1. indonesia economic outlook andry asmoro

Indonesia Economic Outlook 2016: Optimis namun tetap Waspada

Office of Chief EconomistPT. Bank Mandiri, Tbk

Jakarta, 3 Maret 2016

Division

© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.

Topik Bahasan

• Kemana arah ekonomi global?

• Ekonomi Indonesia akan terus tumbuh?

• Perkembangan APBN: Menunggu akselerasi belanja pemerintah

2

Kemana arah ekonomi global?


Office of Chief Economist

* Difference from October 2015 WEO projections

ASEAN-5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam

Sumber: International Monetary Fund, January 2016

Jan 2016 WEO

Area 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015P 2016 % Δ* 2017 % Δ*

World 5.1 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.4 -0.2 3.6 -0.2

US 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 -0.2 2.6 -0.2

Euro Area 2.0 1.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.1 1.7 0.0

Japan 4.5 -0.6 1.5 1.6 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1

UK 1.8 1.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.2 2.2 0.0 2.2 0.0

China 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.3 0.0 6.0 0.0

India 10.1 6.3 4.7 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 0.0 7.5 0.0

Russia 4.3 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -3.7 -1.0 -0.4 1.0 0.0

ASEAN-5 7.0 4.5 6.2 5.1 4.6 4.7 4.8 -0.1 5.1 -0.2

Volatilitas masih cukup tinggi: IMF kembali menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global ke 3.4% dari 3.6% pada 2016

Note: P = Prediction, * = Preliminary Sumber: IMF

(10) – 1.0

1.0 – 3.0

3.0 – 5.0

5.0 – 7.0

7.0 – 10

(% YoY)

Russia2016: -1.02017: 1.0

US2016: 2.62017: 2.6

ASEAN-52016: 4.82017: 5.1

India2016: 7.52017: 7.5

Japan2016: 1.02017: 0.3

Euro Zone2016: 1.72017: 1.7

WORLD2016: 3.42017: 3.6

7

Negara-negara produsen komoditas seperti Rusia dan Brazil kemungkinan masih akan mengalami kontraksi pada tahun 2016 dan 2017

31.87 34.13

63.29

48.3%

-11.4%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-

14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Trade Balance (USD bn) LHS Export Growth (RHS)

Kinerja ekspor China cenderung memburuk, hal ini turut berpengaruh kepada aktivitas ekonomi global

Sumber: CEIC

7Source: CEIC, Bank Mandiri

Dampak China sangat besar terhadap Indonesia

GDP Sensitivity of ASEAN Countries to Major economies (%)

CountryElastici

ty

1.72 1.45 2.15

1.10 0.81 0.90

0.88 0.77 0.85

0.60 0.49 0.27

0.05 0.06 0.11

note: every 1% decrease in China’s GDP, Indonesia’s GDP will decrease 0.11%;every 1% decrease in US’s GDP, Indonesia’s GDP will decrease 0.05%

1 Japan (11.9%)

Singapore (14.0%)

USA(5.8%)

Japan (21.1%)

2 USA (10.7%)

China (13.2%)

China (5.7%)

USA (15.1%)

3 China (9.7%)

Japan (9.6%)

Hong Kong (2.8%)

China (11.4%)

4 Singapore (8.4%)

USA (9.5%)

Malaysia (2.5%)

Hong Kong (10.3%)

5 India (7.8%)

Thailand (5.8%)

Australia (2.3%)

Singapore (6.1%)

Export to GDP 22% 73% 78% 55%

China is the main export destination for ASEAN countries (% of GDP)

Harga komoditas global menurun sejak tahun 2014, beberapa komoditas sedikit membaik pada tahun 2016

2014: -32%2015: -44%2016: -11%

2014: -18%2015: -29%2016: 0.2%

2014: -20%2015: -13%2016: +15%

2014: -38%2015: -26%2016: +1.8%

2014: -29%2015: -39%2016: -21%

WTI Crude Oil USD 31.1/bbl

Brent Crude Oil USD 30.8/bbl

CoalUSD 46.2/MT

CPOUSD 600/MT

RubberUSD 1.2/Kg

Sumber: Bloomberg (per 15 Februari 2016, %YTD)



Monthly Macroeconomic Booklet - March 2016

Pertumbuhan ekspor terus melemah sepanjang 2015 yang lalu

Source: Bloomberg

(IDR bn)

56

0.05

10.5 10.4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20Ja

n-10

Apr-

10Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1O

ct-1

1Ja

n-12

Apr-

12Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3O

ct-1

3Ja

n-14

Apr-

14Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5Ja

n-16

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Trade Balance - RHS

Export - LHS

Import - LHS

© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.10

Ekspor mainan Indonesia melemah signifikan pada 2015 sebesar 15,6%

Ekspor –impor mainan Indonesia (2007-2014)

(USD mn) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (%YoY)

Export 251.5 368.2 360.0 451.2 545.1 512.1 432.1 (15.6)

Import 110.2 167.2 200.0 250.9 232.3 159.1 156.0 (2.0)

Trade Balance 141.4 201.0 160.1 200.3 312.8 353.0 276.1 (21.8)

Sumber: BPS


Surplus perdagangan mainan Indonesia turun ke USD276.1 mn pada 2015

Trade Balance

Sumber: BPS

(USD mn)

432.

1

512.

1

545.

1

451.

2

360.

0

368.

2

156.

0

159.

1

232.

3

250.

9

200.

0

167.

2

276.1

353.0312.8

200.3

160.1201.0

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Export Import TB


Tujuan ekspor mainan utama Indonesia adalah AS (35,8%) dan China merupakan negara pengekspor mainan terbesar ke Indonesia (60.6%) pada 2014

Negara utama tujuan ekspor mainan Indonesia

Negara utama asal impor mainan Indonesia

Sumber: Intracen

No. Negara Value % YoY % thd Total

1. US 183.4 (3.7) 35.8

2. UK 48.3 11.4 9.4

3. Japan 31.2 6.9 6.1

4. Singapore 27.7 (18.0) 5.4

5. Germany 23.1 (1.7) 4.5

(USD mn) (USD mn)

No. Negara Value % YoY % thd Total

1. China 96.5 (39.2) 60.6

2. Japan 9.1 (8.9) 5.7

3. Malaysia 9.0 43.0 5.7

4. Taipei, Chinese 4.9 (18.7) 3.1

5. HK 4.7 (42.5) 3.0


Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toys adalah jenis mainan utama predagangan luar negeri Indonesia pada 2014

Jenis mainan utama ekspor mainan Indonesia

Jenis mainan utama impor mainan Indonesia

Sumber: Intracen

No. Jenis Value % YoY % thd Total

1.Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars

391.8 (8.7) 76.5

2. Golf balls 25.2 15.6 4.9

3. Fishing rods 20.0 16.2 3.9

4.Equip for sports and outdoor games

18.3 (4.3) 3.6

5. Inflatable balls 17.5 (12.9) 3.4

(USD mn) (USD mn)

No. Jenis Value % YoY % thd Total

1.Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars

67.4 (42.1) 42.4

2.Gymnasium or athletics articles and equipment

27.7 (15.4) 17.4

3. Games, coin or disc-operated 8.8 (3.6) 5.5

4.Roundabouts, swings, shooting galleries

5.7 (35.9) 3.6

5.Equip for sports and outdoor games

5.5 (10.9) 3.5

Rupiah bergerak cukup stabil karena ekspektasi perbaikan ekonomi domestik dan masuknya aliran modal asing

Sumber: Bloomberg

Currencies against USD(% ytd)

depreciateappreciate

Updated 15 Februari 2016

depreciateappreciate

IDR against others (% ytd)

0.3%

-3.3%

-0.1%

-1.0%

0.7%

1.4%

1.3%

2.8%

1.8%

2.5%

2.6%

2.9%

-5.3%

-3.6%

-2.9%

-1.2%

-0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

1.0%

1.3%

2.9%

3.0%

5.3%

Japan

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

Singapore

China

Turki

Brazil

Philippines

Korea

India

Rusia

Feb 16 YTD

Jan 16 YTD

-6.8%

-2.0%

1.2%

-0.2%

0.1%

-1.3%

-1.4%

-5.6%

-0.7%

-1.0%

-2.3%

1.1%

4.2%

-4.9%

-3.0%

-2.9%

-2.6%

-2.4%

-2.1%

-2.0%

-1.9%

-1.4%

-1.0%

-0.9%

0.0%

3.2%

RussiaIndiaUSD

Hong KongThailand

PhilippinesMalaysiaAustralia

ChinaSingapore

BrazilEuro

Japan

Feb 16 YTDJan 16 YTD

Berdasarkan REER Rupiah masih undervalued

Source: BIS, last updated Desember 2015

130.3

110

103

89.8

82.6

71.767.8

80.1

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

REER, 2010 = 100

China Indonesia Korea

Russia ASEAN-5 ex Indonesia Fragile-5 ex Indonesia

Brazil Turkey

Appreciate

Depreciate

Ekonomi Indonesia akan terus tumbuh?

Ekonomi Indonesia 4Q15 didukung oleh kenaikan investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah

Investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah tumbuh lebih tinggi dibandingkan kuarta sebelumnya

PDB Indonesia tumbuh 5.04% pada 4Q15 lebih tinggi dari 3Q15 yang sebesar 4,73% (YoY)

Sumber: BPS

6.48

6.27

6.01

5.94 6.

11 6.21

5.94

5.87

5.61

5.59

5.5 5.

615.

145.

034.

92 5.01

4.71

4.67 4.73

5.04

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

2.8 3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7 2.9

1.3 1.4 1.11.5 1.61.7

-1.83

4.795.02 4.734.674.72

5.586.036.17

(3)(2)(1)-1234567

2011

2012

2013

2014

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

Household Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation Net ExportNon-profit institutions GDP Growth(ppt)

Sumber: BPS

Expenditure (YoY, %) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2016F

Household expenditure 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Non-profit institutions serving household expenditure 5.5 6.7 8.2 12.4 -6.3 -8.3 -7.9 6.4 8.3

Government Expenditure 5.5 4.5 6.9 2.0 5.4 2.2 2.3 6.6 7.3 5.0

Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8.9 9.1 5.3 4.1 5.1 4.4 3.6 4.6 6.9 4.8

Exports 14.8 1.6 4.7 1.0 -2.0 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -6.4 3.5

Less imports 15.0 8.0 1.9 2.2 -5.8 -2.2 -6.9 -6.1 -8.1 3.8

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 6.17 6.03 5.58 5.02 4.79 4.71 4.67 4.73 5.04 5.0

PDB Indonesia 2015 tumbuh 4,79% lebih baik dari perkiraan sebesar 4,74% (YoY)



Dari sisi wilayah, Kawasan Timur Indonesia mencatat pertumbuhan yang tinggi dimana Provinsi NTB dan Sulawesi Tengah tumbuh dua digit

Sumber: BPS

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia per provinsi, 2015 (% yoy)

PDB 2015: 4.79% YoY

Sumut5.1

Riau-0.1

Kepri5.2

Sumbar5.3

Jambi4.7

Bengkulu5.2

Sumsel4.6

Babel4.1

Lampung5.1

DKI6.7Jabar

5.0

Jateng5.4

DIY4.9

Jatim5.5

Bali6.1 NTB

17.8 NTT5.0

Kalbar4.4

Kalteng7.0

Kaltim-1.4

Kalsel3.8

Sulut6.2Gorontalo

6.2

Sulteng15.9

Sulbar7.5

Sulsel6.8

Sultra7.0

Malut6.2

Maluku5.4

Pabar4.4

Papua8.0

Aceh-0.7

> 7%5.5% - 7%4% - 5.49%<4%

Banten5.3

Beberapa indikator menunjukkan arah yang positif

20

Confidence among consumers and producers have picked up recently

Source: CEIC

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer confidence indexPresent SituationExpectationsOptimism level

95

100

105

110

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Business Tendency Index

Perkembangan APBN: Menunggu akselerasi belanja pemerintah

A. PENDAPATAN NEGARA 1.761,6 50,5 2,9 1.822,5 51,7 2,8

I. PENDAPATAN DALAM NEGERI 1.758,3 50,5 2,9 1.820,5 51,7 2,81. Penerimaan Perpajakan 1.489,3 47,4 3,2 1.546,7 46,4 3,0

2. Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak 269,1 3,1 1,1 273,8 5,3 1,9

II. PENERIMAAN HIBAH 3,3 0,0 0,0 2,0 0,0 1,8

B.BELANJA NEGARA 1.984,1 55,6 2,8 2.095,7 65,9 3,1I. BELANJA PEMERINTAH PUSAT 1.319,5 26,2 2,0 1.325,6 29,6 2,2

1. Belanja K/L 795,5 10,0 1,3 784,1 9,2 1,2

2. Belanja non K/L 524,1 16,3 3,1 541,4 20,4 3,8

II. TRANSFER KE DAERAH DAN DANA DESA 664,6 29,3 4,4 770,2 36,3 4,71. Transfer ke Daerah 643,8 29,3 4,6 723,2 36,3 5,02. Dana Desa 20,8 0,0 0,0 47,0 0,0 0,0

C.KESEIMBANGAN PRIMER (66,8) 4,9 (7,4) (88,2) (1,0) 1,1D.SURPLUS/ (DEFISIT) ANGGARAN (A - B) (222,5) (5,1) 2,3 (273,2) (14,2) 5,2

% Surplus/ (Defisit) Terhadap PDB (1,90) (0,04) (2,15) (0,11)

E. PEMBIAYAAN ANGGARAN (I + II) 222,5 13,3 6,0 273,2 55,6 20,3

I. PEMBIAYAAN DALAM NEGERI 242,5 14,5 6,0 272,8 56,7 20,8II. PEMBIAYAAN LUAR NEGERI (neto) (20,0) (1,2) 5,9 0,4 (1,2) (297,0)KELEBIHAN/(KEKURANGAN) PEMBIAYAAN ANGGARAN 0,0 8,3 0,0 41,3

2015 2016

APBN Realisasi s.d 15 Jan

% thd APBN

Realisasi s.d 15 Jan

% thd APBNPAPBNP

Uraian(trililun rupiah)

22

Postur Realisasi APBN 2016

Source: Materi Presentasi Kepala BKF Kementrian Keuangan

23

EDUCATION 28.3%

INFRASTRUCTURE 103.5%

ENERGY SUBSIDY 60.7%

HEALTH75.4%

Comparison between average allocation in 2015 - 2016 and 2011 - 2014

…realokasi perbaikan profil belanja pemerintah, didukung oleh modernisasi cara belanja secara online

Realokasi Belanja untuk Mendorong Pembangunan yang Lebih Produktif

Source: Materi Presentasi Kepala BKF Kementrian Keuangan

24

Postur Realisasi APBN 2016

1. Transfer ke Daerah 643,8 29,3 4,6 723,2 36,3 5,0a. Dana Perimbangan 521,8 29,3 5,6 700,4 36,3 5,2

1) Dana Transfer Umum 462,9 29,3 6,3 491,5 36,3 7,4a) Dana Bagi Hasil 110,1 0,0 0,0 106,1 4,3 4,0b) Dana Alokasi Umum 352,9 29,3 8,3 385,4 32,1 8,3

2) Dana Transfer Khusus 58,8 0,0 0,0 208,9 0,0 0,0b. Dana Insentif Daerah 1,7 0,0 0,0 5,0 0,0 0,0c. Dana Otonomi Khusus dan Dana Keistimewaan D.I.Y. 17,7 0,0 0,0 17,8 0,0 0,0d. Dana Transfer Lainnya 102,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

2. Dana Desa 20,8 0,0 0,0 47,0 0,0 0,0

664,6 29,3 4,4 770,2 36,3 4,7

APBN Realisasi s.d 15 Jan

% thd APBN

2015 2016

Realisasi s.d 15 Jan

% thd APBNP

TOTAL

APBNPTransfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa

(triliun rupiah)

Bagaimana dengan arah suku bunga?

26Source: CEIC

Indonesia’s real interest rate will likely remain competitive at 2%

Year end inflation is expected to pick up on manageable pace while average inflation is expected to go down

Kami perkirakan BI akan menurunkan suku bunga ke 6,5% di 2016Inflasi mungkin di kisaran 4% - 4,5%

0

4

8

12

16

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Inflation (%)

eop (%)

average (%)

1.12.4

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

BI rate and Inflation Real interest rate (%) Average inflation (%)Average BI rate

27Source: CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate

Jika global oil price masih di kisaran USD30 per barel maka ada ruang bagi pemerintah untuk menurunkan lagi harga BBM

28Source: CEIC, Bloomberg

Indonesia’s nominal and real interest rate will remain the top three among peers

The interest rate differential (BI rate – Fed Fund rate) is expected to remain in line at 600bps

Interest rate differential akan tetap menarik (asumsi BI rate 7.0% dan FFR menjadi 1% - 1.25%)

-2-10123456789

Jan-

10Ju

n-10

Nov-

10Ap

r-11

Sep-

11Fe

b-12

Jul-1

2De

c-12

May

-13

Oct

-13

Mar

-14

Aug-

14Ja

n-15

Jun-

15No

v-15

Apr-

16Se

p-16

BI rate vs Fed Fund Rateinverted FFRBI rateSpread BI rate - FFR

29Source: Bloomberg

Beberapa EM di downgrade menjadi faktor positif buat Indonesia

Oct-94 BB Feb-06 BB- May-02 BB- Mar-98 B-May-00 BB+ Jun-06 BB May-03 BB+ Aug-02 BJun-00 BBB- May-07 BB+ Nov-04 BBB- Nov-03 B+

May-03 BBB May-08 BBB- Aug-05 BBB Jan-05 BB-Aug-05 BBB+ Apr-11 BBB Jul-06 BBB+ Feb-08 BBJan-13 BBB Oct-15 BBB- Feb-09 BBB Jan-10 BB+Dec-15 BBB- Dec-15 BB+ Jan-15 BBB- Dec-11 BBB-

Fitch ratingSouth Africa Brazil Russia Indonesia

Indonesia’s CDS is lower compared to peer countries… …whereas Indonesia’s credit rating remains solid amid rating downgrade on Brazil, Russia, and South Africa

last year

Apa saja resiko di depan?

30

The Fed increases its rate > 1.25%

China’s economic growth experiences hard landing

(growth < 6%)

A big shortfall on government revenue

Macroeconomic forecasts

31

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

Real GDP (%, yoy) 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.7 * 5.0 5.4

Rp/US$ (avg) 9,380 10,452 11,878 13,458 14,150 13,950

Rp/US$ (eop) 9,670 12,189 12,440 13,795 14,300 13,700

BI rate (%, eop) 5.80 7.50 7.80 7.50 7.00 6.75CPI inflation (%, yoy, eop) 3.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 5.0 5.0

CAD (% of GDP) -2.8 -3.2 -3 -2.0 * -2.4 -2.8

Source: CEIC, Mandiri Group estimate

* The figures will be announced Feb16

32

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