1 Item 4: Long time series when major changes occur Recalculation of the Russian GDP Series due to Introduction of New Classifications Irina Masakova Rosstat.

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Item 4: Long time series when major changes occur

Recalculation of the Russian GDP Series due to Introduction of New Classifications

Irina MasakovaRosstat

Joint UNECE / Eurostat / OECD Meeting on National Accounts(Geneva, 25 - 28 April 2006)

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Main issues

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

OKONKh: previously used classification (institutional industries)

OKVED: new classification (kinds of economic activity)

Changes in the accounting standards and regulations

Matrix approach to recalculation of the GDP series

Main results of the GDP series revision

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Classification OKONKh

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

Russian classification of the industries of the economy - OKONKH:

grouping by kinds of activities of different character

accounting unit – establishment of the enterprise realizing an homogenous activity

800 kinds of activity

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Classification OKVED

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

Russian Classification of Kinds of Economic Activity– OKVED:

Similar to NACE

category – kind of economic activity

1800 kinds of activity

in force since January 1, 2003; 2003-2004 – the transition period; data collected by two classifications (OKONKh and OKVED)

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An enterprise in the framework of OKONKh

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

Metallurgy plant

Green-houses

Mining of ferrous metal ores

Rolled metal

production

Metal blocks

product-ion

Metal ware product-

ion

Bakery Construct-ion unit

Agri-culture Industry

Construc-tion

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Comparison of OKONKh and OKVED

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

OKONKh

Stand alone boilers

Production of ferrous metals

Steel pipes

Underground mining of

ferrous metal ores

Coking industry

Metal blocks

production

Electric power

Ferrous metallurgy

Production of light

metal ware

Machine-building and metal processing

OKVED

Industry

Е - Electricity, gas, water: production and

distribution

Non-metallic construction

materials

Construction materials

CB Mining exclusive of fuels

С - Mining

DJ

Metal production and finished metal goods

DF Production of coke, oil

products and nuclear

materials

D – Manufacturing

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Changes in the accounting standards and regulations

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

1. Resolution on the composition of production costs

2. Tax Code

3. New definition of the main kind of activity

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Matrix approach (1)

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

А – volume of shipments

B – changes in inventories of finished goods

C – changes in unfinished production

D – raw materials for tolling

E – subsidies on production

F – taxes on production

X – output of the industry

For each А, …, Х a matrix is constructed

Institutional industry

Pure industry

X = A + B + C + D – E + F

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Matrix approach (2)

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

А

BC

D

X

150 300

100

250

Output by institutional industries

Output by pure industries

Enterprise statistics

Correction matrix

Alternative data sources

+50

+150

150

400

200 450

X’

Output matrix

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Matrix approach (3)

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

Gross Value Added Calculation

GVA – gross value added

IC – intermediate consumption

IC_ratio – ratio of intermediate consumption to gross output

IC = X’ * IC_ratio

GVA = X’ - IC

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Matrix approach (4)

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

X СA

0/1

X CB

0/1

X CC

0/1

X CD

0/1

X CE

0/1

X EA

0/1

X EB

0/1

X EC

0/1 X ED

0/1

X EE

0/1

X AA

0/1

X AC

0/1

X AD

0/1

X AE

0/1

X AB

0/1

X AA

0/1

X AC

0/1

X AD

0/1

X AE

0/1

X AB

0/1

+ =

X BA

0/1

X BB

0/1

X BC

0/1

X BD

0/1

X BE

0/1

X DA

0/1

X DB

0/1

X DC

0/1

X DD

0/1

X DE

0/1

X DA

0/1

X DB

0/1

X DC

0/1

X DD

0/1

X DE

0/1

X BA

0/1

X BB

0/1

X BC

0/1

X BD

0/1

X BE

0/1

X СA

0/1

X CB

0/1

X CC

0/1

X CD

0/1

X CE

0/1

X EA

0/1

X EB

0/1

X EC

0/1

X ED

0/1

X EE

0/1

AjX

BjX

CjX

DjX

EjX

iAX iBX iCX iDX iEX

Calculation of output in constant prices

Matrix obtained by extrapolation

Matrix obtained by deflation

Output in constant prices

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Main results of the GDP recalculation

FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

Real GDP to Q1 1995

OKONKh OKVED Change

2003 I 123.0 123.0 0.0

II 130.7 131.6 0.9

III 151.3 150.8 - 0.5

IV 144.8 148.7 3.9

2004 I 131.9 131.8 - 0.1

II 140.5 141.9 1.4

III 162.1 161.6 - 0.5

IV 154.6 158.7 4.1