1 Telecommunication Services & Latest Developments in Regulatory & Institutional Frameworks Session 1: Trends in Infrastructure Services UNCTAD, Palais.

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Telecommunication Services & Latest Developments in Regulatory & Institutional

FrameworksSession 1: Trends in Infrastructure Services

UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, Geneva

Mr. Houlin Zhao

Deputy Secretary-General, ITU

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

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Telecom Infrastructure Services Telecom Infrastructure Services

& Regulatory Frameworks& Regulatory Frameworks

1) First wave of regulatory reform

2) Telecom Markets on the Move

3) Convergence &

transition to IP

4) Conclusions

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 3

First Wave of Regulatory Reform - AimsFirst Wave of Regulatory Reform - Aims1) Overseeing the introduction of competition

& curbing anti-competitive behaviour

2) Safeguarding social interests which the market may

be unable to meet (e.g. market failures, externalities)

- including universal service

3) Consumer protection

4) Establishing ground rules over common resources

(spectrum, numbering & addresses).

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First wave of regulatory reformFirst wave of regulatory reform

Privately-owned fixed-line incumbents in %, by region, 2009

Growth of Regulators, worldwide 2009

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

14

43

86

106

124137

148 153

1990 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2009

Regulatory agencies, world (cumulative)

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

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Competition in selected ICT services, 2009Competition in selected ICT services, 2009

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

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Telecom markets on the moveTelecom markets on the move

Growth in ICTs, 1998-2009

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators DatabaseInternational Telecommunication Union – March 2010

Strong growth in mobile & 3G telephonyStrong growth in mobile & 3G telephony

5 bn total cellular subscribers, 1 bn mobile broadband subscribers in 2010.

6.5 bn total cellular mobile subscribers, of which 43% 3G in 2014.

Source: ITU (left); Morgan Stanley, Ovum (right).

Mobile subscribers (total & 3G) 2007-2014

3'4133'909

4'5875'024

5'567 5'8426'179 6'456

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3G OtherGlobal Mobile BB Subscribers

15

11

8

5.6

0.51.7

3.2

-

100200

300

400

500600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mill

ion

s

0

24

6

8

1012

14

16

Mobile BB subscribers 3G % mobile

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

Mobile broadband overtook fixed broadband Mobile broadband overtook fixed broadband in 2008 & growing fastin 2008 & growing fast

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database.

Fixed & Mobile Broadband Subscribers

7

429

688

99153

3071

154

282

473

276

210

344403

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mill

ion

s Mobile BB subscribers

Fixed BB subs

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 8

Growth in countries with 3G networksGrowth in countries with 3G networks

Global growth in IMT-2000 countries, 2000-2009

4 9 18 26

1922

0

9

12

14

17

21

0

2124

33

36

38

42

149

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

nb c

ount

ries

Europe

CIS

Asia-Pacific

Arab States

Americas

Africa

219

3043

70

89

109

130

9

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

Network convergence driving regulatory reformNetwork convergence driving regulatory reform

• Network convergence enables convergence of services.• With the shift to NGNs, distinctions between network infrastructure,

technology, and the services and application become blurred.

From intermodal competition to intramodal competition

Transition from PSTN to all-IP

Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)

Converged services

From intermodal competition to intramodal competition

Transition from PSTN to all-IP

Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)

From intermodal competition to intramodal competition

Transition from PSTN to all-IP

Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)

From intermodal competition to intramodal competition

Transition from PSTN to all-IP

Drastic change in market structure (paradigm shift)

Converged services

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

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Growth of social networking services - TwitterGrowth of social networking services - Twitter

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

• Confidential information stored in a regular smartphone:

• Passwords

• Contacts

• Social networks

• App information

• Banking transactions

• Email account information

• GPS location and mobility patterns!

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A data / privacy time bomb?

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

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Second wave of regulatory reformSecond wave of regulatory reform

Independent converged regulators - From separate telecom & broadcasting regulatory institutions to

converged regulatory institutions with responsibility for content

• Licensing– From service licenses to general authorizations, unified & class licenses– From technology-specific licenses to technology-neutral licenses

• More flexible spectrum allocation– From administrative approach towards flexible spectrum allocation

practices (sharing, trading, etc.) for new access networks

• Network & bottleneck facilities– From exclusive ownership to passive & active infrastructure-sharing– Open access to network and bottleneck facilities (fibre backbones, LLU) – great national gateway liberalization

• Universal access & services- From fixed-line voice towards broadband universal access

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 14

Impact of Financial Crisis on ISS RegulationImpact of Financial Crisis on ISS Regulation1) Investment in telecom sector continues,

but investors cautious & want concrete business plans

2) In response, regulators are prioritizing incentives for

investment and working closely with investment

promotion agencies (IPAs)

3) Government stimulus packages announced in 50

countries are an opportunity for financing

as many prioritize broadband investments

(mainly in fixed networks).

ITU Confronting the Crisis series of reports: 1) Its Impact on the ICT Industry - February 2009 2) ICT Stimulus Plans for Economic Growth - October 2009

www.itu.int/crisis2009/www.itu.int/crisis2009/

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010 16

ConclusionsConclusions1) Regulatory reform enables technological change &

must be able to adapt to accommodate it

2) The financial crisis has made business conditions

more challenging, but ICT sector has proved resilient.

3) Government stimulus packages are an important

opportunity for the sector

4) New issues are arising all the time,

discussed annually at

ITU Global Symposium for Regulators

Thank you for your attention

17International Telecommunication Union – March 2010