1 -going beyond the spatial mismatch hypothesis John Östh Department of Social & Economic Geography @ Uppsala University, Sweden New measure for labor.

1

-going beyond the spatial mismatch hypothesis

John ÖsthDepartment of Social & Economic Geography @ Uppsala University, Sweden

New measure for labor market assessment

2

Accessibility measures are typically used to – Express proximity in general– Express the relationship between supply and

demand, as used in:• Spatial Mismatch hypothesis• Gender and class related hypotheses (HRH, etc)

– Assist localization decision

3

Measuring accessibility1) Outcome measures of accessibility

• Commuting time/distance

2) Potential measures of accessibility• Catchment area analysis (job housing

balance ratio, etc)

4

Principle behind outcome measures of accessibility–Distance/time commuted represent

individual’s accessibility– Poor accessibility (long commutes)

Problems using outcome measures of accessibility–Endogeniety –Only commuters can be used

5

Principle behind potential measures of accessibility

6

Measurement bias using potential models

7

Complex models of potential accessibility

)()(),...,()(),()(),( 21111 DfSfSfDfDfSfSfaccessi

8

The ELMO-model is…• Estimated Labor Market Outcome

• A doubly constrained measure of potential accessibility

• Four major benefits– Individual input - individual output– Comparison – Non-iterative– Multi-topological

9

ELMO topologies• A) Absolute Space (dichotomy)

• B) Relative Space (distance decay)

10

ELMO Step 1: A crude measure of accessibility

The labor suppliers’ potentialinterest in each unit of demand for labor available within the catchment area.

S = 5AD = 50Z = 0.1

11

ELMO step 2: Introducing competition for jobs

the relation between the local demand (D) for labor and thepotential labor supply (AZ) is expressed. The abbreviation DC represents demand when competition is accounted for.

D = 100AZ = 2DC = 50

12

ELMO step 3: Accessibility to competition adjusted jobs

The (aggregated) competed for jobs (ADC) are related to the local suppliers’ potential interest in the demand available within the catchment-area (Z).

ADC = 100Z = 0.1EE = 10

13

ELMO step 3: Accessibility to competition adjusted jobs

14

Example of ELMO-output

15

The future of ELMO• Funding to develop an “easy to use”

program (accessibility/localization)

• Developing ELMO-topologies

• Period 2007-2009

16

THE END

17