1 Gia Hoa Dan So - PTCT Tan

8/12/2019 1 Gia Hoa Dan So - PTCT Tan

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POPULATION AGING IN VIET NAM

NGUYEN VAN TANDeputy Director General, General Office for Population-Family Planning

Ministry of Health


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CONTENTS

1. World trend of Aging population2. Population Aging in Vietnam:

Current Situation

Assessment Recommendations and policy

orientations


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Increasing population aging

PopulationAgingis a globalissues, having impacts to allnations

Population Aging appearedin XX century and willcontinue to increase in theXXI century

2009-2050: double: 11% =>22% (60+)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 2009 2050

8 11

22%60+

Population 60+ in the world1950-2050

Sour ce: UN, Worl d population ageing 2009


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% of elderly people (65+)in the world, 2050

Sources: Population Reference Bureau, Toshiko Kaneda A Critical Window for Policymaking on Population Aging in Developing Countries


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CURRENT SITUATION OFPOPULATION AGING INVIETNAM

Population Aging in Vietnam


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Source: GSOs. Pop census and Housing 1979, 1989. 1999, 2009 and Survey on Population FP Change , 2011

In 3 decades (1979-2009)

increased 0.036 points/year (65+)

2009-2012 increased 0.18point/year

VIET NAM IS IN THE PERIOD OFPOPULATION AGING

4.7 5.8

6.4

7.1

2009-2012 2012-20201979-1989

65+(%)

1999

4.7

Trend of 65+ population ratio,VietNam 1979-2020

In 2011:Viet Nam entered

the Period ofPopulation Aging

Year Total

population(mil)

60+

(mil)

(%) 65+

(%)

1979 53,74 3,71 6,9 4,7

1989 64,38 4,64 7,2 4,7

1999 76,33 6,19 8,1 5,8

2009 85,84 7,45 8.68 6,4

2010 86,75 8,15 9,4 6,8

2011 87,61 8,65 9,9 7,0


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Projection of Population ratio by age group, Viet Nam 2009-2049

Source: GSOs, Vietnam Population Pr ojection 2009-2049; Sur vey on Pop-FP Change 1/4/2012


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049

Ttrngdns(%

)

65+

15-64

0-14

2011:Population

Aging

0-14: Deceasegradually Golden /BonusPopulation 65+: continue to

increase


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Projection of 65+ population ratio, Viet Nam 2009-2049

Source: GSOs, Vi etnam Populati on projection 2009-2049



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Life expectancy of population group 60+In Viet Nam and some countries, regions, 2010

Source: UN , Populati on Ageing and Development 2012

LIFE EXPECTANCY 60+

Life expectancy of populationgroup 60+ is very high andincreasing

17.75

18

19.5

20

21.5

22

23

23.5

23.5

23.5

24

24.5

24.5

26

Cc nc ang PT

Nga

Trung Quc

Th gii

Vit Nam

Chu u

Cc nc PT

M

Anh

Hn Quc

Canada

Php

Australia

Nht Bn

Viet Nam: 21,5Same as developed

countries


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Elderly population in Viet Nam ( % of total population) 1979-2049

Elderly people in Viet Nam increasing in the oldestgroup

Average life expectancy in South Korea: 80.5, of which 65+ is 11% of total population but thenumber of people of over 100 years old is 1.836 persons (0,0037% of total population).

Average life expectancy in Viet Nam: 72.8 (2009), of which 65+ is 6.6% of total population but thenumber of people over 100 years old is 7.200 persons ( 0,0084% of total population).

Therefore, although the percentage of elderly people and the average life expectancy of Vietnam islower than South Korea but the percentage of people over 100 years old in Vietnam is 2,2 times as

Agegroup

1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049

60-64 2.28 2.40 2.31 2.26 4.29 5.28 5.80 7.04

65-69 1.90 1.90 2.20 1.81 2.78 4.56 5.21 6.14

70-74 1.34 1.40 1.58 1.65 1.67 3.36 4.30 4.89

75-79 0.90 0.80 1.09 1.40 1.16 1.91 3.28 3.87

80+ 0.54 0.70 0.93 1.47 1.48 1.55 2.78 4.16


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TOTAL FERTILITY RATEDECREASE

Source: GSOs, Population Census and Housing 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009, Annual Surveys on Pop-FP Change

Total Fertility Rate, Viet Nam, 1960-2011

6.3

4.8

3.8

2.32.28 2.28 2.11

2.092.07 2.08 2.03 2.00 1.99

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1960 1979 1989 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fertility replacement rate

TFR


14/29Source: GSOs, Populati on and Housing Sur veys 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009

MORTALITY RATE DECREASING

o Mortality Rate: Decreasing: CDR, IMR, MMR Decreasingo IMR decreasing very fast

Progress in Medical Science, Hygiene, Nutrition

Improved socio-economical conditions

36

42.3

36.7

16

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1979 1989 1999 2009

IMR (%o)

Infant mortality rate of under 1 year old through Pop Censuses (%o)


15/29Source: UNFPA, State of world population, 2008, WHO, World Health Statistic 2012

VIETNAM EXPECTION OF BEING ALIVEAT BIRTH IS INCREASING

74.2

74.4

75.8

77.2

78.6

78.7

80.1

80.4

81.1

84.1

ng Timor

Cambodia

Lo

Thi Lan

Indonesia

Philippines

Malaysia

Vit Nam

Brunei

Singapore

Projection of Life Expectancy in South East Asian countries 2050

Viet Nam, 2010: 73Male: 71, Female: 75

40

73

48

69

1960 2010

Life Expectancy in Vietnam andin the World 1960-2010

Vit Nam Th gii


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SOME OTHERCHARACTERISTICS OF ELDERLY

PEOPLE IN VIETNAM



17/29Source: GSOs, 2009 Populati on and Housing Census, National Survey on Elderl y People 2011

Vietnam elderly people living majorly in ruralareas, being farmers and doing agricultural work

Over 70% of elderly people have to earn theirliving with support from their descendentsand family members (only over 25,5% live by

pension or social allowances)

Agricultural land is narrowing, difficulty inproduction due to natural disaster anddiseases lead to low income for farmers ingeneral and elderly people in particular

NorthMidland

andmountainous region

12%

Red RiverDelta28%

North

CentralandCentralCoast

Region25%

Central

Highland4%

South East12%

Mekongdelta19%

Elderly distribution by region

(% of country elderly people)

Region65+/ total population

(%)

Midland and mountainousareas in the North 6,0

Red River Delta 8,3North Central and Coastalareas in the Center 7,8

Central Highland 4,0

South East 4,7

Mekong Delta 6,1

Vi ld l l li i h h i


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Vietnamese elderly mostly live with their children or grandchildren

while family structure tends to change

Source: Vietnam National Committee for the Elderl y , Nati onal Survey on Vietnamese Elder ly people, 2011; Madrid 10 year Report , 2012

Vietnamese elderly mostly live with theirchildren and grandchildren

72,3% of elderly people live withtheir descendants while familysize tends to change from

traditional family to nuclearfamily.

Status of elderly people livewithout husband/wife is high,

while % of female elderly livingalone is 5.44 time more than maleelderly; Divorced and separatedelderly ins 2.2 times more thanmale (2009).

Living alone is a

disadvantage to elderlypeople as family is alwaysfundamental support forfamily members when

getting old .

With

descendants72%

Withhusband/

wife 15%

Alone10%

Other3%

% of people living with elderlypeople %

Eld l l i h ld l li i


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Different from Viet Nam, elderly people in the world living with husband/wife

Sourve: UNFPA, Ageing in the Twenty-fi rst centur y: A Celebration & A Chall enge, 2012

Elderly people in the world mostly livingwith husband/wife


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Difficulties in material life of Vietnamese elderly

Source: Vietnam National Committee of El derl y people , Madrid 10 years report 2012; Natinal Survey on the Elderl y 2011

DIFFICULTIY IN LIFE

Current elderly generation were bornand grew up during the war so they donot have opportunity for health care andaccumulation

70% of elderly do not have materialaccumulation

62,3%: Having difficulties, lacking.

Rural : 68%, Urban: 50%

27,6%: Think : economy is getting worse

18% sng trong h ngho

Tuicng cao ngho cng cao

Nngho hnNam

Nng thn ngho hnT.th

Over 30% living in permanent houses

Nearly 10% living in temperary houses


22/29Source: National survey on Vietnamese Elderl y People, 2011; Madrid 10 year Report , 2012

LIMITED HEALTH CONDITIONSHealth conditions of Vietnamese Elderly is limited

Although average life expectancy is high (73 year) theirburden of diseases is high for Vietnamese people (15.3year WHO, 2009);

Double disease burden (around 95% of the elderlyhave diseases, mostly chronic and non - transmitted

diseases) 27%: Difficulty in daily life, need support; mostly from

husband/wife and children. 60% female elderly helpmale while it is 30% vise versa

67,2%: Having weak and very weak health condition,

only 5%: Good. Percentage of weak female is higherthan male, rural is higher than urban

Percentage of elderly in rural areas in weak health orsuffering concussion in 12 months and being treated byhealth workers is low (13,1%) and is only half of those

in urban areas (23,45)

35%: Feel sad anddisappointed (at leastsome times)

22%: Feel lonely

33%: Do not share joyand sorrow with anybody


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VIETNAM STATE POLICY ON ELDERLYPEOPLE

S P t d St t li i th


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Vietnamese people have good tradition:Respect to parents, taking care ofgrandparents and respect the elderly

Constitution 1946, Support to Old and

disable citizens who can not work(Article14).

Several Agencies working on this issue

Association of the Elderly people, Care

Fund for the Elderly

Day for Vietnamese Elderly: 6/6

Source : National Assembly, Government of Vietnam www.na.gov.vn: www.chinhphu.vn

President Hochiminhreading the Declaration ofthe Independence of theVietnam Democracy and

Republic

Some Partys and States policies on theelderly



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OBSERVATIONS&

RECOMMENDATIONS FORPOLICY



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1. Increase of life expectancy is the greatest achievement of the human being

2. Peoples awareness and behavior still do not adjust to the aging society

3. Have not yet taken the advantage of elderly people in Vietnam

Some parts of the society still have biased thoughts that elderly people is a burden

Awareness and responsibility of some levels of Party, authority and agenciestowards the elderly people and Association of Elderly People is still limited(Conclusion No 305-TB/TW of the Central Party dated 03/2/2010)

Elderly people need to have opportunity to make contribution to the developmentof the country and share benefit

OBSERVATIONS

Percentage of the elderly understanding elderly rights is not high.50% know about their rights to enjoy allowance or life expectancy

appraisal ; Limited understanding of other rights


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4. Social security system do not meet the

needs of the elderly

5. Health care system do not meet theincreasing needs of the elderly

6. Changes in age distribution will affect

economy through changes in size andstructure of population in working age andstructure of individual consumption

7. Challenges in policy making and planning

OBSERVATIONS 30% of the elderly do not have

any kinds of health insurance

54,6% need treatment. Ruralis higher than urban

70% of the elderly have to payfor health care services, drugs(among those who are treated)

Treatment are mostly incentral or provincial , ordistrict hospitals

50% not affordable => Notreatment

More than 16% not satisfied

RECOMMENDATIONS AND ORIENTATION FOR


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RECOMMENDATIONS AND ORIENTATION FORPOLICY

1. A need of long term strategy to slow down the transition from populationaging to Aged population: Maintain appropriate fertility rate.

2. Bringing in to full play the advantages of the elderly

On capability, knowledge, expertise of the elderly;

Job opportunity appropriate to the elderly;

Bring into full play the outstanding and respected elderly in the family tobuild up resilient family, generations and community;

Especially the role of the elderly in ethnic minority community;

Promoting the role of the elderly in policy development, social criticism,

scientific research, teaching;


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Thank you very much!

! !...!

1 Gia Hoa Dan So - PTCT Tan

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