1 Introduction To The Middle School Data Team This Demo Uses Fictional Data For Purposes of Example The Ultimate Goal is to Answer Your Questions with.

1

Introduction To The Middle School Data Team

This Demo Uses Fictional Data For Purposes of Example

The Ultimate Goal is to Answer

Your Questions with Your Data

DataTeamConsulting.Com

2

Middle School Data Team

Purpose of the Data Team

The purpose of the Middle School data team is to use quantitative and qualitative data, as much as possible, to improve teaching and learning.

Members of the Data Team

The purpose of this presentation is to invite you to become a member of the data team. To provide a taste of the possibilities, we will present one line of inquiry of interest to the current members. The current members:

Roberto da Costa Samuel GuthrieXi’an Coy Manh

Danielle MoonstarSean Parker (consultant)

Rahne Sinclair


3

How well do 5th grade Math MCAS scores predict 6th grade Math MCAS scores?

Scatterplot of 6th grade math scores vs. 5th grade math scores (n = 159).

We will use MCAS scale scores.

220 = N.I.

240 = Prof.

260 = Adv.

Warning/Failing

Needs Improvement

Proficient

Advanced


4

Initials: L.H.Math MCAS

5th Grade: 2386th Grade: 248

Initials: J.P.Math MCAS


Initials: R.K.Math MCAS


What does the scatterplot tell us?

Initials: F.J.Math MCAS


Initials: L.M.Math MCAS




5

Each data point is a small part of a much larger story.



6

We can make predictions based on the (limited) data.



7

The prediction line is “pulled” by every observation.



8

Once we have a prediction line, we can use it to make predictions.

Example:

For students who score 240 on the 5th grade Math MCAS, we predict that they will score 242 on the 6th grade Math MCAS.

Of course, some students do much better (or worse) than our prediction.

242



9

We can also use the prediction to identify students who break the pattern.

Example:

Some students do much better on the 6th grade Math MCAS than we would predict based on their 5th grade scores.

Is there a pattern within the pattern?



10

Is there a pattern within the pattern?

We have two valuable resources to answer this question.

• First and foremost, we have teachers with deep professional knowledge of these students. For example, if given a list of names of students who do better than predicted, teachers may be able to discern commonalities and perhaps causes.

• Secondly, we have additional quantitative information that we can bring to bear. For example, first semester grades provide information over and above the previous year’s MCAS score. (Note that numbers alone cannot get at causes unless we have random “treatment” and “control” groups.)

For grades, we will use an average of English, social studies, math and science, because we know that all subjects are correlated with all MCAS tests. (We will include more subjects in the average as we get the data.)


11

Using grades to uncover the pattern within the pattern.

Students who earned an A in their first semester at Middle School: RED


12


A

Students who earned an A in their first semester at Middle School: REDStudents who earned a B in their first semester at Middle School: Blue


13


A

B

Students who earned a B in their first semester at Middle School: BlueStudents who earned a C in their first semester at Middle School: Green


14


A

B

C

Students who earned a C in their first semester at Middle School: Green


15

We can use the prediction lines to make predictions.

A

B

C

The previous year’s MCAS score is not destiny.

Example:

For students who score 240 on the 5th grade Math MCAS, we predict differently depending on how they perform in the first semester of the 6th grade.

252

242

232

Predicted 6th grade math scores based on 5th grade math scores and first-semester grades.


16

We can use this information to flag students who may need extra help.

A

B

C

Example:

Almost all students who earn a C in the first semester of the 6th grade are at risk of scoring less than 240, regardless of how they scored on the 5th grade math MCAS.


17

Some students break the pattern, and teachers can see who.

A

B

C

Example:

Some students do much better on the 6th grade Math MCAS than we would predict based on 5th grade scores and first term grades.



18

We can construct plots for not only Math MCAS but also for ELA MCAS.

200

220

240

260

280

200 220 240 260 280

5th Grade Math MCAS

Pre

dic

ted

6th

Gra

de

Mat

h M

CA

S

A

C

B

200

220

240

260

280

200 220 240 260 280

5th Grade ELAMCAS

Pre

dic

ted

6th

Gra

de

EL

A M

CA

S

A

C

B

Predicted 6th grade MCAS scores based on 5th grade scores and first-semester grades.

Math ELA


19

We can also construct plots to predict 7th grade scores.

200

220

240

260

280

200 220 240 260 280

6th Grade Math MCAS

Pre

dic

ted

7th

Gra

de

Mat

h M

CA

S

A

C

B

200

220

240

260

280

200 220 240 260 280

6th Grade ELA MCAS

Pre

dic

ted

7th

Gra

de

EL

A M

CA

S

A

C

B


Math ELA


20

We can also construct plots to predict 8th grade scores.

200

220

240

260

280

200 220 240 260 280

7th Grade Math MCAS

Pre

dic

ted

8th

Gra

de

Mat

h M

CA

S

A

C

B

200

220

240

260

280

200 220 240 260 280

7th Grade ELA MCAS

Pre

dic

ted

8th

Gra

de

EL

A M

CA

S

A

C

B


Math ELA


21

Future Lines of Inquiry

Future lines of inquiry for the data team:

• Does the MCAS/grades pattern hold up across the years? (The current patterns are based on one cohort.)

• What other factors do we need to consider? E.g., special education status, free lunch eligibility, classroom conduct as assessed by teachers.

• Based on professional experience and knowledge, what are the potential causes? How can we dig deeper into the causes using qualitative and quantitative data?

Future lines of inquiry for an action team:

What policies and interventions do the data suggest? (The data team and the action teams should be separate. The purpose of the data team should be informative.)


22

Appendix I

-20

-10

01

02

0R

esid

ual

s

200 220 240 260 280Fitted values

Assumption Checking

• Appears Normal

• Independence Is Tricky

• Appears Homoskedastic

• Appears Linear

• No Apparent Outlier Problem

• No Stat Sig Interaction

GPA 4.0 Scale (Continuous)

See Appendix II for 3-D Scatterplot

RVF Plot:


23

Appendix II


1 Introduction To The Middle School Data Team This Demo Uses Fictional Data For Purposes of Example The Ultimate Goal is to Answer Your Questions with.

Documents

th grade scores

th grade math mcas scores

th grade math scores

com slide

data datateamconsulting

mcas scale scores

semester grades

b students