1 Sara Parkin EE2006 Conference 24 th July, 2006 University of Liverpool Engineering and the pursuit of happiness.

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Sara Parkin

EE2006 Conference 24th July, 2006

University of Liverpool

Engineering and Engineering and the pursuit of the pursuit of happinesshappiness

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• What do we really, really want?

• Why is it so hard to get?

• Engineers and the ‘green’ industrial revolution

• Education, education, education

Sara Parkin Forum for the Future

Engineers and the Pursuit of Engineers and the Pursuit of HappinessHappiness

“an engineer is someone who contrives to bring something about”

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‘The crux of the matter is not only whether the human species will survive, but even more whether it can survive without falling into a state of worthless existence’

Meadows et al, 1971


Limits to GrowthLimits to Growth

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Income and HappinessIncome and Happiness

40 K

30 K

10 K

20 K

Richard Layard, 2005

5Sara Parkin Forum for the Future

Climate change: top manifestation of Climate change: top manifestation of ununsustainable development?sustainable development?

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBased on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)


Worst case scenariosWorst case scenarios

GreenlandIce melt

Loss ofCarbon sinks

Gulf streamcollapse?

MeltingOf

Permafrost

Glacial melt

Sea levelrise

Changesin extremes

Marginalclimates

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In a world that has never been so ‘rich’ poverty and inequality persist

• In 1990s East Asia halved those living on less that $1 a day – but overall 54 countries got poorer

• 1% of the world’s population earns more per year than the 57% poorest

HSBC rates inequality as its top business risk


Current development model in Current development model in questionquestion


UnUnsustainable development insustainable development in summarysummary

feedbacfeedbackk

persistent poverty, Injustice and inequality

People ‘take’ People ‘take’ 40+% total 40+% total annual plant annual plant

growthgrowth• economy• health• security

• easiest %• need to share• shrinking base• too much already

Forum for the FutureVitosek et al (1997)

burning fossil fuels

environmental degradation

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• Client and student demand (can you hear it?)

• 3060 courses, 35 institutions

• 8000 engineers register each year with EC(UK)

• Engineers are people too


Get the values into Get the values into value engineering value engineering

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“So the new synthesis we need is that economic growth, social justice and environmental care advance best when they all advance together”

Gordon Brown at the UN, April 2006


But … Gordon gets it!!But … Gordon gets it!!

And so does Dave !!And so does Dave !!“The idea that there's more to life than money is hardly new. Improving our society's sense of well-being is, I believe, the central political challenge of our times

David Cameron on GWB, July 2006

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I = P x C x T in 2050


It’s a practical challengeIt’s a practical challenge

Insert some numbers: I Impact on environment down by 50% P Number of People (up 50% to 9.5 bill)C Consumption up, say, 3% pa

Means thatT Technology or techniques of that consumption need to improve 8-10

fold (equality)


Climate change most urgentClimate change most urgent

Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14% mostly from soils & livestock

Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18% primarily deforestation

All GHG in CO2 equivalent

Energy – 25.6 Gt 61% Consuming fossil fuels

Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources

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• The industrial revolution and Lunar Society

• The ‘solar’ revolution: Engineers of the 21st Century

• China’s Politburo Standing Committee are all engineers

• Engineers IN Society


We’re in the midst of a green We’re in the midst of a green industrial revolution industrial revolution

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• Get everyone sustainability ‘literate’ – and fast

• Understand, apply and promote basic principles

• Modernise standards for materials and processes

• Get the values into value engineering

• Innovate and IntegrateSara Parkin Forum for the Future

Educating engineers: a case for Educating engineers: a case for emergency treatmentemergency treatment


What do employers want?What do employers want?

Educating Engineers for the 21st Century, RAEng, March 2006


“It isn’t just engineering, its’s engineering and its implications on society and how you manage complexity. And being able to think in a systematic way.”

“we are going to have to employ more and more creative types, rather than just the execution types”

What do employers want?What do employers want?

RAEng Educating Engineers for the 21st Century: the industry view, March 2006

Chair: Profession Julia King, Principle of Faculty of Engineering, Imperial College, London

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A sustainability literate person:

• Understands what sustainable development is about

• Has the competencies and the confidence to behave appropriately

• Is able to recognise (and reward) right behaviour in others


Sustainability LiteracySustainability Literacy


Back to basics: do we Back to basics: do we understand understand how wasteful we are?how wasteful we are?

10,000 kg

Raw Resourc

e

Manufacture

1000 kgFinished Product

(consumed)

6 months 100 kglong-termdurables

leftin home

EXTRACT CONVERT USE DISCARD

Biffa, 2000

10 x 10 x

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USE 1

USE 2

USE 3

Minimum energy & raw materials

Maximum energy recovery Minimum waste

& pollution

Materials and processes – Materials and processes – conception to decomposition conception to decomposition analysisanalysis

IN

OUT

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• Client and student demand (can you hear it?)

• 3060 courses, 35 institutions

• 8000 engineers register each year with EC(UK)

• Engineers are people too


Get the values into Get the values into value engineering value engineering

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• Consider science, risk and precaution at the same time

• Adaptive management – how to succeed despite barriers +

complexity

• Step back to basics to better leap forward

• We’re all engineers now?Sara Parkin Forum for the Future

Innovate and integrateInnovate and integrate

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CORNUCOPIAN‘anything goes’

PERMISSIVE


UNSCIENTIFIC APPRAISALOpaque, ad hoc, anecdotal, doctrinaire,

partisan, unaccountable, no learning

NARROW REGIME

• narrow framing of appraisal • single perspective filter• confidence in knowledge • proof burden on sceptics • alternatives excluded• claimed benefits assumed• emphasise rights of industry

BROAD REGIME

• broad framing of appraisal

• plural perspective filters

• humility about knowledge

• proof burden on advocate

• openness to alternatives

• justification of benefits• rights of wider society

SCIENTIFIC APPRAISALtransparent, systematic,

sceptical, peer-reviewed, independent,

accountable, learning

APOCALYPTIC‘stop everything’

RESTRICTIVE

NARROW RISK

APPROACHES

PRECAUTIONARY APPROACHES

Science Risk and SocietyScience Risk and Society

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• The purpose of engineer education in the 21st Century

• Leadership means being ahead of the curve

• Sustainable development is the only game in town

• Engineers of the 21st Century


Engineering Engineering and the pursuit of and the pursuit of happinesshappiness


E21C Change ChallengesE21C Change Challenges

•Choosing the sustainability option is cheaper and easier

• Teachers and trainers build sustainability ‘literacy’ into courses

• specifying for sustainability criteria in materials and processes is done along the supply chain

• employers embed sustainability thinking into organisational culture, and across different professions

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Thank you for listeningThank you for listening

www.forumforthefuture.org.ukwww.forumforthefuture.org.uk


Materials and process Life Cycle Materials and process Life Cycle AnalysisAnalysis

TBL TYPE OF CAPITAL STOCK FLOW OF BENEFITS

Environment NATURAL land, sea, air energy, food, water ecological systems climate, waste disposal

HUMAN health, knowledge energy, work, creativity, motivation, spiritual ease innovation, love, happiness

Society SOCIAL governance systems, security, shared goods (e.g. communities, families culture, education), inclusion

Economy MANUFACTURED tools, infrastructure, living/work/leisure places buildings access, material resources

FINANCIAL money, stocks, bonds means of valuing, owning, exchanging other four capitals

UUnnddeerrssttaannddiinngg ssuussttaaiinnaabbiilliittyy:: 55--ccaappiittaall mmooddeell


SS

1 Sara Parkin EE2006 Conference 24 th July, 2006 University of Liverpool Engineering and the pursuit of happiness.

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