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1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012
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1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

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Page 1: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

1global investment management

Harmony update

James Klempster, CFA

May 2012

Page 2: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

2 global investment management

1. Market update

Page 3: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

3 global investment management

Asset class returns 2011 – local currency terms

8.5% 8.2%7.2%

5.0%

-5.5%-6.9%

-12.7%-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Gold Investment grade

fixed income

Global Government

bonds

High yield Global developed marketequities

Commodities Global emerging marketequities

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

Page 4: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

4 global investment management

Global equities back to 2008 levels

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Nov 07

Jan 08

Mar 08

May 08

Jul 08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

Jul 09

Sep 09

Nov 09

Jan 10

Mar 10

May 10

Jul 10

Sep 10

Nov 10

Jan 11

Mar 11

May 11

Jul 11

Sep 11

Nov 11

Jan 12

Mar 12

Per

form

ance

reba

sed

to10

0

MSCI Daily TR Net World USD MSCI Daily TR Net Emerging Markets USD

Page 5: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

5 global investment management

Asset class returns YTD 2012 – local currency terms

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

9.8%

9.4%

7.4%

6.3%

4.4%

3.4%

0.4% 0.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Global developed

marketequities

Global emerging marketsequities

Convertibles High yield Loans Investment grade

fixed income

Global Government

bonds

Cash

Total return by asset class (Year to 27th April 2012)

Page 6: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

6 global investment management

Sector returns since 19 December 2011

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

21.2%20.1%

17.2%

14.0% 13.7%

9.8% 9.6%

8.1%

6.8%

2.7%2.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Consumer Discretionary

IT Financials MSCI World Industrials Materials Health Care Consumer Staples

Energy Utilities Telecoms

Page 7: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

7 global investment management

US 10 year yields versus equities

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

Ind

ex le

vel

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12

Yie

ld (%

)

US 10 year government yield MSCI World USD

Page 8: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

8 global investment management

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

May 62

May 64

May 66

May 68

May 70

May 72

May 74

May 76

May 78

May 80

May 82

May 84

May 86

May 88

May 90

May 92

May 94

May 96

May 98

May 00

May 02

May 04

May 06

May 08

May 10

May 12

Yie

ld

10 year Treasury yields at 50 year lows

US 10 year Treasury yields since 1962

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

2%

Page 9: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

9 global investment management

US data now broadly in line with consensus

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Jun 08 Oct 08 Feb 09 Jun 09 Oct 09 Feb 10 Jun 10 Oct 10 Feb 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Jun 12

Z-s

core

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (US)

Negative surprises

Positive surprises

Page 10: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

10 global investment management

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12

Fo

reca

st G

DP

Ch

ange

Yo

Y %

US GDP Economic Forecast

GDP’s early glimmer of hope

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

Consensus US GDP growth (2012)

?

Page 11: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

11 global investment management

But US expected to embark on a strong dose of austerity next year…

Source: IMF May 2012

Austerity plans (change in primary deficit)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Greece US Portugal Japan UK Italy France Spain Germany

% G

DP

2011-2012 2012-2013

Page 12: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

12 global investment management

Expectations for Europe may have bottomed

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

Consensus EU GDP growth (2012)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12

Fo

reca

st G

DP

Ch

ange

Yo

Y %

Page 13: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

13 global investment management

10 year government bond spreads over Bunds

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11

Sp

read

(bas

is p

oint

s)

Italy France Greece Spain Ireland

Page 14: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

14 global investment management

Systematic risk has re-emerged

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

UPDATE

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Dec 96 Dec 97 Dec 98 Dec 99 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12

Yie

ld %

German 10 year Italian 10 year

German versus Italian bond yields

Page 15: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

15 global investment management

Loss of competitiveness in the periphery

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Dec 99 Jun 01 Dec 02 Jun 04 Dec 05 Jun 07 Dec 08 Jun 10 Dec 11 Jun 13

Ind

ex le

vel r

ebas

ed to

100

Spain Italy Greece Portugal France Ireland Germany

Page 16: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

16 global investment management

Divergent trends in unemployment

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(%)

Spain Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Germany France

Page 17: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

17 global investment management

Mario Draghi

“We see no stigma attached to the use of central banking credit provisions; our facilities are there

to be used”

Page 18: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

18 global investment management

EU base rate

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12

Yie

ld (%

)

ECB Main Refinancing Rate

Mario Draghi’s term starts as President of

the ECB

Page 19: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

19 global investment management

Ease of doing business...

Source: 2011 World Bank data, May 2012

USUK

IrelandCanada

GermanyJapanFrance

PortugalSpainItaly

ChinaGreeceRussiaBrazilIndia

Easiest

Hardest

Page 20: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

20 global investment management

Time to start a business in days....

Source: 2011 World Bank data ,May 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Brazil Italy China Russian Federation

India Spain Japan Germany Ireland United Kingdom

Greece France United States

Canada Portugal

Day

s

Page 21: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

21 global investment management

Total tax rate (% of commercial profits)...

Source: 2011 World Bank data, May 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Italy Brazil France China India Japan Russian Federation

Germany United States

Greece Portugal Spain United Kingdom

Canada Ireland

%

Page 22: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

22 global investment management

Ease of doing business...

Source: 2011 World Bank data, IMF May 2012

US Canada

Ireland

Japan

Germany

France

UKItaly

Spain

Greece

Portugal

Brazil

Russia

China

India

y = -298.53x + 47845R² = 0.741

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

GD

P p

er c

apita

(US

$)

Ease of doing business , rank

Page 23: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

23 global investment management

Chinese inflation

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12

Yie

ld (%

)

China CPI YoY

Page 24: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

24 global investment management

This core resilience may explain why inflation hasn’t fallen as sharply as expected

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Yo

Y c

han

ge

World Food Price (CNY) CPI

Chinese CPI and world food price (CNY)

Page 25: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

25 global investment management

Export sector still fairly soft

Source: MGIM, May 2012

Chinese global exports (Real $) (Deseasonalised)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Dec 00

Aug 01

Apr 02

Dec 02

Aug 03

Apr 04

Dec 04

Aug 05

Apr 06

Dec 06

Aug 07

Apr 08

Dec 08

Aug 09

Apr 10

Dec 10

Aug 11

Apr 12

Page 26: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

26 global investment management

Credit tighter than during Lehmans

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

Chinese Money Supply

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12

Mo

ney

Sup

ply

Gro

wth

%

M1 YoY M2 YoY

Page 27: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

27 global investment management

Monetary policy

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Oct 07 Apr 08 Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12

China 1 Year Best Lending Rate Brazil Selic Target Rate Reserve Bank of India REPO Cut China Required Deposit Reserve

Inte

rest

rat

e (%

)

Page 28: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

28 global investment management

Inexorable rises can fall flat

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Japan share of world GDP in USD

Source: Bloomberg,April2012

Page 29: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

29 global investment management

Are shareholder and owner interests aligned?

Free float as a percentage of market cap

29%

China (SHCOMP)

56%

Emerging Markets (MXEF)

88%

Developed Markets (MXWO)

96%

US (SPX)

Source: Bloomberg,April2012

Page 30: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

30 global investment management

Poor correlation between stock markets and GDP

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

US % stock market/ % GDP

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1976 1978 1979 1980 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011

Rolling 30 year correlation: US GDP and S&P returns

Discrete annual US GDP and S&P returns

Rat

ioC

orre

latio

n

Source: Bloomberg,April2012

Page 31: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

31 global investment management

Population: sheer weight of numbers is not enough

January 2012

% World population % World GDP

United StatesSub-Saharan Africa

11.9%

4.5%

2.4%

19.5%

0

Page 32: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

32 global investment management

Interdependent

January 2012

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

11000000

12000000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Dec 00

Jun 01

Dec 01

Jun 02

Dec 02

Jun 03

Dec 03

Jun 04

Dec 04

Jun 05

Dec 05

Jun 06

Dec 06

Jun 07

Dec 07

Jun 08

Dec 08

Jun 09

Dec 09

Jun 10

Dec 10

Jun 11

Dec 11

Mill

ion

$

US Consumer Spending vs. Chinese Exports to the US

US Consumer Spending Chinese Exports to the US

Page 33: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

33 global investment management

Interdependent

January 2012

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US

D, 0

00's

bill

ions

US twin deficit

Chinese Reserves

Page 34: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

34 global investment management

Equity market valuations

Source: Bloomberg, May 2012

Historic Price/Earnings Dividend yield10-year Government

bond yields

United States 13.3 2.1% 1.9%

Eurozone 9.2 5.3% 1.7%

United Kingdom 10.4 4.1% 2.1%

Germany 10.4 3.9% 1.7%

Switzerland 12.4 3.8% 0.7%

Japan 14.7 2.1% 0.9%

Hong Kong 10.7 3.7% 1.2%

Australia 12.9 4.8% 3.7%

Page 35: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

35 global investment management

Key themes for 2012

• ‘New normal’ is now the consensus• Global rebalancing set to continue for several years• Subdued GDP growth now widely expected• Eurozone sovereign debt remains a tail risk• Recent data suggests economic thawing in DM• Current deflationary environment will ultimately turn inflationary as

governments resort to the printing presses – but not yet• 2012 started strongly, remain positive but do not let expectations

become outlandish• Add to equity on bouts of weakness

• Diversification and dynamic asset allocation key to performance

Page 36: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

36 global investment management

2. Fund focus

Page 37: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

37 global investment management

Harmony Balanced fund strategic allocation

Holdings up to 30th March 2012

Global Equity10%

Local Equity30%

Global Bonds10%

Local Government Debt30%

Global Property10%

Cash10%

Page 38: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

38 global investment management

Harmony Growth fund strategic allocation

Holdings up to 30th March 2012

Global Equity15%

Local Equity50%

Global Bonds5%

Local Government Debt15%

Global Property10%

Cash5%

Page 39: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

39 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Balanced asset allocation

Source: MGIM, Allocations 30th March 2012

Equity26.0% Equity

22.0%

Equity31.0%

Equity33.1%

Equity40.3%

Equity41.3%

Equity40.4%

Equity40.0%

Fixed Income31.0% Fixed Income

34.0%

Fixed Income48.0% Fixed Income

40.0%

Fixed Income34.6%

Fixed Income31.3% Fixed Income

29.3%

Fixed Income40.0%

Alt. Investments24.0%

Alt. Investments25.0%

Alt. Investments6.0%

Alt. Investments3.9%

Alt. Investments2.5%

Property11.0%

Property4.0%

Property11.0%

Property9.5%

Property9.6%

Property10.8%

Property9.5%

Property10.0%

Cash8.0%

Cash15.0%

Cash4.0%

Cash13.5%

Cash13.0% Cash

16.6% Cash20.8%

Cash10.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Benchmark

Page 40: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

40 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Balanced currency allocation

Allocations as of 30th March 2012

USD79.0%

USD92.0%

USD71.0%

USD78.9%

USD70.5%

USD77.8%

USD82.3%

USD82.8%

EUR7.0%

EUR1.0%

EUR9.0%

EUR7.2%

EUR9.1%

EUR7.1%

EUR5.6%

EUR6.3%

GBP 1.0%

GBP 4.0%

GBP 3.0%

GBP 3.0%

GBP 5.4%

GBP 3.2%GBP 2.4%

GBP 3.1%JPY 5.0%

JPY 7.0%

JPY 4.4%

JPY 4.4%JPY 2.3%

JPY 1.8%JPY 3.2%

Other 8.0%Other 3.0%

Other 10.0%Other 6.4%

Other 10.6% Other 9.6% Other 7.9%Other 4.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Benchmark

Source: Asset allocations as of 30th March 2012

Page 41: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

41 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Balanced performance

Source: Lipper, Performance as of end of April 2012

1 month YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*

Harmony US Dollar Balanced Peer Rank 12/19 10/19 7/19 8/17 4/16 9/13 3/12 2/12 4/12

Fund Performance -0.2% 5.6% -1.5% 5.6% 20.0% -27.2% 6.7% 13.2% 4.7%

Peer Max 0.8% 8.5% 1.6% 12.2% 25.2% -6.7% 7.8% 13.5% 14.2%

Peer Min -3.4% -1.7% -18.8% -2.6% -0.7% -36.2% 2.1% 5.0% 0.8%

Peer Median -0.0% 5.6% -3.7% 5.5% 15.9% -21.2% 5.1% 8.8% 3.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 month YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*

Har

mo

ny

fun

d p

erce

ntag

e ra

nk

Page 42: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

42 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Balanced managed performance

Source: Lipper, Bloomberg. Holdings as off end of April

Returns in USD YTD 6 months 12 months

Equity

Artisan Global Value 6.4% 6.1% 2.6%

RMB - Global Equity Fund 6.9% 8.3% -5.2%

Morgan Stanley Global Brands Fund 10.6% 9.1% 8.9%

BlackRock US Index Fund 7.0% 12.6% 4.8%

HEPTAGON Yacktman US Equity I 2.9% 6.0% 3.2%

Wells Fargo US All Cap Growth 19.19% 15.7% 10.0%

RMB - Global Emerging markets Fund -2.4% -2.2% -20.4%

Fixed Income

Old Mutual Dublin Global Bond I Acc USD 0.4% -1.2% 1.5%

RWC Funds - RWC Global Convertibles Fund 1.6% 2.5% -2.8%

BlackRock - US Dollar High Yield Bond Fund 2.9% 6.1% 3.7%

BlackRock- US Corporate Bond Index Fund 1.2% 3.1% 7.6%

iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3 0.0% 0.1% 1.0%

iShares USD Treasury Bond 7-10 -0.1% 3.6% 14.8%

Property

Cohen & Steers Global Real Estate USD 5.6% 8.6% -4.4%

Page 43: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

43 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Growth asset allocation

Source; MGIM, Allocations as of 30th March 2012

Equity49.0%

Equity35.0%

Equity51.0%

Equity53.3% Equity

47.5%

Equity65.3%

Equity68.7% Equity

65.0%

Fixed Income15.0%

Fixed Income28.0%

Fixed Income27.0%

Fixed Income25.2%

Fixed Income13.0%

Fixed Income17.4%

Fixed Income16.9% Fixed Income

20.0%

Alt. Investments25.0% Alt. Investments

24.0%

Alt. Investments7.0%

Alt. Investments7.2%

Alt. Investments3.2%

Property9.0%

Property4.0%

Property13.0%

Property9.9%

Property5.9%

Property10.3%

Property9.9%

Property10.0%

Cash2.0%

Cash9.0%

Cash2.0% Cash

4.4%

Cash30.4%

Cash7.0%

Cash4.5%

Cash5.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Benchmark

Page 44: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

44 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Growth currency allocation

Source: Asset allocations as of 30th March 2012

USD80.0%

USD88.0%

USD69.0% USD

64.2%

USD76.2%

USD68.6%

USD72.0%

USD76.8%

EUR 10.0%

EUR 1.0%

EUR 9.0%

EUR 10.6%

EUR 7.1%

EUR 9.6%

EUR 9.3%

EUR 8.9%

GBP 2.0%GBP 7.0%

GBP 5.0%GBP 6.5%

GBP 4.4%

GBP 4.8%

GBP 4.7%

GBP 4.4%

JPY 4.0%

JPY 5.0%JPY 5.1%

JPY 3.2%

JPY 3.4%

JPY 3.3%

JPY 4.6%

Other 4.0% Other 4.0%

Other 12.0% Other 13.7%Other 9.1%

Other 13.6%Other 10.7%

Other 5.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Benchmark

Page 45: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

45 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Growth performance

Source: Lipper, Performance as of end of April 2012

1 month YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*

Harmony US Dollar Growth Peer Rank 12/19 4/19 3/19 6/17 3/16 11/13 3/12 1/12 4/12

Fund Performance -0.3% 8.0% -0.1% 7.8% 23.0% -30.1% 6.5% 15.2% 6.3%

Peer Max 0.8% 8.5% 1.6% 12.2% 25.2% -6.7% 7.8% 15.2% 14.2%

Peer Min -3.4% -1.7% -18.8% -2.6% -0.7% -36.2% 2.1% 5.0% 0.8%

Peer Median -0.0% 5.7% -3.7% 5.5% 15.9% -21.2% 5.1% 8.8% 3.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 month YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*

Har

mo

ny

fun

d p

erce

ntag

e ra

nk

Page 46: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

46 global investment management

Harmony US Dollar Growth manager performance

Source: Lipper, Bloomberg. Holdings as off end of April

Returns in USD YTD 6 months 12 months

Equity

Artisan Global Value 6.4% 6.1% 2.6%

RMB - Global Equity Fund 6.9% 8.3% -5.2%

Morgan Stanley Global Brands Fund 10.6% 9.1% 8.9%

BlackRock US Index Fund 7.0% 12.6% 4.8%

HEPTAGON Yacktman US Equity I 2.9% 6.0% 3.2%

Wells Fargo US All Cap Growth 19.2% 15.7% 10.0%

RMB - Global Emerging markets Fund -2.4% -2.2% -20.4%

Fixed Income

Old Mutual Dublin Global Bond I Acc USD 0.4% -1.2% 1.5%

RWC Funds - RWC Global Convertibles Fund 1.6% 2.5% -2.8%

BlackRock - US Dollar High Yield Bond Fund 2.9% 2.4% 3.7%

BlackRock - US Corporate Bond Index Fund 1.2% 3.1% 7.6%

Property

Cohen & Steers Global Real Estate USD 5.6% 8.6% -4.4%

Page 47: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

47 global investment management

Harmony funds protecting capital in 2007/08

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Harmony Asian Growth MSCI AC Asia Ex Japan Index (NR) MSCI World (NR)

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Harmony Sterling Growth FTSE 100 Index (TR) MSCI World (NR)

Per

form

ance

reb

ased

to

100

Per

form

ance

reb

ased

to

100

Source: Lipper Hindsight, May 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Page 48: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

48 global investment management

…and again in 2011’s weak markets

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

Harmony Asian Growth MSCI AC Asia Ex Japan Index (NR) MSCI World (NR)

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

Harmony Asian Balanced MSCI AC Asia Ex Japan Index (NR) MSCI World (NR)

Per

form

ance

reb

ased

to

100

Per

form

ance

reb

ased

to

100

Source: Lipper Hindsight, May 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Page 49: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

49 global investment management

Harmony performance vs. peers

Source: Lipper, returns to end of April 2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Harmony US Dollar Balanced

Harmony US Dollar Growth

Harmony AUD Growth

Harmony Sterling Balanced

Harmony Sterling Growth

Harmony Asian Balanced

Harmony Asian Growth

Harmony Euro Balanced

Average

Har

mo

ny

fun

d p

erce

ntag

e ra

nk

Page 50: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

50 global investment management

Questions

Page 51: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

51 global investment management

Disclaimer

Momentum Global Investment Management is the trading name for Momentum Global Investment Management Limited. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to

any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and

addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this document, and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local

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Prospective investors should inform themselves and if need be take appropriate advice regarding applicable legal, taxation and exchange control regulations in countries of their

citizenship, residence or domicile which may be relevant to the acquisition, holding, transfer, redemption or disposal of any investments herein solicited.

 

Any opinions expressed herein are those at the date this material is issued. Data, models and other statistics are sourced from our own records, unless otherwise stated herein. We

believe that the information contained is from reliable sources, but we do not guarantee the relevance, accuracy or completeness thereof. Unless otherwise provided under UK law,

Momentum Global Investment Management does not accept liability for irrelevant, inaccurate or incomplete information contained, or for the correctness of opinions expressed.

We caution that the value of investments in discretionary accounts, and the income derived, may fluctuate and it is possible that an investor may incur losses, including a loss of the

principal invested. Past performance is not generally indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are

invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments.

 

Our investment mandates in alternative strategies and hedge funds permit us to invest in unregulated funds that may be highly volatile. Although alternative strategies funds will seek

to follow a wide diversification policy, these funds may be subject to sudden and/or large falls in value. The illiquid nature of the underlying funds is such that alternative strategies

funds deal infrequently and require longer notice periods for redemptions. These Investments are therefore not readily realisable. If an alternative strategies fund fails to perform, it

may not be possible to realise the investment without further loss in value. These unregulated funds may engage in the short selling of securities or may use a greater degree of

gearing than is permitted for regulated funds (including the ability to borrow for a leverage strategy). A relatively small price movement may result in a disproportionately large

movement in the investment value. The purpose of gearing is to achieve higher returns associated with larger investment exposures, but has concomitant exposure to loss if positive

performance is not achieved. Reliable information about the value of an investment in an alternative strategies fund may not be available (other than at the fund’s infrequent valuation

points).

 

Under our multi-management arrangements, we selectively appoint underlying sub-investment managers and funds to actively manage underlying asset holdings in the pursuit of

achieving mandated performance objectives. Annual investment management fees are payable both to the multimanager and the manager of the underlying assets at rates

contained in the offering documents of the relevant portfolios (and may involve performance fees where expressly indicated therein).

 

Momentum Global Investment Management Limited (Company Registration No. 3733094) registered office at 20 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0BG.

 

Momentum Global Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom, and is an authorised Financial Services

Provider pursuant to the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002 in South Africa.

 

© Momentum Global Investment Management Limited 2012

Page 52: 1 global investment management Harmony update James Klempster, CFA May 2012.

52 global investment management

Contact: Lucy RichardsonMarketing ManagerMomentum Global Investment Management [email protected]: +44 207 939 1725www.momentumgim.com