An airborne portable expendable probe An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor system for receiver/processor system for operational acquisition and transmission operational acquisition and transmission of ocean observations from WC-130J of ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights tropical cyclone flights 1 Science Applications International, Inc. 2 Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, California 3 Office of Naval Research, Arlington, VA 4 Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS 5 REL, Inc. and USAF (ret), Biloxi, MS 6 Naval Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS 64 64 th th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Savannah, GA Savannah, GA 1-4 March, 2010 1-4 March, 2010 eter G. Black 1,2 , Daniel Eleuterio 3 , Jeff Kerling 4 , Robert E. Lee 5 and Dong-Sha
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1 Science Applications International, Inc. 2 Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, California
An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor system for operational acquisition and transmission of ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights. Peter G. Black 1,2 , Daniel Eleuterio 3 , Jeff Kerling 4 , Robert E. Lee 5 and Dong-Shan Ko 6. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor system for operational acquisition and transmission of system for operational acquisition and transmission of
ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights
1Science Applications International, Inc.2Naval Research Laboratory
Monterey, California3Office of Naval Research, Arlington, VA
4Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS5REL, Inc. and USAF (ret), Biloxi, MS
Develop a MOBILEMOBILE TC and ocean observing system to define TC intensity while observing background ocean conditions and ocean-TC interaction
MORPHS into ITOP/TCS10 StrategyMORPHS into ITOP/TCS10 Strategy
TPARC/TCS08 Commonality with TPARC/TCS08 Commonality with ITOP/TCS10:ITOP/TCS10:
I. Variability in oceanic heat input to TC large:knowledge required for coupled models
II. Rapid Intensity Change (RI/RF) accounts for more than half of the large TC intensity forecast errors.
III. Strategic and economic consequences for un-forecasted RI/RF, which occur in only 15% of the TC life cycle, account for 85% of TC losses.
Why Investigate Oceanic Role inWhy Investigate Oceanic Role inTC Rapid Intensity Change and vice versa?TC Rapid Intensity Change and vice versa?
Ko, NRL Stennis
AXBT’s help to adjust model-predictededdy locations
D26
100
m
50 m
SATCON Intensity:Velden, CIMSSHawkins, NRL
TCS08Jangmi Sept, 2008Track,Intensity Change
Aircraft
JMA
9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2
920
900
940
960
980
1000
Pre
ssu
re (
mb
)
0
50
100
150
Win
d S
pee
d (
kt)
Rap
id
Inten
sification
RapidFilling
Aircraft Pmin
OH
C G
rad
ien
t
LandfallK
uro
sh
io
Rapid Structure Change
X
X Aircraft Vmax
X
X
27 Sept, 1134
27 Sept, 2132
28 Sept, 0006
OH
C G
rad
ien
t
Col
d,
Col
d,
Sh
allo
wS
hal
low
War
m, D
eep
Bands Decay: Bands Decay:
Dry Slot FormsDry Slot Forms
Eyewall shrinks,Eyewall shrinks,
asymmetric bandasymmetric band
structure formsstructure forms
Eyewall open west,Eyewall open west,
NW quad rainbandsNW quad rainbands
Disappear: DRY SlotDisappear: DRY Slot
27 Sept, 0445
STY Jangmi
Rapid Structure Change
Time
Concentric Eyewalls:Concentric Eyewalls:
Peak IntensityPeak Intensity
SSTASSTA
Jangmi COAMPS-TC Forecasts with TCDI InitializationJangmi COAMPS-TC Forecasts with TCDI Initialization
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast hour
SL
P(h
Pa)
)
JMA
JTWC
Coupled
Uncoupled
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast hour
10-m
Max
Win
d (
kts)
JMA
JTWC
Coupled
Uncoupled
Jangmi track is well captured by both the coupled and uncoupled 5 km simulations over the first 3 days, but the forecast tracks deviate significantly from the observed over the last 24 h.The rapid intensity change (both intensification and weakening) in the coupled run compares more favorably with the observations than the uncoupled run.
Co
ld e
dd
y b
nd
ry
Lan
dfa
ll
25 26 27 28 29 30
Jangmi OHC25-30 Sept 086-HR interval
JangmiJangmiSSTASSTA20082008
26 Sept26 Sept
JangmiJangmiSSTASSTA20082008
28 Sept28 Sept
JangmiJangmiOHCOHC
27 Aug27 Aug
TCS08 AXBT LocationsKo, NRL Stennis
AXBT vs NRL OceanModel Initial Conditions
TCS08 Ocean HeatContent Obs: •Concurrent with GPS dropsondes•Preview of ITOP2010
There is a strong relation between There is a strong relation between TC RapidTC Rapid Intensity Change,Intensity Change, warm/cold ocean eddy warm/cold ocean eddy
boundaries and differing TC-ocean interaction boundaries and differing TC-ocean interaction in those regions- likely a function of storm size, in those regions- likely a function of storm size, intensity, speed of motion and other factorsintensity, speed of motion and other factors
ITOP/TCS10 promises to advance our ITOP/TCS10 promises to advance our understanding of ocean forcing and TC response understanding of ocean forcing and TC response through a further advance in observational through a further advance in observational technology- combining airborne, moored, ship-technology- combining airborne, moored, ship-based and AUV platformsbased and AUV platforms
Operational CONCLUSIONSOperational CONCLUSIONS
As COUPLED TC prediction models are As COUPLED TC prediction models are implemented, improved initial TC ocean profile implemented, improved initial TC ocean profile data will become as important as initial data will become as important as initial atmospheric dropsonde data both in the atmospheric dropsonde data both in the environment ahead of the TC and within the TC.environment ahead of the TC and within the TC.
A prototype system for AXBT and other profiler A prototype system for AXBT and other profiler deployment and real-time processing is now deployment and real-time processing is now available for operational testing as resources available for operational testing as resources become available.become available.