1 Learning Continuity and Pandemic Flu Management Daniel Tan & Alan Soong Centre for Educational Development e: [email protected].

1

Learning Continuity and Pandemic Flu Management

Daniel Tan & Alan SoongCentre for Educational Development

http://www.ced.ntu.edu.sg

e: [email protected]

2

Outline• Singapore and NTU context

– SARS– NTU campus community profile

• Learning Continuity Model– eLearning Week: requirements and process

model– Operational considerations– Outcomes

• Implications

3

2003: SARS in Singapore

Number of cases:238

Number of deaths:33

Fatality rate:14%

Push Factor #1

4

5

6

- 5.4% drop

7

8

Singapore:Eye of the Epicentre

of current avian flu outbreak

Push Factor #2

9

Epicenter

10

http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm

2003

Case F

atality R

ate

Source: http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm

11

cytokine storm – uncontrolled immune responseNormal Flu Distribution

12

Case Fatality Rate

13

Campus Age Distribution:• 20,000 undergraduates• 7,000 post-graduates• 2,000 staff• 100 children at nursery

Not to scale

30:70 60:4038:62

14

eLearning Week:

Requirements and Process Model as a Tool Of Learning Continuity

for Pandemic Flu Management

• non-alarmist• good push to promote

eLearning processes and practices

15

16

http://edveNTUre.sg

17

Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON)

Isolated external or local cases of animal-to-human transmission. Threat of human-to-human infection remains low.

Slight human-to-human transmission. Small risk of it being imported here, but has not resulted in sustained spread.

Evolves into human disease. WHO confirms several outbreaks in one country, spreading to other countries. Deaths expected. Local confirmation of new cases and evidence of more than one transmission.

Widespread infection. More people die. Healthcare system likely overwhelmed. Essential services need added protection to ensure full operational capacity.

Out of control. Many deaths.Panic.

18

NTU’s Business Continuity Plan - Learning and Research LOA: Leave of Absence

HQO: Home Quarantine Order

Campus closure

19

eLearning Week I Schedule

School-based:

to focus onlearning continuity

processvs

system load issues

20

eLearning Week II Schedule

Scale up to College level:

To include the Colleges in the preparation

process

21

Awareness- posters- announcements- e-announcements

22

Learning Continuity Model:Selected Core Learning Tools

CoreLearningActivities

Lectures TutorialsProjectWork

aculearnpreseNTUr

acuConferenceVirtual Classes

BlackboardDiscussion

Groups

eUrekaProject WorkManagement

System

Assessments

BlackboardAssessment

Engine

Lab-based sessions exempted

23

eLW Learning Activities GuideNo Item Rationale

1. Learning Activities Plan Is there an overview of your course in

the Course Information (Syllabus) section with objectives clearly outlined?

Does the overview include a weekly schedule of Lecture, Tutorial and other associated activities?

Are your lessons well-organized and easy to follow?

• This overview will help your students understand what content and activities they are responsible for studying and completing during the eLW. It also helps students plan their time, guides tutors during the delivery of the module and ensures the pace of delivery is consistent.

• Remember it is possible that any closure due to pandemic avian flu could extend from 6 weeks.

2. Contact Information• Have you supplied your staff details,

i.e. contact phone number, email address, virtual office hrs and photograph?

• Creates an instructor’s social presence which helps humanize your students’ experience on edveNTUre.

3. Announcement• Have you placed a message to your

students in the Announcements explaining clearly what your expectations are for them during the eLearning Week?

• Sets the tone and creates a welcoming environment. Also communicates what they need to do, when they need to do it, and how they should do it.

• Also, mention when is the eLW for your course. This will be very useful if your course is attended by students from other schools.

4. Course Materials• Have you prepared and uploaded your

course materials to the appropriate content area in your course site?

• This lets the students know what they will need to study, and provides reassurance that they will not miss out on important study materials during the eLW.

5. Recorded Lectures• Have you enhanced your course

materials with audio or video?

• This humanizes your presentations and is more engaging than solely text based content delivery.

6. SSL Tutorial Model• The SSL Tutorial Model (simple,

supplementary, logical) is a blended approach where you can use the online Discussion Board with a real-time virtual class-room consultation.

• The model enables students to discuss tutorial questions using the online Discussion Board tool within an edveNTUre course site. As a follow through, a virtual class session can be initiated in which students who need to discuss or consult you can do so at allocated time.

7. EMH Tutorial Model• The EMH Tutorial Model (enriching,

methodical, heuristic) is another blended approach where you can record a session, provide a self evaluation for students, put students into groups, assign a task that requires them to present a particular topic to you upon their return.

• This model enables students to access the video recorded lecture, access the formative assessment at their own pace and time (within a time-frame) and present a presentation based on a project which they have been assigned to carry out when they return to campus. The recorded lecture and formative assessment can be placed in the course site in edveNTUre.

8. Self-paced Post-lecture Test• Set a series of questions for students

to test their own understanding online

• This will provide some quantitative indication on the adoption and outcome of the eLW exercise.

Communication:

Staff must know what to do; Students must know what is

expected of them

24

PreseNTUNTUr for Self-paced Learning

25

acuConference Virtual Classwith dual cameras

26

Online Discussion Groups

27

eAssessment• Post-lecture self

tests– Timely self-feedback

opportunity for students– Open online forum item for

student peers and/or teachers

– Teaching discussion point and lecture review

– Monitoring of student performance with remedial and preventive response

– Provides a level of Quality Assurance of the eLW processes

28

eUrekaOnline Project Work Management System

29

ProjectWork

Tutorial

Lecture

Assessment

Learning Activities Tracking

Closingthe

Loop

30

OPTUS: Online Progress Tracking Usage System

• Track activities and commitment to planned activities– Recorded lectures– Online Discussion Forum & Virtual classes– Self-test– eUreka Project work System

• For management to be duly informed of the eLW learning continuity situation

31

32

33

Lecture Recording Review Statistics

Total UsageSchool

Usage only

AY2005/06 AY2006/07

Sem I Sem IISem IeLW I

Sem IIeLW II

 Viewing Time

Hits Duration Hits Duration Hits Duration Hits Duration

Total/sec 130,850 194,144,081 149,888 206,495,629 585,738 514,814,138 737,359 741,166,639

Hours   53,929   57,360   143,004   205,880

Days 2,247 2,390 5,958 8,578

Years 6.31 6.71 16.74 24.10

Years for AY

13.03 40.83

Total No. of Courses

54 57 135 104

Total No. of lecture

hours (x26)1,404   1,482 3,510 2,704

Rate of re-teach:

38.41   38.70   40.74   76.14

s/hit 1483.7 1377.7 878.9 1005.2

m/hit 24.7 23.0 14.6 16.8

34

PreseNTUr system configuration

• 1 x AcuManager • 12 x AcuStream Video Servers

– 8 existing servers– 4 new servers setup in

preparation of eLW• Can support up to 2,400 users

via video streaming

35

Content Delivery NetworkContent Access Process

1

IDM 2000IDM 2000AcuManagAcuManagerer

2

3

student clickson hyperlink

–> optimum performance redirection and very high scalability

AcuStream

AcuStream

AcuStream

AcuStream

4

edveNTUre.sg

36

Visualization of System Utilization

• Provides a quantitative understanding of the system back-end operations

• Graphical data of CPU, network and database services

• Provide understanding of load impact due to online access to learning continuity

37

Implications

38

University can – with confidence - press the button

earlier

39

Assoc Prof Daniel Tan

e: [email protected]

40

Spares

41

Disease Transmission ofSARS and Avian Flu

42

Disease Transmission of SARS

43

Assumptions about Disease Transmission

• No one is immune to the virus; 30% of the population will become ill

• Most will become ill 2 days (incubation range 1-10, typically 7) after exposure to the virus

• People may be contagious up to 24 hours before they know they are sick

• People are most contagious the first 2 days of being sick

– Sick children are more contagious than adults

• On average, each ill person can infect 2 or 3 others (if no precautions are taken)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910C

on

tact

44

Assumptions about Disease Transmission

• Pandemics move through community in waves

• Each wave in a community will last 6-8 weeks

• There will be at least 2 “waves” of pandemic disease, likely separated by several months

• The entire pandemic period (all waves) will last about 18 months to 2 years

• Disease may break out in multiple locations simultaneously, or in isolated pockets

45

Arithmetic of Pandemic Fluuncontrolled for country of 4M population

46

Potential Realities over 8 weeks• 30% of population

= 1.2 million people sick (including 300,000 children)

• 120,000 hospital admissions• 30,000 deaths (includes 8,000 children);• 500 deaths per day (about 140 children)

• Not enough: Vaccine, antiviral meds (tamiflu), hospital beds, ventilators, face masks, etc.

• …plus schools closed, many parents/family members ill, potential quarantines, economy in trouble, little assistance from “the outside”, etc.

47

1918 Spanish Flu (H1N1 similar to H5N1 virus)

48

Implications & Outcomes

49

http://mercerselect.com/article/20076090/t/y2-cj0zMzI1MiZsPTQ5MDgzJm09NTAwODMmZj0z-ZD05NDE2/

50

Post-perspective• We cannot stop a pandemic (beyond your control),

but we can lessen the impact (within your control) by planning, preparation and anticipation

• Then when it strikes, there will be more options to consider

Imp

act

Weeks

Prepared

Unprepared After-shock