1 Christian Faith in a World of Climate Change: Energy Security
and the need for Renewable Energy Castle Street Methodist Church 25
th October 2008 Keith Tovey: Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 CRed Carbon
Reduction Keith Tovey ( ) .. M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy
Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of
Environmental Sciences, UEA Slide 2 Background: the evidence of
Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical
Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community How
Churches can Respond to Climate Change Background: the evidence of
Climate Change 2 Slide 3 3 3 Changes in Temperature and Carbon
Dioxide Slide 4 4 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing
Occurrence of Flood Slide 5 5 Is Global Warming Man Made? Not
according to Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle!
Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years Slide
6 6 Last Ice Age Humans are forcing the system in a new way. CO 2
increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been
this high in more than half a million years. Last Interglacial Ice
ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earths orbital clock.
changes in the sunlight received). 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide
(ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 6 Long
Term Carbon Dioxide Record Slide 7 7 Source: Hadley Centre, The
Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man
made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920
and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates
and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 7 Slide 8 8 Is Global Warming
man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural
only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas
emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5
0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise (
o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 8 Slide 9 9 1.0 0.5 0.0
-0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o
C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match
Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone
Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 9 Slide 10
10 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich
Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City
would be playing water polo! Slide 11 11 1979 2003 Climate Change:
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar
Region NASA satellite imagery Source: Nasa
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
20% reduction in 24 years 20 24 1979 - 2003 11 Slide 12 Background:
the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising
Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and
Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 12 Slide 13
Comparison of Discoveries and Demand We need to consider
alternatives now 13 Slide 14 14 UK Gas Production and Demand Import
Gap Slide 15 15 Per capita Carbon Emissions Japan UK How does UK
compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2
than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? France
China 15 Slide 16 16 Carbon Emissions and Electricity 16 Slide 17 r
17 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries Slide 18 18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running
out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net
importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 Slide 19
19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable
Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each
year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but
is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as
a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until
mid 2020s Slide 20 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable Slide 21 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless
produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses
in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and
Ipswich Slide 22 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle
installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Slide
23 23 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area
required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But
energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
Slide 24 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and
Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity
needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from
methane from waste. Slide 25 25 Options for Electricity Generation
in 2020 - Renewable Slide 26 26 Options for Electricity Generation
in 2020 - Renewable Slide 27 27 Options for Electricity Generation
in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for
13500 houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Slide 28 28
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 29 29
Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and
must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear
station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new
coal station each year beyond 2018 Our Choices: They are difficult:
Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a
full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house
will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population
decreased household size Slide 30 30 Our Choices: They are
difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal?
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can
develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations
NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. Do
we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind
and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20
years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear
power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our
answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and
see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity
generation? >>>>>> Slide 31 31 Our Choices: They
are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on
around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from
countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with
this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more
substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North
Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish
to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in
decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the
attendant Security issues that raises. Slide 32 Background: the
evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness
Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community
How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 32 Slide 33 A Pathway to
a Low Carbon Future 1. Awareness 3. Renewable Energy 4. Offsetting
2. Technical Solutions 33 Slide 34 34 How many people know what 9
tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million over Norfolk. In the developing world, the average
is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? On average each person
in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody
made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought
he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797) Slide 35 35
Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a
washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over 100 a year
just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2.
10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party
balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 20 - 60+ kWh a year -
3000 balloons at a cost of over 6 per year Filling up with petrol
(~45 for a full tank 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one
hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family
car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as
heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1
Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the
Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya Slide 36 36 The Behavioural
Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity
consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any
given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6
or more. Education/Awareness is important Slide 37 37 Social
Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change Slide 38
Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us
Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the
Church and Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 38
Slide 39 39 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal
Energy Slide 40 40 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors
installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical
Solutions Solar Thermal Energy Slide 41 41 Responding to the
Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy 2007 2008 Slide
42 42 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less
than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well
for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney
exploiting passive solar energy from end of February Slide 43 43 S
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Low Energy
Buildings and PhotoVoltaics Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on
top floor Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 awarded by the
Carbon Trust. Slide 44 44 S Responding to the Challenge: Technical
Solutions Low Energy Buildings and PhotoVoltaics Heating Energy
Requirements are equivalent to 1 domestic size central heating
boiler. 80 0 35 0 Energy consumption ~ 20% of building of its size.
consumption as new in 2003 was reduced by further 57% by careful
record keeping, management techniques and an adaptive approach to
control. Slide 45 45 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical
Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still
expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. A church not
connected to grid e.g. Fishley, with services only once a week PV
would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage??????? Output
depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter
per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3700 kWh per year
Slide 46 46 ZICER Building Photo shows only part of top Floor Top
floor is an exhibition area also to promote PV Windows are semi
transparent Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays Poly-
crystalline on faade ~ 6.7 kW in 3 arrays Slide 47 47 Load factors
Fa ade (kWh) Roof (kWh) Total (kWh) 200426501940122051
200528401980922649 Output per unit area Little difference between
orientations in winter months Performance of PV cells on ZICER
WinterSummer Fa ade2%~8% Roof2%15% On roof ~100 kWh/ m 2 per annum
In Norwich, domestic consumption is ~ 3700 kWh per annum
>>> Need ~ 37 sq m Slide 48 48 All arrays of cells on roof
have similar performance respond to actual solar radiation The
three arrays on the faade respond differently Performance of PV
cells on ZICER - January Radiation is shown as percentage of
mid-day maximum to highlight passage of clouds Slide 49 49 Slide 50
50 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected
horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If
individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells
actually in shadow are affected. Slide 51 51 Use of PV generated
energy Sometimes electricity is exported Inverters are only 91%
efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient
typically less than 60% efficient Need an integrated approach Peak
output is 34 kW Slide 52 52 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the
Challenge: Technical Solutions Micro CHP plant for homes are being
trialled. Replace the normal boiler But there is a problem in
summer as there is limited demand for heat electrical generation
will be limited. Backup generation is still needed unless
integrated with solar photovoltaic? In community schemes explore
opportunity for multiple unit provision of hot water in summer, but
only single unit in winter. Slide 53 53 Other Renewable
Technologies Micro Wind Vertical Axis Mini Wind Slide 54 54 6 kW
Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish
Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind
turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>>
annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum Slide 55 55 Throttle
Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted
from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High
Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat
Pump Compressor Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils
buried in garden 1 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air
can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature
source between outside source and inside sink is as small as
possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as
electricity put in. Slide 56 56 Responding to the Challenge:
Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Images from RenEnergy Website 56
Slide 57 57 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing
heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In
2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average
>>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum 57 Slide
58 58 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Syphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kw Other Renewable
Technologies 58 Slide 59 59 Renewables Obligation: Renewable
Generation in UK Data as reported in ROC Register small amounts
were generated by small non-registered sites. biomass7.8% advanced
biomass0.10% Co-firing with fossil fuel 11.1% hydro < 20MW14.2%
hydro < 20kW0.014% micro hydro0.4% landfill28.3% sewage2.2%
waste0.014% offshore wind6.0% onshore wind30.0% small wind0.0031%
photovoltaics > 50kW0.0013% photovoltaics < 50kW0.0019%
wave0.0001% Proportion of electricity generated by each technology
2007 - 2008 If online Link to ROC_Register Co-firing with fossil
fuel 11% 59 Slide 60 60 biomass51.3% advanced biomass38.9% hydro
< 20MW45.9% hydro < 20kW44.4% micro hydro46.8% landfill62.6%
sewage49.3% waste20.0% offshore wind29.8% onshore wind26.4% small
wind10.2% photovoltaics > 50kW5.6% photovoltaics < 50kW9.1%
wave0.7% Load Factors 2007 - 2008 Renewables Obligation 2007 - 2008
60 Slide 61 61 Renewable Obligation Certificates: Support for
Renewables The Regulator OFGEM SUPPLIERS Trader and Brokers
Renewable Generator Notifies Regulator how much generated. Sells
ROCs to Trader Sells Electricity with or without ROCs Notifies
OFGEM of compliance -i.e. ROCs or pays FINE Supplier Buys ROCs from
Trader ROCs issued FINES recycled in holders of ROCs in proportion
to number held Because of recycling, ROCs have value greater than
their nominal face value 61 Slide 62 62 1.5p 1.8p per kWh Recycled
fines Potential Value of Renewable Generation 0.15p per kWh
Embedded benefits - less losses 0.43p per kWh Climatic Change Levy
Exemption 3.576p per kWh Face value of ROC 7.5 - 8.0p per kWh
Wholesale Electricity Price Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ 0.2p
0.5p per kWh Value of Renewable Generation ~13p per kWh Current Net
Value of Renewable Generation ~12.5p per kWh 62 Slide 63
Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us
Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the
Church and Community How Churches can Respond to Climate Change 63
Slide 64 64 Involve the local Church / Community The residents on
the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On
average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and
indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders
bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney
is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. Slide
65 65 Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps
partly powered by Mini Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other
islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles.
Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested
sea weed Involve the local Church / Community Slide 66 66 Involve
the local Church / Community The Broadsol Project Members of
community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time.
Significantly reduced costs Slide 67 67 Involve the local Church /
Community Provide independent and objective advice Explain why many
of the myths are wrong What happens when wind does not blow? It
uses more energy to build a wind turbine than it ever generates
Provide simple and understandable advice A tumble dryer uses 4
times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week
will cost over 100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit
over half a tonne of CO 2. Putting a lid on the saucepan save 90%
of energy required. Boiling that unnecessary cup of water emits 25
cupfuls of CO 2 Turn of standby on TVs, DVDs. They use more energy
while you are a sleep and each one could cost you 6 a year in
energy bills. Slide 68 68 Conclusions Global Warming will affect us
all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly
important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make
Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy
conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small
changes in behaviour It is as much about the individuals response
to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
Slide 69 69 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be
available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links
Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether
we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old persons room Conclusions Are you
up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC)
Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change
direction, you may end up where you are heading." Slide 70 70 Slide
71 71 Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door
Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15%
in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate
speeds can affect consumption by up to 10% New Vehicles: A Hybrid
Vehicle 71 Slide 72 72 Historic Trends: Freight Distance each tonne
has travelled has increased by: 223% since 1960 20% since 1990 Is
this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic
growth, energy security, and carbon reduction? 72 Slide 73 73
Social Issues: Lift Sharing Our congested roads are full of empty
seats The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is based in
Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52 million km shared each year.
Car travel (2006 statistics): 679 billion passenger kilometres 398
billion vehicle kilometres Average occupancy 1.71. Raising this to
an average of 2 would save 9.9 Mtonnes CO 2 each year Lift
sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social
exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport.
Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO 2
and reducing car use. 73