1 Permanent Committee on Cadastre in the European Union – PCC Gianni Guerrieri Director Real Estate Market Observatory and Appraisal Services Italian Experience of Real Estate Market Observatory Rome November 20, 2014
Dec 22, 2015
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Permanent Committee on Cadastre in the European Union – PCC
Gianni GuerrieriDirector Real Estate Market Observatory and Appraisal Services
Italian Experience of Real Estate Market Observatory
Rome November 20, 2014
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The information can be classified in two groups:
- MacroeconomicsFor controlling general macroeconomic conditions
- MicroeconomicsFor appraisal of real estate assets
INFORMATION ON REAL ESTATE MARKET
Rome November 20, 2014
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INFORMATION MACROECONOMICS
Lack of macroeconomic indicators for the real estate market
Indispensable information set for controlling general macroeconomic conditions
- EUROSTAT (housing price index )
HOUSING PRICES ALONE ARE INSUFFICIENT INDICATORS
OTHER STATISTICS AND INDICATORS ARE NECESSARY
Rome November 20, 2014
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INFORMATION MACROECONOMICS number of housing units bought and sold (new and
existing); amounts bought and sold (expressed in square meters); existing housing stock; relationship of the number of houses bought and sold to
existing stock; the number of purchasers and their main characteristics
(age, gender, income and available housing stock); type of financing, distinguishing amounts deriving from self-
financing and those from debt, detailing the loans in terms of the type of collateral provided (purchased housing, other property, other collateral) and qualifying other forms of financing;
a similar set of indicators for the non-residential sector, particularly for the most common uses (shops, offices, industrial warehouses).
Rome November 20, 2014
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INFORMATION MICROECONOMICS
Appraisal of real estate assets - at the base of a pyramid which allows credit to be provided or allows the values of assets in a real estate fund to be brought up to date
Adequate information is necessary for appraising real estate with any given procedure.
lack of information
lack of transparency
uncertain appraisals
Increased risk (credit, real estate funds etc)
Rome November 20, 2014
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INFORMATION MICROECONOMICS
Needed information Availability of data regarding real estate transactions in
a given geographical area Availability of transaction prices
Availability of rental costs
Availability of the technical characteristics of the property (area, building type, state of repair etc)
Availability of marginal prices of the different characteristics
Availability of legal information (planning constraints, liens etc)
Rome November 20, 2014
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ITALIAN EXPERIENCE: REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
Real Estate Observatory of Agenzia delle Entrate
Mission : contribute to the transparency of the real estate
market; provide support for the Agency’s assessment
activities; improve cadastre and real property databases for
statistical - informational purposes
Rome November 20, 2014
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ITALIAN EXPERIENCE: REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
production of statistics regarding the real estate market starting with the cadastre and real property and financial administration databases in general (started in 2001);
management of the real estate price database
(launched on January 1, 2004) which required a gestation period of approximately three years for its design and testing.
Rome November 20, 2014
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ITALIAN EXPERIENCE: REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
Residential real estate report:
geographical and sectorial analysis
regarding number of residential units
sold and distribution of housing stock,
price indices, mortgages (annual)
Report on non-residential property: for
the most important segments (shops,
offices, warehouses (annual)
Observatory Database
Handbook
Local reports: twice yearly analyses of 19
cities and their provinces
Rome November 20, 2014
Quarterly Notes: quarterly update of the number
of property sales, mortgages and real estate
prices (quarterly);
Banca d’Italia, Agenzia
del Territorio,
Tecnoborsa Survey
(quarterly)
Cadastral Statistics: annual report on the
real estate units surveyed by the cadastre
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ITALIAN EXPERIENCE: REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
Rome November 20, 2014
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ITALIAN EXPERIENCE: REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
The key steps in reaching these results are:
division of the cities into areas that are as homogeneous as possible in terms of the housing (or prevalent) market;
conducting the survey of economic data for individual real estate units;
processing of this data; validation and publication.
Rome November 20, 2014
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ITALIAN EXPERIENCE: REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
Rome November 20, 2014
Market Price:
•Transactions: Public Register
•Direct Information
Estimated Market Price:
•Agency Estimates
Offer Price:
•Real estate agencies
•Real Estate Publications
Information providers: percentage contribution
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ITALIAN EXPERIENCE: REAL ESTATE MARKET OBSERVATORY
Rome November 20, 2014
Market Price:
•Transactions
•Direct Information
Estimated Market Price:
•Agency Estimates
Offer Price:
•Real estate agencies
•Real Estate Publications
Number of observations: - 2013 year
Total = 80.951
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In the future….
a) reinforce the availability and accessibility of economic information of real estate market observatory
b) draw up a new Report on number of rents and on price of rents
c) Draw up a new Report on mortgages for purchasers of real property or for those to raise funds for any purpose
d) Draw up a new Report on agricultural farmland bought and sold
Rome November 20, 2014
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IN CONCLUSION…
• Verify the level of information that the management bodies of administrative real estate data - such as the Cadastre or the Real Estate Registries – are able to generate for the transparency of the real estate market. The European statistical system could ensure the collection and availability of this information.
• Discuss the necessary minimal conditions for the availability of information that can render the principles of appraisal practice operationally concrete and for improved data rents and values of the cadastre.
Rome November 20, 2014