEA SALT, NO SMOKE -0.05
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on
Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3--0.6
-0.3-0.00.3
FRESH SMOKE, NO SEA SALT 0.16
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.00.20.4 FRESH SMOKE, DUST, NO SALT 0.09
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.7
PC
4
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE (RICE) -0.03
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.8
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE (RICE), SOIL DUST -0.03
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.9
MOTOR VEHICLE, ROAD DUST 0.02
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
LOW SMOKEHIGH CONFIDENCE ASIAN DUST
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.00.2
PC
5
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE (GRASS), SOIL DUST -0.06
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
ALL DAYSHIGH CONFIDENCE ASIAN DUST
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.4
SOIL DUST, REACTED SEA SALT -0.09
Cl-
Na Al
Ca
Fe Si
Ti H
OC
EC
Kn
on Br
Pb
Zn
SO
4=
NO
3-
ALL DAYSMARCH - OCTOBER
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.4
PC
6
SOIL DUST, SEA SALT -0.03
Generalizing - known events to all Generalizing - known events to all daysdays
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Regression-Derived Source & CompositionRegression-Derived Source & CompositionBreakdown for Crater Lake / Mt. Lassen AerosolBreakdown for Crater Lake / Mt. Lassen Aerosol
MEAN S.D. MEAN S.D. MEAN S.D. MEAN % S.D. %
TOTAL MASS (PM10) 6.7 3.9 6.7 5.1 7.4 6.2 DUSTY ASIAN PLUME 6.4 4.2 4.9 4.3 4.5 4.0 60 54
Asian aerosol persists even after rain Asian aerosol persists even after rain
VanCuren et al., 2004
Trinity Max
Lassen Max
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Observational FindingsObservational Findings
• Asian Continental Aerosol Plume is persistent over western North America; detectable Alaska to Virgin Islands
• Average concentration is about 5 g/m3 PM10• Mass median diameter is 2-3 m• Average PM2.5 concentration is about 3 g/m3 • 1/2 of coarse, 3/4 of fines at CRLA & LAVO• Approximately ¼ of the new annual California AAQS
for PM10 and PM2.5• Approximately 1/10 of the new Federal annual PM10
NAAQS; 1/5 of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS• Asian aerosols are the regional “clean” background
in much of North America
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Modeling Western U.S. PM Air QualityModeling Western U.S. PM Air QualityFailure Modes: Estimation Error and Process ErrorFailure Modes: Estimation Error and Process Error
YOSE SO4
PINN SO4
Expected uncertainty in regional models.
Systematic divergence between
model and reality.
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Process error may be widespread:Process error may be widespread:Colorado Plateau fine soilColorado Plateau fine soil
GRBA BRCA MOZI
BRCA GRCA CANY
WEMI MEVE GRSA
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Regional Aerosol Events are not Resolved by Regional Aerosol Events are not Resolved by CMAQ:CMAQ: