Top Banner
1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 www.RetirementWatch.com
26

1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

Dec 25, 2015

Download

Documents

Samuel Mosley
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

1

Key Personal Finance Issues for

2010-2011Bob CarlsonEditor, Retirement Watch

AAII-DCOctober 2010

800-552-1152 www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 2: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

2

Today’s 5 Key Issues

• Managing IRAs

• The Current Investment Regime

• Changing Income Taxes

• Financing Retiree Medical Care

• Estate Taxes in Limbo

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 3: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

3

Benefits of Roth IRAs

• Qualified distributions are tax free• Returns of principal are tax free• No required minimum distributions• Heirs can continue tax-free lifetime distributions• Excellent estate planning vehicle• Conversion can be reversed

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 4: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

4

Conversion Basics

• Any traditional IRA, many employer plans can be converted

• Pay tax on conversion

• Can defer taxes on 2010 conversions

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 5: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

5

Basic Factors to Consider• Rate of return

• Effective tax rates before and after conversion

• Source of money to pay the conversion taxes

• Compounding period/Other sources of income

• State income taxes

• Current value versus past and future values

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 6: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

6

Less-Known/Overlooked Factors• Income taxes on Social Security benefits

• Medicare premium surtax

• Phaseout of income tax breaks

• Alternative minimum tax

• Earlier in the year is best

• Will the law change?/Tax diversification

• Convert in stages

• Convert each investment in own Roth

• After-tax contributions

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 7: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

7

Converting Employer Plans• Most types of employer plans can be directly converted to Roths; same basic terms• Most likely:

• Left 401(k) at former employer• Allowed an “in-service distribution”

• Major difference is after-tax contributions• Might be able to convert only after-tax contributions• Don’t convert employer stock

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 8: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

8

Should You Defer Conversion Taxes?

Spouses can decide separately

Individual can’t decide separately for each account

Will pay at 2011 and 2012 tax rates

Tax deferral does not change reversal deadline

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 9: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

9

Changing Your Mind Recharacterizations are allowed

Deadline: due date for return, including extensions

Main Reasons: IRA’s value declines Your situation changes/aware of new facts

Reconvert: Later of 30 days and next calendar year

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 10: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

10

Understanding theInvestment Climate

• Not the typical post-WWII decline/recovery

• Deleveraging/deflation or Balance Sheet Recession Or New Normal

• Public stimulus vs. private contraction

• Developed vs. Developing World

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 11: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

11Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

HOUSEHOLD DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GNP

Page 12: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

12

Characteristics of the Climate

• Little private sector credit growth• Slow economic growth in developed

world• Low inflation or deflation• Low interest rates, investment

returns• Will continue until debt reduced

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 13: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

13

• Risk management most important

• Risk of the portfolio more important than risk of assets

• Forecasting essential to risk reduction

• Reduce correlations with major indexes

Investing as Risk Management

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 14: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

14

4 Strategies that Work

True diversification in portfolio

Active management, tactical allocation Add a “tail risk” hedge Retirement “buckets” strategy TIPS-plus strategy

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 15: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

15

True Diversification

• Investments with low correlations

• Low correlations with major indexes

• Add more asset classes

• Add different strategies

• Change asset allocation based on prospects — forecasting

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 16: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

16

TIPS-Plus Strategy

Money for expenses invested for safety 10% or so in growth Can use leverage for growth Means need to save more At retirement, inflation-indexed annuities

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 17: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

17

Retirement “Buckets” Strategy Also known as liability-driven investing Safe fund for 2-5 years of expenses

Longer-term, diversified fund

Can break down further

Much like saving for college

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 18: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

18

To Boost Retirement Income Maximize Social Security

Delay receiving benefits Use benefits strategies

Immediate Annuities Annuities with inflation indexing Higher yield = higher volatility

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 19: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

19

Why Disasters Don’t Happen

• Diverse, service-oriented economy

• Regulators, investors aware of problem

• Globalization, with weak linkages

• Sectors not as correlated

• Wealth effects are lagged

Page 20: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

20

The End of Tax Deferral?

• Classic advice: Don’t pay taxes until have to. Reasons:

• Pay in cheaper dollars

• Earn a return while holding dollars

• Look for opportunities to reduce future taxes

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 21: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

21

What’s Different• Tax increases already enacted

• Income tax increases scheduled

• More tax increases likely

• Fewer tax brackets

• Hard to figure current and future tax rates

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 22: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

22

Advantages ofNot Deferring

Capital gains not converted to ordinary income

Control timing of tax bills

Possibly lowest tax rates of the rest of your life

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 23: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

23

Tax Strategies for Today

Take capital gains before 2011? Conversions to Roth IRAs Investing in taxable accounts Tax diversification Continue re-evaluating annually

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 24: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

24

• Medicare Advantage likely to shrink• Traditional Medicare expands• Still need coverage for Medicare gaps• Prescription drug coverage• Long-term care a private expense• New CLASS program

Financing RetirementMedical Expenses

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 25: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

25

• Expanded Part D drug coverage• Reduced subsidy for higher income

Part D members• More people pay premium surtax• Various pilot programs attempt to

improve care, cut costs• More preventive care• Higher taxes, fewer tax breaks

Key Elements of Reform

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com

Page 26: 1 Key Personal Finance Issues for 2010-2011 Bob Carlson Editor, Retirement Watch AAII-DC October 2010 800-552-1152 .

26

Uncertainty & Estate Taxes

• Estate planning is more than taxes

• Flexibility in estate plan

• Educate heirs on IRAs, other choices

• Use of trusts is increasing

• Focus on protection, probate, management

Bob Carlson’s RETIREMENT WATCH www.RetirementWatch.com