1 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Effects-Based Operations as a Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis Problem Jouni Pousi, Kai Virtanen, and Raimo P. Hämäläinen Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
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1 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Effects-Based Operations as a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Problem Jouni Pousi, Kai.
3 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Effects-based operations (EBO) The term ”EBO” originated during the Gulf War in 1991 Historically military planning focused on actions EBO shifts the focus to effects in a system Military operations aimed for effects prior to EBO –Inconsistent approaches –Lack of analytical methods –Not called EBO Practical experiences with EBO led to extensive debate on aspects Multi-criteria approach not focused on in unclassified literature
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Effects-Based Operations as a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Problem
Jouni Pousi, Kai Virtanen, and Raimo P. Hämäläinen
Systems Analysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Effects-based operations (EBO) (e.g., Davis, P.K., “Effects-Based Operations: A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community,” RAND, 2001)– Concept for planning and executing military operations– Systems perspective
- e.g., country, electrical grid, transportation network– Effects: Consequences of actions in a system
- Effects: e.g., change opinion of the populace, isolate a country, disable the electrical grid
- Actions: e.g., launch a missile, jam communications, apply economic sanctions
Introduction
Transparent and tractable way to plan EBO
EBO planning process allowing the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
Utilization of multi-criteria influence diagrams in the process
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Effects-based operations (EBO)
The term ”EBO” originated during the Gulf War in 1991 Historically military planning focused on actions EBO shifts the focus to effects in a system Military operations aimed for effects prior to EBO
– Inconsistent approaches– Lack of analytical methods– Not called EBO
Practical experiences with EBO led to extensive debate on aspects
Multi-criteria approach not focused on in unclassified literature
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Aspects of EBO Cause effects in a
system– Through actions– Such that higher level
objectives fulfilled Systems in EBO
– Uncertain– Dynamic– High level of
interdependency Multiple effects caused
by even a single actionMCDA is a necessity
when planning EBO!
Effects(e.g., isolatea country)
System(e.g.,
transportationnetwork)
Higher-levelobjectives(e.g., stabilize
a region)
Actions(e.g., bomb railways,jam communications)
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process
EffectsActions System
Decision maker (DM)Bestaction
? ?? ?
Goal of the process: Support the decision maker (DM) to find the best action causing the desired effects in the system
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 1/9
Higher-level objectives
Effects
Undesired
InsignificantDesired
Unidentified
Step 1: Identify effects from higher-level objectives
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 1/9
Higher-level objectives
Step 1: Identify effects from higher-level objectives
Ensure cooperation ofcountry D on issue X
Change popular opinionof country D about
government of country D
Undesired
InsignificantDesired
Unidentified
Effects
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 2/9
Step 2: Define the system consisting of subsystems and elements
Subsystem
Element
EffectsSystem
Subsystem
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 2/9
Step 2: Define the system consisting of subsystems and elements
Subsystem
Element
EffectsSystem
Power plant
Power grid
Country D
Subsystem
Civilianpopulation
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 3/9
EffectsSystem
Subsystemrelated to
effect
Step 3: Identify subsystems related to each desired and undesired effect
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 3/9
Step 3: Identify subsystems related to each desired and undesired effect
EffectsSystem
Subsystemrelated to
effect
Civilianpopulation
Change popular opinionof country D about
government of country D
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 4/9
Step 4: Identify feasible actions having an impact on subsystems related to each effect
EffectsSystemActions
Feasibleactions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 4/9
EffectsSystemActions
Feasibleactions
Bomb electricalpower plants
Powerplant
Step 4: Identify feasible actions having an impact on subsystems related to each effect
Civilianpopulation
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 5/9
EffectsSystemActions
Othereffects
Step 5: Identify other effects caused by the feasible actions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 5/9
EffectsSystemActions
Othereffects
Undesired effect:InfrastructuredegradationStep 5: Identify other effects caused by the
feasible actions
Bomb electricalpower plants
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 6/9
Step 6: Choose indicators for all the effects
EffectsSystemActions
Indicator
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 6/9
Step 6: Choose indicators for all the effects
EffectsSystemActions
Indicator
PowerplantUndesired effect:
Infrastructuredegradation
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 7/9
Step 7: Construct criteria for effects from the indicators
EffectsSystemActions
CriteriaCriterion
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 7/9
Step 7: Construct criteria for effects from the indicators
EffectsSystemActions
CriteriaCriterion
Reconstruction costs
Undesired effect:Infrastructuredegradation
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 8/9
EffectsSystemActions
Criteria
Step 8: Find efficient actions based on the criteria
Feasibleactions
Efficientactions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Step 9/9
EffectsSystemActions
CriteriaStep 9: Select the best action based on DM’s preference information
DM’s preference
information
Bestaction
Multi-criteriaevaluation of
efficient actions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
IV. Best action selectedbased on DM’s preference information
Bestaction
Multi-criteriaevaluation of
efficient actions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process:Interpretation as a multi-criteria decision problem
Structure the decision problem
Assess impact of alternatives
Determine DM’s preferences
Evaluate and compare decision alternatives
Decision analysisEBO planning
Define system and effects
Identify feasible actions and other effects
Choose indicators, construct criteria
Find efficient actions and the best action
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process:Interpretation as a multi-criteria decision problem
Structure the decision problem
Assess impact of alternatives
Determine DM’s preferences
Evaluate and compare decision alternatives
Decision analysisEBO planning
Define system and effects
Identify feasible actions and other effects
Choose indicators, construct criteria
Find efficient actions and the best action
MCDA methodscan be appliedfor supportingEBO planning!
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Requirements for methods applied in EBO planning process
System modeling– Interdependencies– Uncertainty – Dynamics
Multi-criteria evaluation of a discrete set of actions– MCDA– Sensitivity analysis
Multi-criteria influence diagrams (MCIDs) - a potential method!
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBOLATOR Decision support tool for EBO planning
– GeNIe for MCID– Matlab-based GUI
Use of GeNIe– Construction of MCID graphically– Definition of MCID parameters– Calculation of criteria probability
distributions GUI
– Visualization of actions– Evaluation of actions
• Decision rule for criteria (e.g., expected value)
• Direct weighting• Constraints
– Sensitivity analysis with respect to • Weights• Constraints• MCID parameters
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Example missionDefensive mission:Determining aircraft positioning and air combat tactics against air-to-ground attackHigher level objective: Defend the sovereignity of the country
Attack towards civil and military infrastructure– Power plants, electrical substations, water supply, radar sites, anti-air sites
Attacker assumed to conduct two air-to-ground operations
Uncertainties on mission planning– Enemy actions– Weather– System behaviour
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Results of EBO planning process
Effects- Maintain functioning of
civil infrastructure- Maintain functioning of
air defense
Actions- Aircraft positions- Air combat tactics
(729 actions)
SystemInfrastructure
(46 MCID nodes,4404 parameters)
Criteria- Air combat losses
- Functioning of air surveillance- Functioning of power grid
- etc.(10 criteria)
Multi-criteriaevaluation of
actions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
EBO planning process: Multi-criteria evaluation of actions
The best action according to the authors’ preferences– Protect power plants– Less aggressive air
combat tactics during the second attack operation
Sensitivity analyses for best action– Robust with regards
the weigths and constraints of the criteria
– Can be executed in all weather conditions
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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Conclusions Multi-criteria perspective essential in EBO planning
– Previous elaborations could be improved by inclusion of MCDA New EBO planning process utilizing multi-criteria decision
analysis EBOLATOR using influence diagram methodology
– Answers challenges of system modeling– Enables multi-criteria evaluation
- Sensitivity analyses– Large system => Issues on model size and determination of
parameters Future research
– Alternative MCDA methods– Enemy behaviour – game theory– Improved dynamics– Other application areas – medical, marketing