1 Public Perceptions of Terrorism and Government Preparedness National and Local Trends and Findings November 16, 2005 Presented by Dan Nataf, Ph.D Director,

1

Public Perceptions of Terrorism and Government Preparedness

National and Local Trends and FindingsNovember 16, 2005

Presented by

Dan Nataf, Ph.DDirector, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College101 College Parkway

Arnold, MD 21012(410) 777-2733

(410) 777-4733 fax

[email protected]/csli

2

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: National Trends and Findings

• National Trends– Bush and approval handling terrorism and

homeland security

– Bush and Iraq

– Bush and overall job approval

– Perceptions about why no follow-up attack

– Confidence in government– Sources: Polls cited in www.pollingreport.com

3

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: National Bush Handling of Terrorism and Homeland Security

Approval of Bush's job on handling terrorism and homeland security

Approve

65

45

51

59

46

38Disapprove, 41

48 49

35

44

6Unsure

7 85

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

2/19-20/04

3/25-26/04

4/8-9/04

3/17-18/05

8/2-4/05

9/8-9/05

9/29-30/05

11/10-11/05

4

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence - National Bush Handling of Terrorism ONLY

Bush - Approval handling terrorism (only)

ApproveSaddam, 70%

83

92

67

5056

48

Iraq War 79%

35

10

25

Disapprove 43 4351

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10/1

/01

12/1

/01

1/2/

02

3/2/

02

4/2/

02

5/2/

02

7/2/

02

9/2/

02

10/2

/05

12/2

/02

1/3/

03

2/3/

03

4/3/

03

9/4-

7/03

9/10

-13/

03

10/9

-13/

03

10/2

6-29

/03

12/1

8-21

/03

1/15

-18/

04

2/10

-11/

04

3/4-

7/04

4/15

-18/

04

5/20

-23/

04

6/17

-20/

04

7/22

-25/

04

12/4

/04

1/5/

05

3/5/

05

4/5/

05

6/2-

5/05

8/25

-28/

05

9/8-

11/0

5

10/3

0 -

11/2

/05

5

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence - National

Bush - % approving handling of war in Iraq

Bush - Approve handling of Iraq

65

53 54

46 4744

48

4245

50

45 44

35

41

3436

33

29

3936

40

47 4649

45

51 50

43

4750 51

57

61 6062

5 68

6 6 7 7 7 7 75

8 7 86 5

85 5 4 5 5

Approve, 58%

30

44

5351

6965

54

Disapprove, 39%

42

26

Unsure, 7%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5/1-2/03

5/29-30/03

7/10-11/03

7/24-25/03

8/21-22/03

9/11-12/03

9/18-19/03

9/25-26/03

10/9-10/03

10/23-24/03

11/6-7/03

12/11-12/03

12/18-19/03

1/8-9/04

2/19-20/04

3/25-26/04

4/8-9/04

5/13-14/04

3/17-18/05

8/2-4/05

9/8-9/05

9/29-30/05

11/10-11/05

6

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: National

Bush overall job approval

7

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence : National Why no new attacks?

Domestic security measures more important than military action in Iraq

"Which one of the following do you think is the most likely reason there have been no attacks by al Qaeda on the United States since the September 11 attacks? Homeland security measures prevented them. No attacks were planned. The military action in Iraq prevented them." 11/8-9/05 FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll

Security measures 24%

No attacks planned 19%

Military action in Iraq 16%

Combination 26%

Other/unsure 16%

8

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: National Confidence that US govt. can protect from terrorism

Confidence US Govt can protect from terrorist attack

1616

23

35

Not much/none

A great deal

Fair amount

47

53 54

60

2629

37

11

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

9/20-23/01

10/8/01

10/25-28/01

11/13-14/01

12/7-10/01

1/5-6/02

6/2/057/2/05

9/2/058/29-31/05

9/6-7/05

10/3-5/05

9

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local Issues to be examined

•Bush approval

•Bush approval by “know someone in military in Iraq/Afghanistan

•Bush ‘best’ and ‘worst’ policies – spotlight on Iraq

•How important is ‘terrorism’ among other issues

•Likelihood of terrorist attack in Anne Arundel County over next year

•Perceived preparedness level of local authorities

•Compare with confidence local authorities can deal with economic and environmental challenges

•How has 9-11 changed people’s lives (if at all)

•Citizens own emergency preparedness

10

Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

Approve 45% Disapprove 48% Unsure 7%Gallup (11-15-05) Approve 37% Disapprove 60% Unsure 3%

Those with ‘friend or family member currently serving in the military in Iraq or Afghanistan’ (39% of sample): Approve 48% Disapprove 45% Unsure 6% Without: Approve 42% Disapprove 51% Unsure 6%

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local Bush Job Approval

11

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local Best Policies by Party Registration

29% 29%

40%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Best Policy by Party

DemocratRepublicanIndependent

12

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local Worst Policies by Party Registration

80

43

70

0

5

10

15

20

25

Worst Policy by Party

DemocratRepublicanIndependent

13

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local Most Important Issues – Concern for Terrorism is event driven

Most Important Issue - Trends

Crime

Terrorism

Growth

Education

Taxes

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

14

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local Likelihood of terrorist attack over next year

Very likely, 25%

Somewhat likely , 43%

Not very likely , 64%

9%

30%

59%

3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Likelihood of Terrorist Attack in County

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Not very likely

Unsure

15

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike or

Natural Disaster (vs. Economy/Environment

Preparedness/

Confidence

Terror Disaster Econ. Environ.

Very 11 11 8 7

Somewhat 42 49 45 38

Not very 44 36 41 50

No answer 3 4 7 6

16

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike - Trend

30

22 24 27

11Very prepared

42

Somewhat prepared 44

Not very prepared , 18%

37

Unsure 30

10

20

30

40

50

60

Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Spring2003 

Fall 2003  Spring2004

Fall 2004 Fall 2005

17

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local County’s Direction: Right or Wrong?

Low confidence but still ‘right’ direction

County - Right or Wrong Direction

5751

57

Right, 66%

23

15

Wrong

2734

20 13 16Unsure

25

42Econ - Poor+Fair

28

05

10152025303540455055606570

18

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local 9-11: Long term effects

No change since 2001

Life Back to Normal after 9-11 or changes stayed a major part of life?

Back Normal,

63%

Back Normal,

64%

Back Normal,

65%

Stay in Life, 32%

Stay in Life, 31%

Stay in Life, 29%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

100%

19

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local 9-11: What changes are important?

Response (Spring 2005) Cases Percent

Traveling less, especially by air 19 22

More suspicious and aware of surroundings and people

15 17

Heightened security 14 16

Relatives in the military 10 12

Awareness of issues 9 10

Discrimination 2 2

Emergency Plan 2 2

Other 15 17

Total 86 98

20

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local Have you prepared for an emergency such as a terrorist attack or

natural disaster?

Spring 2003

Fall 2003

Spring 2004

Developed a family plan of action - YES 43 58 49

NO 51 42 49

Unsure/no answer 6 1 2

Obtained/review County “Emergency Preparedness” guide - YES

20 34 n.a.

Watch County Fire Department program on how to prepare for emergencies on cable TV? - YES

n.a 25 n.a.

Was info helpful (very helpful) n.a. 53 n.a.