1 Public Opinion and Issues in Anne Arundel County: Leadership Anne Arundel Presentation January 20, 2011 Dan Nataf, PhD Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College 101 College Parkway Arnold, MD 21012 (410) 777-2733 (410) 777-4733 fax
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1 Public Opinion and Issues in Anne Arundel County: Leadership Anne Arundel Presentation January 20, 2011 Dan Nataf, PhD Director, Center for the Study.
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1
Public Opinion and Issues in Anne Arundel County: Leadership Anne Arundel Presentation
January 20, 2011
Dan Nataf, PhDDirector, Center for the Study of Local IssuesAnne Arundel Community College101 College ParkwayArnold, MD 21012(410) 777-2733(410) 777-4733 fax [email protected]
• Visit CSLI’s web site for previous surveys (www2.aacc.edu/csli)
4
LAA Presentation – Feb. 28, 2009
Main Issues for Today
– County - Right/Wrong direction– Most important problems– Economic conditions– Perceptions of the future– Tax and spending preferences– Housing– Crime– Immigration
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011
Main Issues for Today (or as far as we get!)
5754
58 5562
6660 61 62
58 5853
57 5551 52 51 50 52
4752 52 49
2327 25 24 23
15
2621
2531
2429 27 26 29 27
33 32 3128 27 28 28
20 19 1720
1519
1418
13 1219 18 16 18 20 21
16 17 17
2521 20 23
Right 51
Wrong 34
Unsure 15
05
10152025303540455055606570
Sp
'99
Fa
'99
Sp
'00
Fa
'00
Sp
'01
Fa
'01
Sp
'02
Fa
'02
Sp
'03
Fa
'03
Sp
'04
Fa
'04
Sp
'05
Fa
'05
Sp
'06
Fa
'06
Sp
'07
Fa
'07
Sp
'08
Fa
'08
Sp
'09
Fa
'09
Sp
'10
Fa
'10
Right Wrong Unsure
Remarkable stability in right/wrong direction…
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011
County – Right/Wrong Direction
6
Fall '04 Spring '05
Fall '05 Spring '06
Fall '06 Spring '07
Fall '07 Spring '08
Fall '08 Spring '09
Fall '09 Spring '10
Fall '10 Mean 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
8 7 7
15
7
12
8
23
38
48
3336 36
20
1013
10 10 9
1517 16
1210
12 1113 12
Economy still top problem, but mostly unchanged since March 2009
Economy /Housing Taxes – too high Growth /developmentEducation / Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011
County – Most Important Problem
Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” economy also stable since March 2009
S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10Anne Arundel County Maryland USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011
County – Economic Conditions vs. State and USA
8
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Economic Concerns: Perceptions of the Local and National Economies 2002-2010
National
County
“Thinking about our county's economy, how would you rate economic conditions in Anne Arundel County today -- excellent, good, only fair, or poor?” (Total percentage saying excellent and good)
S'02
F '02 S '03
F '03 S '04
F '04 S '05
F '05 S '06
F '06 S '07
F '07 S '08
F '08 S '09
F '09 S '10
F '100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
38
26 2722
34 3431
28
3842
3227
17
5 510 11 11
7476
56 5662
74 7471
7471 71 69
55
4946 48
44 45CSLI - AA County
Gallup - USA
AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’
Unabl
e to
find
affor
dabl
e ho
usin
g
Wag
es o
r sal
arie
s are
not
risin
g as
fast
as t
he co
st o
f liv
ing
Hard
to a
fford
the
cost
of t
rans
porta
tion
Hard
to a
fford
the
cost
of u
tiliti
es suc
h as
ele
ctric
ity o
r gas
Taxe
s are
too
high
in re
latio
n to
gov
ernm
ent s
ervi
ces p
rovi
ded
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
21
56
40
61
11
59
32
50
58
12
55
21
5359
13
55
17
42
59
15
56
21
44
63
10
56
24
43
60
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10
Some costs have gone down
The economy: what else applies?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
11
6
35
15
71
4
30
24
75
6
51
29
24
70
8
46
33
19
56
7
47
32
21
60
7
44
34
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10
Unemployment rose sharply from March ‘08 to March ‘09 and hasn’t changed much since
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Economic Concerns by Various Demographic Factors
Wag
es o
r sal
arie
s vs.
infla
tion
Unem
ploy
men
t
Sign
ifica
nt lo
sses
in a
ccou
nts
House
loss
No aff
orda
ble
hous
ing
Cost o
f tra
nspo
rtatio
n
Cost o
f util
ities
…
Delay
in m
akin
g a
maj
or p
urch
ase
Health
car
e in
sura
nce
is un
avai
labl
e…
Taxe
s are
too
high
rela
tive…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
BlackWhiteMenWomenUnder $75Over $75
Income differences influence wages, unemployment, housing, affording utilities, health care and taxes
When will the economy improve?
Economic Condition This year
Next year
Future year
Median year
N.A.
A stabilization of housing values 8 35 51 2012 7A return to steady growth of the economy 5 32 59 2012 5A major reduction in the unemployment rate
4 31 61 2012 4
A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for state and local government budgets
3 16 68 2014 13
A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for the federal government’s budget
3 10 73 2015 14
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Economic Concerns: When will the economy improve? (Fall 2009)
Proposal Spring 2003 Fall 2003 Spring 2009
Cut programs 40 34 61
Increase taxes 36 34 17
Other (combination, other suggestion)
-- 18 14
Don’t know 24 14 8
Total 100 100 100
13
LAA Presentation: Jan. 20, 2011 Funding Government – cut programs or cut spending?
(Spring 2003, Fall 2003, Spring 2009)
The county faces up to a $90 million deficit for the 2011 fiscal year. Which of the following do you think would be the best in dealing with this deficit: Cutting government services, raising taxes, or some of both? Spring 2010
Cutting services 27%Raising taxes 8%Some of both 55%
14
Support for various budget measures Support
Oppose
UnsureNA
Increasing impact fees on new construction in AA County F08
63 31 6
Increase income taxes for those over $200k F07 61 36 3
Increase corporate income taxes F07 60 37 3
Increasing the tax on alcoholic products F09 54 39 8
Furloughing county employees to help balance the county’s budget S09
43 44 12
Adding a $30 fee to property taxes to pay for stream and waterway restoration F09
39 56 5
Increase in gasoline tax F07 33 61 6
Cutting millions in state aid to localities F09 32 41 27
General increase in income taxes F03 26 72 3
Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments F09
24 58 19
Maintaining current levels of funding for public schools F09
78 17 5
Maintaining the tuition freeze for the Univ. of Maryland F09
Service Reduced Kept the same Increased Don’t know
Fire department 2 50 46 2
Police department 5 41 53 1
Public Schools 6 35 58 2
The community college 6 49 41 4
Seniors’ services 7 52 39 3
Libraries 8 64 26 2
Roads 10 51 39 1
Health Department 13 46 34 6
Social Services 16 45 35 4
Parks and Recreation 17 59 22 3
Environmental Oversight 18 47 31 4
Planning and Zoning 29 49 13 9
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As county government prepares for the upcoming 2011 fiscal budget, it will consider how to cut spending. As I mention an area of spending, tell me whether spending should be reduced, kept the same or increased as government seeks to balance its budget. (S09)
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Better About the
same
Worse Unsure(vol.)/NA
Economic conditions 47 20 26 8
Growth and development 35 29 31 6
Access to health care 32 23 34 10
Public schools 29 29 37 5
Health care quality 29 32 32 7
Water quality of the Bay and tributaries
29 23 44 5
Air quality 24 32 40 4
Availability of fresh water 17 43 32 7
Crime 11 30 54 6
Local taxes 8 21 66 5
Thinking about this County’s future, please tell me whether you think the following things will be better, about the same or worse in 2020. (F09)
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Future: Better, Same or Worse?
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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011
Housing - What is “Affordable Housing?” (asked Fall 2002)
Attribute cited %
Purchase priceMedian: $150-175,000
39%
A type that is lacking in AA County 20%
Housing type – apartments, townhouses, section 8 19%
User type – low income, poor 9%
Other 12%
Total 100%
Is the lack of affordable housing in Anne Arundel County a problem?
Yes 54% No 34% Don’t know 12%
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Crime: Safety and Security in County and Neighborhood (1997-
2008)
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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Crime: Been a Victim of Crime over Last Year? (1997-
2008)
19
LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Crime: “Been a Victim of Crime over Last Year” (2008) by Age
Do you think that you personally have benefited from the services of illegal immigrants for example in landscaping, construction, restaurants or janitorial services?