1 MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY AIUS / AITPM Seminar AIUS / AITPM Seminar Garry Glazebrook Garry Glazebrook 12 Nov 2009 12 Nov 2009 University of Technology, Sydney University of Technology, Sydney [email protected]
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MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLYMOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY
AIUS / AITPM SeminarAIUS / AITPM Seminar
Garry GlazebrookGarry Glazebrook12 Nov 200912 Nov 2009
University of Technology, SydneyUniversity of Technology, [email protected]
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The ChallengeThe Challenge
Peak OilPeak Oil is a looming threat is a looming threat
Climate ChangeClimate Change is only slightly less is only slightly less urgent, and potentially more seriousurgent, and potentially more serious
Health also important (obesity, Health also important (obesity, pollution, social connectivity etc)pollution, social connectivity etc)
TransportTransport needs to be more needs to be more sustainable and our cities more sustainable and our cities more resilientresilient
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WEO 2008 WEO 2008 and Uppsala and Uppsala Oil Outlook Oil Outlook
2008 2008
Source: Alaklett, 2009Source: Alaklett, 2009
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Coal production forecastCoal production forecast
2006
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How long have we got? - OilHow long have we got? - Oil Global Oil Production will decline. Australia’s share Global Oil Production will decline. Australia’s share
may also decline with competition from rising may also decline with competition from rising demand in China, India etcdemand in China, India etc
We should plan for We should plan for at least 50% reduction in oilat least 50% reduction in oil availability for transport over the next 30 yearsavailability for transport over the next 30 years
Cars will also face increased competition for oil Cars will also face increased competition for oil products from trucks, ships, airlines, plastics products from trucks, ships, airlines, plastics industry, fertiliser industry etc. industry, fertiliser industry etc.
There is a possibility that urban car-based travel There is a possibility that urban car-based travel will be seen as will be seen as expendableexpendable if supplies really get if supplies really get short….short….
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Substitutes?Substitutes? GasGas can be used as a transport can be used as a transport
fuel (LPG) but also be subject to fuel (LPG) but also be subject to rising competition, peaking of rising competition, peaking of supply and rising prices. supply and rising prices.
CoalCoal to liquids – problems with to liquids – problems with logistics, cost and COlogistics, cost and CO22, and with , and with future supplyfuture supply
Ethanol and other biofuelsEthanol and other biofuels also have limits on scale of also have limits on scale of production and ramp up speedproduction and ramp up speed
In any event, need to reduce In any event, need to reduce CO2 emissions from transport CO2 emissions from transport along with other sectors. along with other sectors. Transport can’t expect to Transport can’t expect to escape scot free. escape scot free.
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What are the options for a city like What are the options for a city like Sydney?Sydney?
Reduce overall travelReduce overall travel
Shift modes to walk/cycle/public Shift modes to walk/cycle/public transporttransport
Increased energy efficiency within Increased energy efficiency within modesmodes
Electric power with green electricityElectric power with green electricityEnergy / Oil / Energy / Oil / GreenhouseGreenhouse
Amount of Amount of TravelTravel
Energy / Oil / Energy / Oil / Greenhouse Greenhouse
Has been happening, and Sydney has been getting denser, Has been happening, and Sydney has been getting denser, although still low density on a world scalealthough still low density on a world scale
This has probably been a factor in halting the rise in VKT/capita, This has probably been a factor in halting the rise in VKT/capita, which has been stable for the last decadewhich has been stable for the last decade
Continuing consolidation and TOD will help reduce travel demand Continuing consolidation and TOD will help reduce travel demand per capita, but changes are relatively small.per capita, but changes are relatively small.
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60
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Bri
sban
e
Can
ber
ra
Per
th
Ho
ust
on
Ph
oen
ix
Ad
elai
de
Det
roit
Bo
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Sac
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San
Die
go
Po
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Mel
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Den
ver
Was
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Syd
ney
San
Fra
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Ch
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Win
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New
Yo
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Van
cou
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Cal
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Co
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en
Ott
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Mo
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Ham
bu
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To
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Lo
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Par
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Am
ster
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Zu
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Fra
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Mu
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Sto
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Vie
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Bru
ssel
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Sin
gap
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To
kyo
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Ko
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Cities with extensive Underground Railway Systems (Metros)
Shifting “Global Shifting “Global Sydney” jobs out of Sydney” jobs out of the CBD will increase the CBD will increase rather than decrease rather than decrease energy, oil and energy, oil and greenhouse greenhouse emissions emissions
Less specialised jobs can and should be decentralisedLess specialised jobs can and should be decentralised
But important to have a limited number of major centres But important to have a limited number of major centres (CBD, Parramatta, Macquarie) rather than dozens of (CBD, Parramatta, Macquarie) rather than dozens of small centres which will not be able to justify their own small centres which will not be able to justify their own high quality public transport networks.high quality public transport networks.
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FreightFreight
Freight task continues to growFreight task continues to grow Rail still losing out to trucksRail still losing out to trucks Need to be serious about mode shift Need to be serious about mode shift
for interstate freight and freight into for interstate freight and freight into the portthe port
Needs key investments, new models Needs key investments, new models backed by pricing signalsbacked by pricing signals
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Personal MobilityPersonal Mobility For For shortshort trips, trips,
need to shift to need to shift to bikes, scooters bikes, scooters and other and other personal mobility personal mobility devices..devices..
These can also These can also efficiently efficiently accessaccess public transport public transport for longer trips..for longer trips..
But greenway But greenway networks and networks and secure lock up secure lock up and shower and shower facilities facilities needed…needed…
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Sustainable Mass TransitSustainable Mass Transit
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Sydney’s public transport (especially trains) Sydney’s public transport (especially trains) are very significant…are very significant…
(Cityrail accounts for 10% of weekday travel, 2/3 of public transport passenger-kms in Sydney (Cityrail accounts for 10% of weekday travel, 2/3 of public transport passenger-kms in Sydney and 1/3 of all public transport passenger-kms in Australia)and 1/3 of all public transport passenger-kms in Australia)
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2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
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Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Total
Pa
ss-K
ms
(Bill
ion)
Ferry
Bus
Light Rail
Heavy Rail
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10% of our travel could be 100% 10% of our travel could be 100% greenpower tomorrowgreenpower tomorrow
All trains and trams All trains and trams could be switched to could be switched to greenpower within 2 greenpower within 2 yearsyears
Cost = $30m paCost = $30m pa
Compare with $5b for Compare with $5b for CBD metroCBD metro
Costs will decline over Costs will decline over time as black-power time as black-power gets more expensivegets more expensive
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Shifting modes – land useShifting modes – land use
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But Sydney is falling behind because of But Sydney is falling behind because of lack of appropriate investmentlack of appropriate investment
Percentage Increase in Public Transport Patronage by City since 1999
Sydney’s rail and bus Sydney’s rail and bus systems have capacity systems have capacity problemsproblems
There are things we can There are things we can do in the short term do in the short term (next five years)….(next five years)….
Longer term, we need a Longer term, we need a comprehensive plan…comprehensive plan…
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Short term : 33% more trains on the current Short term : 33% more trains on the current infrastructure (25% increase to CBD)infrastructure (25% increase to CBD)
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Short term - LRT extensionsShort term - LRT extensionsSave $5 billion compared with CBD Metro,Save $5 billion compared with CBD Metro,
And gain better accessibility…And gain better accessibility…
2020
Short term - integrationShort term - integration
Integrated fares and Integrated fares and ticketstickets
Quality interchangesQuality interchanges
Integrated planning and Integrated planning and fundingfunding
Integrated information Integrated information and marketingand marketing
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Energy efficiency and sourcesEnergy efficiency and sources Shift to hybrids, plug Shift to hybrids, plug
in electrics and in electrics and smaller cars is smaller cars is starting..starting..
But will take decadesBut will take decades
Assume 50% cut in Assume 50% cut in oil, GHG and energy oil, GHG and energy per VKT within 27 per VKT within 27 years (2036)years (2036)
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A Thirty Year PT PlanA Thirty Year PT Plan
10% cut in per capita 10% cut in per capita traveltravel
No further rise in car-No further rise in car-VKTVKT
>50% cut in oil use, >50% cut in oil use, GHG emissions GHG emissions (despite 30% pop (despite 30% pop growth)growth)
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A Thirty Year PT Plan: Travel by ModeA Thirty Year PT Plan: Travel by Mode
A= Business as usual; B = 30 Year Plan; C=Major changeA= Business as usual; B = 30 Year Plan; C=Major change
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The Overall PlanThe Overall Plan
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Metro NetworkMetro NetworkFill major heavy rail gaps, links CBDs and universitiesFill major heavy rail gaps, links CBDs and universities
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Inner City LRT NetworkInner City LRT Network serves secondary radial routes in the inner west, serves secondary radial routes in the inner west, east, and inner southern suburbs, and the CBDeast, and inner southern suburbs, and the CBD
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Bus-based Ring Routes and Park and RideBus-based Ring Routes and Park and Ride
Six Ring Routes for Cross-Regional TravelSix Ring Routes for Cross-Regional Travel
Peak Hour Heavy Rail and Metros - 2036Peak Hour Heavy Rail and Metros - 2036 Long Term including High Speed RailLong Term including High Speed Rail
Inbound peak hour trains by route (top)Inbound peak hour trains by route (top)
Build up in peak hour trains arriving CBD, Build up in peak hour trains arriving CBD, Parramatta and Macquarie (right).Parramatta and Macquarie (right).
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Funding SourcesFunding Sources UsersUsers
– FaresFares
Other beneficiariesOther beneficiaries– Accessibility beneficiaries (land)Accessibility beneficiaries (land)– Congestion relief (road congestion charges)Congestion relief (road congestion charges)– Environmental benefits (carbon taxes etc)Environmental benefits (carbon taxes etc)– Social benefits (general taxation to cover Social benefits (general taxation to cover
subsidies for children, pensioners etc)subsidies for children, pensioners etc)
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ImplementationImplementation $40 billion extra $40 billion extra
over 30 years to PTover 30 years to PT
Saves at least Saves at least $100b in car-$100b in car-related costsrelated costs
Implementation by Implementation by a Sydney a Sydney Sustainable Sustainable Transport Board Transport Board with wide with wide representationrepresentation
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ConclusionsConclusions Sydney badly needs a long term plan which Sydney badly needs a long term plan which
addresses peak oil, global warming and other addresses peak oil, global warming and other sustainability issues.sustainability issues.
This needs to have public involvement and This needs to have public involvement and public supportpublic support
We have already seen what happens when a We have already seen what happens when a city doesn’t have such a plan…city doesn’t have such a plan…
The 30 Year Plan aimed to help establish a The 30 Year Plan aimed to help establish a discussion in Sydney on our future transport discussion in Sydney on our future transport needs and solutionsneeds and solutions
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Independent Public InquiryIndependent Public Inquiry Take issue beyond politics – independent of governmentTake issue beyond politics – independent of government
Public MeetingsPublic Meetings
500 submissions500 submissions
Market research and funding analysisMarket research and funding analysis
Key focus on funding, governance, short term Key focus on funding, governance, short term improvements and long term enhancementimprovements and long term enhancement
More opportunities for public involvement when draft More opportunities for public involvement when draft report is released – will set out various options for report is released – will set out various options for comment and feedback.comment and feedback.
Its our city and out children’s future – its up to us….Its our city and out children’s future – its up to us….
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Thank YouThank You
Background reports for Public InquiryBackground reports for Public Inquiry