1 Socio-Economic Benefits Assessment on Weather Service in China Dr. LV Minghui Meeting of The WMO Forum: Social and Economic Applications and Benefits.

预警信息发布1Socio-Economic Benefits

Assessment on Weather Service in China

Dr. LV Minghui

Meeting of The WMO Forum: Social and Economic

Applications and Benefits of Weather, Climate and

Water Services, 8-11 April 2013

China Meteorological

Administration

Public Meteorological Service

centre

CONTENTS

1. Introduction

2. Benefits of public weather

service

3. Benefits of weather service

for specific sectors

4. Weather service benefit in

disaster prevention and

mitigation

5. Conclusion

1 Introduction

Various Meteorological Disasters in China 34 million hectares farming land are hit by meteorological disasters per year.

600 million people afflicted by severe meteorological disasters, including

droughts, rainstorms, floods and tropical cyclones.

Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services in

China the average annual death toll of meteorological disasters has decreased from

about 4,500 people in the 1990’s to about 2,500 people in the 21st century.

the economic losses caused by meteorological disasters to GDP has decreased

from 3%~6% in the 1980’s to today’s 1%~3%.

2 Benefits of public weather service （ 1）

The public can access public weather service by various media and communication

meas. China has established modern platforms for information release.

Example：The public’s expectation of public weather service during 2008 Beijing Olympics

was fully satisfied.

China Meteorological Administration enjoyed the best popularity of 27 state-

level government bodies under the survey of public image conducted by Annual

Report on Science Communication of China (2010-2011) and ranked second in

terms of reputation, which also showed to some extent the public’s positive

opinion on meteorological department and its work.

2 Benefits of public weather service （ 2）

Benefits assessment of public weather service

Survey data of Satisfaction of Public Weather Service in China from 2009 to 2012

Year Number of

Samples

Number of

Samples in Cities

Number of Samples

in Countryside

Modes of

Investigation

2009 45,800 30,500 15,300 Face-to-face

2010 28,700 18,200 10,500 Telephone

2011 49,700 32,453 17,247 Telephone

2012 40,699 25,441 15,258 Telephone

Total 164,899 106,594 58,305 —

87.5

83.5

85.786.2

85.6

82.3

83.984.5

89.1

84.6

87.387.8

2009 2010 2011 2012

系列1系列2系列3

Satisfaction of PWS

Satisfaction of PWS in Urban areas

Satisfaction of PWS in Rural areas

year

82.8 82.6

79.7 79.9

Forecast Accuracy

Meteological Element Forecast

Precipitation Forecast

Severe Weather Forecast

Accuracy Evaluation of PWS, 2009

83.584.4

85.6

77.4

Satisfaction of PWS

Service Information

Information Release

Meteorological Knowledge

Popularization

Satisfaction Evaluation of PWS, 2010

2 Benefits of public weather service （ 3）

Based on the above surveys, meteorological department shall enhance the

forecast accuracy and the construction of information release channels, launch

public projects for meteorological knowledge popularization, and improve

weather service products and the service quality, so as to provide better weather

service for the public.76.1

76.3

76.6

2010 2011 2012 year

Satisfaction Evaluation of Weather Forecast Accuracy, 2010-2012

61.5

20.1

14.4

4.0

61.3

19.4 15.6

3.7

Accuracy Practicality Timeliness Convenience

2011 2012 （Unit：percent)

3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （ 1）

The specialized weather service well demonstrates meteorology’s value and

significance as a production factor.

The most common method adopted for benefits evaluation of specialized weather

service is Delphi method.

Year Industries Number of Samples Contribution rate

Effective

Value(hundred

million)

2009 Superhighway 413 0.8% 22~28

2010 Tourism 316 0.59% 74.34

2010 Electric Power 400 0.22% 73.56

2011 Wind Power 567 1.85% 8.85

2011 Expressway 460 1.09% 61

Total 5 2156 0.22~1.85% 239.75~245.75

3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （ 2）

Benefits assessment on weather service in road transportation.

No. Provinces

(municipalities)

Contribution of weather

service on provincial

highways (%)

Economic returns of weather service

on highways (¥100 million)

1 Shandong 1.01 0.0727

2 Shanghai 0.98 0.3430

3 Zhejiang 0.88 Not supplied

4 Fujian 0.87 0.5224

5 Guangdong 0.86 1.46

6 Shanxi 0.83 0.4835

7 Jiangsu 0.82 6.02

(the ratio of input to output is 1:8.18）

8 Chongqing 0.6 2.7576

9 Liaoning 0.58 0.796

10 Hubei 0.57 0.6229

Economic Returns of Weather Service in Superhighway in 10 Provinces, 2009

Distribution of main superhighway-sensitive weather elements in seven provinces

3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （ 3）

In 2011, for further work assessment project for weather service benefits in

road transportation.

the contribution of weather service in road transportation was 1.09% and the

economic returns at about 6.1 billion yuan.

weather service contributed most in road transportation and operation, with

contributions of 1.14% and 1.13% respectively, followed by emergency aids at

1.11%. Weather service contributed comparatively low in road maintenance and

construction, with the contributions at only 1.07% and 1.02% respectively.1.02%

1.14%1.13%

1.07%

1.11%

construction Transport Management maintenance Emergency Rescue

Contribution ratios of meteorological services on provincial superhighways in 2011.

3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （ 4）

Benefits assessment on weather service in tourism.

Economic Returns of Weather Service in Tourism in 13 Provinces, 2010

No. Provinces

(municipalities)

Contribution of weather

service in tourism (%)

Economic returns of weather

service in tourism

(¥100 million)

1 Beijing 1.09 26.62

2 Guangxi 0.84 5.87

3 Shandong 0.78 —

4 Yunnan 0.78 6.3

5 Fujian 0.74 8.38

6 Sichuan 0.72 13.62

7 Qinghai 0.59 60.10

8 Anhui 0.53 —

9 Gansu 0.46 0.88

10 Tibet 0.43 0.24

11 Hainan 0.29 0.61

12 Shanghai 0.23 1.81

13 Ningxia 0.20 0.11

Weather phenomena Critical values Valid forecast period (h)

Rain Heavy rain

（25~49.9mm/d） 12~24

Snow Moderate snow

（2.6~4.9mm/d） 12~24

Wind force 6~7 12~24

Lightning & Thunderstorm — 6~12

Road icing — 12~24

Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Tourist Industry

3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （ 5）

Benefits assessment on weather service in electric power & wind power sectors.

Economic Returns of Weather Service in Electric Power in 18 Provinces, 2010

No. Provinces

(municipalities)

Contribution of weather

service in electric power

sector (%)

Economic returns of

weather service in electric

power sector (¥100 million)

1 Hunan 0.33 3.96

2 Hubei 0.31 3.34

3 Tianjin 0.29 —

4 Heilongjiang 0.26 —

5 Jiangsu 0.24 5.35

6 Inner Mongolia 0.24 2.84

7 Jiangxi 0.24 —

8 Guizhou 0.22 0.76

9 Liaoning 0.21 4.46

10 Xinjiang 0.21 —

11 Chongqing 0.20 —

12 Shanxi 0.18 0.66

13 Guangdong 0.18 3.36

14 Jilin 0.17 0.61

15 Shanxi 0.17 0.34

16 Zhejiang 0.16 3.20

17 Hebei 0.14 0.37

18 Henan 0.14 —

Average contribution of

weather service 0.22 73.56

Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Electric Power Sector

Weather phenomena Critical values Valid forecast period (h)

Lightning & Thunderstorm — 6~12

Rain Rainstorm

（50~99.9mm/d） 12~24

Cable icing — 12~24

Snow Heavy snow

（5.0~9.9mm/d） 12~24

Wind force 7~8 12~24

Highest temperature 36~37℃ 24~48

3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （ 6）

In 2011, for further work assessment project for weather service benefits in

wind power.

According to the assessment, the contribution of weather service in wind power

sector was 1.85%, with the economic returns estimated at 885 million yuan.

The contributions of weather service in distribution of wind-generated electricity,

planning of wind power programs, drought fan maintenance and construction of

wind farms were all higher than 1.85%. Weather service contributed least in the

wind power generation at 1.62%.

Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Wind Power Sector

Weather phenomena Critical values Valid forecast period (h)

Wind velocity 3m/s (Minimum)

25m/s (Maximum) 12~24

Lightning & Thunderstorm — 0~3

Fan blade icing 10mm 12~24

Lowest temperature －30℃ 12~24

Highest temperature 40℃ 12~24

4 benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation （ 1）

Weather service system for agriculture and meteorological disaster prevention

system in rural areas.

Mechanism： “under government’s guidance, linked up between departments and supported by

all the members of society”.

Example：No.11 severe typhoon named “Haikui” (“Sea Anemone”) struck land in Zhejiang Province

in 2012, leaving 7,001,000 people affected, 1,546,000 people of whom were moved away

from the afflicted areas. Not a single person died .

4 Benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation （ 2）

Benefit assessment on weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control.

Benefit assessment on weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control, 2012

Total Experts from Ministry of

Land and Resources

Experts from Local

Government Primary staff Public

5,111 596 572 695 3,248

88.4

89.2

90.9 90.8

87.3

Total Experts from Ministry of Land and Resources

Experts from Local

Government

Primary staff Public

Degree of Satisfaction in different groups

82.6883.55

91.3

Accuracy Timeliness Coverage Rate

Indexes for weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control

4 Benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation （ 3）

The significant role of weathermen in disaster prevention and mitigation

There are now nearly 500,000 weathermen working in rural areas in China. The network of weather early warning information has been expanded to more counties and villages .

64.4

42.6

13.4

2.8 2.3 0.5

Organize Public

Avoiding Calamity

Take Defensive Measures

Waiting for Government to Deal With

Others Donot Know How to Defend

Ignore

Measures taken by weathermen in disasters, 2011

55.0%30.0%

11.0%

1.0% 4.0%

Very Concerned About

More Concerned About

General

Little Concerned About

Do Not Care

Attention to meteorological disasters from weathermen

5 Conclusion

Benefit assessment on weather service is an interdisciplinary issue.

Therefore, more efforts shall be put into theoretical and methodological

studies, with new assessment modes introduced, assessment content

enriched and practicability of assessment enhanced, to improve benefit

assessment on weather service.

Through the assessment projects we have conducted for the benefit of

weather service, we see both visible economic returns and other invisible

benefits, such as social and humanitarian benefits and even positive influence

on people’s psyche.

Much of what we’ve done is still in an initial stage of qualitative assessment,

which cannot fully demonstrate all the benefits weather service can generate.

As weather service gets improving, it will bring more benefits for social and

economic development.

Thank you!