Top Banner
1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market and its characteristics Darwin explains it rather well… John Meyer – Managing Director / Metals & Mining Analyst No1. Extel rated mining analyst for smaller UK listed companies, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006. No1. Extel rated analyst for all UK smaller companies in 2006 by fund managers. Ex: SocGen, Goldman Sachs, Montagu Mining finance, T Hoare & Co., Numis Securities.
31

1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

Dec 21, 2015

Download

Documents

Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

1

How to make the market work for you? – And other observations

The evolution of the City

Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market and its characteristics

Darwin explains it rather well…

John Meyer – Managing Director / Metals & Mining Analyst

No1. Extel rated mining analyst for smaller UK listed companies, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006.

No1. Extel rated analyst for all UK smaller companies in 2006 by fund managers.

Ex: SocGen, Goldman Sachs, Montagu Mining finance, T Hoare & Co., Numis Securities.

Page 2: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

2

Disclaimer

DISCLAIMER – NON – INDEPENDENT RESEARCH

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research.  This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note has been issued by Fairfax I.S. PLC in order to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete.  Fairfax I.S. PLC is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.

No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information, representations, estimates or opinions contained in this note, and no liability is accepted for any such information, representation, estimate or opinion.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This [note] is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

In some cases, this research may have been sent to you by a party other than Fairfax I.S. PLC and, if so, the contents may have been altered from the original, or comments may have been added, which may not be the opinions of Fairfax I.S. PLC.  In these cases Fairfax I.S. PLC is not responsible for this amended research.

The investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors.  Investors should make their own investment decisions based upon their own financial objectives and financial resources and it should be noted that investment involves risk.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and an investor may not get back the amount originally invested.  Where investment is made in currencies other than the base currency of the investment, movements in exchange rates will have an effect on the value, either favorable or unfavorable.

Fairfax I.S. PLC is a company registered in England and Wales with company number 5496355 and whose registered office address is 7, Queen Street, Mayfair, London W1J 5PB. Fairfax I.S. PLC is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority whose address is 25, The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

Any persons or organisations mentioned in this presentation are entirely fictional and bear no relation to any real people or organisations in the modern era

Page 3: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

3

The city is a jungle

On the surface it looks like a nice friendly place…

But under the foliage, its wild, dangerous and a constant battle to survive

(Actually it’s a $1 billion forest according to a recent BBC documentary on the rainforest of Kenya)

Page 4: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

4

Beneath the surface its full of hungry, dangerous predators.

Some might look a bit “Slow” but appearances can be deceiving…

Page 5: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

5

Some of the slow looking predators can move surprisingly fast

Page 6: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

6

Exploration companies are like Wildebeest,

Page 7: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

7

There are a few of them and when the ground is fertile you can get caught in the stampede

You don’t have to follow the heard but you do want to get ahead of the stampeed

Page 8: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

8

The vast plain is your market: The grass that covers the plain your potential investors

So where are you in the food chain?

Investors are at the foot of that chain and are liable to sway with the prevailing wind

Page 9: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

9

These guys control the market

Traders, Sales, Corporate financiers and Analysts – Definitely in that order!

(Some corporate financiers always think they at the top of the food chain!)

Page 10: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

10

The trader has the power to execute….

It is definitely a good idea to have him on your side

Page 11: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

11

Sales are an early form of caveman

Hunter gatherers, up early to catch their prey and fill orders to feed the tribe…

but they do need to be told what spear or club to use!

Page 12: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

12

Analysts are like gods

Their wisdom is indisputable but they are sometimes up in the clouds

Page 13: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

13

The migratory Journey a growing company has to take is fraught with danger

Page 14: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

14

Predators lie in wait where least expected…

Page 15: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

15

Have you met a corporate raider before?

Page 16: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

16

Sometimes they take one down

Page 17: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

17

The lucky ones get away!

Page 18: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

18

Look out for the vultures

Short sellers

Insider traders

Vulture funds

Page 19: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

19

Majors do sometimes take out a mid-cap

Page 20: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

20

In the lean times, when the table is bare, all members of the food chain suffer

Page 21: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

21

Salesmen are normally offered for sacrifice at this point in time

Page 22: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

22

Investor Relations are busy tweeting but sometimes forget the dangers of the market place

Page 23: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

23

Its hard pushing this stuff uphill

Must be a PR beetle

Page 24: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

24

Its not an easy life being a corporate financier

Page 25: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

25

Some companies try to act bigger than they really are

Page 26: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

26

Lehman Brothers torched the financial planes

Recovery has grown from the ashes but which broker will set fire to the new growth

Page 27: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

27

Don’t be a Dodo

Page 28: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

28

Make sure you wear the right camouflage and come prepared for the weather

Make sure you are ready to tell your story. Be prepared to climb the financial ladder

Page 29: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

29

Make the ecosystem work for you?

befriend a human who introduces you to the tree of financial life

make sure you find a good watering hole

Page 30: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

30

10 Commandments of the city

1. Honour your investors so they continue to support you

2. Don’t lie or exaggerate ‘beyond reason’

3. Try not to miss your targets

4. You shall not commit closeology

5. You shall not take the name of your broker in vain

6. Remember the weekend - it is time off for brokers

7. You shall not divert funds into non-core ideas

8. You shall not rubbish your competitors

9. You shall not steal your broker’s analysts

10. If you have a beard, shave it off!

Ps Analysts are gods!

Page 31: 1 How to make the market work for you? – And other observations The evolution of the City Nature gives us all the parallels we need to assess the market.

31

If a London Taxi driver tells you to buy a mining stock its time to sell

Make sure you have a good drink at the end of it all

You can CALL ME! On 0794 303 1001