1 NORTHWEST ENERGY EFFICIENCY ALLIANCE DHP Costs & NEBs Ecotope, Inc. August 20, 2013.

1 NORTHWEST ENERGY EFFICIENCY ALLIANCE

DHP Costs & NEBs

Ecotope, Inc.August 20, 2013

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Agenda

Overview

DHP Cost

AC Credit

Supplemental Fuel Benefit

Summary

Q&A

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Overview

May RTF, presented DHP UES key issues July RTF, presented SEEM calibration and

preliminary savings estimates August RTF, presenting cost/NEB analysis based

on directives from May RTF Quantify/monetize DHP cost, AC credit, supplemental fuel

benefit Do not quantify/monetize comfort or other takeback effects Seeking general acceptance of cost/NEB inputs for UES

workbook September RTF, present UES workbook based on

prior RTF feedback on calibration, savings inputs, and cost/NEB inputs

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Cost/NEB Assumptions

Costs and NEBs are calculated by climate zone Calculations do not include:

Operation & maintenance costs Air pollution or emission impacts Any change in supplemental fuel over measure life

time

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DHP Cost

Data source = NEEA DHP Program cost tracking (All_Approved_Install_Data-03_04_13.csv)

Cost average based on “Total Cost,” minus tax Weighted average of three climate zones

Total program dataset, n=18,091 Screened in sequence:

Pre 3/31/12 sites, BPA changed reporting requirements (n=15,425) Not multifamily (n=14,867) 1 indoor head, 1 compressor (n=9,624) >3/4t,<2t compressor capacity (n=9,055) ≥$1,200, ≤$10,000 (n=9,046)

Total screened dataset, n=9,046

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DHP Cost Distribution

Median = $3,852 Mean = $3,874 Wtd mean = $3,859

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Average DHP Cost by Climate Zone

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Puget Cluster Higher, No Big Impact on Average Cost

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AC Credit

AC equipment estimate = $447 Source: Amazon, Target, Home Depot, Sears

Various capacities and makes, 10,000 up to 20,000 Btu/hr capacity (26 units)

AC equipment credit by climate zone(credit for homes that do not already have AC):

*Source: RBSA

HZ1 HZ2 HZ3

AC Baseline Saturation* 18% 23% 8%

Forecast of Future Incremental Cooling Saturation

82% 77% 92%

Average AC Equipment Credit $367 $344 $411

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Annual Supplemental Fuel Benefit Options

Option 1: Benefit based on fuel cost = $0.082/kWh Wood benefit = $0.068/kWh assuming $200/cord; 20 MMBtu/cord; 50%

delivery efficiency Propane benefit = $0.146/kWh assuming $2.84/gal (EIA); 92,000 Btu/gal;

72% delivery efficiency for high efficiency, freestanding stove or fireplace insert

Wood/propane ratio taken from RBSA, 17% of supplemental fuels is propane and 83% is wood (calcs. in table are weighted averages of both fuel types)

Option 2: Based on retail kWh rate = $0.089/kWh Avg. of WA, OR, & ID (April 2013) (

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_a)

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Annual Supplemental Fuel Benefit Options, Cont.

*HZ supplemental fuel saturations derived from RBSA**HZ supplemental fuel use derived from DHP billing analysis. Supplemental savings equals delta between total pre-space heat average with and with supplemental fuel.

HZ1 HZ2 HZ3

Supplemental Fuel Saturations* 30% 23% 90%

Heating Energy Impact for Average Home with Supplemental Fuels**

1,489 kWh/yr 858 kWh/yr 1,560 kWh/yr

Option 1: Benefit @ $0.082/kWh (Fuel Cost)

$122 $70 $128

Option 2: Benefit @ $0.089/kWh (Retail kWh Cost)

$132 $77 $139

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Summary of Costs & NEBs

Split capital cost by climate zone or use regional average?

Use electricity cost equivalent to estimate supplemental heat benefit?

HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 Average

DHP Cost $3,915 $3,699 $3,472 $3,859

AC Credit $367 $344 $411 $365

Capital Cost $3,548 $3,355 $3,061 $3,494 Supplemental Fuel Benefit:

Option 1: Fuel Cost (@ $0.082/kWh)

$122 $70 $128 $115

Option 2: Retail kWh Cost (@ $0.089/kWh)

$132 $77 $139 $124

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Questions & Answers