1 IPCC Media & Climate Change: Getting the Message to the People R. K. Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI Roanoke, Virginia 17 th October 2008.

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Media & Climate Change: Getting the Message to the People

R. K. PachauriChairman, IPCC

Director-General, TERI

Roanoke, Virginia17th October 2008

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

Science at the service of policy-making

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Role of the IPCC

The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation & mitigation

WMO UNEP

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References to the IPCC in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007)

“Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts”

“[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially the least developed countries and small island developing States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods”

“[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”

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Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

1. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

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Changes in global average surface temperature

Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental

record of global surface temperature

50 years 0.128oC

100 years 0.074oC Period Rate / decade

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Global temperature change

1900 1950 2000

Year

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

mal

y

1

0.5

0

Models using only natural forcing

Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcing

Observations

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II. Observed changes in climateChanges in global average sea level

Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr

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Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system

during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th

century”

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Carbon dioxide emissions

Rad

iati

ve F

orc

ing

(W

m )

Car

bo

n D

ioxi

de

(pp

m)

10000 5000 0

Time (before 2005)

-2Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in 1970-2004

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Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century

year

Ranges for predicted surface warming

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People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:

120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia 12 to 81 million in Latin America 75 to 250 million in Africa

Expected impacts on poor regions

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia30% by 2080 in Latin America50% by 2020 in some African countries

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

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Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

3. “Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that may offset

a substantial fraction of mitigation costs”

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Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

Global mean temp.

increase (ºC)

Year CO2

needs to peak

Global sea level rise above pre- industrial from

thermal expansion

(m)

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015 0.4 – 1.4

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020 0.5 – 1.7

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030 0.6 – 1.9

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060 0.6 – 2.4

Characteristics of stabilisation scenarios

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GDP without mitigation

GDP with stringent mitigation

2030

GDP

TimeCurrent

Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term

Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP

Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)

Schematic graph

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Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution

Increased energy security

Increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems

More rural employment

Co-benefits of mitigation

Co-benefits provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs

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Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions lead to investments that lock in more emission intensive infrastructure and development pathways

Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentrations were held constant, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade

Mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies

The urgent need for action

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The role of the media:

Ensuring proper focus on the future by getting the right messages across

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The media and climate change: excerpts

Time Magazine special Environment issue, April 2008

“The earth must be inevitably changing its aspect and its climate. How the change is slowly taking place and what the result will be has been considered.”

(New York Times, 1932)

“Every time you start a car, light a fire, or turn on a furnace you’re joining the greatest weather “experiment” men have ever launched.”

(Christian Science Monitor, 1957)

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Role and limitations of mass media

Mass media has shaped perceptions on climate change and has broadly affected translations between science and policy

However, the media may not have reported enough on the urgency and depth of the changes needed

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Some recommendations

Go beyond the cyclical coverage of climate change & emphasise its day-to-day relevance

Adaptation & mitigation issues can be linked to a variety of news items and topics

Inform, but also stimulate audience to think and act and emphasise existing solutions

Citizens and consumers’ opinion & choices are the main factors of pressure on decision-makers

Link climate change to other issues of sustainable development Fighting climate change goes through the creation of a more

sustainable society

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Media and public opinion on climate policy

Issue of developing countries’ rising emissions currently dominates US public opinion on policy action in climate change

India’s per capita emissions about 5 % of US per capita emissions; China’s less than 20% 

Integrating climate change into development policies is crucial, but lack of quantitative targets for developing countries should not be

an alibi for US inaction.

Media has a critical role in forming public opinion, to galvanise policy action on climate change

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Equity aspect of climate change

The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately

on developing nations, and poorer people in all countries

In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to

climate change.

Health Impacts: increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; increased

burden of diarrhoeal disease; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases; altered spatial distribution of some

infectious disease vectors.

In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020

Small islands are especially vulnerable

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“All of us who professionally use the mass media are the shapers of society. We can vulgerize that society. We can brutalize it. Or we can help lift it onto a higher level.”

- William Bernbach,Advertising Executive