1 Deep uncertainty in energy policy: introduction to basic concepts Resilience and Risk management Energy System Structure Adaptive scenario backcasting.

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Deep uncertainty in energy policy: Deep uncertainty in energy policy: introduction to basic conceptsintroduction to basic concepts

• Resilience and Risk management

• Energy System Structure• Adaptive scenario backcasting

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Addressing riskAddressing risk2 basic ways to respond to risk:2 basic ways to respond to risk:• GambleGamble – bet nothing negative happens – bet nothing negative happens• AmeliorateAmeliorate – become resilient to risk – become resilient to risk

2 basic kinds of resilience:2 basic kinds of resilience:• Suppressive Suppressive - prevent/ remove risk effects- prevent/ remove risk effects {-: cost, {-: cost,

brittleness, disabling}brittleness, disabling}• AdaptiveAdaptive – adapt to preserve functionality {-: cost, – adapt to preserve functionality {-: cost,

+: suppleness, enabling}+: suppleness, enabling}– Both include, and require, appropriate Both include, and require, appropriate

organisationorganisation

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4 key propositions4 key propositions

• In a dynamic world primary sustainability = preservation of adaptive resilience

• So sustainable energy infrastructure supports synergistic ecological + societal adaptive resilience

• Resilience requires integrated adaptability across plant, sector, network and ecological levels

• Technological development has shown an important trend toward universal adaptability

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Scenario backcasting:Scenario backcasting:

CCS Coal

Large Thermal

FC

Natural Gas

GE

TransportStationary Energy

CA

Electricity

EM

Hydrogen

Fossil Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

TransportStationaryEnergy

Electricity

ICE

Today Tomorrow

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FUTUREPRESENT

FUTUREPRESENT

Forecasting/Forecasting/backcasting: backcasting: schematic methodschematic method

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Greater power of backcasting Greater power of backcasting optionsoptions

Backcasting is a more powerful tool than forecasting for Backcasting is a more powerful tool than forecasting for capturing policy options because capturing policy options because its off-trend, longer term, its off-trend, longer term, time-reversed perspectivetime-reversed perspective::

• allows consideration of intermediary actions that break trends, allows consideration of intermediary actions that break trends, • opens to decision many variables that are effectively fixed in opens to decision many variables that are effectively fixed in

the short term, and the short term, and • allows for self-reinforcement along pathways (e.g. allows for self-reinforcement along pathways (e.g.

technological learning) and for inter-pathway synergies (e.g. technological learning) and for inter-pathway synergies (e.g. solar boosting of coal-fired generation).solar boosting of coal-fired generation).

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Human Energy System Human Energy System FlowFlow

Resources

Primary Energy

Tertiary Energy

Human Energy System Flow

Extraction

SupplyDemand

Conversion from Fuel

Conversion to Fuel

Fuel interconversion,Transmission and Storage

Secondary Energy

Consumption of Energy Services

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Energy Media DiamondEnergy Media Diamond

50-80%

50-90%

80-95%

70-80%

99-100%

25-40%

99-100%

99-100%

80-90%

50-60%

Energy Media Transformation Pathway Efficiencies

50-90%

80-90%

70-90%

Electrical

Chemical

Thermal

Mechanical

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Options in transport designOptions in transport designHydrogenHydrocarbonsCompressed Air(Liquid, Gas)

(Electro-mechanicalDrive)(Gas expansion Motor)

Kinetic Energy

Electricity

TransportFigure 3: Transport Technology Design Structure

On Board Storage

Hydrocarbons (Solid)

Continuous Delivery

(Tank)Single Storage

On Board Storage

(Tank)Split Storage

(Battery)Single Storage

(Tender)Split Storage

Fixed Grid orOn-boardcapture (PVcell)

(Aerofoil)On-board Capture

Electricity Air MotionHydrogenHydrocarbonsCompressed Air(Liquid, Gas)

[No Storage] [No Storage]

Continuous Delivery

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Options for transport Options for transport fuelsfuels

Biomass

[Bio-engineeredPhotosynthesis]

Thermal

Hydrogen

Mechanical (Wind, Tide, Hydro)

[Photolysis] Photovoltaic

Secondary

[Emerging]

Primary

TransformationTertiary

Legend

Electro-mechanicalDrive

Gas expansion Motor

Kinetic Energy

Electricity

[Compressed Air]

Transport

Non-Carbon Thermal([Geothermal], Nuclear,[Solar Thermal])

Figure 4: Transport Services EnergyPathways

Hydrocarbons / Non- carbon Hydrogen Compound

[Electrolysis]

[Fuel Cell]

[BatteryStorage]

[Micro-Turbine]

[BiofuelSynthesis] Fossil Hydrocarbons

[Carbon Sequestration]

Mobility/Access

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Options for stationary Options for stationary energyenergy

Biomass

[Bio-engineeredPhotosynthesis]

Fossil Hydrocarbons[Carbon Sequestration]

Thermal

Hydrocarbons

Hydrogen

Mechanical [Non-Carbon Thermal]

Solar Photolysis Photovoltaic

Heat

Electro-mechanicalGas expansion

Motive Power

Electricity

Mechanical

Chemical EnergyEssential Electricity(Lighting, InformationProcessing, etc.)

Stationary Energy Services Pathways

[Electrolysis]

[Fuel Cell]

[BatteryStorage]

[BiofuelSynthesis]

Secondary

[Emerging]

Primary

Transformation

Tertiary

Legend

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Scenario ExerciseScenario Exercise

Land & Water

BM fuel BiomassFossil Oil

Hydrogen

Natural Gas Coal

Wind

GE Transport Stationary Energy

Electricity

ICE

Thermal

Local Thermal

Current Energy Pathway Current Energy Pathway StructureStructure

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Scenario exerciseScenario exercise

BM sugar

Battery Storage

Biosequestration

Land & WaterAgricultural Photosynthesis

CCS

BM oilBM wood

Industrial Photosynthesis

Fossil Oil

Diesel Alcohol Hydrogen

Natural Gas Coal

Photolysis

Wind & PV etc.

Solar Thermal

Electro-Magnetic

Gas Expansion

TransportStationaryEnergy

Compressed Air

Electricity

Fuel CellICE

Local Thermal

Legend: Fossil (Carbon Neutral with CSS), Carbon Neutral, Carbon Free.

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Scenario exerciseScenario exercise

Desalination

Land & Water

CCSBiomass

Fossil Oil

Hydrogen

Natural Gas Coal

Photolysis

Wind & PV

Thermal

EM GE Transport

StationaryEnergy

CA

Electricity

FCICE BEV

Local Thermal

Solar Thermal

Geothermal

Nuclear

Biosequestration

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Energy: Decision Energy: Decision StructureStructure

Energy Services

Resources

Stationary Fuel

Supply

Adaptability v Efficiency, Impost/ Subsidy

Demand Management

Role ofElectricity

TransportTechnology

TransportFuel

Mobility

Land and Water,Centralisation vDecentralisation

Energy Provision: Principle Decision Structure

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SatisfactoryEnd-states

Portfolio type I and type II errorsPortfolio type I and type II errors

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Adaptive strategy constructionAdaptive strategy construction

Adaptive strategies are constructed by • developing a portfolio of actual technologies (+ supporting

financial, skill, regulatory etc. arrangements), that • keeps open the real options of pursuing each scenario

within the suite of scenarios, that • represent the widest feasible class of the most satisfactory

scenarios for achieving all of a selected range of physically plausible and societally desirable end-states.

Given finite resources, the parameters ‘class width’, ‘scenario satisfaction level’ and ‘end-state range’ will need to be judiciously traded-off against one another.