1 Koray K. Yilmaz Maitreya Yadav Hoshin Gupta Thorsten Wagener [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]NWS OFFICE OF HYDROLOGIC DEVELOPMENT Annual Meeting, 01/20/2006 Parameterization and Parameter Estimation of Distributed Models For Flash Flood and River Prediction
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
1
Koray K. Yilmaz Maitreya YadavHoshin Gupta Thorsten Wagener
Work Completed Until Previous Annual Presentation (01/17/05)
• Hydrology Laboratory-Research Modeling System (HL-RMS) was implemented at the University of Arizona and tested
• Literature review of the frameworks developed for incorporating watershed physical properties (i.e. geology, soil properties, remote sensing)to model structure identification and parameter estimation
Work Completed During Current Project Year (01/17/05–01/20/06)
• Hydrology Laboratory-Research Modeling System (HL-RMS) was linked to a automated optimization algorithm called “MOSCEM” (Multi Objective Shuffled Complex Evolution – Metropolis) – enables optimization of a priori parameter multipliers
• A model diagnostic interface was developed using MATLAB® environment
• A study was undertaken to :
• Analyze the consistency between the a-priori parameter information and the information contained in the input-output data, using multi-objective optimization
• Analyze the relationship between the uncertainty in the soil hydraulic
parameters and the uncertainty in the hydrologic model parameters
• Create an uncertainty framework to constrain ensemble predictions in
The presented approach is so far based on the use of small scaledata to parameterize the model. The approach is thuslimited by the type of information contained in this data, e.g. problem with recession.
How can we include watershed scale behavior to constrain the model at ungauged sites?
• Yilmaz, K., Hogue, T.S., Hsu, K.-L., Sorooshian, S., Gupta, H.V. and Wagener, T. 2005. Evaluation of rain gauge, radar and satellite-based precipitation estimates with emphasis on hydrologic forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 6(4), 497–517.
• Wagener, T. and Gupta, H.V. 2005. Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis. DOI 10.1007/s00477-005-0006-5.
• Yadav, M., Wagener, T. and Gupta, H.V. Regionalization of dynamic watershed behavior. In Andréassian, V., Chahinian, N., Hall, A., Perrin, C. and Schaake, J. (eds.) Large sample basin experiments for hydrological model parameterization Results of the MOdel Parameter Estimation
Experiment (MOPEX) Paris (2004) and Foz de Iguaçu (2005) workshops. IAHS Redbook. In Press.
• McIntyre, N., Lee, H., Wheater, H.S., Young, A. and Wagener, T. 2005. Ensemble prediction of runoff in ungauged watersheds. Water Resources Research, 41, W12434, doi: 10.1029/2005WR004289.
•Wagener, T. and Wheater, H.S. 2006. Parameter estimation and regionalization for continuous rainfall-runoff models including uncertainty. Journal of Hydrology. In Press. (Available online 2 September 2005)
• Hogue, T.S., Yilmaz, K., Wagener, T. and Gupta, H.V. Modeling ungauged basins with the Sacramento model. In Andréassian, V., Chahinian, N., Hall, A., Perrin, C. and Schaake, J. (eds.) Large sample basin experiments for hydrological model parameterization Results of the MOdel Parameter
Experiment (MOPEX) Paris (2004) and Foz de Iguaçu (2005) workshops. IAHS Redbook. In Press.