1 Sustainable integration of solar energy in the Mediterranean Roberto VIGOTTI Chair Renewable Committee at IEA and OME
Dec 19, 2015
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Sustainable integration of solar energy in the Mediterranean
Roberto VIGOTTIChair Renewable Committee at IEA and OME
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Solar energy in a nutshell
Impressive development in Europe of on-grid systems through supporting mechanisms
• Costs and prices are going down• Equipment is becoming more reliable• It takes little time for a market to take-off (e.g. France, Spain, Italy)• PV could become competitive with retail prices between 2010 and 2015
In the south, PV is progressing in off grid
• 16,5 MWp in Morroco, 5 MWp in Egypt (towards 15 MWp)• Many jobs involved• PV is used only for isolated applications in projects financed with grants
or bi-lateral cooperation
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Germany; 35%
Japan; 28%
USA; 12%
Mediterranean; 5%
Rest of the World; 19%
Germany; 25%
Japan; 18%
USA; 15%
Mediterranean; 19%
Rest of the World; 22%
2006 ~ 7 TWh
2010 ~25 TWh
Outlook : PV electricity generation 2006-2010
Source : Winfried Hoffmann - EPIA
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Greece; 2 %
Spain; 40%France;
19%
Italy; 18%
REST; 21%
Greece; 17%
Spain; 27%
France; 22%
Italy; 25%
REST; 9%
2006 ~400 GWh
2010 ~5 TWh
In the Mediterranean region
Source : Winfried Hoffmann - EPIA
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The role of CSP
CSP becoming an option in the Mediterranean region
• ISCCS Projects undergoing : Algeria, Morocco, Egypt
• Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) initiative promotes CSP generation in SEMCs with HVDC connections to Europe
3 Studies : MED, TRANS and AQUA-CSP Projects proposal in Gaza and Yemen
• OME coordinates 2 projects involving TREC members (DLR, KerneEn.) REMAP : evaluation of CSP potential MED-CSD : co-gen of electricity and desalinated water
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Preliminary considerations
3 major challenges for the energy sector in the Mediterranean basin
• Allow access to energy for all
• Get access to available sources of energy to face an energy demand growing fast
• Limit impacts of the generation sector on the environment (Mediterranean region vulnerable to climate change according to IPCC)
No unique or standard solution, but sustainability implies
• Preservation and reasonable use of fossil fuels
• Promotion of RE such as solar energy (which is the largest resource in the region) or wind
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Solar energy : what are the barriers 1
Very high costs (PV in Europe : 250-650 €/MWh, CSP in solar belt : 140-250 €/MWh)
No viable project without financial support
Cost decrease perspectives for PV and CSP are good on the medium term (2020)
R&D and financial support should help drive the costs down and make these technologies competitive without subsidies; more projects and industrial pilots to be implemented.
the political will have to play a major role, as the future welfare of the Mediterranean region cannot be achieved if minimal costs options are taken using relatively low cost fossil fuels. By favouring international and national financing rendered possible by the general public support for reducing GHG and for planet conservation, and by rendering consistent the actions of the different stakeholders for solar development.
Solar energy : what are the barriers 2
Large land surface needed
But considerable potential on roofs, large arid and marginal areas
But some aspects need to be addressed : -remote siting from power users,
-distance to the grid for connection,
-availability of water for cooling or gas for hybridation
Intermittency
But limit for stability far from being reached for PV and wind
thermal storage possible for CSP
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Context and scope of the work
Projects focused today on powering remote areas with off-grid systems
Little or no efforts done in the field of grid-connected applications
Main applications proposed for OME action-plan :
• Village power and hybrid systems and mini-grids
• Grid-connected PV systems for residential, commercial and industrial roofs
• Very Large Scale PV, as defined by IEA-PVPS Task 8
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1 - Village power, hybrids and mini-grids
Village power, hybrids and mini-grids-from several kW up to hundreds of kW : powering productive uses with a secure system and extended time of use
• Assess the resource potential of technologies to be mixed with PV for hybridation, such as wind, diesel, mini hydro, storage
• Define and finance replicable pilot projects using appropriate technologies• Evaluate the market and the drivers for large scale deployment also to improve quality,
reliability and economics
Project proposal to be submitted in 2008 to EC-FP : several case studies in SMCs
External partners :
• IEA-Task 11• EPIA-ARE• Lab skilled in Hybrids and mini-grids (e.g. Univ. of Kassel, Germany)
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2 – Grid-connected PV on roofs
Analyse
• Conditions and possible date of parity between PV electricity and retail prices (see ECN study for Europe)
• Present PV development plan in the region• Present retail prices of electricity• Mid-term and long term projections of PV electricity prices• Institutional frameworks• Possibilities of technology transfer
Help stakeholders identify
• Financing mechanisms for the projects• Incentive measures adapted to the
institutional frameworks
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3 – Very Large Scale PV (VLS-PV)
IEA-Task 8 : « Energy from the desert »
Cases in Morocco and Tunisia
• Cost of electricity : 300-390 €/MWh• No specific legal framework and no fee-in tariffs to support the development
of these applications
Work proposed
Carry out , in partnership with IEA-Task 8,a pilot project in a given country, to bereplicable in other places
Concentrate on identifying innovativefinancing schemes and propose adaptationsof institutional framework
Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) System
Solar resource analysis by using satellite images
(analysis area (×10(analysis area (×1044kmkm22))))
GobiSahara
TharNegev
Sonora
Great Sandy162.8743.0
44.317.8
18.735.4
Sonora
Sandy
Sahara
GobiThar
Negev
Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) System
Assumption of Cost Analysis
• Capacity : 100MW
• Array : South facing, Fixed
• Tilt angle : 10º - 40º
• PV module : multi crystalline Si (12.8%)
• P.R. : 75% (depends on region)
• Degradation : 0.5%/year
• Life-time : 30 years
• Module price : 1 - 4 USD/W
• Inverter price : 0.27 - 0.41 USD/W
• Interest rate : 3%
• O & M : 9 persons (3 team for 3 shifts)
• Transmission : 100 km from the site
Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) System
0
5
10
15
20
25
1500 2000 2500 3000Annual global horizontal irradiation (kWh/m2/year)
Ge
ner
atio
n c
ost
(US
cen
t /kW
h)
GobiSainshand
GobiHuhhot
SaharaOuarzazateSahara- NemaNegev
2 USD/W
3 USD/W
4 USD/WModule price
1 USD/W
Sonora
0
5
10
15
20
25
1500 2000 2500 3000
GobiSainshand
GobiHuhhot
Sahara
Thar Great Sandy
Sahara-
2 USD/W
3 USD/W
4 USD/WModule price
1 USD/W
Sonora
Indicative generation cost
Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) System
PV Potential Map
World primary energysupply in 2004
453 EJ
PV energy supplyfrom 6 deserts1 513 EJ
Sonora = 6.0
Negev = 1.4
Sahara = 315Thar = 13
PV potential world map (103×TWh)
Gobi = 67
Sandy =18
Solar Electricity Generation
market evolution
1. Autonomous systems (Solar Home Systems)
2. Rooftop/BIPV systems
(for grid connected applications)
3. PV Power plants (peak/bulk power)
Utility business!
Sahara/Mediterranean region
Country Morocco(2002)
Tunisia(2003)
Portugal(2002)
Spain(2002)
Population (Mill.) 29.7 9.9 10.2 40.8
Area (km²) 446,550 163,610 92,040 505,960
Population density (1/km²) 67 61 111 81
GDP per capita (€) 1,532 2,200 12,500 17,100
Energy consumption per capita (toe)* 0.48 0.83 2.52 3.24
Total energy consumption (Mtoe) 14.3 8.2 25.7 132.2
Total electricity production (TWh) 17.2 11.8 46.1 246.1
Electricity price level(€-cent/kWh) ~8-12 ~2-5 ~12 ~9
Annual solar radiation (kWh/m²*a)
1,700- 2,100
1,700- 2,100
1,500- 1,900
1,200- 1,800
Feed-in tariff for renewable electricity no no yes yes
Cap for PV (MWp) --- --- 150 150
PV industry no no small large
November 2006
Evaluation of general conditions with respect to VLS-PV
Tunisia Morocco Spain Portugal
Geographic conditions * 5 5 3.5 4
Electricity market general ** 1.6 2.4 3 4
Market for PV-systems *** 1 1.5 5 2.3
Presence of market players **** 1 2 4.5 2
SUMMARY after emphasis 2.3 2.5 4.0 3.2
* Solar radiation, useful area** Feed-in tariff, electricity price, subsidies, tax reduction, deregulation of the electricity market*** Market for grid-connected solutions, market growth, experience for VLS PV, procedure for PV grid connection, acceptance for PV in the future, experience with PV technology**** Market players, distribution channels
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1
2
3
4
5
6
Tunisia Morocco Spain Portugal
Index : 1 very low 2 low 3 average4 good5 very good
Solar Electricity Generation
technology evolution
1. Wafer based (c-Si, mc-Si)
2.Thin film
(a-Si, CIGS, CdTe)
3. High Concentration (HCPV)
Socio-economic considerations
induced economic effects
Indi
rect
dem
and
indu
ced
by th
e di
rect
dem
and
Introduction of VLS-PVD
irec
t dem
and
PV ModuleManufacturing
BOSManufacturing
PlantConstruction
Range in induced effect
Electricity
Cable
Plastic
Aluminum
Silicon
Others
Glass
Cement
Steel
Range in direct effect
PlantOperation
Economic: - production and export of solar electricity- production and export of PV components- CO2 credits
Social: - create employment/jobs- international co-operation- technology transfer
Equality: - fair access for everybody to affordable and sustainable energy solutions
Security: - sustainable future energy source
Environment: - climate change (Kyoto protocol)
Recognition: - model country in developing region
Socio-economic considerations
goals/benefits
Assembly of PV solar panels : Local use/export
Manufacturing of PV solar cells : Local use/export
Manufacturing of silicon wafers : Local use/export
Manufacturing of silicon material: Local use/export
Roadmap for developing countries
local industry
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Challenge:thin film technology using 1% of cell silicon -> potential reduction in costs of 50% by 2010
Solar grade silicon
Ingots & wafers
Solar cells
Solar modules
PVsystems
17%Cost structure 18% 20% 22% 23%
~ 40% ~ 30% ~ 20% ~ 7% ~ 7%Margins
Present shortage expectedto ease in 2008
PV Technology and Value Chain
Awareness creation : all levels
Transfer application know how: renewable energy institutes/ energy suppliers/installers
Transfer system technology : renewable energy institutes/ energy suppliers/installers
Transfer state-of-the-art techn..: renewable energy institutes/ educational institutes
Transfer next generation techn. : educational institutes
Roadmap for developing countries
education/technology transfer
Connected areas
• Irrigation • Agriculture• Sea water desalination• Hydrogen technology• Power transmission• Power storage
November 2006 Peter van der Vleuten, Free Energy International
IEA PVPS, Task 8,Study on Very Large Scale Power Generation Systems (VLS-PV)
• Desert regions contain abundant and inexhaustible sources of clean energy and fresh water
• Very large scale solar electricity generation provides economic, social and environmental benefits, security of electricity supply, fair access to affordable and sustainable energy solutions
• Connected areas are power storage and transmission, irrigation, agriculture, water desalination and hydrogen economy
Very Large Scale solar electricity generation is economically
and socially attractive for desert (bordering) countries
Summary
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Progressive implementation of a VLS-PV plant
Project will aim at implementating progressively a VLS-PV plant, in several phases
• 1st phase : flat and CPV plant • In parallel : feasibility study for the whole concept
Main tasks of the feasibility study
• Institutional aspects adaptations• Technical aspects• Externalities• Risk management• Innovative financing schemes• Technology transfer aspects
In 2008 :
• Project proposal to EC-FP for the feasibility study• Detailed definition of the 1st phase : CPV plant
External partners
• IEA-Task 8, Financing sector, CPV manufacturer (e.g. Concentrix Solar)JRC-IPTS
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Scope of the work
to get a clear idea of the potential of CSP in their country to define a roadmap for the development of CSPto provide tools for analysing proposals from the industry
• Elaboration of a GIS based tool available to OME members Transmission network Gas network (ISCCS)
• Economic evaluation of the cost of generation of CSP plants in SEMCs• Potential technology transfer• Relevant financing mechanisms for CSP applications
External partners
• Ecole des Mines de Paris (Meteorological data)• ENEA or CNRS-Promes for GIS development• Close ties with TREC and SolarPaces
Connected areastransmission networks
Solar electricity for local use and export
Hydrogen for local use and export
Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) System
Sahara:K alahari:Namib:
Sahara:Sahara:K alahari:K alahari:Namib:Namib:
8602614
86086026261414
Arabia:Gobi:K ara kum:K yzyl kum:Takla Makan:K avir:Syrian:Thar:Lut:
Arabia:Arabia:Gobi:Gobi:K ara K ara kumkum::K yzylK yzyl kumkum::Takla Makan:Takla Makan:K avir:K avir:Syrian:Syrian:Thar:Thar:Lut:Lut:
233130
353027262620
5
233233130130
353530302727262626262020
55
Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Simpson:
Great Victoria:Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Great Sandy:Simpson:Simpson:
654015
656540401515
Great Basin:Chihuahuan:Sonoran:Mojave:
Great Basin:Great Basin:ChihuahuanChihuahuan::Sonoran:Sonoran:Mojave:Mojave:
494531
7
494945453131
77
Patagonian:Atacama:Patagonian:Patagonian:Atacama:Atacama:
671467671414Sahara:
K alahari:Namib:
Sahara:Sahara:K alahari:K alahari:Namib:Namib:
8602614
86086026261414
Sahara:K alahari:Namib:
Sahara:Sahara:K alahari:K alahari:Namib:Namib:
8602614
86086026261414
Arabia:Gobi:K ara kum:K yzyl kum:Takla Makan:K avir:Syrian:Thar:Lut:
Arabia:Arabia:Gobi:Gobi:K ara K ara kumkum::K yzylK yzyl kumkum::Takla Makan:Takla Makan:K avir:K avir:Syrian:Syrian:Thar:Thar:Lut:Lut:
233130
353027262620
5
233233130130
353530302727262626262020
55
Arabia:Gobi:K ara kum:K yzyl kum:Takla Makan:K avir:Syrian:Thar:Lut:
Arabia:Arabia:Gobi:Gobi:K ara K ara kumkum::K yzylK yzyl kumkum::Takla Makan:Takla Makan:K avir:K avir:Syrian:Syrian:Thar:Thar:Lut:Lut:
233130
353027262620
5
233233130130
353530302727262626262020
55
Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Simpson:
Great Victoria:Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Great Sandy:Simpson:Simpson:
654015
656540401515
Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Simpson:
Great Victoria:Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Great Sandy:Simpson:Simpson:
654015
656540401515
Great Basin:Chihuahuan:Sonoran:Mojave:
Great Basin:Great Basin:ChihuahuanChihuahuan::Sonoran:Sonoran:Mojave:Mojave:
494531
7
494945453131
77
Great Basin:Chihuahuan:Sonoran:Mojave:
Great Basin:Great Basin:ChihuahuanChihuahuan::Sonoran:Sonoran:Mojave:Mojave:
494531
7
494945453131
77
Patagonian:Atacama:Patagonian:Patagonian:Atacama:Atacama:
671467671414
Patagonian:Atacama:Patagonian:Patagonian:Atacama:Atacama:
671467671414
(unit: 10,000km2)
World Deserts
Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) System
1 300 000 km21 300 000 km2
8 600 000 km28 600 000 km2
Covered by =15% PV modules (0.5 space factor, assuming 0.7 system performance ratio)
Covered by =15% PV modules (0.5 space factor, assuming 0.7 system performance ratio)
(=114 PWh/y =114×1012kWh/y)(=114 PWh/y =114×1012kWh/y)
412 EJ/yearPV Electricity412 EJ/yearPV Electricity
World Primary Energy Supply In 2002 = 433 EJ/year
World Primary Energy Supply In 2002 = 433 EJ/year
Total Land Surface
Total Land Surface
SaharaSahara
Total Earth Surface
Total Earth Surface
GobiGobi
(1 EJ = 1018J)(1 EJ = 1018J)
Solar Pyramid