1 Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment Practical Local Government Strategies Steve Gawler ICLEI Oceania 14 May 2010.

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Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment

Practical Local Government StrategiesSteve Gawler

ICLEI Oceania14 May 2010

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We can’t keep on building higher and higher levees

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What is ICLEI Oceania?

Local government association and agency

→Not-for-profit

→Membership-based

→International

Oceania Secretariat

Dedicated to Local Action for Sustainability

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ICLEI Oceania’s Work on Climate Change

• Mitigation: Cities for Climate Protection Campaign (since 1997), new CCP Integrated Action program 2010

• Adaptation:– CCP Adaptation Initiative (2007-2009)– Local Government Climate Change Adaptation Toolkit

(2008/09)– Adaptive and Resilient Communities (ongoing)– Indonesian Cities Climate Alliance (ongoing)– Resilient Cities 2010 Conference

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Sustainable infrastructure?

Sustainability is the capacity of cities and towns to meet the needs of current generations without compromising the ability of future generations to do the same.

Sustainable development must simultaneously protect and enhance the Earth’s life support systems. A continuing process, this requires the sharing and management of economic, environmental and social resources equitably within the community.

ICLEI Oceania 2010

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Adaptation and Resilience

Elements of Resilience

• Redundancy – substitutable services when one system is disrupted

• Flexibility – to absorb sudden shocks and slow onset challenges, avoiding catastrophic failure

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Adaptation and Resilience

• Capacity to reorganize – to change and evolve rather than returning to previous methods

• Capacity to learn – to internalize and respond to previous experiences, avoid repeating mistakes

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Gold Coast City Adaptation Principles

Infrastructure

Proactively plan and deliver infrastructure that supports the development of resilience in communities and is capable of adapting to a changing climate during its lifecycle or at the time of asset renewal

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So, we can’t keep on building higher and higher

doorways!

Fail-safe or Safe-fail?

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What is the ICLEI Climate Change adaptation planning process?

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ARC Program Framework

ICLEI Capacity Building Program:

Adaptive and Resilient

Communities (ARC)

Analysing Climate Change Risks &Opportunities

Assessing Council’s Adaptive Capacity

Develop Options & Assumptions

Systematically Reconsider Options

Assess Increase in Adaptive Capacity and

Resilience

Implement Adaptation Action Plan

Translating Priorities into Actions

Phase 1:

Establish the Context

Phase 2:

Prioritise Areas for

Action & Set Goals

Phase 3:

Develop Adaptation Action Plan

Phase 4:

Monitor and Report

Phase 5:

Review and Restrategise

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ARC Phase 1: Establish the Context

1.1 Establish an adaptation working group

1.2 Teleconference: Objectives of ARC Program

1.3 Climate change adaptation communications brief

1.4 Council questionnaire on climate change adaptation

1.5 Council document mapping

1.6 ARC Workshop 1: Establish the Context

1.7 Internal stakeholder analysis

1.8 Local climate change impacts research inventory

1.9 External stakeholder analysis

1.10 CCA context review

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ARC Facilitation Approach

ICLEI Oceania

Technicalfacilitator

ARC Wiki

Council Working

Group

Council Primary Contact

Council Secondary Contact

Council Administration

Cou

ncil

ors

Ext

erna

l Sta

keho

lder

s

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Climate Change Scenarios

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Climate Scenarios

• Coherent, plausible description of a future state of the climate

• Means of understanding the potential impacts of climate change

• Not a prediction of the future climate, but based on certain assumptions

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Scenarios - Why Bother?

Select one or two scenarios to:• Provide a consistent basis for assessing climate

risks • Narrow down adaptation options for planning and

decision-making (‘What are we adapting to?’)

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Climate Change Scenario B1Lower emissions growth scenario

Assumption:• Rapid shift to less fossil-fuel intensive industries.

Expected change:• Weak growth in CO2 emissions until 2040, then

decline. • Global temperature increase relative to 1990 of

1.8°C (1.1 to 2.9°C) is likely

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Emissions Growth Scenarios

Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.

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Climate Change Scenario A1BMedium emissions growth scenario

Assumption:• Balanced use of different energy sources – not just

fossil fuels.

Expected change:• CO2 emissions increase until 2030 and begin to

decline around 2050• By 2100 a global temperature increase of 2.8°C (1.7

to 4.4°C) is likely.

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Emissions Growth Scenarios

Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.

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Climate Change Scenario A1FIHigher emissions growth scenario

Assumption:• Strong economic growth based on continued

dependence on fossil fuels

Expected change:• CO2 concentrations more than triple, relative to pre-

industrial levels, by 2100.• A global temperature increase of 4.0°C (2.4 to 6.4°C)

is likely.

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Emissions Growth Scenarios

Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.

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Source: Will Steffen/Department of Climate Change (2009): Climate Change 2009 - Faster Change and More Serious Risks

Observed Emissions

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What Are We Adapting To?• Observed global warming:

– Observed change in average global temperature 1900-1999: +0.7˚C

– Observed average annual temperature difference in 1998-2007 when compared with 1961-1990 period: +0.6˚C

• Projected mid-range global warming:– By 2030: +0.9˚C– By 2070: +2.6˚C– By 2100: +3.7˚C

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Risk & Opportunities Management Framework

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From Impacts to Risks & Opportunities

Objectives: • To become familiar with key projected impacts• To understand which impacts pose risks to

which organisational goals

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Why Risk Management?

RiskInability to meet peak demand

ImpactHigher electricity demand

Expected change:Increase in # of hot days

Climate VariableTemperature

Climate change per se may not be a ‘risk’, but…

…expected changes lead to specific impacts…

…that pose a risk to (or an opportunity for) an organisation achieving its goals.

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Scope of the Risk Management Process

Geographic scope: – All of your LGA?– Only coastal or alpine areas?

Organisational scope:– Risks to council?– Community risk?

Time horizon considered:– Until 2030?– Until 2070?

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Initial council risk assessments

Priority Type of impact 1st priority Increase in extreme weather events (storms) 2nd priority

Increase in heatwaves

3rd priority

Water availability and food security

Priority Type of impact 1st priority Increase in extreme weather events (storms)

2nd priority Sea level rise

3rd priority

Expected lack of surface water

Localised flooding problems Temperature increase

Kogarah

Canada B

ayH

olroyd

Priority Type of impact 1st priority Temperature increase

2nd priority

Sea level rise

3rd priority

Drought / water availability

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Conceptual Modelling

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Conceptual Modelling: Objectives

• Establishing the CONTEXTCONTEXT:

– Which climate change impacts need to be managed by council?

– What effects will these climate change impacts have on council and the community?

– Which key elements of council’s operations can be used to address these impacts and effects?

– Where are the main gaps of addressing climate change impacts at council?

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Conceptual Modelling: Step 1

For each impact, choose Target Condition• A state that you want your council or community

to achieve in relation to a particular climate change impact

Adaptability to

coastal erosion from sea-level rise

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Target Condition

Conceptual Modelling: Step 2

Choose Key Elements (Council Functions)

Choose Council functions that would need to be involved in achieving the Target Condition

Natural Resource

Management

Adaptability to

coastal erosion from sea-level rise

Key Element

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Target Condition

Key Element

Conceptual Modelling: Step 3

Identify Direct FactorsProcesses or activities that need to be undertaken to contribute

to Target ConditionsCan be things council is already doing OR things it should be

doing

Natural Resource

Management

Coastal habitat

extension

Adaptability to

coastal erosion from sea-level rise

Direct Factor

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Conceptual Modelling: Step 4

Identify Indirect FactorsProcesses or activities that influence or determine the

success of a Direct Factor

Target Condition

Key Elements

Natural Resource

Management

Coastal habitat

extension

Adaptability to

coastal erosion from sea-level rise

Direct Factor

Acquisition of private land

Species conservation

program

Indirect Factors

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Conceptual Modelling: Step 5Identify ConditionsBroader issues that affect the entire municipality

Can be social, economic or environmental

• Sea-change culture

• Tourism-dependent economy

Target Condition

Adaptability to

coastal erosion from sea-level rise

Conditions Key Elements

Natural Resource

Management

Coastal habitat

extension

Direct Factor

Acquisition of private land

Species conservation

program

Indirect Factors

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Conceptual Modelling: Step 6Risk & Opportunities Analysis• Existing controls• Current gaps• Leverage partnerships, e.g.

cooperation with other ARC councils?

= Existing controls

= Current gaps

= Leverage partnerships

• Sea-change culture

• Tourism-dependent economy

Target Condition

Adaptability to

coastal erosion from sea-level rise

Conditions Key Elements

Natural Resource

Management

Coastal habitat

extension

Direct Factor

Acquisition of private land

Species conservation

program

Indirect Factors

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ARC Program Framework

ICLEI Capacity Building Program:

Adaptive and Resilient

Communities (ARC)

Analysing Climate Change Risks &Opportunities

Assessing Council’s Adaptive Capacity

Develop Options & Assumptions

Systematically Reconsider Options

Assess Increase in Adaptive Capacity and

Resilience

Implement Adaptation Action Plan

Translating Priorities into Actions

Phase 1:

Establish the Context

Phase 2:

Prioritise Areas for

Action & Set Goals

Phase 3:

Develop Adaptation Action Plan

Phase 4:

Monitor and Report

Phase 5:

Review and Restrategise

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Some final thoughts

Future sustainable infrastructure planning has to be done in context of Climate Change and the principles of resilience and sustainability:

•redundancy•flexibility•capacity to reorganise,•capacity to learn

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Some final thoughtsCouncil must own the process and outcomes

Complex, multi-dimensional, challenging, new paradigms

Political dimensions

Time and resources required, especially challenging for

small councils – clusters?

External support?

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Thank you

CCP Adapt program and modules available in 2010 - 2011

ICLEI Oceania

www.iclei.org/oceania